Anyone else concerned by this? (Hardy's future in Milwaukee)

[TooLiveBrew]

JJ was the only everyday player not to offensively slump in crunch time last season.

 

Not sure what you mean by this. Fielder sure hit fine for basically the whole season (save a slow start) & some of August. I'd be he's not the only counter-example, either.

[brewizard]

Not sure what you mean by this.

 

I apologize. I did the 'eye test' on that.

 

During the tense slide that cost Yost his job, JJ SEEMED to be the only one hitting. I didn't check the stats. I know nothing.

[TheCrew07]

Who exactly replaces Fielder?

 

Gamel profiles as a guy who might hit 20-25 HRs (something that profiles much better at 3B or RF rather than at 1B). He is not a good option at 1B IMO.

 

After that who is there to replace him in house?

 

Chris Errecart?

Anyone could replace his defense and there's no replacing his offense. Why would you build around a player who's 1) a Boras client, 2) will never give you a home town discount, 3) Makes every player on the infield and the pitcher worse? 1B gets a bad wrap, it's still important as just about every infield play will finish at 1B, it's just that usually 1B can scoop and catch a throw Fielder doesn't do on a consistent basis. Fielder moving on has always been inevitable, he turned down a Braun type deal last season and a solid argument can be made that he's too risky for the Brewers anyway as he's a 2 tool player (power and average) and given his weight fluctuation year to year. Fielder's play at 1B was so bad last season it's hard to even quantify how much of his offense he negated... his play alone made him one of the bottom 3 defenders in the league, not to mention the scoops and misplays that don't get factored by metrics into his defense but affect the other IFs and the Pitcher.

 

I agree that other players need to be locked in, but not players we have 2 prospects in the pipeline for and not someone who's better off being a DH for an AL team. The key here is to lock in players early like with Braun... the longer we wait the more expensive they get. I would think Yo is a prime candidate and I wouldn't seeing Parra bought out of a year or 2 of FA either if he gets through this season healthy and effective. Hart has an outside shot but it takes 2 to tango and he didn't take his offer last season either, but either way Hart is an interesting case.

 

I argued for locking up Hart throughout the season last year, but in rethinking my opinion recently it occurred to me that he may not have a position on the team. If Gamel were to get moved out to the OF, I'd much rather have Cain in CF than Hart, and there's no way I'm taking Hart over Braun. I've always been a Hart guy, I like that he's a heads-up player, an athlete, has some power, has speed, has a decent arm... but I'd take Gamel and Braun over him in the corners and Cain has the potential to be special in CF. If Gamel sticks on the IF then I wouldn't mind seeing Hart get locked up, but if it doesn't happen this season or next off season it's not going to happen.

[logan82]

Durham and Weeks also had insanely good Septembers. That is until Sveum took over benched Weeks and rode Durham until he broke.

 

I seriously doubt escobar's defense will be a full win better than hardy's

 

Count me in that camp as well. Unless Escobar comes in and plays better defense than every SS in the league, it is no more than half a win. Hardy isn't far behind the best defenders.

 

Who on our team would we trade for a top 5 stating position player if we would only have that player for a year? I seriously doubt we would trade Gallardo or Parra. That is why I think expecting much more than a Bush level pitcher in return is setting expectations to high.

[strawbossisevil]

I'm not saying we should build our team around Fielder. But I do almost wish we had traded Escobar instead of LaPorta. It would have made much more sense signing Hardy to a long term contract and go cheap at 1B with LaPorta (if we trade Fielder, quite a bit of the money used to sign him during his arby years could have gone toward Hardy's deal). I could be wrong, but I really think LaPorta could have stepped in and been close to Prince Fielder's equal (if you take into account offense and defense).

 

Now, we have 1B as a organizational weak point. I know Fielder is a bad fielder, and that having improved fielding will help make up for SOME of the difference, however if Fielder goes back to being the player he was in 2007, the amount of offense he provides is going to be hard to replace with guys like Gamel (who should stick at 3B), Nelson, or Errecart (None of whom I think are as good offensively as Laporta).

[Never Outhustled]

Gamel profiles as a guy who might hit 20-25 HRs (something that profiles much better at 3B or RF rather than at 1B). He is not a good option at 1B IMO.

Its possible to produce a great OPS without hitting 30 homers. The lure of Gamel is he has such an easy swing he might hit for great average. Scouts have claimed he has similarities to Boggs. Boggs had an OPS over 920 6 times. I doubt Gamel hits 360ish like Boggs in those years, but Gamel has more power.

[joepepsi]

I seriously doubt escobar's defense will be a full win better than hardy's

 

Count me in that camp as well. Unless Escobar comes in and plays better defense than every SS in the league, it is no more than half a win. Hardy isn't far behind the best defenders.

I'll pitch a tent in this campsite as well. Defense is an important aspect of the game, but it tends to be overrated. The difference between an average defender and a great defender isn't nearly as great as the difference between an average hitter and a great one.

[Thurston Fluff]

He doesn't have the flash to make highlight reel plays that he shouldn't have gotten to. He has exceptional reaction time which enables him to have great range, as most metrics would prove.

 

What do you mean by flash? Doesn't he have the ability to dive for a ground ball get up and throw it? Are his reactions limited to balls a certain distance away from him? Does his arm strength only work with throws at a certain distance? I just don't understand what flash others have in making plays look great that he can't make if he really is that much better at it than others.

 

 

JJ has put up several solid seasons now - something Billy Hall has never seemed to do.

 

JJ was left at one position something Bill Hall never had the chance to do. the one year he got to play his normal position all year he did as well as JJ.

 

JJ plays the most solid defense on the team.

 

See above statement.

 

 

JJ was the only everyday player not to offensively slump in crunch time last season.

 

not true

 

JJ has never been overpaid.

 

Not even the year he spent on the DL? Since this is his first year of arby he's one injury or slump away from his second year of being overpaid.

 

JJ doesn't employ Scott Boras.

 

Neither does Bill Hall

 

JJ always leaves his game on the field. He has never once embarrassed the organization or created any off-field controversy -- which means:

 

Ditto for Hall. Not sure what it has to do with anything since JJ's agent isn't about to give JJ's services away for free either.

JJ is a fan favorite. He brings people to the ballpark.

 

So does any number of players. I do not think there are a whole bunch of people out there saying hey lets go watch JJ play today. It's a concept I think is way overrated.

JJ has established himself as one of the top shortstops in the game and

 

He is good but there are several better. This debate is about whether he really is that much better than our own minor league player so maybe he isn't worth that much more that we should keep him at short just to make him happy.

JJ hasn't even peaked yet.

 

How do you know this?

[Baldkin]

JJ has put up several solid seasons now - something Billy Hall has never seemed to do.

Two. Two solid seasons. Same as Hall did in '05 and '06. After which he agreed to make room for the stud prospect (Braun) by NOT playing infield and moving to CF. Despite having two butchers with the glove on the infield (Braun and Weeks) and being a solid defender, he was the one who got moved to the outfield.

 

I'm playing devils advocate here, but it just shocks me that he'd come out and say something like that, and be given a total pass. Where as, when Hall comes out and says "Of course I want to play every day" he gets slammed for wanting to be traded.

 

As for "Going for the World Series" from time to time, that's what they did last year, but our second stud starter broke down in September, and that absolutely killed us come playoff time. I'd much rather the team compete for the playoffs every year by not trading prospects, giving them a shot, every year, to be hot for 15 games, and win the Series... than to wheel and deal and have horrible 2002 like down years.

[JJHardy7]

There's a long list of prospects who went bust, mostly on the pitching side... up until last year, Parra would've been included amongst them, as he just couldn't stay healthy.

 

I guess I just consider a guy like Manny to be a little bonus. He was drafted in the 26th round if I remember. Having guys drafted early in the draft developing into starters to me is the most important thing. It won't always work obviously, but getting a guy like Manny in the 26th round is a big win. We just need the pitchers we draft earlier to develop.

 

The main issue I see with JJ and Escobar isn't really related to those two players at all. The roster as it stands today needs JJ's offense. Now if Gamel, Salome, and Escobar himself (and maybe Cain, etc) develop and can hit at the big league level that may not be the case. If we can get an offense that 'doesn't need'/has other guys to step up, I'd be much easier trading JJ. I value Escobar's defense, but with the team as it is now I wouldn't like our playoff chances.

 

I also don't see any realistic way in which both players remain in the organization once Escobar is 'ready' for the bigs.

[endaround]

My guess is that this isn't an issue as Escobar will need two full year in AAA anyway. But I think people are really underestimating how much talent the Brewers have gotten from the farm system and how unusual that really is. The Brewers have 4 4+ win players in Braun, Hardy, Fielder and Gallardo. That's a huge amount. If Hart gets his form back he can join them. Thats 5 players at an All Star level. That just doesn't happen all that often. Counting on it happening all the time is dangerous.

[whizkid]

I guess I just consider a guy like Manny to be a little bonus. He was drafted in the 26th round if I remember.

 

Manny was a draft and follow, drafted low to attempt to be signed before the next draft. He was given high round, don't recall if it was 1st round, money to sign so not really that much of a bonus.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'll pitch a tent in this campsite as well. Defense is an important aspect of the game, but it tends to be overrated. The difference between an average defender and a great defender isn't nearly as great as the difference between an average hitter and a great one.

I have to disagree here. I shortstop with a solid glove and average range is going to save fewer runs than a shortstop with great range and a sloppy glove.

 

If (and these are hypothetical thrown out numbers) Hardy gets to 70 balls of 100, and makes 2 errors, but Escobar gets to 90 balls out of 100 and makes 5 errors, Escobar has been far more valuable.

 

The difference between a great shortstop and an average can be as much as one ball every 3 games. That's 50 or more per season. Even if each of those is a single (.44 runs), that's roughly 25 runs saved, or 2.5 wins.

 

Even if a guy gets to only 20 more balls than his counterpart, that's still 9 runs, assuming all those are singles.

 

Shortstop is one position where defense is most certainly not overrated, and is the most important position on the diamond, simply because of the sheer amount of plays that defender has the chance to affect.

[JJHardy7]

Manny was a draft and follow, drafted low to attempt to be signed before the next draft. He was given high round, don't recall if it was 1st round, money to sign so not really that much of a bonus.

 

I guess I'm not as concerned about the bonus and that money. My point is you need to be as accurate as you can be on your high picks (I know it's very far from a science). The Brewers have missed on some players early on (especially pitchers). The fact is Manny was drafted in the 26th round and he looks to be a #3 or #2 starter in the bigs. That's a good deal IMO. I understand what you're saying about the compensation though. I'm just saying from a talent level in the draft the Brewers don't have a lot of room for error. The core of this team was drafted early and they've done quite well there. If only they could've snabbed another pitcher or two, this team would be set. I'm also not referring to a 4+ player. I'm still worried about the depth at the backend of the rotation and in the bullpen. If we made some better picks, we wouldn't be forced to signing veterans that are a little bit more costly than producing your own.

 

If Escobar does provide the overall talent that Hardy has, it will have been an almost perfect scenario. I'll be sad to see JJ go, but the odds and the timing of everything really couldn't have been more perfect. It's just not something that probably should be expected.

 

EDIT -

 

I looked it up and Parra did get first round money (at least it was at that time). http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=194 He got a $1.55 million bonus after adding 10 mph to his fastball.

[Thurston Fluff]

My guess is that this isn't an issue as Escobar will need two full year in AAA anyway.

 

Totally agree. Even if he is readyish there is no need to rush him until he would regress if left to rot in the minors. Why start his clock early when we have a great one already? To me the debate is either about signing Hardy long term or if Escobar rips up AAA so well that he forces the Brewers to make a decision earlier. I don't think that will bee the case but if he does it can only be a good thing.

 

But I think people are really underestimating how much talent the Brewers have gotten from the farm system and how unusual that really is. The Brewers have 4 4+ win players in Braun, Hardy, Fielder and Gallardo. That's a huge amount. If Hart gets his form back he can join them. Thats 5 players at an All Star level. That just doesn't happen all that often. Counting on it happening all the time is dangerous.

 

I think we got totally lucky they all panned out when they did. The farm was so depleted they needed that many to pan out. Now that they have a solid roster and a quality farm they need fewer to pan out at a time. They also have more draft picks to get those fewer players in because they will be getting some compensation for those lost players. The time of greatest need for a high % of prospects to pan out was the early part of the decade. Now we need to supplement it with a steady stream not a flood.

[mletto157]

What do you mean by flash? Doesn't he have the ability to dive for a ground ball get up and throw it? Are his reactions limited to balls a certain distance away from him? Does his arm strength only work with throws at a certain distance? I just don't understand what flash others have in making plays look great that he can't make if he really is that much better at it than others.

 

Maybe abnormally gifted athletically would have been better to say than flash. Basically athletic ability; speed, reflexes, etc... Hardy is a great defensive player, he gets to a pretty good amount of balls, and has pretty good range - but he doesn't make the flashy plays because he doesn't have that freakish athletic ability to go along with his great reaction time off the bat. Escobar has that. JJ is a good-to-great defensive player. Escobar, as I said, is a once-in-a-generation type defensive player. That being said, Escobar will never develop the power JJ has. Can he make up for that with his defense, and developing the hitting like he did in AA last year? Time will tell...

[sbrylski]

JJ is a good-to-great defensive player. Escobar, as I said, is a once-in-a-generation type defensive player. That being said, Escobar will never develop the power JJ has. Can he make up for that with his defense, and developing the hitting like he did in AA last year? Time will tell...

 

But the point is he doesn't have to. He only has to be as good as J.J. minus the money saved, which could be as much as 3 wins less talent than J.J.

 

Its not Escobar verse Hardy, its Escobar and another 2-3-4 win player* verse Hardy.

 

*FA next offseason that we could give Hardy's contract to include John Lackey, Jason Bay, Brian Roberts, Chipper Jones, or Kelvim Escobar. Or we could lockup Fielder.

[And That]

*FA next offseason that we could give Hardy's contract to include John Lackey, Jason Bay, Brian Roberts, Chipper Jones, or Kelvim Escobar. Or we could lockup Fielder.

The problem with assigning 2-3 wins to an unnamed $15 mil player from the free agent market is evident in your list above. Lackey will probably be resigned, and if he isn't he might get more than $15 mil, even in the bad market to come. Brian Roberts already signed an extension and Chipper Jones probably will, too. Escobar didn't pitch last year. That leaves Jason Bay, who would theoretically replace Mike Cameron in the outfield. After replacing Cameron's offensive production with Bay's, and after allowing for the decrease in outfield defensive production by replacing Cameron's defense with Hart's (as well as switching Braun to RF), I don't know that it's a locked-in 2 or 3 win improvement. Obviously that's all just anecdotal based on the next free agent class, but the point would be the same in the future.

 

The Brewers could also just spend the ~$15 mil saved on Hardy for salary increases for guys already on the club, or a number of lesser free agents.

 

Hardy is a much better player right now than Escobar. It would take an overwhelming showing by Escobar in AAA to convince me that the Brewers should jettison one of the top few shortstops in the game in order to possibley upgrade elsewhere, save some cash and take a chance on another young kid.

 

The Brewers will have 2009 to get a better grasp of the situation. Like others have said, it's a wonderful problem to have.

[logan82]

At worst we have a solid replacement in AAA for either Weeks or Hardy in 2010 in case one goes down with an injury. I know people are scared off of draft compensation right now, but unless we would get something good in trade, it doesn't pay to get rid of either before we have to.

[pogokat]

Escobar isn't a once in a generation defensive wiz...in fact, Bp ranked Hardy as the better defensive player las year (obviously, looking at alcides AA stats). Truthfully, when talking about D plus bat, Hardy might be the best SS in the NL...sure, HRam brings the lumber, but Hardy is definitely better on defense...same with Stephen drew, jimmy rollins, etc...Hardy's not a throw away guy...had a 40 Vorp last year...he was equally as valuable to the team as fielde.r..and if his hitting improves, he could easily go higher...

 

escobar will never be that valuable, and frankly, i'd rather have wins in hand than wins in potential with the lineup we currently have...really

[clancyphile]

Escobar v. Hardy... much of this depends on Escobar's bat.

 

If he is a .360 OBP/.350 SLG player, then he's better utilized as a utility player. If Escobar is Henley Ramirez 2.0, then he needs to be at SS. But at this point, JJ Hardy's a known quantity - and a very positive known quantity.

[endaround]

Escobar is more like a .330/.350 player

[kramnoj]

It would take an overwhelming showing by Escobar in AAA to convince me that the Brewers should jettison one of the top few shortstops in the game in order to possibley upgrade elsewhere, save some cash and take a chance on another young kid.

 

Jettison seems like a loaded word there. I don't think anybody is advocating jettisoning Hardy. There is a belief that Hardy would fetch more in value, and that it would be better to explore the option of trading Hardy after 2009 to see what kind of value could be obtained, compared to letting Hardy become a FA and get a variable amount of value.

 

This analogy doesn't line up as well as I would like, but I see it as somewhat similar to the Orioles and Brian Roberts. The Orioles would have loved to trade Roberts and stock their farm system, but that trade wasn't out there. Eventually the Orioles decided to lock up Roberts rather than trade him away for less than they would like, or let him become a FA a year down the road. Obviously the Orioles didn't have an equivalent to Escobar looking to take Roberts place.

[Molitor4]

Well, the Indians got arguably the best hitting prospect in the game for half a season of Sabathia. I think J.J. would bring in much better than a #3 or #4 SP.

I think most would argue that laporta is not the best hitting prospect in the game he maybe a top 25 guy in the minors for hitting but there are more then a few better then him.

...Jeter isn't as bad as many stats people seem to think. He was basically an average defender last year at SS. He has typically had his worst years when he has had nagging injuries that don't make him miss a lot of games but really decrease his range. Of course, as he gets older, the chance of that happening will increase. But it's not like he'll have to move because he won't be able to field the position.

 

Also, there's a pretty solid chance Jeter will get his 3000th hit in 2011. I think there's basically no chance that happens in a uniform other than the Yankees. He may move to an OF position, or he way do a lot of time at DH, but he will almost certainly be a Yankee.

he may be average on balls he gets too but his range is way below average jeter is no longer a major league caliber defensive shortstop but he's to big of a baby to move.

 

(combined consecutive posts and shortened quoted material --1992)

[PepsiFanClubAlum]

Man, the more I read this thread, the more depressed I get. It seems like we're going to be doomed to having five year windows where we realistically contend for one or two seasons, and then the other three or four years are letting the youngsters mature before they inevitably leave.

We are kind of like a college team in that regard, most graduate and we need to invest in them. My biggest fear is that the pitching comes around in 2012 and we have no sticks. It is a tricky fate, but were looking good for the next couple years at least, so let's enjoy.