Anyone else concerned by this? (Hardy's future in Milwaukee)

[joepepsi]

My feeling is that we wouldn't get much in trade for Hardy unless we trade him by the trading deadline this year. What is reasonable to expect for one year of a guy? I would think nothing more than a Bush level pitcher if he is traded after the season.

I think Escobar would have almost the same value in a deadline deal. Don't want to turn this into a trade proposal topic, but if Toronto is shopping Halladay this July, they will be far more interested in Escobar. In other words, any team ready to chuck this season and get a jump on rebuilding will be interested in Escobar. Hardy, not so much. However, if the Brewers are stinking up the joint at the deadline and Escobar is tearing up AAA, then it may make sense to shop Hardy to a competitor. Most playoff caliber teams tend to have pretty shortstops though.

[TheCrew07]

They might be able to get a very good pitching prospect for him, most of the young arms I would have targeted have gotten hurt or signed extensions already. The pitcher might not be immediate help, but could figure in the mix in 10 or 11. It might be possible to snag a position player as well, it's tough to say.

[logan82]

Honestly it makes no sense to trade Escobar unless Hardy signs a long term contract. I think right now Hardy has more trade value, but after this season teams would only be trading for one year of Hardy and it makes no sense to trade much for a guy for only one year unless you feel you can resign him to a big deal. That limits our trading options. If Escobar is hitting well in AAA, I say trade Hardy by the deadline.

[monty57]

The important factors are:

 

-Whether to move a player to a different position, which doesn't seem to be a long-term option for either player. When Hardy made his "don't trade me, I've always wanted to be a Brewer" comment, I thought he might sing long-term and eventually move to 3B. It's looking less likely that this will happen. The probable scenario is that either he goes, or Escobar goes.

-How good the players are and will be. Hardy is probably a better overall player now, although the gap may close as Escobar develops

-How old they are and how many years the Brewers "control" them. Escobar wins on these counts

-How much they'll cost. Again, Escobar wins

-How much they'll net in a trade. This probably depends on who you are dealing with. A big money team in need of a SS or someone chasing a pennant this year would give their right foot to have Hardy. A more cost-conscious or rebuilding team would probably rather deal for Escobar.

-Finally, you have to look at where you see the Brewers this year. If they are expecting to compete, Hardy is their guy, and at this point that is obviously the plan. If they fall off early, he could be dealt if the deal is right

 

I think Melvin has a little more time to make a decision, as Escobar is fine sitting in AAA this year, and Hardy is not too expensive. By this time next year, Melvin will have had to decide whether he should trade one of the players or simply wait for the draft picks for Hardy. Before the Sabathia trade last year, I thought this offseason was going to be the one where a major shake-up occurred. Now it's looking more like that will be next year. Green/Lawrie should be nipping at Weeks' heels, and Escobar, Gamel, Salome, Cain and Gillespie will be ready to play. That's not to mention that we should finally be able to bring up some relievers from our system rather than over-paying for mediocre veterans.

 

With all the above mentioned players coming up from the minors, I don't think it's out of the question for us to sign Hardy, Yo and Parra long term (to go along with Braun), if that is the decision Melvin makes. Ir would simply free up money to re-allocate elsewhere if he decides to trade Hardy and play Escobar. If Melvin plays his cards right, we could have a good team for years to come. The current trend of signing elite players to long-term deals looks like it will continue, as both the players and the teams see the benefits involved. This should allow the Brewers to pick their "cornerstone" players and continue to build around them.

[giffted1]

Honestly it makes no sense to trade Escobar unless Hardy signs a long term contract.

It's an interesting situation. If we sign Hardy to a long term contract, Escobar's trade value falls because teams know we almost have to trade him. On the other hand, if we trade Escobar at his maximum value before locking up Hardy, Hardy's price goes up because his potential replacement is gone.

[TooLiveBrew]

What is reasonable to expect for one year of a guy?

 

Well, the Indians got arguably the best hitting prospect in the game for half a season of Sabathia. I think J.J. would bring in much better than a #3 or #4 SP.

[monty57]

Most playoff caliber teams tend to have pretty shortstops though.

 

But my wife would argue that Hardy would be prettier. Sorry, had to do it.

[Fatter than Joey]

I would explain to him how that guy got moved for a guy who had relatively no big league experience and was injured the last couple years.

 

A couple of things...

 

1.) It's no longer 1985

2.) Yount couldn't make the throw from SS any longer.

 

My feeling is that we wouldn't get much in trade for Hardy unless we trade him by the trading deadline this year. What is reasonable to expect for one year of a guy?

 

I think we could get good value for him. Especially to a team that could extend him -- but if the Brewers are tanking this year -- it may be smart to trade him sooner.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just stumbled across this article at THT by Sean Smith (he of the Chone projections), working in concert with BrewCrewBall's Jeff Sackman

 

TotalZone takes on the minors

 

Escobar rated out at a +22 for 2008, the best SS rating in the minors. I have to admit I'm not very familiar with TotalZone, though I like the work Smith does on the whole.

[sbrylski]

This is a no-brainer being clouded by emotion, IMO.

 

In [wins/salary * years], Escobar should destroy Hardy if J.J. is only here two more years or will cost $15M per after that. And their trade values would probably be about equal.

 

Of course, a little more risk in Escobar's bat than Hardy's. But given that Escobar derives so much of his value from his glove, and defense basically doesn't slump, the chances of him not being a good solution at a key position are slim.

 

Unless Escobar tanks in AAA this year with the bat, which may be possible, J.J. should be traded for something very nice next offseason.

[fondybrewfan]

I keep going back and forth so much on this issue.

 

Is Hardy at his higher salary, higher offensive value, lower defensive value, + the value recieved from an Escobar trade

 

greater than:

 

Escobar at his lower salary, lower offensive value, higher defensive value, + the value received from a Hardy trade

 

or greater than:

 

Keeping both and moving one to 2nd or 3rd

 

Honestly I don't know if Melvin could go wrong with either of the first two scenarios whereas the 3rd scenario is more debatable. I will probably be pissed off with whatever option he chooses because I love JJ but I also want to see some crazy Ozzie Smith plays out of Escobar. Part of me doesn't want to see Escobar showing up on Web Gems every night with another team.

[sheetswannabe]

Im sure Escobar is great at defense given his metrics. But does anyone have some clips of him playing? I would really like to see what this kid has.

[brewizard]

This is a great discussion but the way I see it:

 

Hardy ends up replacing Jeter in Yankeetown in 2010.

 

I hope not, but I just think that's what is written on the wall.

[kramnoj]

This is a great discussion but the way I see it:

 

Hardy ends up replacing Jeter in Yankeetown in 2010.

 

Do you mean after the 2010 season? That's when Hardy would be a FA and Jeter's contract expires.

 

If Cashman is still the GM, he has shown reluctance to trade for players that he knows will be a FA in a year or less anyway.

 

It's two years away, so that's a lot of baseball time, but Jeter isn't as bad as many stats people seem to think. He was basically an average defender last year at SS. He has typically had his worst years when he has had nagging injuries that don't make him miss a lot of games but really decrease his range. Of course, as he gets older, the chance of that happening will increase. But it's not like he'll have to move because he won't be able to field the position.

 

Also, there's a pretty solid chance Jeter will get his 3000th hit in 2011. I think there's basically no chance that happens in a uniform other than the Yankees. He may move to an OF position, or he way do a lot of time at DH, but he will almost certainly be a Yankee.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I think we have to realize that JJ didn't develop power overnight. Let's give Escobar some time to see if he can develop some power.

 

Honestly, if Escobar hits well this year, Escobar would be my choice. I love JJ, but the defense is just so much better and the price.

[tyguy20204]

Let Escobar play AAA in order to see if last year was a fluke or if it was evidence of real development on his part. Because of the inflated numbers of the entire Huntsville team, I have my doubts.

 

If Escobar has a good year in AAA, then deal Hardy this off-season if a lucrative return can be achieved. If Escobar has a poor year in AAA, then keep Hardy for 2010 or even try to extend him if the money's right (which, I admit, it probably won't be). Let Escobar continue to develop in AAA for 2010, then call him up if Hardy opts for free agency. Escobar is only 22, he can handle two more years in the minors. Remember this is if he doesn't have a solid season this year. If he isn't performing, he doesn't have a right to complain.

 

Like others have said, Escobar's value comes from his defense. He should not be moved from that position in any situation. Weeks, even at his worst, is currently a much better overall option at 2B, and his clock is already ticking. Bringing Escobar up to play 2B (even worse, 3B) would be moving sideways at best, while also increasing costs for the future.

 

By the way, am I correct in saying that Escobar has one more option after this year?

[brewerguy71]

Dont forget that power from a shortstop is not only a luxury, but its entirely possible to have a very good shortstop with little offensive production at all and still be a valuable asset to the team. The trade off is what the Brewers have right now, power coming from the position with defense that isnt really an asset at all. (I know, I know, Hardy has great defensive metrics...he fields what is hit to him and he has a good arm, so his defense is not a detriment, but it isnt adding value where you want value defensively.)

 

The ceiling for Escobar's power, if it develops fully, is a 15 - 18 HR type of year. I could care less if he hits 10 HR a year, as long as he plays the type of defense he is capable of. If he can hit .270/.330/whatever but make the pitching staff that much better because of his defense, he will already be more valuable than Hardy ever was in my book.

 

Teams strong up the middle defensively are championship level types of teams. Your corner guys can hit the HR's and drive in the runs and have average to bad defense.

 

I have no problems with the comments made by Hardy. If Escobar starts AAA on fire offensively its time to bring him up and deal Hardy for a good prospect package or that #2 starter they desperately need.

[logan82]

It isn't that Hardy fields everything hit to him. Most metrics show that he does that and has good range as well. He is one of the top 5 best fielding shortstops in MLB over the last 3 years.

[tyguy20204]

His range doesn't really pass the eye-test though. I'm skeptical of any stat that says he has exceptional range.

[Weirdos19]

Why not Hardy at SS and Escobar at second? Then if JJ leaves as a free agent, Escobar moves to short. We move Escobar and Hardy leaves, we look terrible.

 

I have no problem with JJ not wanting to move. He is good defensively and Escobar would be a gold glove quality second baseman. It would drive me nuts to move Hardy and have a bad defensive second baseman throwing Escobar's would be double plays into the third row.

 

And to anybody who compares this to Jeter not moving for Arod, this is way different. Jeter is the worst fielding shortstop in the majors, according to many people who do research on such things. Jeter not moving has hurt them every season since Arod has joined the Bombers. Very short sighted on his part.

[tyguy20204]

A transition from Weeks to Escobar would be moving sideways at best. Any defensive upgrade you'd gain by the move would be offset by the offensive downgrade. Essentially you'd be starting Escobar's clock for no reason.

[GormanHarvey]

No idea how it will all work out in the end, but in the mean time it sure is nice to picture Hardy to Escobar to Fielder DP's!

[thebruce44]

Keep in mind Melvin has gone on record as saying that position players fetch more of a return in the offseason than at the trade dealine.

 

If he is going to trade JJ or Escobar, something will go down next offseason most likely (and I think it will be JJ).

[giffted1]

A transition from Weeks to Escobar would be moving sideways at best. Any defensive upgrade you'd gain by the move would be offset by the offensive downgrade. Essentially you'd be starting Escobar's clock for no reason.

I'm not sold on this. Do we even know the value Escobar would have at 2nd defensively? I doubt there are too many cases of defensive wizards like Escobar playing second, because they usually end up at SS. I could see where having Escobar at second would allow Hardy to play in the hole more because Escobar will be able to make plays up the middle.

 

And offensively, the gap between Weeks/Escobar is smaller than Hardy/Escobar.

[pogokat]

"Of course, a little more risk in Escobar's bat than Hardy's. But given that Escobar derives so much of his value from his glove, and defense basically doesn't slump, the chances of him not being a good solution at a key position are slim. " I see this mentioned all the time---Escobar might be better than JJ on defense (debatable) but that difference isn't going to cover 100 to 150 pts. of OPS...I know there's the idea that we are emotionally attached to JJ, but truthfully, I think JJ's going to be the better player for the next 5 years, and since we are clearly in the playoff window right now, that's how the brewers should approach it.. The guy to be traded should be fielder...it's clear you can get a low average high obp guy with 30+ hr's a year pretty cheap right now, so why spend lots of money on him? I would guess their initial plan is to resign JJ and trade Escobar...simply because, from an offensive and defensive perspective, JJ is the second best player on the team...Fielder's likely going to be a heavy negative on defense by his late 20's, and JJ's increasing walk rate indicates he will be a better hitter long term than Corey Hart...which means, JJ is the guy to build around...especially since he has been so consistant the last two years. If I was Melvin, I'd let the year play out and then offer Hardy a 4 year 40 million extension if he plays at current level again...JJ's entering his age 27 season right now, and would probably be a decent bet to hit at a similar level in 28, 29, 30, and 31 years as well...I think he's easier to project than Fielder...who will probably cost more, and Hart, who we still have lots of questions about.

 

escobar, on the other hand, still has lots of questions to answer about his offensive potential. he really doesn't have much power and his Batting average last year was greatly inflated by a Babip that he's unlikely to reporduce. Escobar is probably going to be a .700 to .750 OPS guy in his peak years...but he could just as easily be Rey Ordonez for a few years first...he's a great prospct, because we are all hoping he's turned a corner...but it's really too had to project.

 

here's the dilemma: do you keep Hardy and try to contend year in and out, accepting that you are going to lose other players in the meantime, or do you clear house after 2009 and hope you bring back some good stuff...I think the brewers want to do something in between...they obviously plan on keeping some of the young all-stars, and frankly, now that Braun is locked up, Hardy should be next...he should provide more long term production than Fielder, hart, and weeks because of his defensive abilities...and frankly, his offensive abilities...also, since his skillset is so well rounded, it's not likely he's going to completely fall apart like those other guys...

 

So, I think they should trade Escobar---possibly at the trading deadline for Roy Halladay...or after the season for something more long term...