Anyone else concerned by this? (Hardy's future in Milwaukee)

[fondybrewfan]

I was also thinking about Escobar at 2nd. He crazy range would be very useful playing 2nd, although his cannon arm might go to waste a little more. If Rickie tanks again this year why can't Escobar play 2nd? His range would be very beneficial to Hardy as Escobar can cover the 2nd base hole a little more. If and when Hardy leaves, Escobar can move back to SS and Green or maybe even Lawrie can move to 2nd. If Rickie comes out and plays well this year than you can't exactly change his positions either, I am not sure what I would do if Weeks, Hardy, and Escabor all play well this year. If that were to happen obviously that would be a very good thing for the Brewers.

 

The Crew has had blocked prospects before and for the most part Melvin has done a good job in playing the right cards (Overbay and LaPorta immediately come to mind)

[strawbossisevil]

Why does he 'belong' there?

 

Because from what I understand (I've never seen him play) his defense at third makes Ryan Braun's defense at third look gold-glove caliber.

False. He gets to a ton more balls than Braun since unlike Braun he actually has the range to play 3B. Also, despite that range, his Fld Pct. was better last season than Braun's was in his year with Milwaukee. If Gamel were to simply repeat what he did last year, he'd be in the bottom 5 defensively in the league (although Gamel has been improving each year, so to assume that he won't continue to improve would be foolish). Braun was one of the worst defensive 3B in MLB history.

 

There is also the question of whether Gamel has the bat for 1B. I see him as a 20-25 HR guy. That's pretty solid at 3B, but that's pretty mediocre at 1st. Offensively, he'd be a huge drop off from Prince.

[Fatter than Joey]

I was also thinking about Escobar at 2nd.

 

2nd makes more sense than 3rd, but still -- it seems like a waste to me. I just don't think Hardy+Escobar as starters is an optimal situation for the Brewers. I certainly could see Escobar filling in for Weeks to get acclimated to MLB hitting, or if Weeks gets hurt -- but as a long-term solution Hardy+Escobar should not be everyday starters in the same lineup.

[PepsiFanClubAlum]

IMHO, Escobar was considered for the stretch run last year at 2b. They either didn't have the guts to do it or had too much foresight, however you want to look at it.

 

This year, if they give up on Weeks or Weeks gets hurt, Escobar, will be brought up to play 2nd.

 

In 2010 Escobar will be the SS, no doubt about it. He is Omar Vizquel all over again. He'll get to a ball a game that JJ or 90% of SSs wouldn't touch and he has a bigger arm.

 

Hardy will be dealt in the offseason, since that is when his value will be highest. If he agrees to playing 3rd for a season, then Melvin might take the run at the Series, with Prince and Hardy in their final year.

[joepepsi]

Most metrics put it like this: Hardy=above average ss. Escobar=excellent ss. The difference between above average defense and excellent defense is nearly negligible in terms of wins. Therefore it's down to offensive differences. This isn't even close. Hardy is vastly superior.

 

If the Brewers are in the playoff hunt at the deadline they should trade Escobar in a package for a pitcher. I'd like to see the future of the team built around Braun, Hardy, Gallardo, Parra, and possible Weeks.

 

Out of the current group of young "stars" in Milwaukee, Hart is the most replaceable. If they have to break up this group eventually, he and Prince seem the most likely to go.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I agree that Corey Hart will probably be the first of the group to be dealt, simply because corner outfielders are much easier to find, and the Brewers already have their cornerstone in Braun playing the other corner OF position.

The J.J./Escobar SS dilemma will more than likely be sorted out this season - if J.J. has another solid year, he'll all but price himself out of Milwaukee if he takes things to free agency (at this point why would he not?). If Escobar continues to show progress at the plate in AAA, he'll make it easy for management to trade Hardy for maximum value - i.e. pitching. At this point Hardy's the more valuable player overall because of his offense, but Escobar is superior defensively, and it wasn't too long ago that J.J. Hardy was viewed as a glove only SS prospect who had the potential to produce some offense. Escobar is superior athletically, and he has the tools to be a plus offensively.

Escobar's value is more to the Brewers than Hardy's, because he's under Brewer control alot longer than J.J. If Alicedes struggles this year in AAA, then the Brewers go into 2010 with Hardy still at short in his free agent year, and give Escobar another year of offensive development in Nashville. This option may be more attractive to the Brewers should Hardy become a Type A free agent (they got burned this last offseason, but the extra draft picks are still gold to small market clubs)

[joepepsi]

Escobar's value is more to the Brewers than Hardy's, because he's under Brewer control alot longer than J.J. If Alicedes struggles this year in AAA, then the Brewers go into 2010 with Hardy still at short in his free agent year, and give Escobar another year of offensive development in Nashville. This option may be more attractive to the Brewers should Hardy become a Type A free agent (they got burned this last offseason, but the extra draft picks are still gold to small market clubs)

I suspect your scenario is how it will play out.

[zzzmanwitz]

If he agrees to playing 3rd for a season, then Melvin might take the run at the Series, with Prince and Hardy in their final year.

 

Isn't next year only prince's 2nd year in Arby? Prince has 3 more years, including this one. He's a brewer until 2011. JJ's last year is next year.

[PlayerHader]

I would not feel at all comfortable giving JJ 5 for $50 mil.

 

Agree that Hardy is likely traded after this season.

[PepsiFanClubAlum]

Most metrics put it like this: Hardy=above average ss. Escobar=excellent ss. The difference between above average defense and excellent defense is nearly negligible in terms of wins. Therefore it's down to offensive differences. This isn't even close. Hardy is vastly superior.

I would agree with you at if we weren't talking about SS. Getting to a ball or two a game at SS is a big deal and that is the difference between above average and excellent.

 

Contracts aside, this would be a tough decision, contracts included, this is a no-brainer. I love JJ, but his time here is limited due to Escobar, small market economics and his desire to stay at SS long term.

[Invader3K]

If he agrees to playing 3rd for a season, then Melvin might take the run at the Series, with Prince and Hardy in their final year.

 

Isn't next year only prince's 2nd year in Arby? Prince has 3 more years, including this one. He's a brewer until 2011. JJ's last year is next year.

This is correct. Not to go way off topic, but I never got all the talk about trading Prince recently. We have him for three more years. No need to rush unless people feel he will really fall off production wise (which I doubt he will).

 

Anyway, I would love to see Hardy locked up long term. I just get the feeling he probably realizes his enormous value, and will test the market in order to get his huge payday. Whether that will be with the Brewers or more likely a larger market team remains to be seen.

[crewcrazy]

I was very wrong on what kind of player Hardy was going to turn into, and now that he's at his current level, it's safe to say I wish I could watch him in a Brewers uniform for the next decade. It's probably not going to happen, though, so I guess the best I can hope for is that he either brings back an attractive package in a trade or he at least nets the Brewers a first round pick (while also staying the heck away from the Cubs, Cards, or Astros).

 

Still, if something could be worked out that would buy out a year or two of free agency, I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Hardy for that time and maybe dealing Escobar mid-season much like they did with LaPorta last year. I know dealing away top prospects is a bad habit to get into, but if the opportunity is there for the taking, I wouldn't mind another crack at the playoffs, especially since I'm not that sold on Escobar's ability to make a trade look really bad from the Brewers' perspective (I'm more worried about LaPorta in that regard).

[joepepsi]

Most metrics put it like this: Hardy=above average ss. Escobar=excellent ss. The difference between above average defense and excellent defense is nearly negligible in terms of wins. Therefore it's down to offensive differences. This isn't even close. Hardy is vastly superior.

I would agree with you at if we weren't talking about SS. Getting to a ball or two a game at SS is a big deal and that is the difference between above average and excellent.

So you're saying an excellent ss would field162-324 more balls a season than an above average ss? I don't see how that could possibly be true. There just aren't that many more chances available.

 

I don't even know who is considered an excellent defensive ss anymore. I guess Cesar Izturis is considered a wizard with the glove. He played 130 games at ss last year, Hardy 146. If you add up their putouts, assists, and errors, Hardy touched the ball about 85 more times than Izturis.

[RobDeer 45]

This is a really tough one. I guess what the Brewers have to do is figure out who they are going to build this team around. If they pick Hardy as one of the guys then keep him at SS and trade Escobar. If they feel like he's not as valuable and there won't be much drop off when replacing him for a cheaper player then that asnwers that question.

 

Has there ever been any talk abouit him at 2nd? I just don't see Weeks pulling it together (even though I'm cheering for him like crazy).

[Tbadder]

Right now I'd say we should move Weeks after this year with the thought of putting Escobar at second. Escobar's extreme range should help out Fielder tremendously. I like Hardy plenty, but I'm betting when all is said and done Escobar will be the best defensive shortstop in the history of the Milwaukee Brewers. For an organization that struggles turning out pitching prospects, players who play elite defensive should considered premium players. Unfortunately, the Brewers are exactly the kind of team that has to continually trade 26 to 29 year old players who are hitting their prime because of financial constraints.

 

That said, I'd rather have Hardy go via the trade because he's gonna be a very, very rich young man. Weeks will always be affordable.

[endaround]

I think people don't fully realize how good Hardy is right now. He was by far the best Brewers position player last year with a value of $22.2m ahead of Cameron and Braun who were basically tied at $18.5m. $15m a year for him would be a great contract (depending on length of course). The question is would that money be better spent on Hardy or somewhere else and allow Escobar to take over in 2011 (I don't see Escobar doing well enough in AAA to allow the Brewers to waste a year of Fielder and Braun together in 2010. In many was the future is now but thats another topic).

[TheCrew07]

Hardy is more valuable offensively today, but that doesn't mean they won't be close in the future. Instead of looking at situations like this in the current context, try looking down the road and making all of the pieces fit. Money said it best, who thought Hardy would develop as much power as he does? Escobar is trending upwards, there's no way to know with any reasonable amount of certainty what's going to happen with him offensively.

 

I understand that there's a general consensus amongst the sabermetric community of 2 ish wins (20 runs) either way for defense, and I agree the upgrade from Hardy to Escobar isn't much, but it's hardly neglible.

 

I missed Mauer as a 2010 FA, I don't think the Cubs will resign Ramirez and I'm not sure he'd be valued more than Hardy . Mauer absolutely, and there's no way he resigns with the Twins, so unless a trade and sign happens like with Santana, Mauer will be the marquee position player on the market. I didn't give serious consideration to Pujols, Berkman, and Youkilis becoming FAs as they play for teams that can/will spend money. I was thinking Hardy vs Ramirez and Hardy would be the best SS in the AL, the Yankees may have an opening, and Ramirez will be 33. Now that I think about the situation with CHC more, it's not like they have better/cheaper replacement in their system for him, so maybe they will resign Ramirez. At any rate, Mauer is certainly more valuable than Hardy, my bad for missing him.

 

edit. How many times does the organization have to say that Hardy doesn't want to move and they are unwilling to move Escobar off of SS because of his skillset? These 2 players will not exist on the same team unless Weeks goes down with an injury. This is the 4th time that I recall Melvin talking about it in print or on television... Also 5 years for 50 seems low to me as endaround just pointed out, he might sign a 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 deal or something similar but the yearly average is going to be 12+ for any contract he signs so for 5 years the absolute bare minimum would be 60, but probably more than 70, even if the economy stays where it is.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't even know who is considered an excellent defensive ss anymore.

Top-3 rated SS by the 2009 Chone defensive projections:

Adam Everett: +19 (not considered as good as he once was iirc)
Craig Counsell: +12
Troy Tulowitzki: +11
Omar Vizquel: +11 (still!)

For reference's sake, Hardy is at a +1. Izturis (+7) falls in a second tier of guys around a +6 to +9 (Eric Bruntlett, Chin-lung Hu, John McDonald, Jack Wilson, Erick Aybar, etc.)

[Ennder]

Escobar put his hand on the ball more in the minor league season last year than any major league SS did in a full 162 games. He really is supposed to be special defensively. Adam Everett comes to mind because I don't really think Escobar will be much of a hitter.

[Thurston Fluff]

From everything I've heard or read Escobar is a once in a generation defensive shortstop. If I was the Brewers and wanted JJ to move even if it meant he wouldn't stay past 6 years I'd sit him down and tell him a story about this shortstop who hit 35 hr, hit for a .270 average and and OPS of .899. All this while playing a more than respectable defense and was the team MVP. I would explain to him how that guy got moved for a guy who had relatively no big league experience and was injured the last couple years. I would explain to him that move was made because that rookie had immense potential and was a better shortstop defensively. I would tell him sometimes the really good teammates need to sacrifice their own self for the betterment of the team. I would explain to him since he didn't have a problem when the shoe was on the other foot he needs to sack up and deal with being a third baseman for a year or two if and when the time comes.

 

The above statement is based on the assumption that Escobar really is that good and can continue to improve his offense.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would explain to him since he didn't have a problem when the shoe was on the other foot he needs to sack up and deal with being a third baseman for a year or two if and when the time comes.

 

Except that Hardy isn't under salary control by the Brewers beyond 2010, upon which time he can sign a huge contract at SS somewhere else & tell you to pound sand.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

It seems like not many people in this discussion have much confidence in Escobar's bat playing at the big league level. For argument's sake, let's say he is an average offensive SS, which, without looking at his stats and just going by gut feeling, I believe he can be. With his gold glove potential defense, would he be worth more or less wins than JJ, an above average defensive SS and a really, really good offensive SS?

 

This is one difficult decision to make. Sometimes I'm glad I'm not a GM. This is one of those sometimes.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure about worth in terms of W-L, but a SS that saves as many runs as Escobar does & can be an average hitter at the position carries tremendous value, and I'd have to guess more than J.J. on balance

 

I think fans that primarily follow the MLB club (like me) are only beginning to understand just how good Escobar is defensively. He's not just better than Hardy... more & more it sounds like he blows J.J. out of the water (which imo is saying something)

[logan82]

My feeling is that we wouldn't get much in trade for Hardy unless we trade him by the trading deadline this year. What is reasonable to expect for one year of a guy? I would think nothing more than a Bush level pitcher if he is traded after the season.

[JJHardy7]

My feeling is that we wouldn't get much in trade for Hardy unless we trade him by the trading deadline this year. What is reasonable to expect for one year of a guy? I would think nothing more than a Bush level pitcher if he is traded after the season.

 

I disagree. You could move him for a lot more than that. The problem is balancing the current team and the future. If the Brewers traded him at the deadline in Hardy's last arby year, they'd still get more than what you have here. JJ is a top 5 SS and if a playoff type team needed a guy for the stretch you could have a nice haul.