Anyone else concerned by this? (Hardy's future in Milwaukee)

[paul253]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/40935277.html

 

Not so much the part about Escobar, but that quote from Hardy. ""If the Brewers want to use him, I feel like I'll still be playing shortstop somewhere," Hardy said. "Just not with Milwaukee. There's nothing I can do about it, so it's one of those things I don't worry about. But no, I don't see myself moving (positions) anytime soon.".

 

That quote makes Hardy seem completely unwilling to change positions, which means more than likely this is either his last year in Milwaukee, or Escobar is going to be traded. I personally don't like either option, as I don't think you'd get enough value in trading Hardy, but I also think you need guys like Escobar, Gamel, and Salome here for the next few years to keep payroll down. Personally, I dont see why Hardy is so opposed to moving to third base. Whats really the difference to him if we sign him to a 4 year, $30 million deal to play short or sign him to a 4 year, $30 million deal to play third? I don't buy this "his value is not as good as a third basemen" argument. His value to who? His value to us would go up because he fills a position of need while at the same time allowing our top prospect to play. Meanwhile, if his salary is the same for either position, how is his "value" any lower? Its not like he can't switch back to short if he wants to leave. The only other option I see is moving Escobar to second, but that would mean another position controversey in probably two years when Lawrie is ready.

 

Edit: Clarified title. Please state thread topic in the title to avoid vagueness. - Toby

[RU Rah Rah]

When I say the title of this thread, I thought it was going to be about Kendall saying that Gallardo was going to win 3 Cy Young awards.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't blame him at all for not wanting to move. Arguably his greatest attribute is his defense, why would he want to move? It would certainly hurt his value as most of his numbers would be pedestrian for a 3rd basemen. For that reason it is probably pretty unlikely that the Crew would ever consider signing him to an extension to play 3rd. To Hardy he should do everything he can to maximize his value for his next contract, and he stands to make far more money playing SS than he does playing 3rd.

 

Given the Escobar situation I find the odds of Melvin signing Hardy to a long term extension to be between slim and none unless Escobar is traded. If there is going to be no extension with the Crew it would be stupid for Hardy to move to 3rd. Even if his 2nd team signs him as a SS rather than a 3rd basemen he would still probably get less money although I have no facts to back that up

[SeriesFinale]

I don't blame him at all for not wanting to move. Arguably his greatest attribute is his defense, why would he want to move? It would certainly hurt his value as most of his numbers would be pedestrian for a 3rd basemen.

Well, compared to our current options...

 

I'd really like to see JJ with this team for a long time to come and think him and the Brewers could really use each other in terms of on-the-field success in the next couple years while we still have everyone together.

[GormanHarvey]

 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 2007 Brewers 151 592 89 164 30 1 26 80 274 40 73 2 3 .323 .463 .277 2008 Brewers 146 569 78 161 31 4 24 74 272 52 98 2 1 .343 .478 .283 [/pre]I don't think I would call these numbers "pedestrian" for a 3rd baseman. I see your point though. To me it seems like more of a pride thing combined with the fact that Hardy's numbers are pretty dang good for a SS. He knows he is above average defensively and as steady as they come in combination with the fact he is only 26 and coming into his prime make it a pretty tough pill to swallow to be asked to move from the position he loves and has worked so hard to have for a top prospect that has yet to prove his self at the MLB level. I would hate to see them lose either one of them. I hope when push comes to shove that Escobar is as good as advertised and Hardy takes one for the team and moves to 3rd. I think he would be an unbelievable 3rd baseman.

 

(edit: chart prettification --1992 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif)

[homer]

Too much talent is never a problem. This will be a very telling year for Escobar. If he can put up decent offensive numbers and show more plate patience then Hardy needs to be traded for some pitching. His value relative to his salary is really good for any team right now. I think everyone was resigned to the fact that the Brewers wouldn't be able to keep their core together for more than three or four seasons. Hardy is just the first one to go.

 

Now having said that, if they trade Escobar and sign JJ long term I won't be all that upset but one of them will have to go.

[BrewCrewRising]

The fact that JJ is 26 and one year away from his magical year of 27 (I think that's a player's best year statistically), and that Alcides is thought to be a year away from coming up bothers me in terms of imperfect timing. I can imagine the Crew trading JJ in the offseason and him going somewhere else. I like JJ. I don't think he's irreplaceable, but I like that he can flash occasional power, but generally be a consistent hitter and have decent d. I'd like to see him around a few more years.

 

But at some point, I think the Brewers have to make decisions about what players to build around, and I think given their payroll constraints, they are going to have to concentrate on keeping Braun (achieved for the most part I guess), Gallardo, and maybe another player. I don't suspect that JJ is a must-have for the future. I like him a lot, but he's a player you can trade, and Escobar seems promising.

[Ennder]

Hardy is one of the 5 best SS in baseball right now, I wouldn't move if I were him either.

[JJHardy7]

Personally, I dont see why Hardy is so opposed to moving to third base. Whats really the difference to him if we sign him to a 4 year, $30 million deal to play short or sign him to a 4 year, $30 million deal to play third? I don't buy this "his value is not as good as a third basemen" argument. His value to who?

 

I think if they paid JJ like he's a top 5 SS and then moved him to 3B my guess is he'd be fine with that. If they pay him like an average 3B, there's no way he should sign an extension. I do think some people are failing to realize JJ's talent in Milwaukee. How many players do the Brewers currently have that are top 5 at their position? I love Escobar and I've seen him play. I just think the idea of trading JJ and Escobar comes in and the world is fine is wrong. The team can't lose one of their power hitters and lack offensive talent (my guess is Escobar will be fine in the long-run, but he still may lack power the next year or two) at 3b (if Gamel doesn't stick), SS, CF (Cam gone after next year), and C (Salome could produce, but there are still questions about his defense) and expect to compete. Getting pitching for Hardy would be great, but Gamel, Salome, and Escobar have to come up and two of them need to hit as soon as they get here. I worry this offense will be built too much on Braun and Fielder with little else around them.

[Invader3K]

Hardy is a tremendous shortstop, probably one of the best in the Majors. I don't blame him for not wanting to move. If he was a hack with the glove, it could be understandable wanting him to move...but he's not at all. He hits for a decent average and has good power for a middle infielder. I would love to see him locked up for the next several years. Unfortunately, I fear the Brewers will be unwilling or unable to pay him a decent contract.

[Mass Haas]

Hardy is one of the 5 best SS in baseball right now, I wouldn't move if I were him either.

He'd be the best shortstop in the American League today. He's played nothing but shortstop since he was four years old. His statements make perfect sense. He's set to break the bank in '11. Hopefully Doug maximizes return in trade, because we've seen what can happen to "hoped for" draft pick compensation.

[fondybrewfan]

If I had to pick 3 of our core players to keep it would certainly be Braun, Hardy, and Gallardo. So trade Hart & Fielder for some pitching. That doesn't answer the question of what to do with Escobar though.

 

A GG SS is probably more valuable than a GG 3rd basemen simply because SS's get more opportunities and by putting a player like Escoabar who has incredible range at 3rd you are kind of reducing the benefits of that range. It is a tough decision and I wouldn't want to be the one to make it.

 

But I imagine that if Escobar continues to improve offensively this year the return for him would be far greater than any return we would get for Hardy because Hardy makes more $ and is closer to FA.

[paul253]

I believe the Brewers would be willing to pay him, especially if he moves. They can't keep replacing all their veterans with young guys and expect to compete more than once every 5 years. I don't see Fielder, Weeks, or Hart in Milwaukee long term, which means they should have enough money to sign Hardy to a long term deal paying him $7-$8 million a year. In a few years, Hall and Suppan's mammoth contracts will be off the books, and Fielder will probably be gone, freeing up even more money.

 

Also, I don't see much a of drop off for him defensively moving to third. The knock I've heard on his defense now is his lack of range, which wouldn't be a problem if he plays third base. And if you look at his number offensively, I'm sure the Brewers would love to have that at third base compared to what they've had the last few years. This would allow Gamel to move to first or the outfield where he belongs.

[JJHardy7]

This would allow Gamel to move to first or the outfield where he belongs.

 

Why does he 'belong' there? I love JJ. He's been my favorite player for a long, long time. I hate to say it, but the best situation for this team in the long-term is for Escobar and Gamel to just tear the cover off the ball and play SS and 3B. Will that happen? Not sure, but this constant talk of Gamel isn't a 3B just doesn't make sense to me. Let's worry about it when we have to. Gamel can stick at 3B. It's all a matter of patience. If you need him this year, then he may have to move positions. Gamel has had his share of errors and from what I've seen it's because he does 1) have range and gets to some balls that some can't and 2) they've been throwing issues. I wanted Braun to stick at 3B, but I think Gamel is better than Braun at 3B today. Now if you have Gamel, Escobar, and Hardy fighting for two spots, one has to be moved.

 

Like I said in my other post I worry about losing JJ's offense. The more time that goes by without an extension leads me to believe he won't be in Milwaukee long-term. If that's the case, we have to hope some of our prospects can fill that void over the next few years. Gamel could be a big part of that.

[endaround]

If the Brewers are going to pay $15m for a 3B, instead of keeping Hardy they should pay $15m for a true 3B. Thats the whole point. An .820 OPS 3B isn't a $15m player.

[bobbledude25]

The only concern in the article is when he said Escobar is a Scott Boras client

[paul253]

Why does he 'belong' there?

 

Because from what I understand (I've never seen him play) his defense at third makes Ryan Braun's defense at third look gold-glove caliber.

If the Brewers are going to pay $15m for a 3B, instead of keeping Hardy they should pay $15m for a true 3B. Thats the whole point. An .820 OPS 3B isn't a $15m player.

 

I don't think there is anyone I'd pay $15 million a year to play third base in Milwaukee except maybe David Wright, and I don't think he is coming. Hardy won't command nearly that much, and if he does....see you later J.J. When you consider what you're going to pay Hardy, you have to look at the alternatives and for third base there arent that many alternatives that would come to Milwaukee. More than likely instead of ending up with a good, true third basemen, you are going to end up with yet another platoon of guys like how we've thrown Russel Branyon, Bill Hall and Mike Lamb out there, trying to convince ourselves that these players are fine. Then maybe a year or so after Hardy would leave, someone like Taylor Green is going to come along, but he's not likely to hit for above average power for a third basemen, so now you have even less power with Green and Escobar as opposed to Hardy and Escobar.

 

Instead of worrying about what kind of numbers someone is supposed to have based on what position he plays, why not just put together the best lineup you can with the available resources. What difference does it make if your #4 hitter plays first base or second base? We can't just go out and find a good third basemen. If we could have, we would have done it 5 years ago. Moving Hardy to third would be an offensive upgrade over what we've been throwing out there the past few seasons and allows you to keep your top prospect.

 

I do understand Hardy's stance, but I hope Milwaukee makes it worth his while to stay and move to third. I don't see any better, realistic solution. There will be so good players at third base next off season, but Beltre, Jones, and Glaus are all older than Hardy and may all command more money. I'd rather just sign Hardy long term than take a chance on Glaus or Beltre.

[Cracked Bat Collector]

Do not move Hardy, big big mistake. Escobar will not have near the bat Hardy has. I'd be extremely angry if they trade Hardy to make room for someone who's unproven. Hardy, as mentioned, is one of the top shortstops in the game. I'd flip Escobar for some pitching while his stock is high.

[RU Rah Rah]

With 3B and (somewhat?) 2B being so unsettled, it seems as though there should be a way to play -- and pay -- both Hardy and Escobar. I'd hate to see JJ dealt and then maybe have an infield of: temporary void (3B), legitimate potential (Escobar at SS), unrealized potential (Weeks at 2B), and free-agent-to-be (Fielder at 1B). That would be a mess.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

The only concern in the article is when he said Escobar is a Scott Boras client

That was something I was going to bring up too.

 

Escobar has to keep getting better at hitting, but this might turn out to be a sticky situation. You can't blame JJ for not wanting to move, and you can't blame for the Brewers for not wanting to move Escobar with a great glove.

 

It just stinks that this team has other flaws, 3B and/or 2B(who knows about Rickie) and two of the better players on the team will be SS. I just have a bad feeling about how this is going to turn out.

[giffted1]

I've come to terms with the fact that we can't keep everyone. I think bulding a core around Braun, Hardy, and a pitcher (Gallardo or Parra) for the foreseeable future is the way to go. Things do line up quite well when it comes to giving JJ an extension. He'll reach free agency just as Suppan and Hall come off the books. Trade Escobar for pitching and lock up Hardy.

[craigharmann]

The only concern in the article is when he said Escobar is a Scott Boras client

That was the part that stood out to me. I don't blame JJ for saying what he said. It's a good problem to have 2 excellent SS. You know what you've got in JJ, he's solid, not flashy, defensively, and a good hitting SS. Esco, you've got a great fielder, and an unknown for hitting. I'd trade Esco, and sign JJ long term.

[TheCrew07]

This wasn't anything new, it's all been in print before. My question is this... yes in a perfect I would love to resign JJ and Prince, but realistically where is that money going to come from? This is no different than people thinking the Brewers had a chance to sign CC, the 100 million was a decent offer, but the team and many of us here knew that he was never going to take less than a similar contract to what Santana got. To be successful the Brewers are always going to have a mix of vets and young kids, that's the only way to make a 90 million payroll work. Why does youth automatically equal a crappy MLB team? How bout them Rays last season, the Tigers a few years ago, and so on? I say again, losing Hardy or Fielder isn't a 1 for 1 swap of players. The offensive production might slip at 1 position, but there's potential for gains at every position we currently have a hole in the roster for, the team has the potential to be better offensively than it is today. At C Salome/Lucroy would out produce Kendall this year, at 3B we have Gamel/Green, at 2B we have Green/Lawrie, in CF we get younger/cheaper with Cain who's a true 5 tool prospect. Finally at SS we can plug Escobar to fill the void left by Hardy, it's just difficult to pigeon hole his offensive production at this time, though the most interesting comment to me personally hasn't been discussed, Money's quote about "Who expected JJ to hit 25?" is spot on, you really never know... The only spots we don't have a very solid prospect in waiting to fill holes is the starting rotation and 1B. 1B could maybe addressed by sliding Gamel over if he doesn't stick at 3B or via trade, the team has some options there as well.

 

It's very reasonable to trade for starting pitching, runs prevented are just as valuable as runs created... the less runs the team gives up, the less runs they need to score. I'm a big believer in building from the pitching staff on down and while the rotation has some nice depth, it's pretty ordinary talent wise.

 

The whole "unestablished" cop out really gets under my skin, how is it reasonable to hold a lack of MLB experience against any prospect? Every single player in the game was once "unestablished". There is no reason to hold prospects down when they are ready for the next challenge, there's only so much any player is going to learn in the minors. It's tough to see our favorite players walk, Hardy is mine, all of my memorabilia is Hardy related, but it's part of being a Brewer fan in the current ecomonic environment of MLB.

 

Gamel's defense is not as bad Braun's was. there is a finite segment of the population on this site that keeps repeating it that statement as fact even though it isn't true. Gamel may not stick at 3B as he obviously needs work, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that he can and it's all been very well documented on the Minor League forum. Many people in the organization believe Gamel can stick, and I'll take Don Money's opinion over people on this site who've never seen these guys play 100 times out of 100.

 

If the team is going to start locking it's young position players then they are going to have to quit overspending on the bullpen and other marginal talent. It's a great idea to lockup Hardy long term, but it's just not realistic, they aren't going to be able to afford 12-15 million with escalators for the duration of his contract. It doesn't make sense to spend that money when the rotation needs better talent and when 2 SS prospects are nearing MLB, Escobar will be in AAA and Brewer will likely start in AA for 2009.

[RightFieldCoder]

Hardy won't move because it will cost him too much money. Even if we pay him now, in 4 years he'll be a 31 yo slightly above average 3B who hasn't played SS in four years. He'll make a lot more money if he sticks to SS. Heck, Omer Vizquel was a starting SS last year. If Vizquel had moved to 3B when he was 27, I doubt he would have been in the league last year.

 

Here's an outside suggestion. A-Rod was a better defensive SS than Jeter, but it was A-Rod that moved positions because Jeter was already established on that team. Why not try the same and see if Escobar would move to allow a slightly less defensive SS (but still a MLB caliber one) stay at his position?

[endaround]

Arod's bat could play DH, Escobar's bat will struggle to play MI. As to Hardy just getting power, Hardy had an ISO of .149 as a 20 year old in the SL when the SL was a pitcher's paradise. As a 21 year old Escobar had an ISO of 106 in a much more neutral SL. The Brewers did really screw up how they brought Hardy up, bascially killing a year of service time to save a few dollars.