Olney says Gagne is most valubale chip on the market

[Tedaldtada]

Let me start this off by saying I checked the first five or so pages of trade threads and could not find a Gagne one. Also, Texas seems to have made it clear that Gagne will be the one to go, not Otsuka, based on his contract, age, etc, so I started a new thread for Gagne talk only.

 

We all know DM is very comfortable dealing with the Rangers and I'm sure the Brewers would love to add Gagne. So what would it take to get him? Buster Olney thinks he will be the most 'valuable' piece on the summer market. He said this on Saturday nights' BBTN.

 

Here's my proposal:

 

Gagne

for

Bush

Aquino

Brad Nelson or TGJ

 

I don't know if this would be enough to outbid other suitors, but my thinking was the Rangers would jump on the chance at a pitcher of Bush's caliber. What other contenders out there can offer a starter of the quality of Bush or Vargas in a trade? That fact might help us out the most. One of those two will be traded during this month. They know that Yo needs to be in the top 5. They will not let him sit in the bullpen long.

 

I also want to keep TGJ. He may not be his dad but he will end up being an All Star at least once, I just know it. I would part with him at chance for Gagne though.

[trwi7]

I think Gagne is more likely to be moved than Otsuka as well but it's not because of age. Gagne is 31 and Otsuka is 35.

 

That team just needs a complete tear down and rebuild so they should consider moving everyone if the right offer came along.

 

I doubt they would trade Gagne for that, they'll probably want prospects. I would give up Inman and Gwynn if it could net us Otsuka.

 

Gagne I'm not sure what I would give maybe Dillard, Gwynn and Cain

[UWRyan428]

I would imagine, with Gagne's contract that has performance incentives, he would only go to a team that would guarantee him a chance to close, or, at the bare minimum, be the exclusive set-up guy. Perhaps, we could go T-Bow/Gross/Parra, but that seems like quite the mortgage on next year and beyond (excluding the Southern Belle) for a run at the pennant this year, especially given Gagne's history of injury.

[Boy Jeenius]

Gammons said the other night that the Rangers are holding out for a "Top Prospect", and one GM told him that it looks like they will get it, because some contender will need Gagne down the stretch. So for us that probably means Inman or Jeffress.

[dadofandrew]

I would not think Gagne would get you a top guy, maybe a solid, good prospect. I guess it depends on how many bidders and his health status.

[endaround]

Gange's health will likely screw up his compensation value so the Rangers basically have to trade him because draft picks are far from assured.

[TheCrew07]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I have a real hard time giving up pitching prospects with the relative lack of success the Brewers have had developing them over the years. Trade all the position players you want, but please keep the young pitching prospects. I want no part of any deal that includes young pitching coming back. The kid may flame out due to injury, or he may be a very good 2 or 3... you just don't know.

 

The are in the position where if they are going to compete it doesn't make sense to run the Glendon Rusch types out there anymore. Peavey has pointed out in the past that you get draft compensation if a player leaves in free agency. However you have wait a year to draft a kid and sign him, and even then we're talking about High School arms in the sandwich round, either starting in Arizona or Helena, that are easily 5 years away. It's just too difficult to replace pitching depth when you aren't able to compete and overpay for the top end free agent pitchers.

 

I would hate to be on the other end of a Franklin for Villy deal.

[aracko]

If you need a BP arm, it would make the most sense to call up Parra and let him get a chance in that role before you ship out a prospect.

 

I am in the camp that Parra needs to at least get a shot before we acquire another BP arm.

[PeaveyFury]

Trade all the position players you want, but please keep the young pitching prospects. I want no part of any deal that includes young pitching coming back. The kid may flame out due to injury, or he may be a very good 2 or 3... you just don't know.

 

So we shouldn't get young pitchers back because they may flame out, but we shouldn't trade our young pitchers when they're the same unknown? I'm not following your point, I think.

 

Peavey has pointed out in the past that you get draft compensation if a player leaves in free agency. However you have wait a year to draft a kid and sign him

 

Well, six-seven months.

 

even then we're talking about High School arms in the sandwich round

 

They could always be college arms as well....

 

either starting in Arizona or Helena, that are easily 5 years away.

 

Yo was a high schooler that made it here in three years, and Inman is on pace to do the same. Sure, it could be 5 years, but it also could be much less. You're citing a lot of opinion and your own speculation as fact and not even presenting all the available options.

 

I would hate to be on the other end of a Franklin for Villy deal.

 

Sure it'd stink, but Manny Parra turning into Villy 2 for another team is a small price to pay for a pennant. We'd also be acquiring something considerably better than Wayne Franklin who was largely horrible by every measure. And our front office/scouting staff should be trusted a bit more than the people compiling the AARP teams in SF for years.

 

It's just too difficult to replace pitching depth when you aren't able to compete and overpay for the top end free agent pitchers.

 

The Brewers have had no trouble at all. Their rotation includes one home-grown player, three young, unproven pitchers acquired in three separate trades, and a free agent signing. The bullpen has two home grown guys, a minor league free agent, two waiver wire pickups, and two guys we've traded for.

 

Why change what's working?

 

EDIT: That doesn't even address how you solve the logjam at AAA as well. What do you do with Sarfate, Jackson, etc? Let them rot in AAA?

[aracko]

Peavey - Dont you want to see what Manny can do on the Major league level before you look into moving him for something "bigger and better"?

 

For me, If I already live in a A1 neighborhood, Id rather build an addition onto my house using equity that I already have than to buy a more expensive house with a higher interest rate. When its clear I have outgrown my house, only then is it time for an upgrade.

[igor67]

I think the Brewers should be somewhat aggressive in trying to move some of this surplus in AAA, but they should still plan on being able to replace 3 pitchers for the remainder of the year with complete confidence. So if you go with a pool of extra call ups in Balfour, Parra, Dillion, and Thatcher I think you've got pretty good quality and can fill 3 bullpen spots or rotation spots. That does leave you with a modest list of trade bait. Vargas or Spurling, Sarfate, and Jackson. Personally I'd really just as soon try out Balfour or Parra and develop longer term bullpen depth instead of burning the flame out on this team too quickly. Come playoff time the bullpen is going to get shorter and Cordero, Turnbow, Villy, and Wise is enough to ride pretty heavy. It's different if you were getting the unhittable Gagne of 3-4 years ago, but what we've got is pretty good and pretty deep already.

[PeaveyFury]

Peavey - Dont you want to see what Manny can do on the Major league level before you look into moving him for something "bigger and better"?

 

Sure, I'd love to. But is letting him waste away in middle relief as a LOOGY while he's about 8th on the depth chart for SP's really the best way to utilize him?

 

I think we've been EXTREMELY spoiled as fans with the success of our prospects so far. Prince is an MVP candidate, Hardy's in the AS game, Hart could have been in the AS game with another month, Braun is probably the favorite for ROTY, Gallardo was great in his three appearances, Villy is our 2nd best starter and pitching out of the pen. Weeks is the only one that's even been close to a disappointment to this point, and even he's been mediocre to slightly above average when healthy.

 

Point is, you don't normally have success rates like that, and some of the guys left in the minors will undoubtedly flame out. My money is on the guy with a severe injury history that wasn't even a prospect anymore until about a month ago. I really think the Perfect Game is clouding a lot of opinions on him, and that's why its a great time to sell high and get a great return.

[Boy Jeenius]

I agree - sell high if it nets a solid return for the stretch.

[obobo55]

Quote:

---

I really think the Perfect Game is clouding a lot of opinions on him, and that's why its a great time to sell high and get a great return.

---

 

I have liked Parra all the way through his time with the farm clubs. Sure he had injury troubles which slowed him down, but he has shown that he has pitched through them and now has over a full year's worth of stellar results at AA+. Once you show you can pitch at the AA level, I am convinced for the most part you can succeed in MLB. Sure there are instances like Ben Hendrickson or Obermueller, but they both had slow fastballs. Parra reportedly brings it in the nid to low 90's which for a LHP is superb.

 

I am OK with trading away Jeffress or Inman at this point in time if it is going to put the team over the top, they haven't succeeded on the higher levels. At the same time, it better bring something great in return. With the cost of MLB-average starters the way they are now (Suppan's contract is a good example), the crew needs a continuous supply of cheap pitching to compete.

 

You claim we can continue to nugget mine for that pitching. While Melvin has done very well to find Cappy, Bush, & Vargas, none of those guys are the type of pitcher you want to run out in the postseason. You need a guy like Sheets and the only way the Brewers will ever find one is by bringing him up through their system. Will Yo/Inman/Parra/Jeffress/Rogers ever achieve that level? Who knows, but I feel better with 5 possibilities than I do with 2 or 3.

 

Unless someone is going to blow you away in a deal, hang onto the starters that have success in the minors. Trade away the guys that are decent like Jackson if you must, but hold onto those if you can too, you never know when the injury bug will hit.

[danzig6767]

I really think the Perfect Game is clouding a lot of opinions on him, and that's why its a great time to sell high and get a great return.

 

The thing is though,Parra isn't some soft tosser that just happened to catch some breaks and throw a great game.He's a lefty that throws hard and has great stuff.

 

Yea his health is a legit concern,but for myself at least,it's not mainly his perfect game that makes me leery of trading Parra.If he was some crafty thrower that gets by on fooling young minor leaguers like a Ben Hendrickson type,that would be a different story.

 

Lefties who throw in the low to mid-90's,have command,and have good secondary pitches,can have outstanding big league careers.Parra certainy wouldn't be untouchable for me,but i doubt i'd trade him for a few month rental relief pitcher.

[TheCrew07]

Peavy,

 

Jackson, Sarfate, etc... these guys aren't top pitching prospects. What major league team would be foolish enough to trade a Buehrle or someone similar for AAA relievers and an AAA starter with an ERA over 4? You're talking about trading away an Inman, Jeffress, or both for that type of player. The Red Sox wouldn't even make a deal like that with the White Sox because the White Sox apparently wanted the 2 top starting pitching prospects in the organization.

 

Melvin got Cappy for Sexson (Wickman Deal), Bush for Overbay (Sexson Deal), Vargas for Davis (scrap heap pickup). Melvin has done an amazing job getting something out of nothing, but are the Brewers in position to continue to make those sort of scrap heap pickups for starters? Would Melvin trade one of our best position players to aquire more pitching at the deadline? Wouldn't that be shooting ourselves in the foot? The only free agent aquisition on the staff is Suppan, who's arguably been the worst starter of the 5. Essentially what your saying is trade away the closest young pitcher or 2 to the majors, for a 2 month rental, with no way to fill the gap with a player of similar talent in house, or without the availability of filling that void via free agency in the off season.

 

What top of the rotation college arm would fall past the first 20 slots regardless of signability? Has it happened in the last 10 years? I have a hard time saying that a hypothetical highschool draft pick would make it to the majors in 3 years. That's a best case scenario, and by far the exception to the rule. Even if they do make in 3 years, their arms aren't ready for a 200+ inning season, so they won't be able to pitch in the rotation anyway. Saying that a drafted pitcher could have the success of Yo is like people who suggest that Yo could make the 200 inning jump this year because Verlander did. We'd be counting on the exception to the rule, instead of the rule itself. To me it's just not feasible to plan your roster based on best case scenarios, I'd much rather go the other way and plan my roster around the worst case. Then you can trade any MLB surplus you have, just like Oakland has done. Not that Oakland is my model of how the Brewers should run their franchise, but they've handled their young pitching about as well as could possibly be expected.

 

Since I'm against doing any deal for a rental starting pitcher, there's no way I'm giving up anything valuable for a relief pitcher either. Again, trading away a Jackson or Sarfate would be fine, leave the high ceiling top prospect starting pitchers alone.

[PeaveyFury]

Jackson, Sarfate, etc... these guys aren't top pitching prospects. What major league team would be foolish enough to trade a Buehrle or someone similar for AAA relievers and an AAA starter with an ERA over 4? You're talking about trading away an Inman, Jeffress, or both for that type of player.

 

I think Parra, Gwynn and Sarfate gets it done for sure, but I digress. As the deadline gets closer and trade talks go no where, the Sox' reported demands will go down considerably.

 

Melvin has done an amazing job getting something out of nothing, but are the Brewers in position to continue to make those sort of scrap heap pickups for starters?

 

They're going to have more Sexson/Lee/Overbay situations where valuable Major Leaguers are going to be moved because of impending free agency and such. Sheets is a candidate next year depending on how negotiations go, and then so is Cappy. And sorry to say, but the Brewers are going to have the fiscal resources to keep some of our young, great players, but there's going to be no way in 4-5-6 years that we're going to be able to sign Fielder/Hardy/Braun/Hart/Weeks/Hall/Villanueva/Gallardo to huge multi-year deals, thus giving us definite talent to get back huge returns.

 

Wouldn't that be shooting ourselves in the foot?

 

Only if you don't have something to replace them, which is my point. We've excelled exceptionally well at drafting and developing position players, and we're seeing that with the Major League club right now. But in 5 years, you hope to either have replacements ready, or you get something back in a Sexson-like deal to supplement the team that's already there. Heck, getting Cordero for Lee hasn't really hurt the team's offense at all with the emergence of Hart, and we got a great closer back in return.

 

What top of the rotation college arm would fall past the first 20 slots regardless of signability?

 

Our #2 starter, Chris Capuano, was an 8th round pick out of college. It took me all of 2 minutes to find that example, I'm sure there are plenty of others. It's about finding and developing the talent regardless of where it's taken. Heck, the top pitching prospects that you're so deadset against trading away at all costs include a 3rd rounder out of HS in Inman, a 16th rounder out of college in Parra, a HS pitcher picked 16th overall in Jeffress, and even Gallardo was a 2nd rounder out of HS. I'd say the Brewers have actually had pretty good success so far with their late 1st-3rd drafting of HS pitchers.

[TheCrew07]

You're talking about aquiring a player this year...

 

So you'd trade Hardy, Fielder, Hart, Hall, Braun, in a Sexsonesque type deal? We're talking about having a very competitive window of 4-5 years here and maintaining some long term consistently in winning. It's one thing to dump someone who you have no chance of resigning, it's another to aquire a rent player.

 

The whole reason the rent a player scenario doesn't make sense is the very fact that the Brewers are not going to be able to afford everyone on the team. There has to be someone coming along behind them that can get the job done, ala Fielder vs Overbay. If you trade away all of the top prospects for rental players what's left? The Brewers are not in a position where they can make rental player deals, and never will be. You cannot continually trade away talent, it just keeps pushing your top prospects farther away.

 

Cappy wasn't drafted as a top of rotation pitcher, just like Hart never was a top prospect. Again, those 2 guys are the exception to the rule. I don't disagree that the Brewers will have to draft well to be successful, but to assume that they'll continue to have the success they've had recently doesn't seem prudent to me. As you pointed out, they've had a very low flame out rate recently, sooner or later the law of averages is going to start swinging back the other way.

 

If the Brewers can aquire a meaningful piece at the deadline which doesn't cost a top prospect, then I'll post retraction. Until then, we're going to have to agree to disagree.

[dadofandrew]

I doubt if Sarfate has much more than throw-in (Krynzel) value right now. With a 2ish WHIP and no options, he's not much more than a minor league FA with plus velocity right now.

[PeaveyFury]

You're talking about aquiring a player this year...

 

I think we're talking about both this year and long term all along, unless you've been claiming that Inman and Jeffress are going to help the big league team this year.

 

If you trade away all of the top prospects for rental players what's left?

 

Again, you're exaggerating, as no one here is talking about trading away ALL of the top prospects for anything. All along it's been ONE of the top prospects, like Parra or Inman or whomever.

 

Cappy wasn't drafted as a top of rotation pitcher, just like Hart never was a top prospect. Again, those 2 guys are the exception to the rule.

 

The exception to the rule? Let's look at the Brewers' rotation: Sheets, high/mid first rounder, Cappy 8th rounder, Suppan 2nd rounder, Bush 2nd rounder, Vargas undrafted free agent. So those are 4 out of 5 members of the rotation that weren't drafted in the top 20. Being drafted as a 'top of the rotation pitcher' doesn't make you more likely to actually be one. In fact, there are probably more exceptions to your rule than pitchers who actually fall into it. You can find a considerable amount of 'top of the rotation pitchers' drafted in the 1st that failed... see Kyle Peterson for the Brewers for a not-so distant reminder just from out past. If Cappy wasn't a top of the rotation pitching prospect, what does that make Yo and Inman or Manny? Isn't that MORE of a reason to trade them if they really ARE the exception to the rule?

 

As you pointed out, they've had a very low flame out rate recently, sooner or later the law of averages is going to start swinging back the other way.

 

All the more reason to move one or two of the prospects in a good deal. As it has often been said, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. They could possibly be the next Sheets, but the odds are that they'll be the next Nick Neugebauer, Kyle Peterson, Edwin Jackson, whomever.

 

I just don't see how trading away some combination of one of our 'top guys' with blocked guys like Gwynn or Jackson is going to destroy the farm system and hurt us for years to come when a return is going to either be a rent a player that returns two high draft picks back into the system, or as discussed in this thread, someone like Otsuka who not only helps the team this year, but is Brewer property for 2008 and 2009 for after Cordero leaves as well.

[igor67]

I submit that the reason for disagree here is a matter of degree. If you talk about a one time deal for a real difference maker over the next few years then I think people are almost universally in favor of dealing SOME of our prospects. On the other hand I think what some people fear consciously or not is that we start wheeling and dealing trying to win now and slowly at first but rather quickly burn through our next group of impact prospects and get only modest one year rentals whom we don't even bother to offer arby too because we're trying to hold onto are really good players.

[BrewCrewRising]

Quote:

---

Trade speculation: Phillies outfielder Michael Bourn to the Rangers for Akinori Otsuka. Such a move, however, would increase reliance on Pat Burrell and leave the Phillies short-staffed in the outfield for 2008. Rosenthal believes Bourn could develop into a Juan Pierre type, sans the noodle arm.

---

 

source: www.mlbtraderumors.com/

which quoted Ken Rosenthal

 

Bourn this year in 70 AB: .286/.375/.357

Gwynn this in 83 AB: .301/.363/.349

 

Career in Minors:

 

Bourn: 1552 AB's - .285/.372/.393

Gwynn: 1726 AB's - .271/.345/.343

 

Bourn is obviously the player you want in a trade, but if Bourn straight up for Otsuka gets it done, I have to imagine a package with Gwynn and a good pitching prospect (Jackson?) gets that job done unless Jon Daniels just has a fixin' for Bourn. But who knows how reliable or in-depth the rumor is.

 

I like Gwynn, but I have to agree with all those who say he is blocked. He'd be a nice 4th outfielder to have, but I'd rather exchange him and a blocked pitcher for a veteran RP with a great track record.