Project the Opening Day 25-man Roster

[LouisEly]

DiFelice had also been impressive before Sunday, allowing one run and just two hits in eight innings over three appearances. He also pitched four scoreless innings for Italy against a potent Venezuelan lineup in the World Baseball Classic.

 

People forget that in 15 appearances last year encompassing 19 innings, he gave up 17 hits, 4 walks (1.11 WHIP), struck out 20 and had an ERA of 2.84. A small sample, yes, but pedestrian journeyman numbers, no. Take out his ML debut in Boston, a tough place to make your major league debut much less against a very potent LH lineup, and his numbers were even more impressive. Outside of that game he gave up three solo HRs, and that's it.

 

If DiFelice learns not to throw low inside strikes to LH power hitters (like Ortiz) he will be a very good pitcher.

[joepepsi]

Put the best 25 players on the active roster and let's see what happens...

I hate it when teams don't do this. The only time it's justified is if you are cutting an established veteran in favor of a hot shot kid who's ready. The players who've earned a spot should be on the 25 man roster. It's a bad mark on an organization when a player gets a spot just because he's out of options.

 

TGJ types are probably the most easily replaceable player in professional baseball. He will clear waivers, unless the Padres pick him up for sentimental reasons. If they do that, well, that's their own fault.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I totally agree. I don't think Gwynn is good enough to make any team right now, which is what would happen if he was claimed. If he is DFA's we'll see him in Nashville again. I also see no sense in sending McGehee or Duffy down. Where would McGehee even play with Gamel already at third? Duffy could take one of the OF spots, but with Gwynn likely being able to clear waivers it doesn't make sense.

[Ennder]

I'll disagree, sticking a guy on your bench and releasing another who is out of options is just bad business. You earn your way into the starting lineup, bench spots SHOULD be as much about maximizing talent in AAA and the majors as anything else.

[joepepsi]

How do you maximize talent in the majors by putting an inferior player on the 25 man roster and sending the superior player to AAA?

[Ennder]

How do you maximize talent in the majors by putting an inferior player on the 25 man roster and sending the superior player to AAA?

That isn't what I said so I don't know. You get into a situation where you either a) put one guy in the minors and someone else in the majors or b) keep the guy in the majors and lose a player completely because they are out of options.

 

With Lamb I think we just keep McGehee because Lamb seems expendable to me. With Duffy if the team thinks we need more OF depth it makes more sense to keep up Gwynn and option Duffy rather than just potentially lose Gwynn. Neither one is making an impact on the team unless someone gets hurt so why lose a player completely over a few measly AB in april.

[joepepsi]

I suppose it depends on the situation. With Gwynn vs. Duffy I can see your logic. I was thinking more along the lines of your other scenario. I've always like Lamb as a hitter, but he looks done to me. So I'll be upset if he stays on the roster and McGehee is sent down.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Aside from superior performance in spring training games, does anybody have any serious reasons for thinking that Duffy and McGehee are actually superior to Gwynn and Lamb? Before spring, I would have said Duffy is probably ever so slightly better than Gwynn and Lamb is probably ever so slightly better than McGehee. What they've done in spring really doesn't do much to change these opinions.

 

Maybe you want to treat spring training contests for the last few roster spots somewhat seriously, but only if you care about giving the marginal guys on your roster an incentive to try really hard in spring training games. What difference does that really make? The established vets are still going to treat the games as meaningless tune-up chances where the most important thing is not to get injured. It's the performance of those guys that really makes the difference between a successful and a disappointing season, and I'm not sure that there's anything that can be done to change their attitude toward spring training, nor am I sure that it would be a good idea to change it if you could.

 

Having said all that, I do think that when you are a borderline contending team like the Brewers are this season, you probably should be treating every PA and IP as a precious commodity, since there is a high probability that making or missing the playoffs might come down to a couple of wins or losses here and there. If McGehee and Duffy are actually better players, I think the club should keep them on the 25 man roster, even if it means sacrificing some replacement level types who are out of options. I'm just not sold that looking at spring training performance is the best way to make that determination.

[Ennder]

My 10 year old son is probably about as good as Gwynn. I think the only thing Lamb has over McGehee is being LH.

[endaround]

Lamb has been really bad defensively for a while. Given that he fell of a cliff offensively last season, McGehee is the safer and better choice. Maybe it was bad year but the Brewers really can't afford the PAs to see if thats the case. Duffy vs Gwynn doesn't really make a difference, with Duffy having the slightly better chance of putting up a career year.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Believe me, it's not like I'm a Lamb guy. But the most pessimistic projection system of the five fangraphs has still thinks he's good for a .263 / .315 / .403 line. Contrast that with McGehee's 2008 MLE line of .242 / .282 / .341 and the fact that the most optimistic projection for him (not counting Marcel, which is agnostic about MLEs) is .252 / .312 / .369. It's not at all unreasonable to think that Lamb's bat still has more to offer than McGehee's. McGehee's defense and versatility may be enough to swing the balance in his favor (maybe not though -- this is mainly a PH spot since Counsell is certain to see the lion's share of reserve IF innings), but I don't think that's clear cut or anything. Certainly not to the tune of three >>>s. The only reason I can see to feel that strong a preference is if you believe in McGehee's hitting this spring. In short, I don't.

 

Neither Duffy or Gwynn should be expected to hit worth a lick, though Duffy doesn't project to be quite as terrible. Both are good baserunners. I would concede to Gwynn fans that it's not out of the question that he could make up for the missing pop with his glove, but only if he really is +10 runs / 150 or better in CF. He'd have to be a really terrific fielder, since Duffy seems to be at least average in CF, which is no easy feat. It's hard to see much separation here, but I'd go with Duffy because I am more confident in my assessment that he's a slightly better hitter than I am in the guess that Gwynn might be a better fielder. Still, can't really bring myself to care very much -- I don't want either of these guys getting significant numbers of PA.

 

Personally, the only real concern I've got left about the 25 man is whether they'll be smart enough to keep DiFelice up. I can't seem to get worked up about the battle for the last few positional reserve spots. Frankly, all of those guys are pretty terrible.

[endaround]

That's my greatest fear of Gwynn on the 25 man roster-that he'd actually be used. It happened the last time, and yes Macha isn't Yost but still...

 

And projection systems of Lamb have to be sketchy since he hit fine in 2007. But he was so bad the Twins(not exactly a free spending organization) cut him with a full year left on his contract.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

And projection systems of Lamb have to be sketchy since he hit fine in 2007. But he was so bad the Twins(not exactly a free spending organization) cut him with a full year left on his contract.

I suppose that's evidence that the Twins thought he's gone cliff-diving. It wouldn't be unheard of for a corner IF to collapse at 32, but it would be unusual. I think it's still pretty likely it was just an off year. It's not like any of the systems ignore that data -- all of them assign more weight to his most recent performance, which is why nobody is projecting Lamb to match his career numbers this year.

[GormanHarvey]

Believe me, it's not like I'm a Lamb guy. But the most pessimistic projection system of the five fangraphs has still thinks he's good for a .263 / .315 / .403 line. Contrast that with McGehee's 2008 MLE line of .242 / .282 / .341 and the fact that the most optimistic projection for him (not counting Marcel, which is agnostic about MLEs) is .252 / .312 / .369. It's not at all unreasonable to think that Lamb's bat still has more to offer than McGehee's. McGehee's defense and versatility may be enough to swing the balance in his favor (maybe not though -- this is mainly a PH spot since Counsell is certain to see the lion's share of reserve IF innings), but I don't think that's clear cut or anything. Certainly not to the tune of three >>>s. The only reason I can see to feel that strong a preference is if you believe in McGehee's hitting this spring. In short, I don't.

You can talk all of the numbers, stats, and projections that you like, but trust me, if you had gone to Maryvale this month like I had the opportunity to, I think you would feel the same way. Some things you just have to see with your own eyes, and when you do you can just throw all those projections right out the window. Lamb is running on E. It's not like I consider myself some great talent evaluator, but the difference is so apparent that it was like night and day watching McGehee play in comparison to Lamb.

[JJHardy7]

The established vets are still going to treat the games as meaningless tune-up chances where the most important thing is not to get injured.

 

Exactly. TGJ and Lamb aren't established on this team so they should've shown more. We really don't even know if TGJ is 100% healthy. Lamb has looked old and was released last year. I think spring training does matter for every team. I just think it's a difference to what degree it matters. I have no problem with the Brewers taking the last few spots based on spring training performances. TGJ has been with the team long enough for the organization to know what he does and what he doesn't do. IMO he was going to have to show that he was better than Duffy to make the team and he didn't. I'm not a huge Lamb guy since from what I've seen here on this site states his defense is bad (I've never seen him nor do I claim at all to be an expert at defense projections...far from it). Baseball veterans do though have to show they belong when they're fighting for the last few spots...guys like JJ, Braun, Fielder, etc. don't have to.

[logan82]

Looks like TGJ, Nelson and Lamb will make the club over Duffy and McGehee. Link

 

Looks like 6 more years of TGJ hanging around as a backup outfielder.

 

 

As for Lamb, Macha said, "I think he's had some streaks where he's swung the bat very well, and then he's had some streaks where he hasn't. I've seen him play before, too [with Texas 2000-03] so that's in my mind, also. ...

Comments like the bolded part bug the crap out of me. I don't like a manager making decisions on what a player was 4+ years ago. Much like the Kendall batting leadoff stuff.

[MNBrew]

I suppose that's evidence that the Twins thought he's gone cliff-diving. It wouldn't be unheard of for a corner IF to collapse at 32, but it would be unusual. I think it's still pretty likely it was just an off year.

I watched Lamb up here with MN last year. He just plain stunk. Punto had an off year in '07 but they hung with him and he had a great '08 and earned a good FA contract to be their starting SS this year. That was no off year from Mike Lamb last year. If the Twins had believed that was the case, they wouldn't have chosen to eat the rest of his '08 contract AND his $3.5M salary for '09.

 

The Twins wanted so badly for him to take over 3B, yet he was so unproductive & terrible that they released him when no one claimed him off waivers. I can't remember the last time the Twins released a player before he was in the last year of his contract.

 

The most pessimistic project a .263 BA for Lamb this year? The guy hit .235 last year with no power and was just plain bad, and he's also been horrible hitting against most team's minor leaguers in spring training. Bag those projections. If Lamb's lucky (and if we're lucky), he'll get a chance to hit .263 for some other organization this year -- in AAA.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Honestly, this whole depth over performance is beyond absurd. If Macha/Melvin kept Gywnn over Duffy and Lamb over McGehee, I will be seriously be tempted to get them some health evaultions. Perhaps a bit harsh, but why not put your best players out there? Duffy can play all 3 outfield positions and hit. McGehee has played 1st, 2nd,and 3rd base this spring.

 

I can't fathom leaving those two off the roster because they have options remaining. You are sacrificing the team at that point for options.

[And That]

Gwynn on the roster over Duffy makes a fat load of zero sense. And Nelson needs to make the team.

 

On the other hand, I have no problem with Lamb making the club over McGehee. Keeping a guy because he was really great in less than 80 spring training at-bats (really great average anyway - he still hasn't walked) but has never had an 800 OPS in the minors over another guy who has had an 800 OPS in the majors as recently as 2007 doesn't strike me as a necessary move. If Counsell wasn't on the team, maybe you keep McGehee for his defense, but Counsell is here. I'd rather have both guys in the organization.

[Ennder]

Mike Lamb hit .236 in 2005 and then .307 and .289 the next two years so we can probably stop harping on the .235 AVG. He gets under 400 AB a year which means his AVG is going to be borderline random in any given season, he only got 247 AB last year which makes it even more so. Not surprisingly in 2005 he had a .261 BABIP and last year he had a .268 BABIP.

 

What worries me with Lamb is that his BB rate dropped and his ISO plummeted last year. If those trends don't reverse in a hurry he is going to be useless to us.

 

Regardless we are talking backups who will barely play in April so I can't lose any sleep over it.

[yount19.u]

Although I would prefer Duffy and McGehee make the team over Gwynn and Lamb, I would not be too concerned if the team decides to go the other way for the following reasons:

 

1. The difference between Duffy being on the team vs. Gwynn will likely not make a difference as they would bring similar production as back ups. So why not let Duffy get his licks in down in AAA? He barely played pro ball last year and could use the at bats instead of wasting away on the Brewer bench. If he lights it up in AAA and Gwynn continues to struggle, then call him up and either release Gwynn or trade him. If they both are productive, then one of the two is trade bait.

2. Lamb is struggling, but if he improves at all, he would be a better platoon option at third then Counsell, if Hall struggles again, and he would be a good pinch hit option due to his experience (preparation makes a good pinch hitter and he some experience with that).

3. McGehee would be the best option to take over third full time this year if Hall is injured, traded, or struggles like he did last year. Lamb and Counsell can be productive as bench players, but not full time. McGehee at least has the potential to be productive full time at third, and he is a good fielder (from what I've read). So like Duffy, let him get his licks down in AAA as a full time player, so if/when he's needed, he can hit the ground running in the majors.

 

Feel free to rip these thoughts to shreds if you must. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[PrinceEatMeat]

I like 1 and 2. I agree with your points there. However, number 3 could raise a problem. Why? Because we have Gamel as out starting third baseman in Nashville. Which means that McGehee would have to play regularly at some other position, which wouldn't prepare him to replace Hall if need be. The presence of Gamel makes me more apt to lean towards McGehee over Lamb. McGehee also provides a right-handed option other than Rivera off the bench, and is more versatile than Lamb. If we need a platoon mate for Hall later in the year we can go with Counsell, and if he struggles Gamel might even be an option if he rakes at AAA.

[yount19.u]

Good point about Gamel, I completely spaced that. I would think the team would have to have some kind of plan in place if McGehee gets sent down. Maybe they play him at second most of the time while putting some time in at third and first. Anything to get him as many plate appearances as possible to keep his bat fresh. McGehee could also be a backup plan to Weeks if he gets injured. As for Gamel over McGehee, I would rather have Gamel work out his defensive flaws in AAA until he can at least be serviceable in majors with his glove.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree that Gwynn is expendable and replaceable. So he really adds nothing to organizational depth. I also agree that he'll clear waivers.

 

I like that Lamb is a veteran and has experience as a prime pinch hitter. I also like McGehee for his versatility and right handed bat. Lamb has played some corner OF. I'd keep Lamb, Nelson, and McGehee. I'd let Gwynn go and play Duffy everyday in Nashville to be ready if Cameron goes down. In an emergency situation, Hart can play CF and so can Hall. With Gwynn off the 40 man, they could add Duffy at any time.

[PrinceEatMeat]

There is no way they can roll with Lamb and Nelson as backup outfielders. They would both be liabilities in the field, and Cameron wouldn't get days off. I wouldn't be excited to see Hart play in cf. He should be kept in rf. Duffy is so much more versatile. He could spell Cameron as a lefty complement, and leadoff if Weeks is off on the same day in a Sunday lineup. He could also play lf and rf if needed. Nelson would be used in more of a pinch-hitting role, possibly getting a few starts in place of Braun or Hart, but not many, and possibly some starts at 1b for Prince. I just don't see Lamb's value on this roster. Nelson is our lefty bat, Counsell can spell Hall at third, Nelson can spell Fielder at first. No place for Lamb in there.

 

Also, to add on to what I said before about Gamel, he will play everyday at 3b. He needs work in the field. I don't see him sitting many games down there, or DHing. The only way for him to get better at 3b is to play 3b everyday. Basically, McGehee would have to play mostly 2b and 1b in AAA, which I really don't see a point in doing. Sure, I guess it would get him experience at those positions, but I think that if we need him as a backup plan at 3b, he should be playing 3b. My guess is that Thorman will be starting at 1b in Nashville, and Iribarren will play at 2b most of the time. With Escobar at ss and Gamel at 3b.

 

Now that I think about it, Nashville might be winning the AAA World Series this year. Especially if they have guys like Duffy and McGehee. They could throw out a lineup like this...

 

Duffy

Escobar

Gamel

McGehee

Salome

Thorman

Iribarren

Rottino or Bourgeois (possibly Cain if he gets to AAA eventually)

 

That isn't bad at all.