Project the Opening Day 25-man Roster

[TooLiveBrew]

Macha seems to like DiFelice, so I can see him being kept over Julio

 

I might like this Macha fellow yet. What are you basing this comment on, PrinceEatMeat?

[logan82]

Probably comments like this referring to DiFelice Link

 

"I can't hold one bad outing against him," Macha said. "He's had a bunch of great outings."

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, that's basically where I get that from. After every time DiFelice pitches Macha seems to have some good comment about him. Also, Julio hasn't been mentioned at all when Macha has discussed who could take Villanueva's set-up role if he continues to struggle, or who could take the closer role if Hoffman starts the season on the DL. My guess is Julio gets cut.

[Invader3K]

but we all know that Melvin loves Gwynn, so something might happen there.

I think if Melvin really "loves Gwynn", he would have had way more opportunities than he's had to start at the MLB level. Then again, if popular sentiment ruled in his situation, Cameron probably would have been traded for a sack of balls to the Yankees so Gwynn could be our starting MLB center fielder this year.

 

I agree though, that I hope Gwynn is just DFAed, if a trade can't be worked out. I have nothing against the guy, I just don't see him having any sort of fit with the Brewers at this juncture.

[davego]

I'm with Ennder, the 2nd LHP out of the pen would be nice to have.

[mletto157]

I wanted Swindle personally.

 

Agreed. I was really looking forward to seeing his 55 MPH curve! For some reason they looked at Stetter/Swindle as an either/or type of deal, and I really don't know why. They're both good pitchers and both can pitch against RHP as well as LHP.

[endaround]

Swindle really is just a LOOGY while Stetter does seem to pitch like one his results say otherwise

[mletto157]

Stetter used to have a regular overhand delivery - he has just in the last couple years changed to that side-arm style he has now.

[liveforoctober]

Bill Schroeder was just talking on the air about the roster and the final bench spots that were up for grabs... and he said that "nothing is certain"... but you can "read between the lines"... and he said he thinks Duffy has earned a spot and that McGahee has earned a spot and that the final spot is going to come down to Lamb and Nelson.

 

If that's the case it's Nelson without thinking... right?

[endaround]

Yeah, a 3rd 3B isn't needed.

[Invader3K]

Nelson brings lefty power off the bench. Lamb brings...not much at this point.

[BrewCrewForever]

If Lamb, Gwynn or even Nixon make this club over a guy like Nelson, Duffy or McGehee I would be really disappointed in Doug and Ken.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I guarantee that Melvin is working the phones right now trying to work out trades for Lamb and Gwynn. No one will want Gwynn for obvious reasons, but Lamb could draw some interest. I personally think Gwynn will just be DFA'd, and because he has no options left, I have a hard time believing that any team would claim him. He might end up in Nashville again. He will just be another AAAA player in this league.

[brewerguy71]

I think the debate is Nelson vs Gwynn and Lamb vs McGehee.

 

I am not a huge fan of Gwynn, but having another big swing/big strikeout guy coming off the bench late in the game vs a contact hitter with speed is a no brainer. Most times when it comes to a pinch hit situation, you just need to get a guy on base. Sure Milwaukee and Brewer fans love the HR, the organization has built up a loyal fan base based solely on that fact. But I do not think Nelson can have a large impact on this team, nor any really that wants to contend, and losing him through waivers is no great loss. Now Gwynn doesnt add much either, but his speed and potential for defensive versatility adds something. PECTOTA doesnt regard either player favorably, but speed and defensive ability are more important in my book than the power of yet another solid block of stone.

 

And in the case of Lamb vs McGehee, again PECOTA doesnt rate either favorably but Lamb's lefthanded bat and experience go a heck of a lot farther than McGehee's "youth" and "spirit" shown this spring. Granted McGehee brings better defense but the only way he gets to play is if Hall gets hurt or needs a day off, and if he does play he doesnt project offensively at all. At least Lamb will give you that left handed bat for a platoon every once in a while, play well enough defensively and give at least replacement level offense. If a trade has to be made, maybe McGehee's spring can fool some team into believing that there is worth there to be had.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/41724002.html

 

This article proves my point from before that it's Gwynn vs. Duffy and Lamb vs. McGehee. But, like I said, I think Lamb has trade value, so I see McGehee and Gwynn making the roster. For some odd reason, I just don't see Melvin giving up on Gwynn, even though he should. My choices would be to trade Lamb and DFA Gwynn. If he makes it through waivers and ends up in Nashville then so be it. Counsell can hit against righties at 3B, so I think Lamb's value is pretty low at this point, especially since he has been out-performed by both Counsell and McGehee. Nelson can be backup 1B.

[TooLiveBrew]

Most times when it comes to a pinch hit situation, you just need to get a guy on base.

 

Gwynn minor league career line: .273/.345/.342/.687

Nelson minor league career line: .269/.345/.439/.786

 

Gwynn 2008 (AAA): .275/.328/.331/.659

Nelson 2008 (AAA): .286/.380/.480/.860

 

 

One of these two hitters can hit for power & keep his BB rate up in MLB, and the other is TGJ.

 

 

EDIT: Major League Equivalencies, based on 2008 Nashville stats (via minorleaguesplits.com's MLE calculator)

 

Gwynn: .240/.284/.283/.567

Nelson: .246/.322/.393/.715

 

-- of course that's just analyzing the small sample of 2008, but there really isn't a good reason imo to keep Gwynn over Nelson. When people say things like, 'Keep TGJ because we need guys to get on base', I just scratch my head.

[endaround]

The other thing people need to realize is Tony Gwynn is older than they think he is. Nelson is actually more than 2 months younger than Gwynn (Nelson birthday is 12/23, his birthdays must have sucked as a kid) I don't care if its Gwynn or Duffy, both pretty much stink as anything but an emergency replacement, The only difference is one's father won't start leaking to ESPN how the team isn't giving his son a chance. Neither should be on the team over Nelson.

[trwi7]

brewerguy71 wrote:

---

Most times when it comes to a pinch hit situation, you just need to get a guy on base.

Brewers are losing by one with the pitcher's spot up and two out and nobody on in the 8th inning. Who would you rather have up? A guy with a chance to tie the game or a guy with the chance to only get on base where you need another hit (most likely an extra base hit) to bring him home?

[Never Outhustled]

Duffy was a much better hitter at the minor league level than Gwynn, and is an easy choice over Gwynn. Dale Sveam coached Duffy in the minors, so his past success isn't lost on our staff. Duffy actually even outhit Nelson in the minors, where he has a career 371 OBA.

 

 

Mike Lamb has no trade value. He was at home without a job when we called him last year, and then was available for almost free again in the offseason, but was only offered by us. He was terrible last year, and terrible in spring training with a job on the line.

[JJHardy7]

PECTOTA doesnt regard either player favorably, but speed and defensive ability are more important in my book than the power of yet another solid block of stone.

 

Granted McGehee brings better defense but the only way he gets to play is if Hall gets hurt or needs a day off, and if he does play he doesnt project offensively at all.

 

Don't these two statements kind of hurt your point about defense? There's no way TGJ should be kept over Nelson. If it's about getting on base, Nelson once again is your guy. An OBP of .380 last year in AAA compared to TGJ's .328 in Nashville.

[BrewCrewForever]

Sucks that Chris Duffy and Casey McGehee might get punished and go to AAA just because they have options. Where as Gwynn and Lamb who have done nothing really to deserve to make the club will because they have no options. At least Nelson seems to have nailed down a spot.

[Never Outhustled]

Sucks that Chris Duffy and Casey McGehee might get punished and go to AAA just because they have options.

I totally agree, because its only gets more senseless as you dig deeper. Iribarren is as good, if not a better, hitter than Gwynn, with more upside and versatility, would be available for MLB depth. For 3B depth, Adam Heether has been a better player than McGehee every year until this spring training, and Mat Gamel might eventually be a 3B option.

 

Keeping Lamb and Gwynn to push depth to AAA is unnecessary, and makes the big league club worse.

[TheCrew07]

X stole my thunder... I'm not big on depth for depth's sake... I argued against the concept all winter. I'm all for stashing unpolished talent as depth, but I don't see how Lamb and Gwynn should be kept because they can't be optioned... they aren't very good to begin with, what does the option matter? By that logic the team should have kept Vargas last year. This seams reactionary to me... the Brewers had horrible luck cutting Vargas and then losing 2 starters for the season out of the gate last year and now were over compensating by creating roster spots for players that aren't very good for the sake of depth? I say BOOOO!

 

Put the best 25 players on the active roster and let's see what happens...

 

If all our 3B get hurt would it be so bad to give Gamel a shot later in the season? How does he not qualify as depth? The same can be said for Cain or Gillespie? How are they not depth?

[PrinceEatMeat]

We don't need any depth at AAA. If Hall goes down, Counsell and McGehee handle 3b with Gamel possibly getting called upon if he hits well in AAA. If an OF goes down, Duffy and Nelson fill in and Cain could get a cup of tea, or we will likely have Nixon in AAA to come up if necessary. I just don't see why we wouldn't keep our best players on the Major League roster. Sending down Duffy and McGehee would do nothing to benefit us. We don't need Gwynn struggling in the big leagues anymore, and Lamb isn't anyone to get excited over. Nelson is the lefty off the bench that we need, not Lamb.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

If Lamb, Gwynn or even Nixon make this club over a guy like Nelson, Duffy or McGehee I would be really disappointed in Doug and Ken.

+1

 

This truly would be a huge mistake and the way they are talking lately, they might make a boneheaded move before long.