The 44 Worst Contracts in the MLB

[Tbadder]

Found this trolling around and thought it was interesting. Of course Hall and Suppan are on the list. http://www.springtraining09.com/features/the-44-worst-contracts-in-base.php#below

[JoeH33]

Fixed Link

[Invader3K]

Not too many surprises on there, but an interesting read anyway. Thanks.

[JohnBriggs12]

His comment on Carlos Lee is interesting. Lee was having his best year ever in 2008 after one of his best years in 2007 with 32 HR and 119 RBI. He was on pace for 38 HR and 135 RBI. Those are Manny type numbers. I don't think his contract is that far out of line in dollars per year. Maybe it's a year or two too long but time will tell.

[Gobias Industries]

I think they didn't like it because of how backloaded it is. He might be broken down by the time the deal runs out, and that's when he's making his biggest dollars.

 

One that stood out to me was Kei Igawa. I recalled that contract being more like 5/25 than 5/46. He's basically a AAAA player and he's making over 9 mil a year. Unreal.

[Ennder]

Of course HR/RBI are just two stats. Lee doesn't get on as much as Manny and he's probably even worse in the field. Guys like Lee or Ibanez are always overpriced because HR/RBI are the sexy stats.

[brains and braun]

Worse than Manny in the field? Is that possible?

[pete]

Kei Igawa - one additional note: his salary isn't included in the "payroll" number because he isn't on the 40 man roster. Same with CC's 9 million dollar bonus. So when people make bold statements about Yankee payroll it is usually a "sort of."

[sbrylski]

This is basically just a list of free agents over the past few years.

[Schlitz001]

This is basically just a list of free agents over the past few years.

The author says at the beginning that he's only including current contracts on the list. So no Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park or Kevin Brown....

[nate82]

His comment on Carlos Lee is interesting. Lee was having his best year ever in 2008 after one of his best years in 2007 with 32 HR and 119 RBI. He was on pace for 38 HR and 135 RBI. Those are Manny type numbers. I don't think his contract is that far out of line in dollars per year. Maybe it's a year or two too long but time will tell.

If the Astros were in the AL this contract wouldn't be as bad. I would take Lee as a DH he is just awful in the OF and he will only get worse as he gets older.

[zzzmanwitz]

I think sbrylski's point is that FAs are pretty much always a bad deal by the end of their contracts.

[Ennder]

Worse than Manny in the field? Is that possible?

There are reasons to believe that a lot of Manny's poor fielding was the wall in Boston. We'll have to see a full year outside of there to know for sure. Carlos Lee could plausibly be the worst LF in baseball though.

 

Using Fangraph numbers Suppan was worth $10.9M in 2007 and then -0.4M in 2008. If we had signed him for $7M a year I'd have been fine with it so yeah we certainly overspent on him.

 

Hall was worth $6.8M in 2007, $4.3M in 2008. So far he has been underpayed over the last 2 years and it wouldn't take much improvement for that contract to end up being a small bargain.

[Invader3K]

It seems like every slugging LF in baseball is regarded as "the worst" from a defensive standpoint. Adam Dunn is said to be horrible. Ryan Braun, while not a liability, was pretty much derided the whole year until he made it a full season without a single error. A couple years ago, Barry Bonds was said to be terrible. Manny isn't very good, El Caballo isn't very good, etc.

 

I think teams don't care that much about a bad defensive LF if he's going to hit 30-40 homers and get on base a bunch.

[Ennder]

In Lee's case he probably has earned his money the last 2 years, it is more the future that is a worry.

 

Also I'm sure I'm letting personal bias get in the way some on my opinion of Lee. Statistically he hasn't been one of the worst LF the last couple of years but I had to watch him field in 2006 so I'm just remembering how terrible he was that year.

[bobskube]

Using Fangraph numbers Suppan was worth $10.9M in 2007 and then -0.4M in 2008. If we had signed him for $7M a year I'd have been fine with it so yeah we certainly overspent on him.

 

Hall was worth $6.8M in 2007, $4.3M in 2008. So far he has been underpayed over the last 2 years and it wouldn't take much improvement for that contract to end up being a small bargain.

Fangraph is wrong on this one. Hall's value was negative last season. He was -5.7 games, the worst on the Brewers. He was overpaid.

[Ennder]

Fangraph is wrong on this one. Hall's value was negative last season. He was -5.7 games, the worst on the Brewers. He was overpaid.

From what source? Checking another source(Dial's I think it is) I see him coming out at 4.8 runs above replacement. There is absolutely no way he was -5.7 games, I could buy runs but certainly not games.

[kramnoj]

Fangraph is wrong on this one. Hall's value was negative last season. He was -5.7 games, the worst on the Brewers. He was overpaid.

 

Where is -5.7 games from? One of the reasons that Hall does well in Fangraphs is because of his defense. Some people can't get past his errors, but he was a plus defender last year.

[endaround]

The problem I have with the list is how arbitrary it is. You include Carlos Lee but don't include Tori Hunter when both have the same contract and Lee is actually younger and was better last year?

[Fatter than Joey]

The problem I have with the list is how arbitrary it is.

 

This was my first reaction as well -- Lee's contract is not "bad" at this point, -- it could end up being bad -- but for now Houston is getting return on their investment. It is getting to the point where any signing of a veteran to a multi-year gets panned, and on the other hand, any 1 year signing no matter how obscene, people just shrug it off..

 

DM's signing of Gagne was horrible -- $10M for a -1 Value win -- but because it was a one-year deal it gets judged differently. I understand that it would have been worse if Gagne would have gotten a 4 yr deal at $10M per, but it remains that the Gagne 2008 contract was probably one of the worst in baseball in 2008.

 

Riske's deal at this point is probably should have made this list. Riske could certainly turn it around -- but it seems to me to be unlikely that his deal will end up being a good one for the Brewers after 2010.

[Ennder]

Always hard to judge a deal like the Riske one since he got hurt. My guess is regardless of the injury he'd have been overpaid but it certainly looks worse in hindsight than it was.

[Fatter than Joey]

Always hard to judge a deal like the Riske one since he got hurt.

 

Agreed... and I am not trying to say, DM was stupid or Dave Riske sucks -- I think those are topics for a different discussion.

 

I tend to look at these things from a money in vs. money out perspective. The bottom line is that Dave Riske did not give the Brewers good return in 2008 for the money paid to him.

 

All contracts are risks, some players are going to get injured and not be able to perform to expected levels, -- so far I would say Riske's contract is "bad" -- but not "stupid".

 

I think Carlos Lee's contract so far is a decent one, and could very well turn out OK for the Astros. My guess is that he will provide enough positive value from his first 2-3 years to account for any negative value in his last year.

 

I like the idea of this article -- I just think it could have been fleshed out better.

[kramnoj]

Lee's contract is not "bad" at this point

 

Sure it is. In his career year he wasn't worth what he will be paid each year over the next 4 years. The only way that Lee's contract doesn't end up as a significant overpay is if the Astros revenue increases by an incredible, unforseen amount.

[Fatter than Joey]

The only way that Lee's contract doesn't end up as a significant overpay is if the Astros revenue increases by an incredible, unforseen amount.

 

You have no way to claim that if he is overpaid, it will be significant.

[kramnoj]

You have no way to claim that if he is overpaid, it will be significant.

 

Why not?

 

Are you sure you know what Lee's remaning contract is? He is owed $18.5M per year through 2012. Right now, if we just take Fangraphs value as the baseline, the Astros are ahead $4M for the first two years. Lee's highest value was last year at $15.3M and his second highest is 2004 at $14.9M. If I average the last three years, his average value has been $12.47M/year. If I just say that Lee will be worth $12.5M per year over the next 4 years, the Astros will have overpaid by $6M/year for 4 years. For the life of the contract, they will have overpaid by $20M.

 

There's a lot of assumptions in there. There is the assumption that value wins are maintained at the same salary level over the next 4 years. Its my belief that they will decrease in 2009, and probably in 2010, and I don't have a reasonable guess for the last two years. There is the assumption that he will maintain a high level of performance and durability through his age 36 season. I think it's likely that the Astros will have overpaid by $20M, and I think it's highly possible that they will end up overpaying closer to $30-$35M by the end of the deal.