Buehrle - Latest: 4-year extension

[danzig6767]

I'd consider trading Parra for the right rental,no way on Inman.Only chance i'd ever trade him is in some package for say a Crawford or another player that's under contract for another year or two at least.

[tigerbrew]

For me, I wouldn't trade Inman for Crawford.

[PeaveyFury]

we did produce Jeff D'Amico. He was rather solid in the big leagues, too.

 

Scott Karl's career was solid for a 4-man, although I don't understand why he gave it up, unless he had his money and had lost the drive.

 

I had mentioned D'Amico earlier, but he was 1993 and Karl was 1992, so earlier than the 15-year look back I was using.

 

That said, D'Amico had injury issues that essentially caused a 3-year gap in his career, and outside of a great 2000, he was pretty bad. Karl had one season where his ERA was under 4.4, and never had a WHIP under 1.4. While I understand that you were pointing out we developed some several years back, if Inman turns into something like either one of those guys, that's a big disappointment.

 

Let's look at Jack Z's first rounders from the drafts that could possibly help us (ie no one we drafted in 2006 would be helping the big club) in 2000-2005: You have four position players, 3 of which are everyday starters in Milwaukee, 1 is in AAA in another organization. You also have two pitchers, both of whom are out for the year and are having shoulder surgery. Considering that you also have two second-round position players on the Major League roster as well as an 11th rounder, it's pretty tough to say that we've had much better luck selecting/developing pitchers under the current administration.

[hauser42]

Trading Inman for a rental players is worth a chance at the playoffs or World Series. Team has a great chance this year to make a run, but we should wait so that the other teams in this division catch up to us or pass us next year?

 

Inman is a long ways from Milwaukee, and if he brings the final piece to a championship it is time to move on.

[Invader3K]

I would have no problem trading Inman if the Crew got something valuable in return. A team can't hold onto all of its chips forever...at some point, some need to be cashed in for things that can help us win now.

[Crewin06]

Well, since 1993 in terms of position players, you have:

 

Mark Loretta, Geoff Jenkins, Bill Hall, Ron Belliard, Corey Hart, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn, Ryan Braun.

 

In terms of pitchers, you have:

 

Ben Sheets.

 

Ouch.

 

Way to take half of my quote, anyways good point So before you had the Prince, Hardy, Weeks, Gwynn, Braun, Hart Barrage of the past 2+ Years the tally looks closer to

 

Lorretta, Jenkins, Hall and Belliard compared to Sheets

 

Wow that is a huge Gap in talent. I think the pitchers actually win the all-star game appearances.

 

Can we agree that the Brewers were not good at drafting and getting up prospects during the 90's and early 2000's

 

So the Melvin Era pitchers have Villanueva (he was our prospect) , 3 homegrown pitchers in AAA that could contribute to most staffs right now in Gallardo, Dillard, and Thatcher. The gap closes considerably in the Arms vs. bats race. Even after those 3 graduate to the majors which they probably will either this year or next our next closest prospects that will make a big impact in the big leagues are probably 2 pitchers Inman and Parra.

 

So lets just agree that the prospect bats arrived before the prospect arms. Yeah it hasn't evened out yet but over the next 3 years I think it will be remarkably close to 1 to 1.

 

How about recently? Mike Jones, Manny Parra, Ben Hendrickson, Dana Eveland were all highly touted pitching prospects under this administration. Things haven't exactly worked out well in those aspects. And that doesn't even mention Mark Rogers, who's career never really got off the ground to the point where he was very highly touted to this point.

 

What highly touted position players have flamed out? Dave Krynzel.

 

Well Manny Parra is all of 24 and still in the system and pitching well. He'll probably make it to the show. Dana Eveland is all of 24? this year. And he did his job. He was a main part of a trade to aquire a starting pitcher and a starting catcher. Hendrickson was a headcase and never had the pure stuff of Inman or Gallardo and Mike Jones got injured.

 

Lets also note that none of those 4 ever showed the complete dominance of all levels of minor league ball with the ERA, WHIP, K's, and everything else that Gallardo and Inman have at the ages they did it at. They were pitching prospects but not THE PITCHING PROSPECT in all of minor league baseball like Gallardo and Inman are.

 

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I would rather stick with them and try to develop them than trade them away for instant satisfaction that won't really create that much of an upgrade.

 

I guess that's where the conversation starts and ends, then. If you don't see Mark Buehrle as much of an upgrade over Claudio Vargas, or Adam Dunn as much of an upgrade over Jenkins/Mench, than I don't know what to tell you.

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I guess your right. This is where the conversation starts and ends. I like production speaking you like the name recognition.

 

In Vargas's starts this year the Brewers are 8-2 and Vargas has a 3.6 ERA. Would Buehrle be an upgrade? probably. But what would he really improve? He would probably give us a slightly better chance of winning going forward but How much of a better chance and it is our 5th starter. Would I like to add Buehrle. Sure. But not at the cost of the best A+ pitcher in all of baseball and probably pretty soon the best AA pitcher in all of baseball. Inman is on the fast track. He will probably be in a position to be a major contributor during the '08 postseason and beyond. I don't want to give that up for 2 months of Buehrle.

 

As for Dunn. Yes he is probably a better option than Jenkins/Mench. But how much are the Brewers actually gaining to give up a starting pitcher, the best AAA prospect pitcher in all of baseball and another outfielder?

 

 

2007 Jenkins vs. Righties

.309 /.384/.577/.961

2007 Dunn vs. Righties

.321/.372/.581/.953

 

2007 Mench vs. Lefties

.311/.317/.459/.776

2007 Dunn vs. Lefties

.250/.321/.447/.768

 

2007 might not be a fair comparison so lets look at the 3 year splits from 04-06 to get a better understanding.

 

'04-'06 - 3 year split Jenkins vs Righties

.297/.366/.511/.877

 

'04-'06 - 3 year split Dunn vs. Righties

.253/.390/.560/.950

 

'04-'06 - 3 year split Mench vs. Lefties

.307/.379/.590/.969

 

'04-'06 - 3 year split Dunn vs. Lefties

.241/.359/.477/.836

 

Plus I would consider .75 Jenkins/.25 Mench to be a better fielder than 100% Dunn.

 

Now I am not stupid enough to think just because the splits are better that Jenkins/Mench is a better Left Field option than Dunn. However I don't really think that Dunn would be that much of an upgrade to that position to justify trading a decent starting pitcher, the best AAA pitching prospect in all of baseball, and another outfielder plus add salary to get a minimal upgrade at the position. Especially considering that we would be trading Gallardo to Cincinatti where he would be able to haunt us for the next 10 + seasons. It is just not a smart baseball decision for a small market franchise. So I guess you are right. This little difference in philosophies is probably where the conversation should begin and end.

[PeaveyFury]

Way to take half of my quote, anyways good point So before you had the Prince, Hardy, Weeks, Gwynn, Braun, Hart Barrage of the past 2+ Years the tally looks closer to

 

Why is it relevant to exclude players that fell in that time period when you keep touting the improvement in the scouting/development? Heck, if you go by the last 6 years from when our current scouting staff took over, you have Prince, Hardy, Weeks, Gwynn, Braun and Hart to NONE.

 

So the Melvin Era pitchers have Villanueva (he was our prospect) , 3 homegrown pitchers in AAA that could contribute to most staffs right now in Gallardo, Dillard, and Thatcher. The gap closes considerably in the Arms vs. bats race.

 

You most certainly cannot count on guys like Dillard and Thatcher to come up and be successful and stick in the majors. Just ask Ben Hendrickson.

I like production speaking you like the name recognition.

 

I couldn't care less about name recognition. Fortunately both that AND production are on my side here.

 

In Vargas's starts this year the Brewers are 8-2 and Vargas has a 3.6 ERA. Would Buehrle be an upgrade? probably. But what would he really improve? He would probably give us a slightly better chance of winning going forward

 

Of course if you look at career stats instead of like 10 starts in 2007, you'd see that difference as much bigger. Not to mention, Vargas goes to the pen and replaces the likes of Spurling, Dessens, or Capellan, and we get better there.

 

However I don't really think that Dunn would be that much of an upgrade

 

Jenkins is almost 33 and is really inconsistent. Mench has been sliding horribly the last three seasons already and is nearly 30. Dunn is 27 and just hitting his prime.

[Crewin06]

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Why is it relevant to exclude players that fell in that time period when you keep touting the improvement in the scouting/development? Heck, if you go by the last 6 years from when our current scouting staff took over, you have Prince, Hardy, Weeks, Gwynn, Braun and Hart to NONE.

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Because hitters usually move quicker than pitchers. And why do you keep leaving out Villanueva. He didn't pitch an inning above low Rookie ball before he got to the Brewers. He is a brewers prospect.

 

In the next 3 years you will probably see Yo, Inman, Parra, Dillard and Thatcher all be on the big league roster compared to zero for the hitters. Big deal. So the Hitters arrived before the pitchers. Laugh at Dillard all you want but he has succeded at every level. Maybe he won't be able to make the jump. However I wouldn't count him out and he will get plenty of chances to prove himself.

 

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I couldn't care less about name recognition. Fortunately both that AND production are on my side here.

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Actually if you looked at it. The platoon of Jenkins and Mench is outproducing Dunn in 2007 and It is damn close for the three year split. I will admit though Dunn would be a better option. But not that big of one to justify parting with anything of substance. I don't really care anymore. Like both of us have said we have differing philosphies on the way the brewers should develop this team.

 

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Of course if you look at career stats instead of like 10 starts in 2007, you'd see that difference as much bigger. Not to mention, Vargas goes to the pen and replaces the likes of Spurling, Dessens, or Capellan, and we get better there.

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Buehrle had a 5.00 ERA last season and his 3 seasons leading up to 2007 is a 4.00. While Vargas had a 4.9 ERA last season and a 5.11 ERA. Buehrle is doing it in the A.L while Vargas did it in the N.L. Their stats over the last year and a half are very similar but since Buehrle did it in the tougher league, I will admit he is the better pitcher. But that does not justify trading one of the best prospects in all of minor league baseball for 2 months of him. Maybe it does upgrade the pen by replacing the weakest link but in the post season the weakest link rarely gets to pitch and the 5th starter usually moves to the bullpen anyways. If you want to trade lesser prospects to try to upgrade the bullpen or rotation, I am all for it. However you don't trade 2 of the best prospects in all of baseball for marginal upgrades.

 

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Jenkins is almost 33 and is really inconsistent. Mench has been sliding horribly the last three seasons already and is nearly 30. Dunn is 27 and just hitting his prime.

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Really if what you care about is the future of this franchise in left field (that is why you brought up the age, right) You really think the Brewers would be able to sign Dunn in 1.5 years to a long-term contract and still keep around Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, Sheets, Hall and the rest of the group?

 

Lets just agree to disagree

[PeaveyFury]

Because hitters usually move quicker than pitchers.

 

Then where are all the pitchers from 2000, 2001, and 2002? Weeks, Hardy, Fielder, etc have all been here for basically three seasons now, you'd think some arms would have been here already. The ones that tried, failed here in Milwaukee (Hendrickson, Eveland).

 

And why do you keep leaving out Villanueva.

 

We're talking about players drafted by the Brewers scouting staff. That does not include Villanueva.

Big deal. So the Hitters arrived before the pitchers.

 

The jump between the majors and the minors is a big deal, and more so for pitchers. As guys like Hart, Fielder, Hardy, etc are dominating in the majors, you're going to have guys like Dillard, Thatcher and such just starting to get their feet wet. Assuming that all or even any of them will make the jump right away is a bad idea.

Because hitters usually move quicker than pitchers.

 

All the more reason why a guy in A ball like Inman isn't likely to be helping the team for another couple of years.

 

Buehrle had a 5.00 ERA last season and his 3 seasons leading up to 2007 is a 4.00. While Vargas had a 4.9 ERA last season and a 5.11 ERA.

 

You left our Vargas' 3-year ERA of 5.08. So you have Buehrle putting up a 3-year ERA of 3.95 in the AL and Vargas put up a 5.08 in the NL. Buehrle's a better pitcher by a large margin. That said, Vargas is a better pitcher than the guy he'd replace in the bullpen, which you didn't acknowledge in your post. It's not just upgrading the rotation, you're also upgrading your pen via a trickle-down effect. Similar with Dunn, you'd then be able to trade Mench and Jenkins for bullpen help. Considering that Mench and/or Jenkins will likely be gone after 2007, Dunn would probably be around a year longer than either of them anyway.

 

Really if what you care about is the future of this franchise in left field (that is why you brought up the age, right) You really think the Brewers would be able to sign Dunn in 1.5 years to a long-term contract and still keep around Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, Sheets, Hall and the rest of the group?

 

I brought up the age because Dunn is more likely to continue to be above average going forward. Mench is in the midst of a career tailspin that has taken place since 2004, and Jenkins seemingly alternates solid years with mediocre to bad years, and at 33 in a month, how much longer is he going to continue to be useful? If the Brewers don't re-sign him (or Buehrle), they get a first rounder and a sandwich pick to re-stock their minor league system. Then they can use it on some nice young hitters that can be contributing in say 2009 like Braun and Weeks (which is ironically about the time Inman would be fully ready to contribute), or they can draft a couple of high school pitchers that will be having their first of several shoulder surgeries in 2009 before being out of baseball in 2012. Either way, they should have options. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Crewin06]

Whatever Peavey.

 

We are not going to agree. We keep going around in circles.

 

I thought we were talking about Brewers Prospects and prospects in general making it to the majors. Not the scouting department. Villanueva is a Brewers prospect that has made it to the majors.

 

Another thing to note is that Fielder, Weeks, and Braun are all top 10 picks. The Brewers won't get as good of talent in the middle rounds. Now they could find someone as good. However the probability is not as high.

 

As for Vargas's 3 year stretch. I put it down. I just didn't label it. Isn't the last year and a half more important though. Whatever. I've conceded that Buehrle is the better pitcher. And it's nice that Buehrle would upgrade the bullpen. I just don't think it is needed. Especially with a 6 game lead, Brewers winning 8 out of 10 of Vargas's starts and Gallardo coming up at the end of the season to solidify the bullpen.

 

Either way I made my argument I am not going to continue this. It's wasted alot of my time and it seems like we are rehashing things said 5-10 posts ago. I would be all for making trades to make this team better for now and in the future, however it seems like you just want to make trades to make this team different.

 

We'll see what happens at the deadline. Go Brewers.

[PeaveyFury]

I would be all for making trades to make this team better for now and in the future, however it seems like you just want to make trades to make this team different.

 

It's lines like this that make no sense to me. You've already agreed a couple times that Buehrle is considerably better than Vargas, so how in the world is that making a trade just to 'make the team different?' That's nothing more than a back handed insult.

 

But anyway, thanks for an interesting and civil discussion up to then.

[Weirdos19]

Here's my idea...

 

Jenks and Mench for Dye

 

 

The Sox can use the platoon for the rest of the season and exercise Jenks 2008 contract if they want.

 

Since I don't see DM extending Jenks through next year, we would be giving up expiring contract for expiring contract, right?

 

The Sox get a much needed outfielder for next year, and we pick up a guy that could really help us for the rest of this year.

[UWRyan428]

I would imagine the reason they don't have much interest in resigning Jermaine Dye is because they have Ryan Sweeney waiting in the wings for next year....or Jerry Owens.....or Josh Fields if they end up keeping Joe Crede. Thus, outfielders are far from a necessity for the ChiSox.

[paul253]

if he keeps this up, I cant imagine it would take much to get him, especially if we pay all of his salary. I'd bet two mid level prospects would do the trick, and I'd be all for it

[PaulRigdon]

Am I wrong or were the brewers in the Dye sweepstakes back in '05 when he was a free agent? Then the whitesox swooped in and signed him out of no where?

 

So if we traded for him is there any chance that we sign him to a couple year extention until LaPorte is ready?

 

The lineup would be pretty awesome with Dye in there

 

Weeks

Hart

Hardy

Fielder

Braun

Dye

Estrada

Hall

 

WOW!! Make it happen Dougie!

[endaround]

People are really overestimating Dye. He had an MVP type season last year, sure but that was way out of line with his career. His career line:

.275/.337/.483

 

Hardly anything to get really worked up about.

[PaulRigdon]

better than having Mench/Gross ever on the field

[endaround]

No, not really.

[Oldcity]

Yeah I wouldn't have any interest in Dye at this point. He's not really that good.

[TheCrew07]

I'm all for maximizing talent for the 4-5 year window we'll have here, but why on earth would a small market team trade away inexpensive talent?

 

We can aquire 1 or 2 free agents max, the rest of the players will have to come from in house. You want trade away 12 years of 2 players who could have valuable contributions for 2 months of a good but declining pitcher and 2 months a hitter who's way the wrong side of 30?

 

Why don't we trade Inman, Salome, Mench, and Escobar for Roger Clemens and Bobby Abreu if that's criteria?

 

If you're giving up cheap young talent for a stud, you want to be able to control that pitcher for awhile, not for 2 months.

 

World Series? I'd love it, but it's far from garunteed even with Buehrle. Whomever said these are video game trades is correct, would DM's job be safe when we're 60-102 in 3-4 years after making a deal like this? Why would he mortgage the future against the present, the present which contains a very young team that predictably is up and down, like most young teams are.

 

I'm sorry I just don't want a part of any rent a player deals that cost top talent. It's not in the best long term interest of the franchise, and a good case can be made that it's not in the best short term interest of the franchise either.

[Vgmastr]

Ken Rosenthal just listed the Brewers as one of the teams interested in Buehrle during the FOX pregame show.

[jackalope02ca]

I would hope we would go for it if the price is right.

 

If they are willing to take some of our 2nd tier prospects like Parra and Jackson and something else let's get er done.

[dadofandrew]

If the Sox are just looking to dump salary and would not ask much, I think all of us are for picking up any improvements to the 25 man. Mark B would certainly improve the staff, without a doubt.

[Never Outhustled]

Buehrle pitched injured last year, it was an anomally. He is the guy he has been this year, and his numbers would be even better in the NL. He would give the Brewers a 2nd legit stud next to Sheets. However, I don't see it, as there will be teams that need him way more than us, and they'll be willing to give up more prospects than us.

[UWRyan428]

What exactly does everyone think the price would eb for the Brewers, besides $3mil approx.?