Sizing up the Giants

[liveforoctober]

I know this is early... we are a month and change away yet... but I'm trying to eye up our first series and decide how it will fall.

Lincecum vs Suppan
Cain vs Gallardo
Johnson vs Parra

We beat up Johnson pretty good last year and given his nerves pitching for a new team I'm not too worried about that 3rd game. Cain and Gallardo should be good, and the first game is about as lopsided as an opening day pitching matchup can be.

A few questions. Will 3rd base be a true platoon from the get go or will it be Bill Hall's job to lose? If a straight platoon, Bill Hall won't see starting action until The Big Unit takes the mound.

The Giants starting staff is actually very impressive (sans Zito) ... but their bullpen looks like it could be a weakness. Get the starters out of there early!

I am of the opinion that our AAA lineup is more formidable than the Giants opening day lineup... so as long as Gallardo and Parra don't implode, I think we are safe looking for 2 out of 3.

Thoughts?

[BrewCrewWS2008]

I think we got the Johnson in the bag, Gallardo is better than Cain i think, alot more consistant at least so that one is close. Suppan vs Timmy L, ouch that could be ugly but Brewers did beat him up pretty good last year also. Brewers like good leftys, its when they go against crappy 6.56 ERA guys or never pitched in the majors before type of guys that kill them.

[PlayerHader]

Depending on how the spring goes I would think that Bush and Looper have just as good a chance at starting opening day as Suppan. How do these guys traditionally pitch in the spring?

[Brian the Automator]

While Soup's starting the S/T opener, I think it was supposed to be lined up for Yo to go on opening day... At least that's what I heard on the radio.

[liveforoctober]

I was under the impression that Macha has made it clear that Yo wouldn't be throwing opening day to alleviate any additional pressure of him knowing he is the staff ace.

[SeriesFinale]

I've been hearing out here that Johnson could actually probably be their #5 this year. We might see Sanchez or Zito instead on the third day.

 

In the two previous seasons I've been here, I've seen the Brewers get swept (late August '07) and sweep the Giants (right after the AS break '08). Afterwards, both series seemed like linchpins for how the season ended up turning out. In '07 they seemed gassed and then coughed up the Central lead a few days later; in '08, it seemed like they were really beginning their march.

 

This series doesn't seem nearly as "crucial" going in, for obvious reasons (I do like how they're getting one West Coast series out of the way early); I'm just hoping they avoid getting swept if only for selfish reasons, and I know they can take at least one.

 

Manny's the X-factor here, though.

[Dmiles23]

I was under the impression that Macha has made it clear that Yo wouldn't be throwing opening day to alleviate any additional pressure of him knowing he is the staff ace.

In the quote from Macha about this, he said something along the lines of "it's less than a 50% chance he will start opening day." The "less than 50% chance" part is what puzzles me. Ok, say it's a 40% chance he starts opening day. Doesn't that leave each of the other 4 starters an approximate 15% chance of starting... thus Gallardo being the favorite?

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

While Soup's starting the S/T opener, I think it was supposed to be lined up for Yo to go on opening day... At least that's what I heard on the radio.

That is the way I calculated it too that Yo is set-up to pitch opening day. But as Ben Sheets pointed out a couple springs ago when the same situation was pointed out to him that he was lined up to opening day, "counting is just counting."

[brewerguy71]

Way too early to start speculating on this for sure. A guy can have an awful spring and throw 6 shutout innings on opening day. You just never know.

 

As far as a Brewer vs Giants pitching match up goes, clear edge goes to the Giants. The Giants have one of the best rotations in all of baseball, the Brewers have one of the most questionable. The only guy I would give Gallardo an edge over on the Giants staff would be Zito. Yo has the potential to be one of the best young pitchers in the game. Lincecum and Cain are already there at that point. Sanchez has the benefit of having a full season under his belt where he performed well and Johnson has experience. Gallardo definitely has the stuff and the potential to be a top pitcher, but I need to see a full, solid season out of him before I am a buyer.

 

The most fun one to watch imo would be a Parra Sanchez matchup. Both young, early in their career, with upside potential still.

[Ennder]

As far as a Brewer vs Giants pitching match up goes, clear edge goes to the Giants. The Giants have one of the best rotations in all of baseball, the Brewers have one of the most questionable. The only guy I would give Gallardo an edge over on the Giants staff would be Zito.

 

I pretty strongly disagree with this.

 

I'd take Gallardo over Sanchez any day of the week at this point and most days I'd take him over RJ too. I'd take Parra over Sanchez as well. I'd take every single pitcher on our team over Zito. Not to mention we have a huge edge on offense at this point.

 

Sorry but saying Sanchez has proven more than Gallardo at this point is just being a pessimist. Sanchez can't throw strikes and has a career ERA over 5 in a weak hitting division in a pitchers park. Gallardo has a sub 3 ERA outside of one start in Coors.

 

Gallardo would most likely be the Giants #2 SP, Parra would be their #3 or #4. Bush/Looper would be their #4 most likely. Suppan would be a #5. Why you think we are unproven as a rotation yet you think Sanchez is better than Gallardo is just baffling to me.

 

Lincecum is a stud.

Cain is an ok #2 (4.17 career ERA on the road, that park holds in a lot of HRs for him every year)

Johnson is a good #3 but could break down at any time.

Zito and Sanchez could fall in as an acceptable #4 but the last few years both of these guys wouldn't make our rotation given their actual results.

[SeriesFinale]

Yeah, Gallardo is most certainly not the #5 on the Giants' staff, although I agree that top-to-bottom, they have a stronger rotation.

 

Again, I'll be happy with one win this series, although I'd prefer two since the Brew Crew has to start the home season against the Cubs right away and I'd hate to be three back of them in the first week (although it's not the end of the world, obviously).

 

The Brewers taking all three would be ideal of course (and our offense does seem light years better than theirs, provided they don't have Manny by April 7th), but I can't imagine this year's series here will be nearly as satisfying as last year's: a Brewers' sweep, I get to see CC pitch (and dominate) for the first time, a Brewers' comeback, a Prince Splash Hit, Parra beats Lincecum...it was really great.

[fondybrewfan]

Given each of the Giants starters will be making their 1st start it is probably unlikely that any of them make it past the 7th inning, so what does their bullpen look like? It is probably a little bit a a blessing that we play a team with a very good rotation in the 1st series because they won't be as effective going late into games as they would say 2-3 weeks into the season.

[Teatoe993]

I was there for that series too. So much fun. I'll be back for games 2 & 3. What should I expect weather-wise Series? I froze my butt off the last time. Don't want to make that same mistake.

[Ennder]

Brian Wilson - Closer (below average closer)

Bob Howry - Setup (decent setup guy coming off bad year)

Jeremy Affeldt - lefty (decent pitcher, not just a LOOGY)

 

bunch of mediocre guys - middle relief. They do have some upside guys in this MR group but it is always so hard to know what to expect out of younger guys in the bullpen so can't really comment.

[SeriesFinale]

I was there for that series too. So much fun. I'll be back for games 2 & 3. What should I expect weather-wise Series? I froze my butt off the last time. Don't want to make that same mistake.

I'd bring a decent jacket, maybe even a coat! It's always within a thirty-degree range of temperature in this town, no matter the time of year, but it gets much closer to the lower end of that spectrum down by the water, and especially for those evening games.

[rluzinski]

As far as I can tell, the notion that the Brewers offense struggles against any segment of the bad/inexperiences starting pitchers is a myth. Also, if we want to analyze the Brewers' prospects for this series, we have to consider offense, defense and the bullpen. Collectively, that's much more important that the starting pitcher.

[sheetskout]

Hopefully the old sentiment that pitching often starts the season slowly holds true. I also think that the Brewers have had at least some success against Lincecum. I also hope Johnson faces Parra in a battle of lefties.

 

Can't wait for the first series!

[danzig6767]

The Giants are just a hard organization to figure out what the hell they are doing since Bonds retired. Here they bring in Randy Johnson, some older relief pitchers, and Renteria, but they still have what looks like will be a terrible offense. They could end up having a nice rotation, but why bother spending money on multiple older pitchers if they weren't going to add anything to their terrible offense.

 

Usually in the case of a team that was as bad as San Fran last year, i'd say they should have just tried to rebuild and get younger. I think that's what the Giants should have done, but given how bad the NL West was, it wasn't impossible to think the Giants could make a run at the division if they had made enough and correct additions. To just spend money though on some veteran pitching, but not add any very badly needed big bat or two, all they did was half-asss things to where they should be a better team, but not enough to do any real damage, so what's the point?

[CheezWizHed]

1st: Even with the rotation setup now, I don't believe it will be the same come the start of the season.

 

2nd: We don't do so bad against Lincecum (well, so far...):

 

G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP

4 4 0 1 2 0 0 0 24 5.25 22 15 14 3 11 0 27 1

 

He is also better away than at home:

I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP

+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+

Home 28 28 0 11 6 0 0 0 183.1 3.49 157 73 71 14 71 2 205 3

Away 30 29 0 14 4 0 2 1 190 2.84 147 69 60 9 78 4 210 5

 

Although, he does prefer pitching at night and does lights out in March and April:

I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP

+-+------------+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+------+------+----+----+----+---+----+---+----+---+

April/March 6 5 0 4 1 0 0 0 36.1 1.73 35 7 7 1 15 0 40 1