Brian Roberts

[Samurai Bucky]

I'm sure that the Orioles wouldn't want to part with Roberts, but how would something like this look (just a SWAG):

 

Brewers Get:

2B Brian Roberts

 

Orioles Get:

IF Graffanino

SP Bush

AAA Starting Pitcher (sorry... my familiarity with the farm system isn't that good).

 

Weeks would get moved to a bench role. Gallardo would move up to the fifth starter.

 

Lineup:

 

2B Roberts

RF Hart

3B Braun

1B Fielder

SS Hardy

C Estrada

LF Jenkins

CF Gwynn

P

 

Just a thought....

[schwaby131647185073]

Ok I have couple things, one being Where does Rickie go? Ya he is slumping , but to go out and get another guy to start over him would tottaly kill him. How would that help him. He just needs to play PERIOD!!!! The second is why do you insist on moving HArt out of the lead-off spot. Since his move there Hart and the team have flourished. Keep him there, if it aint broke dont fix it.

[ryanbraun75]

unless you plan on him playing left field, i don't want him because rickie will work it out and he will be fine.

[jackalope02ca]

If you could swing a deal for Roberts without deleting from the current starting lineup you have to do it. We have Gallardo to step in to a starting role and from what I've seen of him so far he is an upgrade on Vargas and possibly Bush already.

 

Who cares where Ricky goes. Roberts is an upgrade now and we are fighting for a playoff spot. If Ricky can't make a quick adaption to the outfield he would be great trade bait to bring in a reliever and an upgrade on Bush or Vargas to the starting pitching. Make him a pinch hitter for a month and see if the wrist heals up.

 

People talk about competing for the next 3-5 years with what we have. There is no guarantee that we will be in it every year with the guys we have. Injuries, slumps, off field problems all could and will happen. Ricky isn't helping us now and now is when we need him. We are in it this year and need to pull out all stops to go for it now. If it means sacrificing part of the future so be it. Anything less would simply be unacceptable.

[apereira2222]

why would the Orioles want to trade for a veteran utility infielder? Since they are not contending, Graffy has no value to them.

[Brian the Automator]

[ why would the Orioles want to trade for a veteran utility infielder? Since they are not contending, Graffy has no value to them. ]

 

It's not uncommon for a player like him to be a throw-in replacement, as in the proposed deal, the O's would be getting two players who they would control for a while.

[endaround]

Not sure Roberts is that much of an upgrade. Sure he is having a nice season, but thats due to his BA being .322 versus a career average of .284. That 40 point difference is all due to a BABIP of .357 versus a career of .317. His power right now is right at his career average. So I'm not sure his BA is maintainable.

[Big Reed]

Endaround, what's not to like? I think a batting average of .284 is having a nice season, and you're finding fault with his .322 average ?

 

if you're going to bring stats into your argument for or against a player, i believe you should use more than just one stat. This is why I hate the use of stats to judge a player. Because you can always find at least one stat a player doesn't exceed in.

 

When I look at Robert's stats I see something totally different. I see a player who's been very consistant for the past 5 years. he's good for 20+ steals, 30 doubles, 80 runs, 60 walks, 80 kos, a .280 average, a 340 OBP and 8 errors. Roberts' career numbers for the past 5 seasons provide a nice basis of what to expect. if he hits 50 doubles, or has a .322 average, that's gravy over and above what you would expect.

 

I think if you are going to trade for a player, you make your decision and expectations based on what the player has done over the course of the last 4 years rather than what he has done lately. foolish trades are made by gms drooling over somebody who was hot for a month or one year. i doubt the braves have lowered their trade request value for Andrew jones just because he's off to a slow start this year.

 

brian roberts would be a nice addition to the brewers. he's also having a nice year. I don't understand how you can say that you are unsure he can maintain his BA. Surely, he won't maintain his current average. but he should very easily be able to maintain a .280 average. Combine that with his steals and fielding, and he makes a very nice addition and a huge improvement over our current second baseman. Roberts can also play shortstop and dh.

 

it's clear to me that Weeks needs some type of wake-up call / evaluation. this is Weeks' third season at the major league level. one would expect some improvement and more consistancy in his game. We've seen a lot of flashes or what "MAY" come in the future. but flashes of what "may " come don't win ball games. Consistancy does. I hate to bring up the name Biggio. Biggio was definitely never a superstar. But he was consistant.

 

I think Brian Roberts' best stat is his consistancy. You know what you are getting. he has a nice norm, and he's not going to deviate much from it.

 

Would I look at Roberts as the Brewers' long term solution as a starting second baseman? No. I would look at him as a stop gap filler for this year. I also have a little place in my heart to see the brewers acquiring Mark Loretta. this is not to be meant as a slam against Weeks or reserve inflieders Counsell and Graffinino.

 

I don't believe the brewers' recent slump against the Pirates and Nationals should dictate a major trade or mass overhaul of personnel. I don't believe we should give up on Weeks. but winning teams are ones who make adjustments. Starting hart and bring up Yo and braun were adjustments, not moves made out of desparation. it would appear to me additional adjustments- not wholesale changes are in order.

[Brian the Automator]

I've swung around now to the point where I don't think Weeks is helping this club. Optioning him if a clear upgrade rental was available doesn't sound like such a bad idea to me.

 

Most people seem to be saying now that Weeks's injury isn't going to be at 100% at any point this season.

 

Assuming the asking price isn't too high, what's the worst case scenario? Weeks goes down and mashes, and the team has to DFA Graffanino at some point? It's win-win to me.

 

I'm a huge Weeks fan, but this team needs a bigger shot in the arm than his OBP and lack of SLG is providing right now.

[JoeHova]

I like this deal. I wonder if Baltimore would go for it? Like Brian said, it couldn't hurt to give Weeks some time in AAA to get it together, especially if the team can come up with an excellent replacement like Roberts. Remember that Roy Halladay was once sent down to refine his mechanics and came back better than ever. I think the same could happen to Rickie.

[endaround]

The point is Roberts only has an OPS above 800 due to his BABIP being so high. If he were to hit his career numbers going forward, they are:

 

.281/.352/.409

 

Graffanino's career numbers:

 

.268/.336/.381

 

Roberts is obviously a better player but he isn't that much better. Clearly not worth giving up a pre-arby starting pitcher for.

[Brian the Automator]

He had a .902 OPS in 2005... So, the question is, who's the real Brian Roberts?... Is his speed getting him in on some of that BABIP action on infield singles?

[endaround]

His 2005 was different. His BABIP was .343 that year so it was high, but mainly his ISP was .201 where his career has been .124. This year its at .122. He's also showing way more patience this year that before. Not saying Roberts is a bad idea, I just don't know the cost in acquiring a guy with three years left is worth it. when Loretta is out there with similar numbers at a lower cost.

[Invader3K]

I like the idea. Roberts would be a great stop gap until Weeks can get his act together. Sending Weeks down to AAA for a while wouldn't be the end of the world for him. The Brewers are in "win now" mode, and unfortunately Rickie is a little bit behind the curve at the moment.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I would do this. With Weeks having no clue at the plate currently, coupled with Hall on the DL indeterminately, the offense could surely use a shot in the arm. Roberts is not a bopper, but he is a nice offensive player, and given his age comparable to Graffy, I'd expect Roberts to stay the same, maybe slightly improve, while Graffy is probably safely on the downswing of his career at this point.

 

Anyways, if it's only for the rest of this season, I still see Roberts outproducing Graffy by a decent margin for 70 some games.

[dadofandrew]

As End pointed out, you'd be trading Graffy for himself, and throwing in a good SP for nothing. The only thing you'd pick up is a bit of speed, and Dean Taylor is not around to overpay for that.

[danzig6767]

As End pointed out, you'd be trading Graffy for himself, and throwing in a good SP for nothing. The only thing you'd pick up is a bit of speed, and Dean Taylor is not around to overpay for that.

 

While i don't agree that Roberts isn't an upgrade over Graffy,i wouldn't give up Bush given i have hope Weeks will get better this year.I do wonder why though people so often use career stats when comparing players instead of the last few years of a player?

 

If we were looking to trade for Sosa or Maddux,would it really be wise to use their career numbers over more recent history?Or say Carlos Guillen who is clearly better now than his career stats would indicate.Roberts career numbers are dragged down by quite a few at bats early in his career when he wasn't as good as a player as he is now.So why use stats that take into account over 1000 of his at bats when he was still developing as a player instead of focusing more on what a guy has done say the last three years?Whether it's an aging player on the decline or a guy in that 27-30 range who is quite a bit better now after early struggles in their career,why is their career numbers a great gauge of what they are now as a player?I see this alot on these boards and just don't get it.

 

Say Weeks rebounds and had a very good next few seasons of .850-.900 OPS or more.If we were offered a trade for Rickie,when looking for equal value in return would you base Weeks value on what he did the latter few seasons after he finally put it together or use his lesser career numbers which included the trials and tribulations of a young kid learning to adjust to big league pitching?

[endaround]

Roberts pretty much put up his career numbers last year.

 

2006:

.286/.347/.410

 

So no, I don't think using his career numbers is that bad of a projection.

[Big Reed]

I prefer to use a players' numbers over their last 3 years and then compare them to that player's numbers for their career. if the past three years are better than the career, then I say go after that player.

 

I think Roberts is a huge upgrade over Graffy based on his speed and defense. Stolen bases mean more to me than OPS does. I think I'm probablly the only guy at brewerfan that likes Pierre. The Dodgers seems to be winning games this year. the Yankees were winning games when Damon, jeter and AROD were stealing bases. And yes, I like Crawford too. he steals bases. One of the rerasons I like Weeks, Hart and braun is their ability to steal bases.

 

Endaround made a good point, and I would like to echo/highlight it. He asked why trade both Bush and Graffy for Roberts when Loretta could be had a lot cheaper.

 

The Astros originally signed Loretta as insurance at third base. if as endaround suggests, loretta could be had for a cheaper price, I say go for it. And I'll echo brian's comments. I think Weeks needs a couple of weeks/month away from the majors to get his game baclk on track. Right now, Weeks is helping nobody.

[danzig6767]

Roberts pretty much put up his career numbers last year.

 

And in the year prior his numbers were much better,the same for this season.I'm positive if you totaled all his at bats from 2005 through this season,they would be much higher than his numbers from 2001-2004.I'm to lazy to exactly calculate his last roughly 1500 (2005-2007) at bats vs his first 1500 (2001-2004) given he has nearly 3000 at bats,but by rough estimation

 

First 1500--.265/.333/.360/.700

Last 1500--.305/.375/.460/.830

 

The reason for that is simple,he's a better player now than he was the first four years he was in the league.Not that this should be a suprise to see a young player get better as he matures physically and gets experience.

 

Everyone can use what standards they prefer when evaluating/comparing players,i just in general am not a big fan of using career stats when evaluating a player in the present.Unless the stats for a player are very consistant from year to year with not much trending either way,all career stats tell is past performance and can very often tell a false story to what given players are in the now.

[rluzinski]

Everyone can use what standards they prefer when evaluating/comparing players,i just in general am not a big fan of using career stats when evaluating a player in the present.

 

Many projection systems only look at the last 3 years, weighting the most recent season more than the prior 2 (like 60/20/10, for instance). I liek to use Tango's "Marcel" system, because it's the simplest and least subjective:

 

LINK

 

Here's what Robert's preseason projection was:

 

.292 / .360 / .442 / .805

 

Compare that to his actual line so far:

 

.322 / .405 / .443 / .848

 

I could see expecting something around this for the rest of the year:

 

.300 / .375 / .425 / .800

 

That's obviously very valuable.

 

He's gets $6.3M in 2008 and $8M in 2009, so I'm not sure what Melvin would do about that:

 

LINK

 

I don't see Baltimore wanting to trade him and I don't see Melvin wanting to deal with a 2B that's signed through 2009, though.

 

If Weeks' recent struggles is due to nagging issues, he should just be shut down. I personally think we'll see an upswing in Weeks' production, however.

[hauser42]

Brewers Get:

2B Brian Roberts

 

Orioles Get:

IF Graffanino

SP Bush

AAA Starting Pitcher (sorry... my familiarity with the farm system isn't that good).

 

Baltimore has no reason to make this move and they are not getting the value for Roberts. Would need to include a rock solid SP prospect to get this done.

[qrk10000]

How can anyone even compare Graffy to Roberts? Graffy has never played a full season, is five years older, and is nowhere near the hitter that Roberts is. Roberts had a terrific, all-star season in 2005, a respectable, slightly above average season in 2006, and is having an all-star season this year. He hits well, gets on base, scores runs, and plays good defense. He even has been able to post a decent .OPS. Plus he does it all in the tough, AL East. I have a hard time justifying that Weeks is any better than him at this point. Roberts would be a huge addition and could be an amazing leadoff hitter for us as we march towards the playoffs.

[Invader3K]

You know what's nice? That we're able to talk about trades like this, and they aren't ludicrous to think about. You couldn't say that even three years ago.

[qrk10000]

Amen, Invader. It is a wonderful feeling.