What kind of bat do you draft?

[colbyjack]

Lawrie switching to 2B full-time certainly is an interesting development (kudos to X ellence for calling that one all along). It puts a premium prospect as a premium position (relatively speaking) and makes nearly every position in the system strong.

With the usual disclaimer that first base is lacking in some talent, the disclaimer being that a few players may eventually move there, and I must say that while I still believe Prince Fielder's time in Milwaukee won't be as long as we would like it to be, him signing a two-year deal this offseason changed my opinion of him, at least given his connection to Scott Boras.

Catcher of course has Lucroy and Salome, with Zarraga a favorite among "don't forget about me" conversations. At second, Farris gives the organization depth as a solid prospect, and of course Weeks, despite his critics, is still with the team. Third base is an obvious glaring hole, but even if Mat Gamel can't handle the position defensively, Taylor Green should be able to settle in nicely there. Shortstop is solid, and if J.J. Hardy isn't traded to make way for Alcides Escobar, he could always move to third base, or even second (as could Escobar).

Braun isn't going anywhere in LF for a long, long time, where Cole Gillespie provides depth, with the ability to play the other OF positions as well. Center has Lorenzo Cain with Cutter Dykstra, Lee Haydel and Logan Schafer several years behind. Right field is a little more iffy, although Corey Hart is young and plenty talented since Erik Komatsu and Caleb Gindl both offer the organization what is sorely needs in left-handed bats, but both have serious overall upside limitations.

Obviously I'm not talking about pitching here, which is always a need, but I bring up the Lawrie switch to second base as it pertains to the draft to ask you what ideally would be the best player the Brewers could draft. I'm not necessarily looking for the response to be, "the next Mike Schmidt," and again, teams don't necessarily draft for immediate needs, but the depth in the system does continue to give the Brewers an advantage in that they can continue to draft the best player available, or at least take some risks along the way. Does this depth allow the team to possibly take a different approach by drafting a player that has solid defensively skills with a questionable yet promising bat? Does the team need to address a certain position (centerfield, third base, catcher) that may appear to have depth but essentially hasn't been truly addressed and proven at the big-league level?

[SenatorShriv]

One thing that I find interesting is that it was only a couple years ago that we were talking about the glut of first basemen in the system (Prince, Nelson, Hart, etc...) and Sexson / Overby at the MLB level. These things seem to work themselves out overtime, so I'm not too worried about being too stacked at any given position. That being said, I'm not all that interested in drafting first basemen since they seem to be fairly easy to find at the MLB level (aging veterans or pure hitters blocked at other positions seem to be able to make the transition fairly easily.) So unless there is an absolute steal of a first basemen available when the Brewer's pick, I would look at other positions.

[brewerguy71]

For me, its not a question of their bat, but about body size/type.

 

If a guy is in the draft pool for a given year, I figure he can hit. Heck, even great fielding/bad hitting catchers/SS/CF have value in their bats.

 

I would love to have a guy who is 6'0" - 6'2", 190 to 210, with quick feet and quick hands, who bats right handed and has at the very least gap power and can hit to all fields with good strike zone discipline. This way, the body can fill out, the player can add power, and with that quickness in the feet and hands can play anywhere from SS to 3B to any outfield position depending on speed and arm strength.

 

I think one of the weaknesses of recent Brewer drafts is that they have tended to focus a ton of time on power and power potential and forgotten everything else like speed and defense and strike zone discipline.

 

As for Lawrie, I had thought all along that he wouldnt materialze as a catcher, and am indifferent on him as a second baseman as well. I think he is best suited for 3B or RF, and his bat plays well at both positions.

[colbyjack]

One thing that I find interesting is that it was only a couple years ago that we were talking about the glut of first basemen in the system (Prince, Nelson, Hart, etc...) and Sexson / Overby at the MLB level.

 

That's a very good point. More recently it was also believed that the team had a glut of third basemen (Braun, Gamel), one of the team's bigger positions of weakness (at least currently at the MLB level). I think this point alone is strong enough to make sure nothing is really changed, other than possibly some philosophical differences with Zduriencik and Seid, but it still is fun to think and talk about.

 

I brought up this point somewhat at a good time, since BA followed their top 100 prospect list with their top prospect list position-by-position (subscribers only). The team is definitely lacking in pitching, or at least advanced pitching, so the absence of Brewers outside of Jeffress isn't surprising. It is nice to see 3 catchers make the top 25.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-pulse/2009/267683.html

[madbad2000]

I would still take the biggest impact bat regardless of position. 1st baseman would have to be a special bat as I see that as the easiest to fill. I do not disregard defense as worthless. Just better upside with big stick/weak d vs. strong d/weak bat, especially in higher draft picks. I would take the best hitting prospect early as I see that as the safer of the high picks. Since we are picking lower in the 1st round, I would budget the same amount of money on the draft and take a chance on a pitcher (or 2) that fell into rd 2 and 3 due to signability. I would probably continue to do similar to what the Brewers did early this year with taking an impact bat rd 1 and then a bunch of high ceiling pitchers early. Can never have too much pitching.

[TheCrew07]

I agree with everyone who's talked about the best bat possible theory, it doesn't appear that you can teach someone to hit, and if they aren't able to hit, they don't have a future. I realize that an arm and speed isn't coachable either, but I think they can draft bats and focus more on defensive improvement in the minors. Most players know their bat is the ticket and have said as much in interviews, but I'd like the organization to put more focus on defensive development and injury prevention.

[Never Outhustled]

What kind of bat do you draft?

 

A lefthanded bat. As Patrick shows, we are well stocked at each position, but any future Brewers team we project continues to be very righthanded.

 

Braun isn't going anywhere in LF for a long, long time,

Actually, I think he could move as soon as next year, but to RF. As you've stated RF isn't completely clear in the future, but I think if it isn't Hart out there, its Braun.

 

Gamel is a total wildcard in predicting future Brewers lineups. He could end up in LF, 1B, or in some alternate universe, actually make it at 3B.

 

Luckily, many of the college bats the Brewers could consider with there 1st and sandwich round picks are lefthanded sluggers. Ben Paulsen, Blake Smith, and Tommy Mendonca interest me. Unlike so many players we've drafted, or even guys we considered drafting, Paulsen and Mendonca are top notch defenders. We've never really had the oppurtunity to draft a plus defender that could still slug.

[Brian the Automator]

I've never been a big "draft for need" guy. While, realistically, the Brewers could use a true catcher with an awesome left-handed bat, the fact of the matter is that no matter what you end up, you can always make a trade to fill a need. So, I think the Brewers should simply draft the combination of the best bat and athletic talent, no matter what position we're talking about... with the emphasis on the "bat" part, as that's the part that always "sells" when you're making a deal.

[Never Outhustled]

I've never been a big "draft for need" guy

Nobody is. The question wasn't what we should draft, but "to ask you what ideally would be the best player the Brewers could draft"? I think its a fun exercise, and I think that in the past this way of thinking has helped us unveil the Brewers intentions before the draft a few times in recent years.

 

 

I think one of the weaknesses of recent Brewer drafts is that they have tended to focus a ton of time on power and power potential and forgotten everything else like speed and defense and strike zone discipline.

I think the only weakness Brewers drafts have had is the lack of early selections. I think they've done an amazing job when you consider Jack Z and the Brewers only had 13 picks in the 1st 2 rounds of his 1st 8 drafts. By comparison, the Twins drafted more top 2 round pitchers in 2004 than the Brewers did over that 8 year time span. The Twins drafted 25 players (signed 23) over that same 8 year span. That, to me, shows what a truely great job the Brewers did.

 

If we look at rounds 3-5, the Brewers faired poorly the 1st few years, but now have a bunch of prospects from those rounds. Gamel and Salome are poor defensively, but Salome was actually drafted for his defensive tools, and Gamel could be a worthwhile defender at another position. Lucroy threw out 46% of basestealers last year. Brewer has bigtime range at SS, and nobody has more speed. Gillespie has terriffic strike zone discipline.

 

I think the Brewers have drafted a wide variety of quality position talent.

[splitterpfj]

My first reaction is to request a future leadoff hitter, regardless of position. I wouldn't want to see them take a guy just because he's fast, and then tell us he'll be the leadoff guy in a few years, but if they could find a kid with good OBP skills, etc, and start grooming him for that spot right out of the draft, I'm all for it.

 

I know the team didn't get as many picks as they had expected, etc, but they do still have some extra picks to play with this year....I'd repeat last year's approach - BPA, and then lots of arms. They'll always have to develop as much of their own pitching as possible, and pitchers get hurt....so grab a bunch while you have the chance.

[Brian the Automator]

Nobody is. The question wasn't what we should draft, but "to ask you what ideally would be the best player the Brewers could draft"? I think its a fun exercise, and I think that in the past this way of thinking has helped us unveil the Brewers intentions before the draft a few times in recent years.

In that case, a college catcher with a big lefthanded bat.

[madbad2000]

I'll say third base. I think we could use a stud 3rd baseman in the system. I'm assuming Gamel doesn't stick. I also think that Green isn't a true stud. He'll be solid and there is a lot of usefulness in that. He could probably handle other infield slots if needed. Catching is always a need, but I see a top notch 3 bagger as a luxury we could draft and move as fast as he can through the system unabated. Even a catcher would have competition with Lucroy and Salome at the upper levels.

 

It would be nice if he batted left handed. I don't care as long as he can hit.

[TheCrew07]

Well they had a perfect player for that role in Brantley but obviously he's gone now. They are not too many guys with that kind of skill set floating around MiLB or MLB for that matter, that's a tough role to fill.

 

If you're one to believe the studies on the "perfect lineup" then what we're looking for is our biggest BA vs OBP split plus speed in the first spot. Weeks does fit that role perfectly in a perfect world, however as I've said in the past I think he'd do better mentally out of the 1 spot, I have nothing to back it up other than my gut feeling. Sort of like how hitting in front of the pitcher bothers Hardy... I know the spot in the lineup shouldn't matter, but if it matter to the player, then there is a difference. I believe Weeks mentioned that he wasn't fond of batting lead off either, but I don't recall where I read that.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree completely that the answer is (always) BPA. If I could craft this player, he bats LH, throws RH, can handle the MIF, & has a strong power/eye combo.

 

Now, since that's completely vague & pretend... I'd like to see the Brewers focus on position players with strong OBP skills. That's vague too, but for a tangible example I personally would trade some of a guy like Hart's gap & HR power for stronger BB skill. Clearly when you have the chance to draft a power bat with the ceiling of a Fielder or Braun, you just go for it. But throughout the non-elite draft picks, I'd really like to see perhaps some upside sacrificed for organizational OBP strength.

 

Lawrie, for another example, imo was a great pick. Fielder is one where the braintrust kinda said 'damn the torpedoes' & just went with his huge upside (no pun intended). While I won't refine my point to say I'd like to see a 'leadoff hitter of the future' drafted, I think that making OBP a huge organizational priority makes divining that future leadoff hitter so much simpler. Guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, while clearly not as valuable as a Braun or Fielder, are huge keys to building teams that are a step above the competition.

 

I hope that makes at least a tiny bit of sense... I swear all these thoughts were clear in my head...

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers don't need to go searching for a leadoff type. They just drafted a player born and breed to bat leadoff. BA has him in our top 10. Its Cutter Dykstra, a patient hitter with power to force pitchers to nibble, and great acceleration for baserunning.

[colbyjack]

Sorry to nitpick, but Ellsbury isn't a particularly strong OBP player. He's better than Hart (which isn't that difficult), but I'm guessing he's around average, if not slightly below, when it comes to taking pitches and drawing walks. I think he carries that reputation because he plays for the Red Sox, therefore everyone assumes he is a good OBP type.

[TooLiveBrew]

Very fair, colby. Just tried to think of a recently-drafted player... Ellsbury popped into my head. Clearly I didn't research that at all, and you're probably spot-on about the rep as to why I thought of him. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Tbadder]

I have to say I agree with most of the sentiment around here. Lets draft a high OBP, lefthanded hitting, powerful, 3rd baseman. (insert smiley face dude) And then a ton of arms. Keep throwing arms at a wall and some might stick.

[Hammer]

I think that you need to stick w/ the high OBP types of guys. Regardless of their position...OBP is lacking in this org.

[bjkrautk]

I say we draft nothing but switch-hitters....leave the platoon types to the other teams. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

While I'm only semi-kidding about switch-hitters, the problem with trying to draft for high OBP is that it's often offset by a lack of SLG. Ideally, I'd like to see a mix of guys who hit for a high average with marginal power (A Jeff Cirillo-type, or what we expected out of J.J. Hardy; good Avg / OBP with 15-20 HRs in a full season) with the sluggers (who have been far more successful in the organization).

 

It's hard to find a guy who can do both outside the first round(s) of the draft.

[TheCrew07]

I was thinking about this as well after reading Hammer's comments, and is it really possible to draft OBP? Maybe with college kids you can, but with the top HS kids like Lawrie it seems like you're always going to be drafting the hitting tools in average and power and hope the player develops good patience. The competition is so poor relatively speaking that it seems like it would be very difficult to do. A good eye/good strike zone judgement will not necessarily equal a patient hitter like Brantley and he's the only HS OBP machine we've had come through the organization outside of Prince, and his OBP is more a function of his power in my opinion.

 

I'm not convinced that the lack of OBP and defense is as much an issue on the drafting philosphy side as it is a player development issue. I guess the OBP issue could be a philosphy thing because we have so many aggresive hitters, but I like players that have an aggresive attitude, I'm not sure exactly how to go about changing their approach without changing their attitude. The team has had great success with it's position players, so I have a hard time changing what isn't broken. It's an interesting discussion topic none the less.

 

edit. Gah, I meant to say after rereading the thread after I read Hammer's comments. Also, I meant to suggest that I'm not sure OBP is a tool like Arm Strength where either you were born with it or you weren't. Some guys are naturals, but I think every player can get better if not good if they buy into the importance. The key though is keep making good contact, I wouldn't want to trade OBP for SLG as previously mentioned. I think with experience and confidence players can become more well rounded at the plate without sacrificing other parts of their game.

[colbyjack]

I was thinking about this as well after reading Hammer's comments, and is it really possible to draft OBP?

 

That's a very good call TheCrew07. And can anyone even think of an example of a team that specifically drafts for OBP? If you argue that the A's do, then I would argue that they're either not good at it, or it's not a very good idea since they haven't had much luck drafting and developing impact hitters in recent years.

 

I think good hitters naturally are more selective, and the team has drafted some good hitters lately. Is it possible to predict that guys like Corey Hart aren't going to be particularly good at working the count? And he could still get better in that area. Richie Sexson took a few years to learn the strike zone before he became a more patient, and overall more lethal slugger.

 

I like the idea, but I'm not so sure it's that easy.

[And That]

This may be a dumb question, but what's the statistical correlation between college OBP and pro OBP and college BB/AB and pro BB/AB? For how many guys is there a substantial difference, and for how many guys is there similarity?

 

I understand the problems involved with correlating college stats with pro stats, but I think it would be an interesting study, if it hasn't been done.

[Hammer]

Good strike zone judgement is something that should be able to be scouted...that is what I was getting at.

[Never Outhustled]

We've seen Oakland, St Louis, and San Diego all switch to drafting polished players with high OBAs. It ruined all 3 systems. I think we should only try to perfect our current system, not overhaul it.