Revisiting Cameron option

[kramnoj]

Per http://mlbcontracts.blogs...01/milwaukee-brewers.html the buyout was $750k, so I don't think it was a factor.

[JJHardy7]

This has probably been posted somewhere else, but if the Brewers did decline Cam's option could they still have gotten a pick? I'm not a huge Cam guy because he's not what the team 'needs', but I guess I can't hold that against him. I just don't see any other reasonable options. I think Braun in CF may have worked a few years from now, but he still has some room to grow in the OF. Cam did make up for some of Braun's growing pains last year.

[paul253]

I believe he was a type B, so had they offered him arby, I guess they would have gotten another pick. Had he accepted, I'm sure he wouldn't be making $10 million, thats for sure. I'm not super upset about having Cameron back, but we could have had him back for less. If the Yankees had signed him for $10 million, who knows, maybe they couldn't have gotten both Texiera and Sathatia and we would have gotten a first rounder instead of a second rounder for CC. Yeah Edmonds would have been a drop off in center, but its not like he's a butcher out there. Plus you'll have Gwynn on the roster who you can fill in as a defensive replacement if need be. If you could have had Abreu and Edmonds for $10 million, I'd rather have that than Cameron for $10 million. Hart could have played center when Abreu is in and rightfield when Edmonds is in. No its not ideal, but offensively its better. I think I pointed in another thread that offensively, Abreu was better than or about equal to Cameron in every major offensively category last year. Edmonds also had a tremendous year in Chicago. People just assume they will both drop off and Cameron will not.

[logan82]

I'm not a huge Cam guy because he's not what the team 'needs', but I guess I can't hold that against him.

 

I disagree. Cameron is a good player and every team needs good players.

 

I think I pointed in another thread that offensively, Abreu was better than or about equal to Cameron in every major offensively category last year. Edmonds also had a tremendous year in Chicago. People just assume they will both drop off and Cameron will not.

 

People have never argued that Abreu couldn't equal Cameron on offense. They have argued that Abreu is a complete butcher in the field and overall would have made the team worse.

[JJHardy7]

I disagree. Cameron is a good player and every team needs good players.

 

Oh I'm not saying he's a bad player. Cam is a good player. IMO he just doesn't have the offensive tool set that this team really needs and his skill set the team may have enough of at times. I don't think there were better viable options this off season.

[paul253]

They have argued that Abreu is a complete butcher in the field and overall would have made the team worse.

 

I don't think he is as bad as people make him out to be. What it then comes down to is are you willing to pay someone $5 million more who is far superior on defense but slightly worse on offense, or would you rather take that $5 million and spend it elsewhere? I would rather have spent that money elsewhere, on people like Edmonds, Crede, and/or Bobby Abreu.

[logan82]

I don't think he is as bad as people make him out to be.

 

He really is. He hasn't had a positive UZR/150 since 2003. His best in that time is a -4.1UZR/150.(-9.6, -6.3, -15.2, -4.1, -23.1)Link 2006-2008 Plus/minus has him ahead of only Dye, Hawpe and Cuddyer. Link

 

IMO he just doesn't have the offensive tool set that this team really needs and his skill set the team may have enough of at times.

 

Doesn't matter how he gets his offensive value. You may not like it, it may not be pretty, but it really doesn't matter.

[JJHardy7]

Doesn't matter how he gets his offensive value. You may not like it, it may not be pretty, but it really doesn't matter.

 

I think it does matter. If the Brewers offense struggles because they don't have enough regular LH bats, it does matter. I'm not saying the Brewers need a LH bat in CF or any particular position. I just think Cam's value isn't as much to the Brewers as it could be to other teams if that makes sense. The Brewers have a lot of free swinging RH bats...when they go cold we've seen how stale this offense can be.

[endaround]

Cameron is 3-4 wins better than either Edmunds or Abreu defensively. Abreu is actually likely closer to 5 wins after you move Hart to center. And Edmunds needs to be platooned. 4 wins for $5m is a bargain.

[logan82]

Handedness is secondary to actually being a good player. None of the LH options that have been presented this entire offseason are any better than what we have.

 

The Brewers have a lot of free swinging RH bats...when they go cold we've seen how stale this offense can be.

 

The "free swinging" has nothing to do with it. We need better OBP to get more consistent.

[TooLiveBrew]

when they go cold we've seen how stale this offense can be.

 

Ok, so your alternative is to bring in Abreu, whose putrid defense would cost runs all season long (same for Edmonds, just not as extreme), over taking the solid production from the lineup we already have, and the good defense in CF & RF?

 

I understand why people see Cameron & think it's a logical spot to improve and/or add a LH bat, but honestly some of the arguments made in support of non-Cameron options are a bit strange.

[paul253]

You may not like it, it may not be pretty, but it really doesn't matter.

 

I agree with JJ in that it does matter. Yes, a home run is a home run, but home runs are more valuable when someone is on base at the time. Since home runs are fairly rare, once every 5 or 6 games on average for someone hitting 27-30 home runs, it doesn't seem like the best strategy to sit around and wait for everyone to hit a home run. Rather, have someone that will get on base so when those people only get singles instead of home runs you're more likely to score a run. Over the course of a season's worth of at-bats, or about 550, you're talking about Bobby Abreu getting on base about 22 more times than Mike Cameron based on last years OBP. While it doesn't seem like a lot, it is 22 more chances Braun and Fielder would have to hit with someone on base and 22 more chances to score at least one run. He also had 14 more doubles than Cameron and a batting average .056 points better than Cameron in arguably the toughest division in baseball. Though we are in agreement that batting average doesn't necessarily mean a lot, getting a hit is more likely to cause a run to score than getting a walk because getting a hit allows most people on second base to score, while walking only means putting runners on first and second.

 

If Abreu would mean 4 less wins in terms of defense, couldn't we argue he'd mean 4 more wins because of offense? That would be a push, with maybe $4 million more to spend on someone else you can bring in to help get an extra win.

[kramnoj]

If Abreu would mean 4 less wins in terms of defense, couldn't we argue he'd mean 4 more wins because of offense?

 

No. Abreu was worth just over 1 more win on offense last year, and that was with Cameron missing a month.

 

If the Brewers didn't retain Cameron, the Yankees would have signed him. Signing Cameron would not have prevented them from getting CC. If they sign Cameron, they probably don't trade for Swisher (that's somewhat of a guess on my part, he may have been traded for anyway as insurance for Teixeira not signing). They still could have gone after Teixeira too. They probably at that point wouldn't have brought Pettitte back and gone with Hughes as their 5th SP.

 

It is still incredible to me that the Yankees are going to have Melky and Gardner as the CF for most of this year. I thought that maybe Cashman would have called Melvin again to talk about a Cameron trade with either Nady or Swisher coming back. At this point though, I don't know how much sense it makes for Melvin to do that, as there isn't really a need to spend any saved money on. I suppose he might do it just to free up cash for the mid-season move he would like to make, but only if the Yankees sweeten the pot.

[logan82]

Even if Abreu scored on all of those 22 extra chances, not likely.(probably closer to about 40% of those or 9 runs or 0.9 wins) That would only come to 22 more runs or 2.2 wins. Nowhere near enough to cover the his defensive shortcomings and the adjustment for playing a less premium defensive position.

 

The wOBA projections have Abreu and Cameron about 17-40 points of wOBA apart. 20 points of wOBA over a full season is about 1 win. About 0.85- 2 wins. Still nowhere near enough to cover the defensive difference.

[strawbossisevil]

But here's the thing Paul. Abreu was 23 runs below average in the outfield last season. So even if he does get on 22 more times, he would have to score all 22 times just to make up for the runs his defense would allow. This doesn't even include the fact that moving Hart to center will also be a step down defensively.

 

This is what people are trying to explain to you. That even though Abreu may be better offensively, his defense is so much worse than Cameron's that it more than offsets the value he'd bring the team.

 

Like some have pointed out, Cameron is 4-5 wins better defensively (meaning he saves 40-50 runs per season just with his defense in comparison to Abreu). Abreu would have to be 40-50 runs better than Cameron on offense in order to offset the difference, and I just don't see him doing that. Cameron's combination of solid offensive ability and top of the line defense makes him one of the more valuable players out there, and IMHO worth 9.25 million (I don't see it as a 10 million, because if we turned down our option he was going to get .75 million from us this year).

[Ennder]

Cameron isn't a gold glove CF, Hart is barely above average in RF and Abreu probably is only like 10 runs below average in the OF. Last year seems like more of an outlier than anything.

 

I still don't think the Cameron signing was a mistake.

[strawbossisevil]

Even if Abreu is only 10 runs below average, going from Cameron to him would be a drop of about 25 runs. Abreu might get on around 20 times more, but even if he scores half of those times, he'd still be a win and a half below what we could get from Cameron.

 

Also, all of this theorizing suggests that Abreu and Edmonds would even want to play here in Milwaukee, which is something we can't be sure about.

[logan82]

You also have to make an adjustment for Cameron playing CF and Abreu playing RF.

[JJHardy7]

Handedness is secondary to actually being a good player. None of the LH options that have been presented this entire offseason are any better than what we have.

 

Again, I didn't say Cam wasn't good and I've also said there weren't better options out there. Cam isn't ideal for this team, but picking up the option was the right thing to do.

 

The "free swinging" has nothing to do with it. We need better OBP to get more consistent.

 

I guess I don't understand what you're saying here. If you're a bit more patient at the plate, you will get more walks. If you're swinging at garbage, chancees are you will walk less. I think "free swinging" does have a bit to do with it in terms of patience.

 

Ok, so your alternative is to bring in Abreu, whose putrid defense would cost runs all season long (same for Edmonds, just not as extreme), over taking the solid production from the lineup we already have, and the good defense in CF & RF?

 

I understand why people see Cameron & think it's a logical spot to improve and/or add a LH bat, but honestly some of the arguments made in support of non-Cameron options are a bit strange.

 

I've stated that Cam was the best option...he's just not ideal. I'm not a huge Cam supporter, but given how the off-season played out I think the Brewers made the right move. It would've been nice to get similar defense, LH bat, and a high OBP guy, but to me that option wasn't out there...at least for a fair price.

[strawbossisevil]

Right, Logan, because Hart is likely to be a downgrade in CF (from his defensive statistics he put up in RF). So having Cameron on the team versus Abreu is probably worth 2 wins minimum. It's hard to think of too many players that we could get for $4-5 million that would be a two win improvement over what we already have.

[logan82]

I've stated that Cam was the best option...he's just not ideal.

 

Building a team isn't about "ideal." It is about trying to put the best group of players available together while working within a budget. Fielder isn't "ideal" at 1B. The only ideal team would be a team of the best players at each position.

[JJHardy7]

Building a team isn't about "ideal." It is about trying to put the best group of players available together while working within a budget. Fielder isn't "ideal" at 1B. The only ideal team would be a team of the best players at each position.

 

I don't know why you're picking my posts apart. I think part of the reason some fans want to 'upgrade' CF is because he's not ideal. That's my opinion. If you want to bring up budget and such, that's a different discussion. Maybe not picking up the option and offering arby would've been better for the budget, but given the lack of players that the Brewers need in CF Cam was the best option. I don't understand how you think some of things I'm saying aren't important. This offense is going to be hot and cold. When the bats are connecting on doubles and home runs the team will win. When the bats are cold, the lack of obp of team will hurt this offense. Does this make Cam a bad player? Of course not. He's a good player. The Brewers will just have to make a huge effort in being patient and getting on base since they didn't upgrade that issue from last year.

 

Building a team is somewhat about having the ideal players to fill a roster. Again, if you bring up budget the $10 million vs. what other guys got isn't the way to go. I guess you could've declined the option and signed a worse CF, but then used the remainder to upgrade somewhere else. I'm not a huge Cam fan due to how this team lays out, but it was the right move given the other options IMO.

[paul253]

I don't know if I agree with any of these defensive....minus 23 type projections. For one, they are just assuming that Abreu won't get to a ball that Cameron would and based on that assumption are assuming that it would lead to x many more runs being scored against you. Obviously Abreu and Cameron are not a match defensively. Sometimes there can be an over reliance on statistics, especially defensive statistics which can't necessarily be measured by direct numbers like you can on offense. To say that if we had Bobby Abreu in the outfield last season the opposing teams would have scored exactly 23 more runs and therefore we would have lost exactly 4 more games is not even close to an exact science. What if of the 6 of those supposed runs we would have given up came in an 12-1 win, making it a 12-7 win? What if of those 22 extra times on base he scored on 8 of them, 7 of which were in one run losses that would have eventually lead to wins? It just like there are too many x-factors when talking about how many extra wins or losses a team would have had if someone else had been playing defense.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Since Fangraphs has oodles of projection systems and UZR/150 data on player pages, it really isn't all that difficult to compare what you should reasonably expect from a Braun / Cameron / Hart OF vs. a Braun / Edmonds / Hart / Abreu OF.

 

For offense, I basically just averaged the linear weights WRAA projections from the various systems and then adjusted up to a full season's worth of playing time if the player was projected for less than that (even though its totally unrealistic to expect, say, Edmonds to play a full season, this will make it easier to play around with playing time allocations in the latter scenario). For defense, I used a 3-2-1 weighted average of the player's 3 most recent UZR/150 numbers. I gave Corey Hart a pretty generous -5 estimate as a CF because even though you'd expect an average corner OF to be 8-12 runs worse than average in CF, he is faster than most corner guys and did put up a positive UZR in his limited previous experience there. All units are runs above average (for offense, it's runs above an average hitter regardless of position, for defense, runs above position). Don't have to worry about positional adjustments here because we're not handing out MVP awards, just trying to figure out which arrangement would give the Brewers the most total runs. Braun is a constant, so I left him out. So here is everybody that matters, again, assuming a full season of playing time:

 

Player..........Offense..........Defense

Hart.................7..................0 in RF(-5 in CF)

Cameron..........2..................5 in CF

Abreu..............18...............-15 in RF

Edmonds..........7................-10 in CF

 

Okay, so now for playing time estimates. In the actual 2009 OF, I gave Braun 156 games (most players miss a few, but he ain't sitting if he can play), Cameron 135 (he's old, this is the mean of what the projection systems think he can do), and Hart 145 games, leaving 50 games for backup OF, which we'll assume are replacement level (TGJ, Nixon, Duffy, these are pretty much the definition of replacement players). In the hypothetical Edmonds/Abreu OF, let's give Edmonds 80 games, and Hart and Abreu 125 games each. That's 82 games in CF for Hart. Those are full games--in reality pinch hitting appearances, defensive replacements, and double switches would doubtless drive those totals up, but combined with Braun's 156, that gives you a full season's worth of OF games from just those 4 players (optimistic, but let's give the Edmonds/Abreu OF every conceivable chance to outperform the actual OF). Here's what you get for total contributions from everybody, adjusting the above rate stats for actual playing time allocated:

 

Real OF.....................Hypothetical OF

Cameron +6...............Edmonds -1.5

Hart +7......................Hart +3

Replacement -6..........Abreu +2

Total +7.....................Total +3.5

 

That's pretty close, actually. Given the margins of error involved with defensive metrics, you could probably call it a tie. The gap widens if you think that TGJ, Nixon, Duffy, or anybody else they can find can give better than replacement level production (I think Nixon can outhit replacement level, and I think TGJ and Duffy can probably give you some runs with their gloves). The gap shrinks if you think that a 3-2-1 weighting for UZR is unduly punishing Abreu and Edmonds for having especially lousy defensive seasons last year. On the other hand, both those guys are old, and neither is aging well. Cameron is old, too, but his production isn't slipping, and last year was actually the best he's had with the glove (by UZR anyway) in quite a while.

I guess if you really think lineup balance makes that big of a difference, I could see preferring the hypothetical outfield. I personally don't care, and I'm happy we just kept the better overall player in Cameron. But I don't think it matters much at any rate, because I doubt you could have convinced both Abreu and Edmonds to sign here given that there would be so few starts to go around.

[kramnoj]

For one, they are just assuming that Abreu won't get to a ball that Cameron would and based on that assumption are assuming that it would lead to x many more runs being scored against you.

 

It depends on the metric you are looking at. Zone Rating doesn't assume anything. It measures the balls that a player gets to, and compares where the ball was caught and how many fielders at that position catch that ball. It does the same for balls the player doesn't get to.

 

Sometimes there can be an over reliance on statistics, especially defensive statistics which can't necessarily be measured by direct numbers like you can on offense.

 

What defensive metric do you think doesn't rely on direct numbers?

 

It just like there are too many x-factors when talking about how many extra wins or losses a team would have had if someone else had been playing defense.

 

You could say the same about offense. If a player hits a home run and his team loses, what good did the home run do? ARod is criticized by some for having too much of his offense be in garbage time or padding of runs in lopsided victories.