Revisiting Cameron option

[paul253]

After seeing some of the players signing for what they signed for, I wonder if Melvin is really kicking himself for picking up Cameron's $10 million option. I got the impression earlier that Melvin picked it up with the intention of trading him, but found out that his salary was way too much for anyone to take on. I don't think there is any possible way Cameron would have gotten $10 million on the open market, and I think if they wanted him they even could have denied the option then offered arby, which would probably have led him to making closer to $7 million than $10 million.

 

Though there is nobody that even compared defensively to Cameron, I think the Brewers could have signed Edmonds, Abreu and Crede for about what they are paying Cameron, maybe a little more. Incentives could have pushed those numbers up higher, but if the players reached the incentives it would mean good things. Signing Crede could have pushed Hall back to super sub which means we wouldnt have had to sign Counsell. Offensively, I think it would have meant for a more balanced lineup at the very least.

 

I'd prefer not to make this a debate on whether Cameron is good for our team or not, as that topic has been beaten to death. Rather whether or not you think Melvin would still pick up the option based on what he knows now (what other players signed for, the inability to trade Cameron, etc.). Even if you want Cameron back but think we could have got him for cheaper.

[pitchleague]

Cameron is good for our team because . . . er, I mean . . . .

 

I think Melvin had to pick up the option at the time that he did because (a) like you said, he probably was thinking of dealing him, and (b) back in November/December he still had no clue how the market was going to play out. At that time, $10 Million for Cameron was probably a "fair" deal (this is arguable, of course, and in hindsight it was probably a mistake.)

 

I'll still take him, however. A proven veteran is always a good thing. You know what you're going to get from the guy (e.g. stellar defense, .250-ish avg. with 20-ish homers, some speed on the bags) which is a whole lot of different from depending on the unproven (i.e. Tony Gwynn Jr. or Chris Duffy).

 

And, like I said, a veteran leader is needed on a team of young guys. Some may argue that Prince, JJ Hardy, and Weeks could be leaders on the team since they are 3-year veterans (or so), but you really need some older guys that have been in the league for a number of years (read: more than three; more like 10) to show some guidance and leadership.

 

But that's just my opinion. I'm sure others will disagree, which is fine.

[snyttri]

I don't think it's so good to perfectly re-spend salary allocations. The worst spent salaries are on players who don't do much of anything. Players who are a bit overpaid but still produce should not ruin a team's season. Cameron can probably be counted on for good defense, some power with reasonable OBP, leadership and some continuity from the rare taste of Brewers success. If Cameron had been let go and signed elsewhere (the Yankees for $7 or 8 million?), surplus salary could have been spent on a player who turned out to be a multi-year liability, like a pitcher who is no longer effective. The Brewers might have gotten a a better hitting corner OF for less salary but failed to make a success of Hart in CF. Cameron won't be the bargain of the year but he probably won't be the bust of the year.

[paul253]

I guess I dont mind terribly having him. Knowing what we know now, though, I'd rather have Abreu and Crede for what they signed for. Also, if we wanted Cameron back, I have no doubt we could have got him back for a lot less than $10 million.

[kramnoj]

I got the impression earlier that Melvin picked it up with the intention of trading him, but found out that his salary was way too much for anyone to take on.

 

Is there something specific that led to this impression? I think there's zero chance of Melvin committing to $10M if he's not comfortable with that person being on the roster. The possibility of a trade with the Yankees was presumably in his head, but I doubt he picked up the option with that as his primary intention.

 

The unknowable variable here is how much the Yankees would have paid Cameron if Cameron had been a FA. I doubt that the Brewers would have got into a bidding war with the Yankees over Cameron.

[ILuvDaBush]

Don't you also have to factor in the buyout on the option? And honestly, considering the Yanks were the team most interested in him, and the complete lack of CF's on the market who play a serviceable (I'm looking at you, Jimmy E.) CF while maintaining an OPS of .800+, he should very well have gotten $10M. The reason the rest of the outfield market fell how it has is because there really isn't much that differentiates one OF from the next. Pat Burrell v. Adam Dunn (OPS hounds with questionable defense). Raul Ibanez v. Robbie Abreu (Over-the-hill OPS hounds). Milton Bradley v...the World (Paranoid OPS hound). Where is the OPS hound with the gold glove defense, who also is a clubhouse leader. Ibanez, who left Seattle as quickly as he could once his contract expired? RFK Abreu whose Phils were willing to PAY the Yanks to take off their hands? Pat the Bat who...well he's from the U. Dunn, the same guy who was letting it be known through his teammaters that he expected nine figures? The board game?

 

Would it be better to field an OF of:

 

Braun-Cameron-Hart

 

or

 

Ibanez-Hart-Braun

 

I know which way our pitchers lean in this debate.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Cameron and I'm glad we brought him back. If he can put up similar stats to last season with his good defense in CF and the leadership he brings to the club I think he will be worth the $10 mill. This season we will actually have him for April to which is nice. If he did strike out a little bit less that would be nice to. But I'm not betting on that.

[BREWCREW5]

I guess I dont mind terribly having him. Knowing what we know now, though, I'd rather have Abreu and Crede for what they signed for. Also, if we wanted Cameron back, I have no doubt we could have got him back for a lot less than $10 million.

If Melvin doesnt excercise the option...Cameron would have been wearing Yankee pinstripes a long time ago. He wouldnt have resigned with the Brewers.

[paul253]

Would it be better to field an OF of:

Braun-Cameron-Hart

or

Ibanez-Hart-Braun

I know which way our pitchers lean in this debate.

Defensively I'd rather have the first one. Offensively, though, if you could substitute Abreu for Cameron I'd do it in a heartbeat. Its not knock on Cameron, but Abreu provides a few things that we need much more than what Cameron provides. In this market, I just don't think Cameron would have gotten $10 million. Teams don't pay players for good defense, and while his offense is certainly good, is it better than Dunn or Abreu or Burrell?

 

Plus, its not just substituting Ibanez for Cameron. Its Ibanez/Abreu plus whoever else they can get with whats left of the $10 million. Maybe you take a chance on Crede. Or maybe you add Edmonds just in case Hart hasn't figured out those low and away breaking balls yet. Or maybe even Orlando Cabrera with Weeks moving to center (very unlikely but possible)

[twobrewers]

"Leadership" is the most overrated aspect of any baseball player.

However, Mike Cameron is the only player I have ever seen where I would actually pay extra for his "leadership". His presence appears to be a very welcome addition to the rest of the team. It isn't often the 5 or 6th best player on the team sets the mood - but Cameron seems to have the aura about him.

[RobDeer 45]

twobrewers, I couldn't agree more. So many times that phrase "leader" is tossed around with no regard. In this case, it is not. He is a great leader out there. He provides cover and education for Braun who is still coming in to his owin in LF. He provides profesionalism and fun in the clubhouse. I mean, come on, he's responsible for the un tuck em thing, what more can you ask for! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

If we let him go to FA he's gone, garaunteed. I'm glad we have him for another year and there isn't too much else out there that would give us what he offers.

[mothershipconnection]

The possibility of a trade with the Yankees was presumably in his head, but I doubt he picked up the option with that as his primary intention.

 

No way do you roll the dice on an unneeded $10MM player when the payoff is a potential return of Melky Cabrera. Melvin's not that much of a tool, though he probably isn't as high on the decision to exercise the option now that market prices have fallen.

[Ennder]

There was no full time CF out there. Signing an Abreu and moving Hart to CF would have been an absolute disaster given our rotation and infield defense.

[Yeti73]

I agree completely with twobrewer. The guy seems to make everyone around him more relaxed and they seem to have great chemistry. He seems happy in the role too.

 

A trade isn't out of the question come June either if the crew are stumbling. I, along with Vegas, have no doubt that the Yanks will be there in October, and I'm sure Hank would be willing to overspend in June to get that last piece, which for them will either be a backup catcher or a centerfielder.

[RightFieldCoder]

Are we slightly overpaying for Cameron? Yes. But we're also underpaying for the services of Braun, Hart, Fielder, YoGa, and to some extents Weeks, Hardy, and Parra. Being GM means playing a balancing game. Know where you're underpaying guys and use the extra money to overpay at other positions (ie Cam and the Pen ). I don't mind in the least since it's not a long term deal that might preclude us from resigning some of the "underpaid" players (cough Suppan cough). Not talking Cam's option and offering Arby might have led to another team deciding they can overpay him even more than what we did. And if that team was the Yankees, we would have gotten a 600th round pick for losing Cam.

[greeg35]

Melvin chose to pay a small premium to avoid the risk of not having him on our team and having to replace him with someone worse. Money well spent in my opinion. His defensive value over possible replacements alone makes him worth it. I happen to think his offensive game is competitive as well compared to replacements.

[JohnBriggs12]

There was no full time CF out there. Signing an Abreu and moving Hart to CF would have been an absolute disaster given our rotation and infield defense.

Why should Corey Hart be guaranteed a starting spot? They could have signed Abreu and Edmonds for what they're paying Cameron and rotated Hart in there in a semi-platoon as the 4th outfielder. Or they could have traded Hart.

 

They also could have moved Weeks to CF and signed gold glove 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson. That would have helped the infield defense considerably while also addressing offensive needs.

 

While they have maintained a decent defensive OF which is certainly worth something, they gave up a ton of flexibility in this market to do something to improve a heavily righthanded low OBP lineup.

[Gobias Industries]

I'd have to think Hoffman is a longshot if Cameron isn't here as well. That's purely speculation on my part, but from what I've read, Cameron seems to be one of the most well liked guys in the league.

[RobertR]

Honestly, I think it's because Cameron's contract is in 8 figures instead of 7 that riles up people. Even basically missing a month, he was well above replacement offensively and defensively. Baseball Prospectus had him at 5 wins above replacement. I don't think it's quite that high, but 3 to 5 is probably the right range. I find it hard to quibble with $10 million for a guy that could be worth 5 wins.

 

Yeah, he's not a left-handed, OBP heavy guy. But, he is better defensively than any of the Brewers other options and considering the Brewers don't have exceptional strikeout pitchers, outfield defense shouldn't be scoffed at. He's not the perfect fit for the team, but all indications are that he's not overpaid relative to his contributions, of if he is it isn't much, and considering the hit that the Brewers defense would take, I'm willing to accept his ill fitting offense. Especially as a one year placeholder for Lorenzo Cain.

 

Honestly, I have much more of a problem with Corey Hart and his .300-ish OBP of last year. Or Bill Hall's regression.

 

Robert

[endaround]

Edmonds in CF :-24.5 runs

 

Cameron in CF: 17.2 runs

 

Abreu in RF:-23.1 runs

 

This isn't a close discussion.

[logan82]

Hudson would have been a very small upgrade on defense over Weeks. Weeks would have been a huge drop off in defense even if Weeks was average in CF. Hudson is a small upgrade on offense over Cameron. The only way signing Hudson and moving Weeks to CF instead of picking up Cameron's option makes sense is if you have a very strong dislike for Weeks and/or Cameron.

[Nottso]

This is exactly why multi-year deals are done. This time, it worked out great for Cameron. 5 years from now, when Braun is making 10 million, it will have worked out *extremely* well for the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Moving Weeks to a new position and starting someone who has only one full season under his belt at age 31, is slipping defensively and doesn't hit that great outside of arizona probably is a 1-2 win downgrade over what we have now.

 

Now signing Abreu and Edmonds and platooning Hart could have worked out, but are you absolutely sure Abreu and Edmonds would have wanted to play here and that we would have won the bidding on them? What happens when Edmonds gets hurt? Those two are pretty close in price to just keeping Cameron and they come with more uncertainty and much worse defense(Edmonds has been below average statistically 2 years in a row now)

[pete]

And there is a significant chance that Weeks would never perform well as a center fielder.

[Thurston Fluff]

Now signing Abreu and Edmonds and platooning Hart could have worked out, but are you absolutely sure Abreu and Edmonds would have wanted to play here and that we would have won the bidding on them?

 

I'm not even sure Edmonds or Abreu will be better than Hart. Granted Abreu is likely to be better but Hart did have a higher OPS in 07 and Abreu is what he will ever be and Edmonds likely a lot worse than he was even last season. Hart on the other hand is very likely to improve on last season. I would think between the three of them Hart can be expected to improve the most from last year to this. If he learned how to hanlde the extra workload he got last year better there is no reason to think he can't put up his near 900 OPS of 07 again. Add in his much better base stealing abilities and I think it very likely Hart could be better this year than both Abreu and certainly Edmonds.

 

Someone asked this earlier but I didn't see an answer, does someone know what the buy out was? If it was in the millions and all we would save is a million or so for a lessor or equal player why not keep what we have?