Batting Order to start the 2009 season

[Gobias Industries]

Yes, he was one of the fastest. And Weeks was very pedestrian. But I believe it was just a timed 60 yd dash where they were in running shoes and clothes, so it meant very little baseball wise.

[Ennder]

I somehow doubt Hardy is fast off the line which is one of the more important skills for baserunning. If you really want to argue over these two I'd say Cameron is a better baserunner than either of them and historically has just as good OBP.

[homer]

I believe it was last year or a couple years ago when they tested speed and for some reason I remember Hardy being one of the fastest Brewers. I could be wrong though, I can't find the data to back it up.

I don't put any stock into that test at all. It was hand timed which is really inaccurate - not to mention there's no way to know if anyone really tried.

[Never Outhustled]

Weeks and Hardy are hardly slow runners.

Hardy and Hart don't even compare speed wise. Weeks has tremendous speed too, but under your line of thinking, thats wasted in the leadoff spot. Why is it OK to have Weeks steal batting 1st but bad to have Hart steal batting 2nd?

 

I would much rather see small ball played in the bottom portion of the lineup than the top.

What does small ball have to do with speed. Our pitchers have had no problems bunting slow guys to second in the past. I sure hope you don't plan on having Kendall bunt guys over and try to have the pitcher hit them in. The pitcher is the only guy at the bottom of the lineup that should play small ball.

 

Speed seems more important when you have guys who are likely to be hitting singles(Kendall, pitcher) than in front of guys who are likely to be getting extra base hits(Braun, Fielder).

Braun and Fielder hit just as many singles as Kendall last year, and a ton more singles than our pitchers. Also, I don't know why having speed in front of a double is bad. Slow players are less likely to score from 1st on a double. Braun and Fielder also hit more sac flies than Kendall and the pitchers, and its more likely a fast player scores on a sac fly.

 

Remember Hardy in 2006 getting gunned down at the plate by the defensively challenged Pat Burrel, and breaking his ankle in the process? He was batting 2nd that day, and was trying to score on a Carlos Lee single. Hart scores easily on that play.

 

 

Speed is only important offensively when the players are actually running the bases. Hart and Weeks will get more chances to run the bases in front of our hitters with the highest average. Thats Braun, Fielder, and Hardy, not Cameron, Hall, Kendall, and the pitcher.

[logan82]

Weeks has tremendous speed too, but under your line of thinking, thats wasted in the leadoff spot. Why is it OK to have Weeks steal batting 1st but bad to have Hart steal batting 2nd?

 

What I am saying is that when you build a batting order you shouldn't worry about speed until you have your top 5 in place, if then. There is nothing wrong with any player stealing as long as they succeed 70%+(approx) of the time.

 

Braun and Fielder hit just as many singles as Kendall last year

 

True, but they had many more extra base hits than Kendall or the pitchers.

[Loopee]

Opening Day line-up

 

Weeks

Fielder

Gallardo

Braun

Hart

Hardy

Hall

Cameron

Kendall

[Never Outhustled]

What I am saying is that when you batting order you shouldn't worry about speed until you have your top 5 in place.

 

I can agree with you on that. I don't think theres much doubt about who should be included in the top 5. My issue is, since we have similar hitters in the #2 and # 5 spots, the faster player would use his superior baserunning most often in the #2 spot. Hardy's lack of speed would be a lesser issue when used in front of a group of hitters who homer often but do little else in Cameron and Hall, and baserunners almost don't matter in front of Kendall and the pitcher.

[RobDeer 45]

What it comes down to is we want people on base and in scoring position when Braun and Fielder are at the plate. So puting these guys 2nd is really dumb. You don't want Prince batting 2nd to set the plate for someone (besides Braun). Also, the ultimate goal for your leadoff is to be in scoring position by the time Braun and Fielder come up. That's why Hardy is a great 2 hitter because he sees pitches and can bunt. The more pitches he can look at the more atttempts Weeks has to steal 2nd. Now I like Hart batting one but he's a good RBI guy and having him there gives us a big drop off in protection behind Prince. I think Hart is too valuable in the 5 spot and if he's not there Prince will not see the pitches we need him to see. So if you don't like Weeks 1 the only other viable option is Cam and I don't know what I think of that.

[zzzmanwitz]

That's why Hardy is a great 2 hitter because he sees pitches and can bunt.

 

Maybe I don't remember correctly, but I really don't remember Hardy bunting very often last year.

 

Pitchers Per Plate Appearance 2008

 

Mike Cameron - 4.24

Bill Hall - 4.22

Rickie Weeks - 4.14

JJ Hardy - 3.97

Ryan Braun - 3.96

Prince Fielder - 3.89

Jason Kendall - 3.62

Corey Hart - 3.47

 

I think that Mike Cameron would actually be our best 2 hitter. He has good plate discipline, hits many more fly balls than ground balls, and is an excellent baserunner.

 

Weeks

Cameron

Braun

Fielder

Hardy

Hart

Lamb/Hall

Kendall

[Never Outhustled]

That's why Hardy is a great 2 hitter because he sees pitches and can bunt

Ken Macha hasN'T won 92 games a year by using the run preventing method of bunting the #2 hitter. Plus, if that was a factor in who should bat 2nd, Hart is a better bunter.

 

Hardy doesn't see anymore pitchers than the average hitter. Hart numbers were down last year, but he normally sees a similar number of pitches as Hardy. I think we're all betting on seeing the real Hart this year.

[logan82]

The reason you put a guy like Fielder or Braun 2nd instead of 3rd is the third guy in the batting order comes up the most often with 2 outs and nobody on base. Small ball is a really bad strategy most of the time. Except for the worst hitting pitchers, nobody should ever sacrifice bunt except for in close and late situations.

[southpaw121505]

The reason you put a guy like Fielder or Braun 2nd instead of 3rd is the third guy in the batting order comes up the most often with 2 outs and nobody on base.

This is why I like Braun 2nd with Fielder cleaning up. Maybe Hardy 5th. Have our best hitters in the most important spots (2,4,5). Don't care who hits 3rd and 6th between Cameron and Hart. Weeks, Braun, Hart, Fielder, Hardy, Cam, 3rd, Kendall

[brewtank34]

When Hall plays...

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Cameron

Weeks

Hall

Kendell

 

When McGehee plays...

McGehee

Weeks

Braun

Fielder

Hardy

Hart

Cameron

Kendell

 

When Lamb plays...

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Weeks

Cameron

Lamb

Kendell

 

My favorite of the three is the 2nd option with Hardy inbetween Fielder and Hart. Everyone gets their protection.

[PrinceEatMeat]

You can throw out as many options as you want, but everybody knows what the lineup will be. It's slightly disappointing, but there will be two lineups.

Weeks
Hardy
Braun
Fielder
Hart
Cameron
Hall
Kendall

or

Kendall
Hardy
Braun
Fielder
Hart
Cameron
Hall
Weeks

I hate Kendall in the leadoff spot, but Macha apparently likes it. The first lineup is basically what we saw last year, and it actually isn't bad. However, Hart needs to hit like at the beginning of last season for it to work. It is essential to have protection for Fielder in this lineup. Cameron and Hall should be ok in the 6 and 7 spots. Anywhere else in the order and their high K totals could become a problem. I just don't think Kendall is good in any spot but 8. The only thing that could really be done is switching Hardy and Hart, but I don't think that's necessary at this time.

[Yeti73]

Princeeatmeat is probably right except. I wouldn't expect much change from last year's order. Still, I expect this team to put up a lot of runs this year. I hope we don't get the Cam leading off experience again. That sucked.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm elated Macha has finally decided to use my lineup, though I was suprised he tried it this late in camp. His reasonimg for trying it now is that he is finally sure that Hardy offers enough protection for Fielder. That sure worked well down the stretch last year.

 

I love Macha. He just has a winners mentality. He has "it".

[Gobias Industries]

I love how Macha is willing to change it up and try new things.

 

The only thing I'd change from his current lineup is flipping Weeks and Hart. Hart puts the ball in play on the first pitch so often I'm thinking Weeks is gonna have a hell of a time trying to steal a bag. Where as Weeks almost always goes deep in the count and would allow Hart plenty of time to pick his spot.

[sheetskout]

I love how Macha is willing to change it up and try new things.

 

The only thing I'd change from his current lineup is flipping Weeks and Hart. Hart puts the ball in play on the first pitch so often I'm thinking Weeks is gonna have a hell of a time trying to steal a bag. Where as Weeks almost always goes deep in the count and would allow Hart plenty of time to pick his spot.

I, for one, am not comfortable with a 6'6" hitter batting leadoff. If there's one thing that Weeks has shown is his ability to draw the walk.

[areacodes]

I, for one, am not comfortable with a .323 career OBP hitter batting leadoff. If there is one thing I don't understand is what height has to do with batting first?

 

The only thing I'd change from his current lineup is flipping Weeks and Hart. Hart puts the ball in play on the first pitch so often I'm thinking Weeks is gonna have a hell of a time trying to steal a bag. Where as Weeks almost always goes deep in the count and would allow Hart plenty of time to pick his spot.

Corey has some qualities of a typical lead off hitter (steals bases at a good clip, very good baserunner) and has shown the potential to have a pretty good OBP (.353 in '07) but I'd keep Rickie batting 1st because of his on-base skills. I believe that Hart could adjust by taking a pitch or two for Rickie, if needed, but I think a more sound strategy would be for Corey to swing at pitches he can drive no matter if they are the first or fourth pitch of the at-bat.

 

I love Macha. He just has a winners mentality. He has "it".

What is this winners mentality and how do you have "it"?

[Gobias Industries]

Corey has some qualities of a typical lead off hitter (steals bases at a good clip, very good baserunner) and has shown the potential to have a pretty good OBP (.353 in '07) but I'd keep Rickie batting 1st because of his on-base skills.

That is why I'm fine with Corey batting leadoff. I don't think he's going to have an OBP around .300 again. I think both Hart and Weeks will probably put up an OBP in the .340 - .360 range.

[thebruce44]

Just wanted to chime in about the 60 yrd dash people were talking about before. It was not Hardy that won it, it was Hart. And Weeks was second. Hart won because once he gets going, his long stride allows him to move very fast.

 

That being said, I still like Hardy in the 2 hole until Hart can prove that he can layoff bad pitches. Then I wouldn't be opposed to a switch because I think both are capable of providing Fielder with protection, and I like Harts speed ahead of Braun and Fielder. No way Weeks should move out of the leadoff spot though.

[areacodes]

That is why I'm fine with Corey batting leadoff. I don't think he's going to have an OBP around .300 again. I think both Hart and Weeks will probably put up an OBP in the .340 - .360 range.

I don't doubt that they have potential to be in that range, I just think that with Weeks ability to get on base without a hit (OBP over 100 points higher than BA for career) makes him a more valuable lead off hitter to the Brewers. I'd have Hart lower in the order to take advantage of his SLG... Of course I'm always open to changing the line up based on how the season progresses, so Hardy and Hart could be interchangeable.

[logan82]

The same season that Hart put up a .353 OBP, Weeks put up a .374 OBP. Hart's best OBP is almost the same as Weeks career OBP(.352). I think that Weeks ends up wit a higher OBP than Hart.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

This thread is 4 pages old, and none of the resident statheads has yet popped in to post the actual optimized lineup, at least according to current thinking. Guess we're all too lazy, or too tired of talking about something that has so little impact on the number of runs the team will score. I know I almost never post in lineup threads for that very reason.

 

Anyway, if you're not already familiar with what The Book has to say about lineup optimization, go here for the best brief summary I've yet read.

 

The first thing you need to know to optimize the lineup is who the best hitters are. I went to fangraphs and took the average of the 5 wOBA projections for all the starters, and here is what I found:

 

1. Braun .395

2. Fielder .391

3. Hart .350

4. Weeks .348

5. Hardy .345

6. Cameron .338

7. Hall .324

8. Kendall .300

 

For all intents and purposes, 1 and 2 are close enough to call a tie, and so are 3-5. Those definitely have to be the top 5 hitters, though. Your two best hitters should hit 2 and 4, so long as they are power hitters. Ours are. Fielder is the higher OBP of the two, so he's probably best for the 2 spot. But if you like Braun's baserunning there, you're not crazy.

 

Next we have to pick a leadoff hitter. Should be the third best hitter, but we've got a three way tie for that. So we need to pick the guy who is the highest OBP, lowest SLG hitter. That's Weeks, whose lowest projected OBP by any system is still higher than the highest projected OBP for either Hardy or Hart.

 

That leaves Hardy and Hart for 3 and 5. This is basically a pick 'em. But Hardy projects to hit more HR and fewer 2B and 3B, so I would give a narrow nod to Hardy 3, Hart 5.

 

From there, you simply arrange the hitters in declining order of quality. Except that national league teams are a few runs better off with the pitcher 8th, especially when someone like Kendall (no SLG) would be the 9 hitter.

 

Here is your end result:

1. Weeks

2. Fielder (or Braun)

3. Hardy (or Hart)

4. Braun (or Fielder)

5. Hart (or Hardy)

6. Cameron

7. Hall

8. Pitcher

9. Kendall

 

The organization won't do this for a couple reasons. They already tried the Kendall 9th thing, and it was viewed by the press and the fans as a failure. Why I still have no idea. And whichever of Fielder and Braun was asked to hit 2 would flip out, because they view it as a bunterriffic singles hitter's job. So, fine, as long as Weeks is the leadoff hitter, and 2-5 is Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Hart in some order, you're probably only talking like half a dozen runs short of perfect optimization (if that), and keeping the players and fans comfortable and happy probably trumps that.

[Gobias Industries]

That's an excellent post, and I agree with almost everything you said in that last paragraph.

 

Kendall batting ninth made perfect sense and it was working the way they drew it up, but still, it was scrapped. As far as I know, we never got an explanation as to why. And I'd love to have Prince or Braun in the 2 hole, but it's not even slightly realistic for the reason you mentioned.

 

I'd have to think baseball is still probably a few years away from a MLB manager using a lineup simulator and going "outside-the-box".