Tony Gwynn Jr for Otsuka was nearly a done deal

[foamboy1]

Well, it'll be too late in a couple weeks. The more Gwynn plays the more his value will drop.

 

I see it the same way. I think Gwynn's trade value is at an all-time high right now.

[splitterpfj]

I don't believe this rumor for one second.

 

First off, I think Melvin would do it anyway, and most importantly, I think Texas would want a young pitcher in the deal...they have no reason to be rid of Otsuka, they can be patient on this one.

[ryanbraun75]

first off, how do u explain the manny parra situation. DM told him to skip his start because he may get called up. I believe the reason that Parra was about to be called up was this deal. They knew they would almost be trading Gwynn to the rangers so they told parra he would get the call.

 

But when Otsuka got injured in his last game the deal fell through.

 

Another player that is gaining value is Lance Nix. He has 11 Hrs and 40 RBIs for nashville and his value is increasing too. The brewers have a surplus of players that have a lot of value and could get us a big name and i really hope that MA and DM take advantage and get us Dye, Griffey, Byrnes, Dunn or someone.

[PeaveyFury]

DM told him to skip his start because he may get called up. I believe the reason that Parra was about to be called up was this deal.

 

The Parra situation was definitely strange, but if the trade happened, Otsuka would have been on the ML roster too, and there wouldn't be room for Parra.

 

first off, how do u explain the manny parra situation.

 

Please, no AOL speak.

 

Thanks!

[brettac1]

I think ryanbraun75 nailed it and makes the rumor very believable. I think Rosenthal just worded his "scoop" incorrectly. The Brewers certainly don't mind trading Gwynn - but they want to trade him for a guy who isn't hurt.

 

Hopefully everything checks out with Otsuka and they can just do this trade. If they get Otsuka, I'm fine with carrying Nix as a 5th OF for a couple extra weeks until Hall gets back if they have to (so long as they don't start him). Heck, get Jason Botts from them, that guy crushes LHP's in AAA.

[PeaveyFury]

Well, ideally if they're trading Gwynn, they can get Lofton too. I'd imagine that the negotiations may have re-started and included Lofton and other pieces.

 

And yes, as previously said, a lot will depend on Otsuka healing during the break. I wouldn't be shocked to see something happen Thursday with both Texas and Milwaukee off.

[trwi7]

So what do you think would happen if this actually did happen and we got Lofton as well (with other pieces heading to Texas of course)?

 

When Hall comes back would you go with the Jenkins/Mench platoon, Lofton and Hart in the outfield, move Hall to 2B and send Weeks to the minors or would you send Lofton to the bench?

[brettac1]

There's a lot of variables there (Hall is back quickly, Weeks begins to hit), but I'd guess when Hall comes back it just goes back to Menchkins/Hall/Hart.

 

I am sticking to getting Botts, though. I don't see the major need for Lofton unless Hall is going to be out for a long time. If he's just going to be out for a couple weeks, I think they could get Botts (who doesn't have a ton of value being almost 27 in AAA) and use Hart in CF against LHP's and use Botts in a corner so they don't have to play Jenkins against them.

[splitterpfj]

Gwynn and Parra for Otsuka and maybe a minor leaguer I can believe, Rosenthal made it sound as though Gwynn for Otsuka was the deal....that is what I can't believe.

 

The told Parra not to pitch because he might be called up...who's to say that wasn't going to be in a Texas uniform?

 

IF Otsuka is ok, I'd love to see a deal for him, and perhaps Lofton, if Gwynn is headed to TX, I would imagine Lofton can be had, this could be fun.

[Big Reed]

A lot of deals are made around the all star week. this trade could happen sooner than expected. I have to believe melvin is thinking about the trade the reds made last year when they made a big trade and acquired an injured reliever who was supposed to be an integral part of that trade. I have to believe melvin is waiting to ensure otsuka is healthy for the long hall with no lingering problems that may resurface.

 

Any trades melvin makes will be focused on winning this year not next, so the guy we obtain must be healthy.

[UWRyan428]

Is Otsuka's value lower or higher than when the Rangers originally acquired him? I ask because it took a former number one pick and a guy who is making a run for the Cy to secure the reliever, along with table scraps. And in regard to Parra, maybe we finally found a taker for Vargas!!! One can dream...

[TheCrew07]

I doubt Manny will pitch into September, regardless where he is, his arm has never seen more than 138 innings and that was in 2003. They may cut him loose in the rotation next year and see how his arm holds up, but I don't see them pushing him this year if they don't have to. The trade thing would have been interesting, if he was to be included in the deal. I would have been a little unhappy letting him go as I still think he's pretty valuable, but at least it would have been to an american league team.

[Never Outhustled]

I wasn't interested in Lofton when he was 1st brought up by posters in another thread a few weeks ago, but now that it seems the Brewers have completely lost faith in Gross, I am. Lofton could start in CF now, and be the 4th OF upon Halls return, with Gross going down.

 

Problem is, Lofton makes $6 million this year. Aquiring Otsuka and Lofton would add about $3 million to the Brewers payroll if the deal happened at the dealine, and a little over $4 million if it happened now. To even out the deal, could Texas take Mench back? Joe Dillons 981 OPS in AAA easily translates to enough to replace Mench here.

 

Vargas to Texas also makes sense, as the Rangers are desperate for starting pitching, and Vargas would help them next year too.

 

Gwynn, Vargas, and Mench for Otsuka, Lofton, PTBNL

[danzig6767]

Balfour has been just ridiculous in AAA. He's pretty much making it necessary to call him up.

 

 

Like everyone else i'd be all over the trade,but i wonder if it didn't happen,could Balfour maybe come up to the bigs and suprise folks by being pretty damn good?

[endaround]

I'm not sure that they lost faith in Gross. RFK is one of the few stadiums that Gwynn's supposed defense is useful. If Gwynn continues to start after the break then there maybe issues.

[clancyphile]

Gross would be a steal - OK, his average is low, but he has taken his walks and has flashed a fair bit of pop.

 

In fact, he reminds me of Jeromy Burnitz.

[shelmark]

I have nothing against Gwynn, but I wish this deal would happen now and that Gross would get the time in CF. I think he has shown that if he is given some consistent time he can produce. OBP is around .380 with some pop.

[mothershipconnection]

Passing up this deal would be stupid. Otsuka + Gross is much better than Gwynn + Spurling, especially when Hall will be back and Gwynn will again be unnecessary while Otsuka could be a huge playoff piece and our closer after this year. Either that or Otsuka allows us to trade Vargas and promote CV to the rotation, which is another win for the Brewers.

[rpmeehan]

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Last year his OBP in AAA was .360. That translates to an OBP around .290 in MLB, which I believe is around what we could expect if Gwynn were to play every day.

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An OBP of .360 translates to .290 at the major league level? How do you figure. The guy consistently has an OBP 50-60 points above is batting average. That means even if he isn't hitting, he'll draw a walk or two. Which would you rather have? Kevin Mench batting .280 with an OBP of .285 or Tony Gwynn hitting .260 with an OBP of .315? Neither is very good, but the point is, he's already demonstrated pretty good plate discipline at the minor league level, where most players are just trying to show they can hit the ball hard somewhere. And the few guys that do walk a lot in the minors are the top prospects, who end up walking a lot cos minor league guys don't want to face them.

 

Let's review his actual OBP numbers. Because when I say 50-60 points, I too am projecting what I think his MLB numbers would be. His minor league numbers are actually much better:

 

2003 - .280 / .366

2004 - .243 / .312

2005 - .271 / .370

2006 - .300 / .360

 

Aside from a hiccup at Huntsville in 2004, those numbers look pretty good to me. The Southern League is largely regarded as a good pitchers' league...humidity probably having something to do with that. At any rate, he repeated Double-A the next year and did fine. I don't see why Gwynn can't hit at that level in the majors. He's a contact hitter. It's not like he's some power prospect with high HR totals because the opposing pitchers can't locate. He slaps the ball around. So what? How does that make him any less quality of a hitter. People put way too much emphasis on power numbers these days.

[dadofandrew]

I don't understand why folks don't think he compares well to Dave Roberts. They project into nearly the same player.

[danzig6767]

It's possible Gwynn might hit like Roberts,but i highly doubt that Tony would ever be the basestealer Roberts is.

 

Defensively i don't know how good Roberts is in CF,but i do think Gwynn looks to be an outstanding defensive player.Watching Gwynn play CF so far at least,he naturally takes great angles,goes back well,and has a nice arm.

[endaround]

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don't understand why folks don't think he compares well to Dave Roberts. They project into nearly the same player.

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Robert's career ISP is .102. Gwynn's ISP is half of that. That probably has a lot to do with it Al. so no, they don't project a like.

[dadofandrew]

Gwynn is nowhere near as good as he will be. I'd say Roberts/Gwynn will be a toss-up in a year or two. I certainly would not base much on Tony's few ML AB's. Both will be very good defensive players, and both will have decent OBP's and little pop.

[Never Outhustled]

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don't understand why folks don't think he compares well to Dave Roberts. They project into nearly the same player.

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For me, its not that they don't compare well, its that I'm just not impressed with Dave Roberts. Sure, he's better than Dave Hulse, but I think we're past , and will continue to be past that stage.

[endaround]

Ok Al. When Roberts is over the hill and Gwynn is in his prime they'll be equal.