2009 Minor league roster projections as of 2/09

[And That]

I first took a stab at '09 roster projections in this November '08 Farm Hops article, and I thought it was time to take another run. We have a lot more information now and have full rosters going in to spring training. I'm posting the Brewers' roster projection as well, but that's more for a basis of AAA/AA rosters than anything I want to focus this discussion on. Here are some points about the following roster guesses:

• Mark Rogers and Chris Capuano are not listed on any of the rosters because I don't know that they'll be healthy to start out the season. If they were healthy, they'd start at Brevard and Nashville respectively.
• Taylor Green will miss the first month or so of the season with a wrist injury, but once he gets back he'll be Huntsville's starting third baseman.
• I don't think that Brad Nelson or Hernan Iribarren will make the team, they are out of options and might be traded while they are on waivers. That's why they are not listed. Nelson is eligible to become a free agent if he clears waivers after removal from the 40-man roster. If Iribarren clears waivers, he'll likely be assigned to Nashville.
• If Iribarren beats out Tony Gwynn for a roster spot, Gwynn is out of options and would have to be put on waivers and removed from the 40-man roster. If he clears waivers, which I think is a likelyhood, he would be assigned to Nashville.
• I don't think the Brewers will keep Todd Coffey or Jorge Julio and almost certainly not both if everyone stays healthy. If they keep one or both and everyone else is healthy, it will probably be at the expense of Eduardo Morlan. I think the Rays will take him back if he doesn't make the Brewers' roster.
• The Brewers are very thin in OF depth in the upper minors.
• The Brewers have a ton of pitchers competing for very few open spots. Sam Narron, Mark Holliman, Richie Gardner, Brian Reith, Ryan Houston, Mike Burns, Steve Bray, Juan Sandoval, John Axford, Josh Wahpepah, Derrick Ellison, Reed Dickert and Wes Etheridge were not unintentionally discluded. Injuries will allow a few of these guys to make rosters, but a number of them (or others I have making rosters) will be cut.
• Beside Taylor Green, J.R. Hopf and Yohannis Perez are the only position players above rookie ball without a roster spot in the projection. An injury or two at Brevard or above would get them roster spots.

Here is (sorry for the image files... I don't feel like typing all this out at the moment):

 

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[Mike]

I'm posting the Brewers' roster projection as well. Is the above the Brewers' said projection or yours?

 

I do notice that this projection is different in some way, by position and/or player from the Nov '08 Farm Hops article.

 

Mike

[And That]

These are all my projections, except that my 9 month old loves Shawn Zarraga so she made me put him on there.

[logan82]

Lawrie isn't going to be starting at catcher?

[JoeHova]

Lawrie isn't going to be starting at catcher?

 

That's surprising to me too. I guess they think Salome and/or Lucroy will pan out. Or will Brett catch a little like how Rottino was transitioned to catcher in 2005 & 06?

[TheCrew07]

Lawrie isn't going to be starting at catcher?

The early reports from Spring Training have him playing 2nd base.

[Scooter1027]

Lawrie isn't going to be starting at catcher?

The early reports from Spring Training have him playing 2nd base.

I like it. It's not like our system is deep at 2B (using these depth charts, our other second basemen are Jason Bourgeois, Mike Bell, and Eric Farris), whereas we do have two exciting catching prospects. Even if you're a Weeks fan (which I am), you figure that by the time Lawrie is ready, he'd likely be just about up for free agency. Additionally, putting in the work to become a catcher likely will slow down the process of getting his bat to the big leagues.

[Tbadder]

Great news about Lawrie working at second. If he's that athletic I think he can be moved to 3rd eventually. I'd like to see Lorenzo in AAA this year. I'm betting he tears it up in Huntsville. Too bad about Nelson, woulda liked to see him get a shot, but cest la vie.

[logan82]

That's surprising to me too. I guess they think Salome and/or Lucroy will pan out. Or will Brett catch a little like how Rottino was transitioned to catcher in 2005 & 06?

 

Even if both pan out it doesn't hurt to have another guy in the system especially given the length of time it apparently takes to bring a catcher up through the system. We are a trade and a promotion away from not having any solid catching prospects in the minors if Lawrie isn't catching.

 

If Lawrie can handle 2B I don't think it would make sense to move him to 3B unless we already have a good defensive 2B. I guess it matters where Green ends up.

[DHonks]

I always liked playing both 3b and 2b, so I've never fully understood why they aren't more interchangeable. 3b requires a bit better reaction time and arm, while 2nd requires footwork (for DP's) and range. If Lawrie can handle 2b, he could probably handle 3rd. 2b might be a position for the low minors to work on his offense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him at 3b by AA.

[Never Outhustled]

When I was begging for the Brewers to draft Lawrie before the draft, it was as a 2B. I envisioned a righty swinging Chase Utley. Lawrie will need to play 2B fulltime to be ready defensivly when his bat is MLB ready, so I hope they don't mess around with other positions. I'd rather have him be an above average defensive 2B, than an average defender that can play multiple positions.

[NDBrewerfan]

I see you have Evan Frederickson listed as a middle reliever. Do you see him solely as a relief prospect currently?

[madrx]

Any chance the kids drafted last year such as Odorizzi or Lintz start at Wisconsin? I know Lintz had some issues, but Odorizzi seemed solid in limited action last year.

[And That]

I see you have Evan Frederickson listed as a middle reliever. Do you see him solely as a relief prospect currently?

No, I still see him as a starting prospect, but as a guy who may not be as consistent as the other guys in the rotation/piggyback spots. If he has a good spring and shows some ability to locate with velocity, Frederickson could easily be an every fifth day guy in Appleton. That whole staff should be pretty fluid and undefined with its rolls anyway, so even the guy I put in as their closer, Nick Tyson, will probably end up starting again at some point. So many of those guys are going to be inning limited, they'll have to regularly switch roles around a little.

 

I hope Frederickson is closer to the mid-90's guy he showed himself at his pre-draft workout, and not the mid-80's guy who pitched last season. If he can keep that velocity up, he'll be given every chance to succeed.

 

Any chance the kids drafted last year such as Odorizzi or Lintz start at Wisconsin? I know Lintz had some issues, but Odorizzi seemed solid in limited action last year.

 

Odorizzi definitely has a shot, especially with a good camp... if Appleton had one more roster spot, I would have put him there on the projection. He has good maturity and the odds of him seeing Appleton without ever seeing Helena are pretty good. Lintz is more of a longer shot - he's still more of a work in progress and growing into his body. High school guys like Blake Billings and Stosh Wawrzasek might have better shots than Lintz. Trey Watten, Rico Salmon, Dan Meadows and Adam Arnold would also seem to have better shots.