Bullpen Arms... Josh Kalk's (THT) Bullpen Analysis: reply #24

[sbrylski]

I too am excited about Swindle and am pulling for him to make the club. I also agree that Coffey and then Julio are good camp insurance in case of a couple injuries, but I hope they don't make the team over any of the other 8 in the running.

 

Kalks leaves out Morlan in his analysis, who I think will be given a good shot at sticking.

 

Given Hoffman, Villanueva, Riske, and McClung, I'd go Gagne, Morlan and Swindle as my last three with Stetter as first callup to get that second lefty.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I guess I don't really see either Stetter or Swindle as guys who would necessarily have to be used exclusively as LOOGYs. By FIP, Swindle's platoon splits in the minors have actually been somewhat wider than Stetter's, but that's mainly because of the absurd extent to which Swindle utterly annihilates LHB, not because he's bad against RHB. I'll feel better any time either of them faces a RHB than I ever did with Shouse.

 

And I'm definitely in agreement in hoping both of them make the team.

[chadomac]

I'd like to see:

 

1 Hoffman

2 Villanueva

3 McClung

4 Riske

5 Coffey

6 Gagne

7 Stetter

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm in for:

Hoffman

Villy

McClung

Riske

Gagne

LOOGy

Morlan/Coffey

 

I would think the first five are pretty fluid (Gagne should and will get a spot), while the last two are the questions.

[And That]

From this TH blog:

"Even Eric has to go out there and pitch and make the club. It could work two ways. If Gagne goes out and pitches real well, we could say, 'Hey, there's enough experience in the bullpen that would could carry a Rule 5 draft pick.'

"If Eric doesn't pitch well, maybe we need to get another experienced pitcher and we can't keep (Morlan). It could work either way."

Looks like Melvin is linking Gagne to Morlan. In that I'd like to think Gagne is better than either Julio or Coffey and in that I'd like to keep Morlan around, I hope Eric pitches well in spring and makes the roster.

 

Stetter and Swindle are pretty much equal to me, so it doesn't matter who makes it IMO. The other one will be in AAA in case.

[Scooter1027]

I would like to see both Stetter and Swindle; however, I could see where perhaps it wouldn't be necessary to keep two lefty specialists on the roster. Having Villanueva is like having another lefty specialist, in that his changeup has actually made him more effective against lefties (.235/.304/.412) than righties (.252/.319/.442) in his young career. That said, if Swindle and Stetter are just flat better than the other options in camp regardless of handed-ness (unlike Shouse, who clearly stunk against righties), by all means, keep them both.

If I had any say on such things, right off the top I'd be looking at Dillard in AAA, and Julio would be a guy on the outside looking in. Both would have to have huge exhibition season to make it, or injuries would force them in. I like Dillard, but with so many arms available, it might be smarter to have the depth in AAA to begin with, regardless of his spring. That would leave Morlan, Gagne, Coffey, DiFelice and one of the Swindle/Stetter duo then for 2 slots. If you assume just one lefty to start the year, then 2 of Morlan/Gagne/Coffey/DiFelice make it. Of that group, I would lean towards Morlan and Gagne, unless Gagne just has a terrible spring. I don't know a whole lot about Morlan yet, but I do know about Coffey, and he's nothing more than a mediocre at best bullpen arm. I'm a big DiFelice fan, but he's a guy who could also being the year in AAA, perhaps as SP depth. That could be particularly beneficial if the Chase Wright/Nick Green moves don't pan out.

[Ennder]

I don't view Stetter as a lefty specialist, he is just a LH RP. So I don't have a problem carrying them both. Regardless of how this turns out it is a nice problem to have. When somebody gets hurt or is ineffective we will have a replacement for them this season. Last year we just had question marks.

[Spidey]

Hey, new here on Bf.net!

 

I, too, like the 2 lefties in the pen, and I'm not as keen on Gagne at the cost. I'd like to see:

1. Hoffman

2. Villy

3. McClung

4. Riske

5. Stetter

6. Swindle

7. Morlan/Gagne

 

Julio and Coffey just scare me, and Dillard and DiFelice in AAA.

[chansen]

1. Closer- Hoffman ($6M w/ possible $1.5 in bonuses)

2. Set-up- Gagne... 92mph fastball to set up Hoffman= beautiful ($1.5M w/ possible $2M in incentives)

 

The rest:

3. McClung ($1.6625m)

4. Villanueva

5. Stetter

6. Riske ($4.25M)

7. Julio ($950K w/ possible $600K in bonuses) or Coffey ($800K w/ possible $50K in bonuses)

 

I see a battle for the last spot between Julio and Coffey.

Dillard, Aguilar, and DiFelice will be in AAA.

Swindle probably won't make the team

[wcswimmer712]

Hypothetically speaking, if Julio and Coffey do not make the team will they be forfeited to waivers? Or does the team have options left on both of them?

Because i would hate to lose some of our bullpen depth by giving jobs to Swindle or DiFelice (who both have options) then lose Julio and Coffey.

I'd like to see: Hoffman CL
Villanueva SU
Riske MR
McClung LR
Stetter LOOGY
Gagne MR
Julio/Coffey (Battle for the last spot)

[And That]

Julio has a non-guaranteed contract and Coffey is out of options, so if neither makes the Brewers' roster retaining both of them would be unlikely. Coffey might slip through waivers and end up being outrighted to Nashville, but I doubt Julio would stay around.

[ILuvDaBush]

Also if we don't keep Morlan, he's as good as gone, unless we work out a deal with the Rays for him. That's why I could see us giving him more of a chance than Julio. But Gagne would seem to be all but assured of a roster spot now.

[JJHardy7]

I'm really surprised at how high Dillard's PECOTA numbers are... He is my dark horse candidate to make the pen this year.

 

He's not really a dark horse. He just can be optioned to AAA so he probably will. Tim will play a big role in the Milwaukee bullpen at some point or another. He has MLB stuff and would put up a sub 4 ERA IMO this year. I just don't think he'll be on the club on opening day since he can be sent down.

 

Basically he suggests. Swindle (Leftie who can pitch still vs. RHB) Stetter (Pure Loogey) and yep, Gagne.

 

Stetter is not a pure Loogey. He can pitch multiple innings and at times like we saw last year can pitch well at the MLB level. If he's just a LOOGY for the Brewers, they'll be using him wrong. He did make some huge outs last year for the Crew. His major problem at times is control.

 

I'd rather them just keep Stetter at this point and that's not a knock on Swindle. Things will shake out in the first month or so with injuries or performance that he will be needed. I'd rather keep veterans and see how it all plays out. This isn't a bad problem to have.

[CheezWizHed]

I just don't think he'll be on the club on opening day since he can be sent down.

 

So do most people think that. Thats what makes him a dark horse candidate...

[JJHardy7]

So do most people think that. Thats what makes him a dark horse candidate...

 

I don't think that makes him a dark horse candidate to make the team. IMO he has the skills to be on the big league club. A darkk horse would more or less be a player who pitches themself on the team. Dillard would have to pitch lights out.

[Ennder]

I'd be shocked if Dillard makes the team so yeah I'd call him a dark horse. I think his odds are probably the lowest of anyone mentioned.

[areacodes]

1. Closer- Hoffman ($6M w/ possible $1.5 in bonuses)

2. Set-up- Gagne... 92mph fastball to set up Hoffman= beautiful ($1.5M w/ possible $2M in incentives)

I don't understand this obsession (not specifically you chansen) of having a guy who throws differently in front of your closer. If the closer and set-up man are facing the same batters than you're already in trouble. If you want a contrast in speeds to have any effect (and at that I'd say it is minimal at best) you'd need to do that an inning or two apart so the same batters would face the opposite type of pitcher.

 

I also want no part of Gagne as the set-up man (I'm not sure I want him on the ML roster anyways, as I like some of the other guys who'd be making less) and in reality I hate the idea of set-up men (and closers) anyways as I'd prefer if the best pitcher availible for the situation is used, be it CV, Swindle, Stetter, Hoffman or whomever.

 

JJHardy7 - you basically just described Dillard as a dark horse in your attempt to say that he wasn't a dark horse.

[JJHardy7]

I'd be shocked if Dillard makes the team so yeah I'd call him a dark horse. I think his odds are probably the lowest of anyone mentioned.

 

Do you think that way because of his ability or the fact that he has an option left? If it's the option, that's fine. I just think a dark horse is one that isn't really on the radar and pitches/plays their way on the team. Dillard could very well pitch lights out and still not make it because of the option...not because he'll be 'coming out of nowhere'.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Ive been impressed with Dillard over the small sample that I have seen. I just hope we keep the best guys not the guys with the most "veteran grittiness" for our bullpen. I think Dillard has a chance to be one of those guys and hope he doesnt get the short end of the stick because he has an option remaining.

[Ennder]

I've never seen Dillard pitch, I just think between him having an option and the fact we brought in so many other RH guys from outside makes it unlikely that Dillard is their plan for 2009.

[brewers4eric]

The team is likely to use at least ten different relievers in 2009. Someone like Dillard may not make the team out of spring training, but he is very likely to see time in a Brewers uniform at some point due to injuries or inefectiveness from someone else.

 

Its going to be more of a numbers game for the Brewers in 2009. Our starters aren't spectacular, but I think we've got 6 guys capable of throwing 150 innings and we've also got a closer with a nice resume. We're going to burn through a bunch of names between innings 6 and 8 over the season and the charter flight from Nashville to Milwaukee is going to be busy. The more candidates that we can stash at AAA the better.

[wcswimmer712]

Brewers4eric,

 

thats exactly what I'm thinking. There will more than likely be injuries to a couple pitchers, so it would be wise by Melvin to keep Julio and/or Coffey instead of losing them to waivers and sacrificing our depth. He can stash Dillard, Swindle, and DiFelice down in Nashville and recall them when needed

[MJLiverock]

The bullpen debate that began here is playing out with Swindle optioned and Morlan DFA'd. Gagne hurt and DFA'd as well. Littleton added to the mix as the grab as many mediocre relievers and see who is left standing roulette wheel continues.