Bullpen Arms... Josh Kalk's (THT) Bullpen Analysis: reply #24

[mu35577]

Assuming that we take 12 arms in our staff, who do you guys think we will take. This Gagne signing makes for a very competitive Spring Training battle

 

This is who I think we should take in our bullpen:

 

Hoffman: Closer

McClung: Long relief/spot start

Villa: possible setup

Riske: 6th, 7th inning guy

Stetter: lefty specialist

Gagne: possible setup (if he pitches like he did at the end of last year)

Julio: 6th, 7th inning guy

 

This would mean that Coffey and Morlan would be gone and Dillard, DeFelice, and Swindle would go to AAA. What do you guys think

[Brew City Baseball Fan]

pretty good list her MU but I dont know why it seems like everyone is so tied to just having one "lefty specialist." While I dont know much about Swindle it would make sense to me to keep 2 guys. I also dont understand the fasination with Villanueva as the setup man, to me he is more of the 6th or 7th inning guy. I would like to see Mcclung take that job. He too valuable of a pitcher to be thrown into that long relief role because in the end that is nothing more than an innings eater to get you to the next day. I think this year as long as he is injury free you see Riske step his game up. Theres just something about that guy that makes me think he has got "it."

[mu35577]

I agree and disagree here. There is simply not enough spots for 2 lefty specialists because Swindle would be taking either Gagne or Julio's or ______'s spot and I think that he needs time to develop in AAA. Good point with Villa. I'd rather have a fireballer to set up Hoffman so his changeup is even more devasting to opposing hitters. The problem with McClung there, he'd be a great fit, but he's out next starter if there is an injury so we need to keep him stretched out. We'll see what Macha sets up but I think our bullpen has the potential to be one of the best in the NL this year. Can't wait to get real baseball games going

[piccione88]

In my opinion loogies do more harm than good most of the time. Having a left hander or two in your bullpen is nice, but unless you can get righties out as well, you are doing more harm than good. With that said I do believe that Stetter can come in and pitch an entire inning, which is something Shouse could not, which forced us to use an extra pitcher. With that said my pen would look something like this:

 

RP-E.Morlan(he has good upside) RP-M.Stetter RP-D.Riske RP-E.Gagne( I like what he showed late last season, and I think he will have a very nice year)

SU-S.McClung SU-C.Villanueva CP-T.Hoffman.

[1992casey]

I don't think anyone is tied to the idea of a single lefty specialist. However, as mu35577 says, the ability to carry two can be limited by how the rest of the staff shakes out.

 

Someone's going to have to refresh my memory, but I'm not sure that "specialist" is a term that would necessarily be applied to Stetter. It seems that I remember him being suited to handling hitters from both sides of the plate.

 

I'm a big fan of pitchers doing multiple innings, so I'd hope that Macha can keep both McClung and Villanueva relatively stretched out. That shouldn't preclude one-inning appearances when the game situation calls for it, though.

[piccione88]

Stetter career FIP against lefties is 3.07, with whip of .89,a 12.58 K/9, and a .99 HR/G. Against righties throughout his career he has a 4.07 FIP, with a 1.27 WHIP, striking out 5.77/9, and giving up .55 HR/9. Those numbers are not very lopsided, and 2005 was the only year where there was a big difference in his splits with a difference of over 2 between righties and lefties. In 2006, and 2007 he actually fared slightly better against righties then lefties.

[Patrick425]

This was actually the conversation I was trying to start in this thread:

 

http://brewersfandemonium...ku.com?topic=17452?page=1

 

..but then it turned into a conversation about Gallardo's slot in the rotation.

[CheezWizHed]

This reminds me of the "we need a left handed bat" discussion. Now we have Gwynn, Nixon and Duffy. Oh joy! We need the best pitchers available, not just taking one because he is left handed. And Stetter was definately used in more situations than just for lefties. Shouse was a LOOGY, Stetter is just a LHP. Although if he is the only lefty in the pen, I'm sure he will be used that way. If Swindle beats out the competition, great. If not, then we only have one LHP in the pen. I'm ok with that because we should have a quality BP now.

 

Also, I don't get the "we want a fire-baller to setup Hoffman" idea... Since both the setup and closer normally pitch one inning, they won't face the same batters. Following a soft tossing SP with a fireballing RP could throw off the batter's timing, but not one RP to another. If you want to do that, send in your fireballer 2-3 innings before your closer so they face the same batters.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm also thinking that if everyone looks good in ST, we will see a trade of RP for backup OF...

[Brew City Baseball Fan]

All good points my friends. As far as McClung goes why not use Villa as the emergency starter. McClung has the stuff to be lights out in the 8th and I just do not feel the same for Villanueva. It will be interesting to watch these arms in spring. Unfortunately at the end of my spring trip last year I was convinced that Vargas had pitched extremely well and he would be one of the five starters, so at times I think it revolves around a little more than results in spring.

[JohnBriggs12]

All good points my friends. As far as McClung goes why not use Villa as the emergency starter. McClung has the stuff to be lights out in the 8th and I just do not feel the same for Villanueva. It will be interesting to watch these arms in spring. Unfortunately at the end of my spring trip last year I was convinced that Vargas had pitched extremely well and he would be one of the five starters, so at times I think it revolves around a little more than results in spring.

 

Villanueva was lights out in the playoffs and in the 7th inning for most of last year. Macha has already stated that had not Hoffman been signed, Villanueva was going to close. You don't have to throw mid 90's heat to close.

 

CheezWizHed correctly points out that they have positioned themselves with enough bullpen arms to be able to use one to shore up what is a weak depth situation in the OF.

[Ennder]

Brewers moved up to 87 wins and a tie for the wild card on the BPro standings with this move!

 

I haven't seen half of these guys pitch so I'll just add what PECOTA thinks of them.

 

Hoffman - 3.41 ERA

Swindle - 3.69 ERA

Stetter - 3.86 ERA

Villanueva - 3.88 ERA

DiFelice - 3.99 ERA

Coffey - 4.21 ERA

Julio - 4.26 ERA

McClung - 4.51 ERA

Gagne - 4.67 ERA

Riske - 4.76 ERA

Dillard - 5.34 ERA

Wright - 6.18 ERA

[Buckethead Brigade]

I really don't think we need two lefty specialists...Villa's changeup is just has deadly to left handed hitters, so why not have more talent (Gagne) than a lefty (Swindle)?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I really don't think we need two lefty specialists...Villa's changeup is just has deadly to left handed hitters, so why not have more talent (Gagne) than a lefty (Swindle)?

I really don't think Gagne is better than Swindle, though. But then I don't share most fans' and baseball mens' predilection for short relievers who have "proved it at the MLB level" and "big game closing experience". Swindle's career MLE FIP is 2.98, and that's including some extraordinarily heavy league adjustment penalties from A ball numbers. That PECOTA 3.69 ERA projection is totally reachable for him. Gagne, on the other hand, may be a totally cooked goose at this point. I just don't see the sense in risking $3 mil or so on a pitcher who could very easily give you worse than replacement level performance again.

 

I really hope that both Gagne and Julio fail to make the team out of spring training, and I don't really care whether they keep Coffey or not (not swayed by 7 measly IP at the end of last year). I'm pretty darn sure that Swindle, Stetter, and DiFelice are better than all of those guys and they would only make the league minimum. Hoffman, Villaneuva, McClung, and Riske are all going to be there barring injury.

 

I'd love to have room to keep Morlan around, but I can't justify sending down DiFelice or Swindle, even though they have options, when it seems so obvious that they are better than half the bullpen I'm keeping. I might try to take the salary savings from cutting Gagne and see if I could pay somebody to take Riske off my hands to make room for Morlan. Doubt I could make it happen that cheap though.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Brawndo, what have Swindle and DiFelice and especially Morlan done that makes you think they will be better options than Coffey, Julio and Gagne? Is it just because they haven't been given the chance to fail at the MLB level? I fail to see any upside in a guy like Swindle (who has mediocre MLB stuff at best), and while DiFelice has some value as an emergency arm, I don't see how that is more valuable than a late-inning reliever who throws gas and has had past MLB success. Swindle and DiFelice would have been in MLB bullpens long before now if they had any value.

 

I'm all for giving the new guy a shot, but this isn't 2004 anymore. The Brewers have went out and gotten relievers with past MLB success because they expect to make a run on the playoffs this year, and want guys that have been there and have been successful. I truly believe that the Brewers' days of having a bullpen stocked with career AAAA pitchers is over. That ship has sailed.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm really surprised at how high Dillard's PECOTA numbers are... He is my dark horse candidate to make the pen this year.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

There's no such thing as a AAAA player. That's an incredibly old institutional bias with next to no basis in reality. It's a product of knee-jerk reactions to small sample size successes and failures. Think of the concept of a sophomore slump. That's the converse myth, and it comes from overreacting to one season's worth of MLB rookie success. A guy like Pat Listach winds up having a much longer MLB career than he should've had simply because he was lucky enough to have a fluky good year as a rookie, and that impression sticks.

 

Properly adjusted for context, numbers from the high minors are every bit as useful for projecting future performance as actual major league numbers. Swindle and DiFelice miss tons of bats and don't walk anybody, and they will do that whether they pitch in AAA or MLB this year.

 

Morlan isn't better than Coffey, Julio, or Gagne right now, but he also might not be that much worse, and if they can find a way to keep him up, they get to send him back down and get 5 more cost-controlled years of a high upside player. Besides, the way that long relievers tend to be deployed these days, somebody on the staff is going to have the job of pitching three innings every time the team is getting slaughtered. It's an incredibly stupid way to define a bullpen role, but the upshot is that there is always room to have exactly one truly terrible pitcher on your staff who will never get the chance to effect the outcome of any games. That's the only silver lining. Morlan could do that job as well as anybody, since there's really no way to screw it up.

[endaround]

Brawndo, what have Swindle and DiFelice and especially Morlan done that makes you think they will be better options than Coffey, Julio and Gagne? Is it just because they haven't been given the chance to fail at the MLB level?

And what do Julio, Gagne, and Coffey bring? The knowledge of sucking at a major league level? Don't know how you can't see anything n Swindle. He isn't that old. You'r right it isn't 2004 so we don't have to look for "veteran leadership" and should actually get the guys with the most talent

[Thurston Fluff]

Swindle and DiFelice miss tons of bats and don't walk anybody, and they will do that whether they pitch in AAA or MLB this year.

 

when it comes to relievers I think there is something to be said for guys who can strike out the hitters who are not good enough to make the majors but cannot do the same with AAA players who are talented enough to play in the majors. If a pitcher is smart enough to avoid pitching to the good players they can look pretty good in a relief role in the minors yet suck in the bigs when everyone they face is major league caliber.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

DiFelice's success in the minors is as a SP, so I don't see how that argument specifically applies to him. I guess there's no reason that you couldn't apply the same logic to a minor league SP though -- if that is possible, why couldn't a SP just do that every time through the lineup? I don't think you're right about it in any case, and I would need to see specific empirical evidence that there is a bigger gap between good and bad AAA hitters than there is between good and bad MLB hitters to be swayed from my current thinking that all you really need to know is how much better the mean MLB hitter is than the mean AAA hitter, and simply adjust a AAA pitcher's numbers accordingly (MLEs).

 

Swindle should be used as a LOOGY, and there's almost no way he wouldn't be excellent in that role. His career MLE FIP vs. LHB is 1.94 and his career MLE BAA vs. LHB is .156. Stetter should be a one inning guy, as his career platoon differential isn't very wide at all.

[MJLiverock]

Swindle hasn't even thrown 200 innings of professional ball and most of that was in the low minors so it is pretty hard to say with any certainty what he is going to bring. He has had good results in a very small sample against non ML talent. He is worth a shot and if he pans out then great if not no problem but I can't automatically call him good yet.

 

There may not be an official AAAA level but baseball is littered with guys who dominate AAA and can't make it at the ML level. The Brewers farm system of the late 80's and most of the 90's produced plenty of them. Even looking back just to Ben Hendrickson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge de la Rosa just to name a few.

 

Career ML guys like Joe Dillon do well in AAA and bounce around for the occasional shot at the big leagues and after all the excitement of his first 75 AB 's with the Brewers he put 75 AB's that reminded everyone why he was in the minors for so long.

[Ennder]

Ben Hendrickson never put up good stats in AAA, he just had one year that happened to mix mediocre skills with a low ERA.

 

Career ML guys like Joe Dillon do well in AAA and bounce around for the occasional shot at the big leagues and after all the excitement of his first 75 AB 's with the Brewers he put 75 AB's that reminded everyone why he was in the minors for so long.

 

I think this was his point exactly. You are writing Dillon off based on 75 sporadic ABs. A lot of players get labeled AAAA because they aren't instantly successful and never get a second chance. Just imagine if we had given up on Hardy at the all star break of his first season, what we would have missed out on since.

[MJLiverock]

I think we are kinda of arguing the same point but from diffent angles. I think too much is extrapolated from the good AB's just like you think too much is extapolated from the bad AB's. I see Dillon as a guy who got a lot of attention based on his good 75 AB's and when the next 75 AB's were poor the reality set in of why he hadn't played much at the ML level. He isn't as good as the first 75 AB's and maybe not as bad as the next 75.

 

I think there really are plenty of AAAA players or in other words good minor leaguers, not so good major leaguers. Just like the guys who can't make the jump from A to AA.

 

Swindle is a guy who just hasn't done enough to make any sort of solid prediction. I wouldn't be surprised either way on how he performs.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

There may not be an official AAAA level but baseball is littered with guys who dominate AAA and can't make it at the ML level. The Brewers farm system of the late 80's and most of the 90's produced plenty of them. Even looking back just to Ben Hendrickson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge de la Rosa just to name a few.

 

Career ML guys like Joe Dillon do well in AAA and bounce around for the occasional shot at the big leagues and after all the excitement of his first 75 AB 's with the Brewers he put 75 AB's that reminded everyone why he was in the minors for so long.

Ben Hendrickson's numbers, properly adjusted for context, never justified any of the optimism people felt about him. He certainly never dominated. His last two years in AAA in the Brewers organization his MLE FIPs were 5.32 and 4.57. It would have been reasonable to hope for a 4.75 ERA from him, and he may have been able to do that if he had been given enough IP, but he never had anything like kind of minor league success that DiFelice and Swindle (in a different role) have had.

 

Nelson Cruz's MLEs were also totally unimpressive for a corner OF right up until his demotion in 2007. It wouldn't be the first time a hitter developed a touch late (he was only 27 that year). And considering that he put up a 1.080 OPS in the majors last year (small sample), don't you think the Rangers are kicking themselves for letting his AAAA tag keep him in the minors as long as they did? His 2009 MLE OPS was .920 (that's 398 AB he could've been thumping MLB pitching). He'll probably never be a superstar, but there's still time for him to have a decent MLB career that proves people were foolish to dump the AAAA tag on him. He's probably already shed it because of 115 good AB at the end of the year.

 

And that's really the whole problem with that kind of thinking. Guys at the margins of AAA / MLB are selected or rejected on the basis of such tiny sample sizes of data.

 

Joe Dillon is neither as good as his first 75 Brewer AB nor as bad as his last 75 Brewer AB. But if you split the difference and call him a .750 - .775 OPS hitter (which is what the smart projection systems that use MLEs for players without enough MLB data think he is), that's a totally useful bench player who should absolutely have a bench job in the majors so long as he's only due to make the league minimum, and probably at least his first arby year as well. But MLB GMs routinely overpay worse players with lots of MLB experience to fill the last couple spots on their bench, when quality so-called AAAA players are usually available for nothing.

 

Edit: And Ennder already said most of that, much more succinctly, while I was working on my novel.

[sgtcluels]

Josh Kalk (Hardball Times) talked on Brewcrewball about the fight for the last 3 spots for the Brewers bullpen. Check it out

 

Basically he suggests. Swindle (Leftie who can pitch still vs. RHB) Stetter (Pure Loogey) and yep, Gagne.