Gagne signs minor league deal with Brewers ($1.5 million if he makes roster, up to $3 million more in additional incentives; see reply #34ish)

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm a fan of Gagne, never really booing him, though there were times I obviously had my doubts (so the same could be said of Torres). Nevertheless, I like that for all intents and purposes, our bullpen is seriously solidified. Lots of options, and three of the best relief changeups in the majors. Good times.

 

And as an aside, what are the chances that Gagne pitches well enough to preserve his Type B designation? Given the more palatable contract, we could very easily offer him arbitration next year (as opposed to this year when the best we could have hoped for was $8M+.

[Never Outhustled]

I was blasted at the beginning of the offseason for saying Gagne would get no better than a minor league deal, but here we are. Nice pickup, but I doubt he makes it. He's very injury prone, and that means a number of guys would have to flop to justify keeping him. Dillard and Defelice can do the same for less money.

[naivin]

I think Gagne could have gotten this contract from almost any team in MLB. And he chose the Brewers.

I honestly get the sense he feels like he owes them for the way things went last year and wants to at least try to make up for it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I was blasted at the beginning of the offseason for saying Gagne would get no better than a minor league deal, but here we are. Nice pickup, but I doubt he makes it. He's very injury prone, and that means a number of guys would have to flop to justify keeping him. Dillard and Defelice can do the same for less money.

Dillard and DeFelice still have options and honestly, you would rather have either Dillard or DeFelice out there to get key outs in pressure situations over a guy in Gagne who's been in that situation countless times? Gagne proved his mettle down the stretch last year, He might not be what he was but he can still perform under pressure.

 

I put Gagne ahead of Julio, Coffey and the two guys you mentioned right now. It's now a battle between him and Riske for the 7th inning as I see it. Riske is more of an injury risk than Gagne.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I continue to not understand the love for DeFelice that some on this board seem to have. He's a 31 year old junkballer that tops out at 88 MPH. He toiled for 12 years in the minors before getting his first call up last year, to mediocre results. Yes, it's a nice underdog story and all, but I would hate to see the Brewers get rid of a reliever with legit MLB stuff like Coffey, Julio or, yes, Gagne, to keep the epitome of a AAAA pitcher.

 

Dillard on the other hand I like. I think he's young and has good upside. Plus, he's an extreme sinkerball specialist, which this team cannot have enough of.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I may buy a Gagne jersey...terrific signing. Despite all the booing, the guy has really put out the olive branch to Brewers fans...I hope they reciprocate.

[RockCoCougars]

I continue to not understand the love for DeFelice that some on this board seem to have. He's a 31 year old junkballer that tops out at 88 MPH.

Sharp post. For some reason, many here act like he is a can't miss prospect. I don't see too much to get excited about, he must be a (on) paper tiger. From watching him last year, he looked like a rich man's Joe Winkelsas to me.

 

EDIT: Looking at his stats, true he only walked two in 19 innings, but he also gave up four bombs. Almost all of them must have been solo shots because he only gave up 6 ER.

[And That]

I continue to not understand the inability to spell DiFelice's last name correctly. He's the new Branyan.

 

No one is saying he's a world beater but ever since he learned the cutter a few years back, he's been a very good pitcher. The Brewers have limited resources - they should not (and in this case, did not) shrug someone off because they top out at 88 MPH. If he can be effective and cheap out of the pen or as a spot starter, that's really valuable to the club. He probably won't even make the club out of spring training, but if he stays healthy, it's likely he will help the '09 Brewers more than hurt them.

[jazzytrav]

I love incentive-laden contracts in every sport, assuming the manager doesn't go out of his way to make sure the player reaches their bonuses.

[TooLiveBrew]

DiFelice is a very solid depth option, both 'pen & rotation. He'd be a part of many MLB squads' starting rotation.

[Ralph Wiggum]

DiFelice is a very solid depth option, both 'pen & rotation. He'd be a part of many MLB squads' starting rotation.

But how many of those MLB squads are or will be contenders for a playoff spot? Yes, someone like D"I"Felice may be useful to a non-playoff contender as a regular, or perhaps as a short-term injury fill-in, but for a team with solid rotational and bullpen depth, he's simply an extra with a non-speaking line and 2 seconds of face time.

 

Basically what I am saying is if the Brewers are in the position to depend on DiFelice as a valuable member of the team this year, things will not have gone according to plan. Given the history of this team, that is entirely possible. However, DiFelice is at least 10th or 11th on the starting rotation depth chart (Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Looper, Suppan, McClung, Wright, Green, Capuano and maybe even Villanueva are above him), and probably at least the 10th option out of the pen (behind Hoffman, Villanueva, Riske, Gagne, Julio, Coffey, Dillard, Stetter, McClung). That tells me, barring significant injury/underperformance from MANY pitchers within the organization, that DiFelice will be lucky to see Milwaukee this year. That isn't even taking into account the potential of a breakout season from someone like Chris Narveson, Brae Wright, David Welch, Sam Narron or Lindsay Gulin, all who have more upside than DiFelice. The team also seems to really like Omar Aguilar, Swindle and, for some reason, Joe Bateman. I'm not saying all those guys are ahead of DiFelice on the organizational depth chart, but most, if not all of them have better natural "stuff" of something else (lefthandedness) going for them.

[TooLiveBrew]

But how many of those MLB squads are or will be contenders for a playoff spot? Yes, someone like D"I"Felice may be useful to a non-playoff contender as a regular, or perhaps as a short-term injury fill-in, but for a team with solid rotational and bullpen depth, he's simply an extra with a non-speaking line and 2 seconds of face time.

 

My point is only that he would be starting for some MLB teams. That's no easy feat.

 

 

Basically what I am saying is if the Brewers are in the position to depend on DiFelice as a valuable member of the team this year, things will not have gone according to plan. Given the history of this team, that is entirely possible.

 

Agreed -- but with pitching, things rarely go according to plan. I don't agree at all that Capuano & Green are ahead of DiFelice at this point, and am not sure about Wright. But again, my only point is that DiFelice is a very solid depth option.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I don't agree at all that Capuano & Green are ahead of DiFelice at this point, and am not sure about Wright. But again, my only point is that DiFelice is a very solid depth option.

My argument with Cappy would be a unmatched work ethic and past major league success. The argument with Green and Wright is obviously youth/upside and solid minor league numbers. It's the whole results versus potential corollary with those two.

 

I agree with you completely in the issue of depth. Having someone like DiFelice stashed in Nashville with the ability to perhaps come up for a spot start or a pen fill-in for a few weeks is a nice option to have. What would bother me is if he gets a spot out of spring training at the expense of a solid MLB relief arm like Gagne, Julio, Coffey, McClung or Riske, all of whom have MLB closing experience, or a potential future contributor like Morlan or Dillard, who may have closer-type stuff.

[TooLiveBrew]

What would bother me is if he gets a spot out of spring training at the expense of a solid MLB relief arm like Gagne, Julio, Coffey, McClung or Riske, all of whom have MLB closing experience, or a potential future contributor like Morlan or Dillard, who may have closer-type stuff.

 

Yeah, I especially agree on Dillard & Morlan getting shots at the 'pen ahead of Mark. The other guys who I'd want to see DiFelice ahead of in the other group are probably Julio & Coffey... Gagne if he's struggling. I'm just not very enamored of Julio & Coffey. The former I think is probably not going to be a good RP for us, and the latter I think benefitted from performing well over a small sample last season -- the ultimate tease when it comes to a RP arm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Past success and the fact that both Julio and Coffey are at the age where their skills should not be falling off tell me that at least one stands a good chance of being a solid contributor this year. Both had very good numbers in limited MLB innings near the end of last year. Yes, both have a small history of melting down when in the closer limelight in the past, but also have had periods of great success at the MLB level. The Brewers aren't looking at either one to close games, unless something catastrophic should happen.

 

Perhaps I'm wrong about DiFelice, and he'll turn into a successful MLB pitcher ala Doug Davis with his new cutter. However, the track record for MLB pitchers making their debuts following their 30th birthday isn't exactly stellar. Once in a while you'll see a fluke, but for the most part, career minor leaguers are minor leaguers for a reason. I'd love to be proved wrong on this, because it will mean that DiFelice has exceeded my, and most everybody else's, expectations. I have a hard time seeing him ever be an above-mediocre MLB pitcher, though.

 

 

 

Of course, I was never a fan of Carlos Villanueva either, and he exceeded all my expectations.

[TooLiveBrew]

Past success and the fact that both Julio and Coffey are at the age where their skills should not be falling off tell me that at least one stands a good chance of being a solid contributor this year.

 

I agree that there's a decent chance one will pitch well. I don't personally get into the 'limelight' or mystique of the closer role -- I just don't think either dude is all that special.

 

 

Once in a while you'll see a fluke, but for the most part, career minor leaguers are minor leaguers for a reason.

 

I think that as long as DiFelice is used properly (read: face as many RHB as possible), he will thrive. As an emergency or near-emergency SP option, I also think he has value. His K/BB ratio was downright nasty at AAA last season, and he didn't really get the chance to pitch too many MLB innings.

[logan82]

I don't see why people think that we should be counting on Capuano for anything other than a relief roll. He had major arm surgery and I doubt he is ready for a heavy starter workload anytime this year.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

DiFelice didn't start throwing the cutter until 2007, so his failure to make the majors until age 31 shouldn't really be seen as a reason to discount the chances that he could be effective now. If a pitcher who lost a big fastball due to injuries made it back to the majors on the strength of learning to throw a killer knuckleball in the minors, you wouldn't really think of trying to use his pre-knuckleball successes or failures to predict his future performance, would you?

 

With respect to the "but LHB kill him" thing, if you're looking at his MLB splits, that's a total of 28 PA by LHB, so it tells you next to nothing. His career minor league splits show a .045 platoon differential in BAA but it's been about half that since adding the cutter. Seth McClung's platoon split is .047 for his career, and nobody's thinking about restricting his usage against LHB. What really bugs me is that people in the organization seem convinced that DiFelice's failings against LHB are what holds him back. I just don't get it.

 

PECOTA projects his ERA at 3.99, and his MLE FIP from AA and AAA the last two years beats that by around 30 points, and that was as a SP. Truth be told, I'm dead certain he's a better option for the rotation than Suppan, and I'd personally pick him ahead of Looper too. I know the club won't really consider that except in an emergency, but I think they should. I will be hugely disappointed if they waste any of DiFelice's 2009 in AAA. He's probably the 4th or 5th best pitcher (SP or RP) in the organization.

[logan82]

He's probably the 4th or 5th best pitcher (SP or RP) in the organization.

Yeah, but we are paying Suppan to much to move him out of the rotation.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I know that the clubhouse politics and PR repercussions make it a practical impossibility, but these days Suppan projects as a replacement level pitcher. Maybe he can do better than that (especially if he is healthier this season), but if he can't, they should just cut him and eat the money. There's no sense compounding the mistake they made giving him all that money by letting him pitch a bunch of actual innings when somebody else could do a significantly better job.

[Ennder]

PECOTA projects Suppan at a 4.91 ERA.

Bill James at 4.70

Marcels at 4.82.

Chone at 5.31

Shandler at 4.87.

 

Replacement level in the NL was 5.37 I think?

 

Suppan is most likely something like a 1-1.5 win above replacement pitcher depending on how his ERA falls. If he were getting something like $5M-$6M a year then probably nobody would insult him since that is probably about what he is worth at this point.

[logan82]

There's no sense compounding the mistake they made giving him all that money by letting him pitch a bunch of actual innings when somebody else could do a significantly better job.

 

True, but who is sure to be "significantly better."

[And That]

As long as Suppan is contributing positively - and the evidence Ennder just posted makes the case that he is, albeit not by much - I don't see any way the Brewers will cut Suppan and eat the rest of the contract. While the Brewers will be paying him more than he's worth, and it is a sunk cost unless they can unload him... if you're paying him, you might as well try to get some value out of it even if it's not optimal value.

 

I suppose if it's obvious he's spent at the end of '09 and into February '10, they may eat the $14.5 mil left they'll owe him at the end of next year's spring training. But not before.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

The CHONE projections came out first this offseason, and Suppan's replacement level projection stuck in my mind. Plus, his FIP was below replacement level last year.

 

I'm actually quite glad to see that some of the other systems think he's still a tad better than that, since regardless of what I think, the Brewers are going to let him pitch a bunch of innings this year and next year unless he gets badly injured.

[Ennder]

Yeah that could be, but I'm not convinced FIP is any better than ERA as a stat. It is more consistent but since it ignores GB% and includes HR I think it is flawed. Basically FIP says the HR spike was bad but the HR spike didn't come with a FB% spike so it most likely was just a fluke caused by his injury.

 

xFIP is a little bit better and that shows Suppan at a 4.91 which seems more realistic given his 4.86 in 2006 and 4.85 in 2007. Shandler's xERA is probably better too and that shows his trend as 4.44, 4.41, 4.59, 4.77, 4.87. He is getting worse with age but not nearly as much as it looked like from last years results.