Over/Under: 2009 Milwaukee Brewer attendance?

[brewcrewreview]

We all know last year that the Brewers set a club record in attendance with a total of 3,068,458 people (an average of 37,882 people per game). Some friends and I were having a discussion last night if the Brewers would beat that record this season.
I was the only person in the group that thinks the team won't break the record, albeit, I think it will be close. I realize that the Brewers will have a record season ticket base this year by far. I also realize that the nine home games against the Cubs and the three games against the White Sox will help out a lot as well. I don't think the current state of the economy will make much of a difference, because the Brewers continue to offer so many cheap, and even free, ways to get into the stadium. However, I feel the subtraction of CC Mania combined with a decent chance that we may not be in a playoff race come September, will be the ultimate difference why a new record won't be set this season. I realize that the Doug Melvin bobblehead day could push them over the edge, but I'm afraid it won't be enough.
I hope the Brewers can set a new attendance mark in 2009, but I leaning towards they won't.
Final prediction attendance in 2009: 2,969,267.

[joepepsi]

I think 3 million is the over/under mark. It's amazing such a small market can top 3 million attendance. Even if they are the best team in the NL and win the World Series, it'll be hard to get much more than last year's attendance. 3 million fans as a percentage of the population of Wisconsin is remarkable. As a percentage of the people living in Greater Milwaukee it's amazing.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It would be even more remarkable if it was 3 million different people that went to the games.

[Invader3K]

Rillo, I don't get what you mean by that.

 

I think they will break last year's number, by just a little bit. I don't know why, but I just have a gut feeling that people will out in force again this season. I would guess around 3.1 million.

[Patrick425]

Rillo, I don't get what you mean by that.

 

I think they will break last year's number, by just a little bit. I don't know why, but I just have a gut feeling that people will out in force again this season. I would guess around 3.1 million.

 

I think the key word in Rillo's post was "different".

[Invader3K]

I got that...I guess I just missed what his point was.

[wisconsinfan47]

I think we'll barely break last years record, mainly because of our September schedule. Those September weeknights can be rough for getting people out to the ballpark, and those days usually bring the avg. attendance down a bit, but this year our midweek September series are the Cubs and Cardinals.

[fondybrewfan]

If the Brewers stay competitive the entire year I think they could approach 3,200,000. Realistically though I think the organization would be happy if they could consistently draw about 2,900,000 a year. Anything above that is probably gravy. I wonder what attendance the Brewers have budgeted this year. The unexpected attendance last year probably allowed the team to go "overbudget" and go get CC.

[joepepsi]

I got that...I guess I just missed what his point was.

He make joke.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[brewerguy71]

I think that the over/under on attendance this year will be more like 2,000,000.

 

Its a bad bad economy out there, the team is not nearly as good as it was last year, and if they are a .500 team or so by the time summer rolls around, families are not going to drop the $100 to take in a game. By the time June/July/August roll around the job market will be at or near the very bottom and people just arent going to be able to afford to go to games like they did last year.

 

This number regarding already sold tickets is very misleading because of the packages sold to get playoff tickets last year.

 

I think they will do very respectfully for their market size and considering the economy, but there is no way they will even be close to 3,000,000 again this year.

[zzzmanwitz]

I've actually seen reports that because people go on less vacations, they have more money for smaller "luxuries" like going to baseball games. I'd say at worst, the amount of people who go to more vs the amount that go to less will cancel out.

[owbc]

I see 2,500,000 being the minimum if they fall out of the race early (which is very unlikely). Up to last year's attendance if they stay at the top, but the chance of the record being broken is about 5%.

 

I'll go with 2,800,000 on the over/under.

[Dmiles23]

I'll go with 2,800,000 on the over/under.

I'd agree with that. I don't think there is much of a chance the Brewers get to 3 million this year. Last year was just special in the fact that the Brewers hadn't made the playoffs in so long. To get to 3 mil, the team needs to attract the "average" fan. They know what they have with the hardcore fans, but it's the average fan that puts them over the top. And not being in the playoffs in 26 years, along with the HUGE hype from Sabathia, drew more of these fans to the park. This year, with the economy and after making the playoff run last year, the average fan may think that going to Brewers games isn't a "must have" thing.

 

EDIT: And I see 2,800,000 fans as a success for the team. I'm sure they would be happy if they could get around that each year.

[davego]

2.99 million. So close...

[fondybrewfan]

I think that the over/under on attendance this year will be more like 2,000,000.

2,000,000 seems incredibly low. They have already sold 1,000,000 and single game tickets haven't even gone on sale yet. At 2,000,000 that would be an average of roughly 25,000 a game. I think those totals are well in the past regardless of the current economy

[brewcrewreview]

Remember they sold a 1,000,000 tickets before even GROUP tickets went on sale. There's no chance the Brewers will draw less than 2,500,000. If 2,000,000 tickets was the over under mark, I would lay ten to one odds and cash advance all my credit cards plus bet everything I own on the over. 2,000,000 tickets will be far too easy for them to do this year.

[Invader3K]

I've actually seen reports that because people go on less vacations, they have more money for smaller "luxuries" like going to baseball games. I'd say at worst, the amount of people who go to more vs the amount that go to less will cancel out.

Yeah, I heard some people talking about this on MLB Home Plate a while ago. They said that during economic down times, sometimes baseball attendance actually goes up, because instead of taking a big vacation, a family might go to a couple ballgames instead.

[rm121978]

I'm thinking 2.7 million which assumes a likely scenario of a .500 team that is out of the race in early-mid September.

[bucks2281]

I think that the over/under on attendance this year will be more like 2,000,000.

 

That's way too low, IMO. They've already sold 1,000,000 tickets, and single game tickets don't go on sale until Feb. 28. Plus, the Brewers have 12 games against Chicago teams at MP. I think people do surrender larger vacations, and they, in turn, reward themselves with "small luxuries" in a bad economy. I read an article in the Milwaukee Business Journal that said the Bucks and Packers, and not the Brewers were suffering the consequences of the economic times. IMO, the festivals will suffer the most during the summer. If gas isn't $4.20 a gallon this summer, I think people may be more inclined to travel to a game, too. It's not hard to get discounted tickets, either.

 

I say 2.8 million.

[chrisisoutrunning]

I'm thinking that the economy will keep some people away, but I also think that it mostly depends on the team. Early in the year the crowds will be in the "honeymoon" phase from the playoff run last year, so I think things will be pretty full for the first two or three months (we also start of with the cubs, so 3 straight sell outs are guaranteed). but i'm going to with 2.8 million, as I think the team isn't going to be as good as last years, hurting the attendance...

[valpocrewsader]

2.8 million would be where I set the over/under too, about 10% less than last year. The carryover excitement from the previous season is a benefit 2008 attendance didn't have, but I think it will be offset by more frugal fans and a team that isn't in the race come September. Still, I have a lot of faith in the Attanosio-driven Brewers marketing department getting us close to 3 million again.