Selig considering reinstating Aaron as Home Run King

[Crewin06]

Another chart to look at for Aarons. XBH/Season.

 

Year Age XBH

1965 31 73 Last Year in Milwaukee

1966 32 68

1967 33 79

1968 34 66

1969 35 77 Mound Lowered Plus Expansion

1970 36 65

1971 37 72

1972 38 44

1973 39 53

1974 40 36

1975 41 30 Traded to Milwaukee

1976 42 18

 

Honestly, it's pretty clear that in the mid-60s, he merely traded doubles for HRs and his true decline hit in 1972.

 

Robert

 

Or he got less PA's like I have been saying all along

 

Year Age XBH PAs XBH/PA

1965 31 73 / 630 .1158

1966 32 68 / 676 .1005

1967 33 79 / 663 .1191

1968 34 66 / 670 .0958

1969 35 77 / 634 .1215

1970 36 65 / 590 .1101

1971 37 72 / 566 .1272

1972 38 44 / 551 .0798

1973 39 53 / 460 .1152 Pretty much tied Babe Ruth's record

1974 40 36 / 479 .075

1975 41 30 / 535 .056

1976 42 18 / 306 .058

 

Again the more opportunities to hit homers the more homers one might hit. and as for the 40 HR 53 XBH campaign does it remind us of any other HR hitter of the past 10-15 years?

[Crewin06]

So Guys I give you 3 simple questions and you can't answer any of them but give more contrived BS.

 

Very condescending, and 'BS' is not allowed here per the site's terms of use.

If you can tell me how he got that Fulton County Stadium gave the ball 2-3% more carry other than he made it up then you can give me a strike or kick me off otherwise I stand by my assertion that he wrote down a bunch of contrived BS and he couldn't answer my question. Then he picks apart Sbrylinski's graph that has actual data showing Aaron hitting alot more HR's and picks it a part pointing out a Stadard deviation of .5 and the rest is noise when if the standard deviation is .5 like he asserts and the mean is 2.5 like it looks then Aaron's 37 and 39 seasons are 3-3.5 standard deviations away from the mean which is a huge deal

 

Either the guy is making up a bunch of contrived BS or he is just a tool that doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

[sbrylski]

Either the guy is making up a bunch of contrived BS or he is just a tool that doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

 

Why would you respond to a moderators' post about you using a disallowed phrase and use that same phrase again?

 

C'mon, keep it together.

[RobertR]

The Physics of Baseball by Robert K. Adair
Pages 18 and 19

"Since the retarding force on a ball is proportional to the density of air, a 400-foot drive by Cecil Fielder at Yankee Stadium, which is near sea level, on a windless summer day would translate to a 407-foot drive at Atlanta... The same home run would be expected to go ... about 4 feet farther at County Stadium in Milwaukee."

So, we're looking at about 3 feet there due to the change from Milwaukee to Atlanta solely due to altitude.

Page 24

"The density of the air is also reduced by about 1% for each 5 (degrees) F rise in temperature ... For the canonical 400-foot home run, a decrease in drag by 1% will add a little less than 2 feet to the ball's carry."

Temperature data here. http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/ccd/nrmavg.html Atlanta is typically 10 to 15 degrees F warmer than Milwaukee.

A little math and Atlanta, on average, can be expected to add 5 to 7 feet to a well hit ball. Basically, 1 to 2%. O.k. I was 1% high, you caught me doing the calcs by the seat of my pants.

I'll also note that in 1969, that the power alleys in Fulton County Stadium were brought in 10 feet, to 375 feet, in addition to a lowered mound and expansion. See http://www.ballparks.com/...eball/national/fulton.htm

As for why Aaron's best post-68 years were '71 and '73, instead of '69 and '70, I don't know. But, I think it's a mistake to not acknowledge the concept of standard deviation. Some years are just better than others for many reasons. Looking at the 1971 data, there's a huge home road split as far as home runs, 31 to 16. A slightly lesser split in '73, 24 to 16. Explain the split and you probably explain the spike.

Again, though, this can't be proven or disproven by stats. And, it's a mistake to compare a Hall of Famer, let alone an all time great Hall of Famer, to the average ballplayer and expect them to follow the exact same pattern. They'll peak earlier and sustain that peak longer. I do think it's worth noting that Aaron only had three years above his average going by OPS+ past 1968. He was turning into the stereotypical slugger instead of the multi-dimensional player he was in his prime.

Edit: FWIW, I'd really like to get Atlanta's weather data for 1973, wind and temperature.

Robert

[RobertR]

And here I thought we were having a friendly, theoretical discussion.

 

To me, Aaron's late career peak is the convergence of talent, location, and a drop in pitching talent due to expansion and lowering of the mound. The talent and location were unique to Aaron. And probably a change in approach, especially as he neared Ruth's record.

 

Even among Hall of Famers he's unique. Just as Babe Ruth is. Just as Ty Cobb is. Just as Ted Williams is. Just as Rickey Henderson's SBs are. The holder of a significant record IS going to have unique qualities that allowed him to set that record that noone else had. That's somewhat circular logic, but it's also very true.

 

And, frankly, I think people are trying too much was statistics. Nobody ever proved Bonds tooks PEDs through statistics. The proof was in the testimony and other evidence. And that other evidence is completely absent in the case of Aaron. Even tell all books like Ball Four don't provide proof. Absence of proof isn't proof of absence, but there's no smoking gun with respect to PEDs and Aaron and other stars of that era.

 

Robert

[PeaveyFury]

If you can tell me how he got that Fulton County Stadium gave the ball 2-3% more carry other than he made it up then you can give me a strike or kick me off otherwise I stand by my assertion that he wrote down a bunch of contrived BS and he couldn't answer my question.

 

My point had nothing to do with the argument at hand one way or another, and wasn't a comment on the validity of any stat or side. My point was that there are ways to make YOUR point without making yourself look bad. Condescension is not allowed here, and neither is 'BS,' that's the bottom line.

 

If you can tell me how he got that Fulton County Stadium gave the ball 2-3% more carry other than he made it up then you can give me a strike or kick me off....

Either the guy is making up a bunch of contrived BS or he is just a tool that doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

 

Since you can't seem to take a fairly blunt hint and have been warned previous to this about condescension, we'll take you up on your suggestion about the strike.

[Fatter than Joey]

Edit: FWIW, I'd really like to get Atlanta's weather data for 1973, wind and temperature.

 

I can't help you with what you want.... but check this out....

 

1.) Over 200 Hrs were hit in Fulton --- the next closest was 164 in the Stick.

 

2.) ATL pitchers pitching at home gave up 87 HRs, the next closest, the Phillies at 80, after that the Cubs at 72.

 

3.) ATL's pitchers Home ERA, 4.75 -- Phillies are next at 4.18, followed by the Cubs at 3.88

 

Aaron, Evans and Johnson were not the only dudes hitting HRs in Fulton in 1973. Lots of HRs were hit in Fulton in 1973

 

Even among Hall of Famers he's unique. Just as Babe Ruth is. Just as Ty Cobb is. Just as Ted Williams is. Just as Rickey Henderson's SBs are.

 

Agreed... At some point you have to concede that great players will be great sometimes...

 

or maybe Tigers Stadium was just a HR launching pad.

 

It certainly was for LH hitters like Evans. Short Porch

 

Out of these 3 sluggers that all have over 500 homeruns none of them had seasons over 30 HRs after the age of 35.

 

False -- Frank Robinson had 30 when he was 37. Also, McCovey had 29 at 35, and 28 at 39 -- Mays had 28 at 39 -- Killebrew had 28 at 35.... so your selection of 30 HRs as a benchmark seems arbitrary. Furthermore, McCovey and Mays were not full-time players at 39 yrs., had they been, they would have exceeded 30 HRs.

 

Please find me another player in the history of baseball who had their highest HR total or highest HR/PA percentage with at least 35 HR's after their age 35 season?

 

What does this prove? -- I'd have a hard time finding another player that won 11 batting titles like Ty Cobb did as well... Aaron/Cobb/etc.. great players, even among the elites.

 

I think if Aaron used steroids in 1971 and 1973, he would have used them in the gap years as well -- and we would not see big drops.

[Crewin06]

If you can tell me how he got that Fulton County Stadium gave the ball 2-3% more carry other than he made it up then you can give me a strike or kick me off otherwise I stand by my assertion that he wrote down a bunch of contrived BS and he couldn't answer my question.

 

My point had nothing to do with the argument at hand one way or another, and wasn't a comment on the validity of any stat or side. My point was that there are ways to make YOUR point without making yourself look bad. Condescension is not allowed here, and neither is 'BS,' that's the bottom line.

 

If you can tell me how he got that Fulton County Stadium gave the ball 2-3% more carry other than he made it up then you can give me a strike or kick me off....

Either the guy is making up a bunch of contrived BS or he is just a tool that doesn't know what the hell he is talking about.

 

Since you can't seem to take a fairly blunt hint and have been warned previous to this about condescension, we'll take you up on your suggestion about the strike.

OK, in a discussion someone is using easily attainable stats that are facts the other guy is making up any stat he wants and can't be called out on it. For the love of god he gave a made up standard deviation without even thinking of running a regression analysis. Everything in his post I was referring \is made up. He didn't answer my question and used fake baseless stats. That line I got a strike for had more fact in it than any of Roberts posts put together.

[RobertR]

Great, simple physics is made up, now.

 

FWIW, here are Aaron's Home and Road splits for HRs for the years 1969 to 1974.

 

Home
Year	HR	PA	HR/PA
1969	21	318	0.066038
1970	23	287	0.080139
1971	31	275	0.112727
1972	19	274	0.069343
1973	24	242	0.099174
1974	11	192	0.057292
Total	129	1588	0.081234
Away
Year	HR	PA	HR/PA
1969	23	321	0.071651
1970	15	311	0.048232
1971	16	253	0.063241
1972	15	228	0.065789
1973	16	223	0.071749
1974	9	190	0.047368
Total	94	1526	0.061599

What's most telling to me is the ratio between HR/PA for the two splits of 1.318. Apparently, it was an amazing 32% easier for Aaron to hit HRs in Fulton County Stadium rather than away. I'd be curious to see how those splits fit on the graph, but my hunch is that Aaron's road split is going to fit much more neatly among the others. And his home split is going to be off the chart.

 

That big a split certainly suggests that one of the biggest causes of Aaron's HR/PA spike is centered around Atlanta.

 

Robert

[PeaveyFury]

He didn't answer my question and used fake baseless stats. That line I got a strike for had more fact in it than any of Roberts posts put together.

 

Are you really not getting the point here, or are you testing 'how far you can push the limits here' as you told the old JSonline boards a year or so ago?

[Crewin06]

I can't help you with what you want.... but check this out....

 

1.) Over 200 Hrs were hit in Fulton --- the next closest was 164 in the Stick.

 

2.) ATL pitchers pitching at home gave up 87 HRs, the next closest, the Phillies at 80, after that the Cubs at 72.

 

3.) ATL's pitchers Home ERA, 4.75 -- Phillies are next at 4.18, followed by the Cubs at 3.88

 

Aaron, Evans and Johnson were not the only dudes hitting HRs in Fulton in 1973. Lots of HRs were hit in Fulton in 1973

 

Nothing like the 1 year sample size to really emphasize a point.

 

I'll concede that Fulton was a hitters park, and it probably did help him but the best HR total of his career at 37 and best rate at 39? Why not immediately? I just can't believe it.

 

Also if Fulton County Stadium is such a launching pad (which I agree to a certain extent) and Aaron, Evans and Johnson all placing in the top 4 isn't an aberation why in the remaining 23 year history of the stadium was there only 3 other HR hitters to ever hit 40 in a season for a Brave. I mean Johnson hit 40 that season and only hit 93 more the remaining 8 full years and 12 total years of his career. Evans 26 at the time spent another 2+ seasons at Atlanta in the same stadium and never hit more than 25 in a season. What happend here? Am I really the only one that is suspicious that someone in baseball or in the Atlanta Braves asked the same question in 1973?

 

Even among Hall of Famers he's unique. Just as Babe Ruth is. Just as Ty Cobb is. Just as Ted Williams is. Just as Rickey Henderson's SBs are.

 

Agreed... At some point you have to concede that great players will be great sometimes...

 

The only difference is Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams and Rickey Henderson were great throughout their careers. Usually better around 25-34 and tapering off towards the end. They aren't very good on par with other all-time greats in the same era then at 35 when most players are starting to sputter turn it up another 5 notches and run off the best 5 year stretch of their career. If Babe Ruth all of a suddenly hit 65 at 37 years old in 550 Plate appearances (when he was getting 650-700 the rest of his career) and steroids where readily available to him nobody would have asked what was going on?

 

Out of these 3 sluggers that all have over 500 homeruns none of them had seasons over 30 HRs after the age of 35.

 

False -- Frank Robinson had 30 when he was 37. Also, McCovey had 29 at 35, and 28 at 39 -- Mays had 28 at 39 -- Killebrew had 28 at 35.... so your selection of 30 HRs as a benchmark seems arbitrary. Furthermore, McCovey and Mays were not full-time players at 39 yrs., had they been, they would have exceeded 30 HRs.

 

How is my statement false. Reading comprehension. Who in that list had over 30 Home Runs. As for 30 its a nice round number that none of them had more than. And the numbers you threw out there Robinson with 30, McCovey with 29 and 28 and Mays with 28 those are nice numbers if they weren't 60% of their high HR total. Right about where the normal baseball curve would put them. To put it in comparison it would have been like Frank Robinson hitting 51, Willie Mays hitting 55 or Killebrew hitting 50 at 37 years old with about 550 PA's

 

Please find me another player in the history of baseball who had their highest HR total or highest HR/PA percentage with at least 35 HR's after their age 35 season?

What does this prove? -- I'd have a hard time finding another player that won 11 batting titles like Ty Cobb did as well... Aaron/Cobb/etc.. great players, even among the elites.

 

I think if Aaron used steroids in 1971 and 1973, he would have used them in the gap years as well -- and we would not see big drops.

 

Again I am not asking for someone who was the best at something throughout their career. I am asking for someone that was very good on par with the best of their time and then at the end of what would be a normal career kicked it up about 5 notches and had the best 5 year stretch of their career. And the gap year as you call it is a big drop off but to what? He still was top 5 in HR's in the league and he had more HR's than everybody in the 500 HR club even though he was 2-4 years older than all of them.

[Crewin06]

He didn't answer my question and used fake baseless stats. That line I got a strike for had more fact in it than any of Roberts posts put together.

 

Are you really not getting the point here, or are you testing 'how far you can push the limits here' as you told the old JSonline boards a year or so ago?

No at that time I was just testing somebody's theory this is just pure annoyance at a poster that I happend to use a bad term.

 

Don't worry I am done responding to that guy.

 

Seriously though he asked what was the big deal about being low 1% in a 2-3% guess. Nevermind. Again don't worry I am done responding to him.

[Fatter than Joey]

Nothing like the 1 year sample size to really emphasize a point.

 

1973 was a year a lot of players in the NL hit HRs in Fulton -- It's a fact. There is no sample size issue.

 

Also if Fulton County Stadium is such a launching pad (which I agree to a certain extent)

 

It's common knowledge to any one who either lived or has studied baseball in that era... There is really nothing for you to agree or disagree on here.

 

Aaron, Evans and Johnson all placing in the top 4 isn't an aberation why in the remaining 23 year history of the stadium was there only 3 other HR hitters to ever hit 40 in a season for a Brave.

 

When Aaron played in Fulton -- there were more HRs hit in Fulton than in any other NL park 6 out of 8 years. Why was the HR distribution in such a way that more Brave hitters didnt get 40? -- I don't know -- injuries/luck probably. You are hung up on the distribution of HRs, which is certainly interesting -- but there is simply no denying that Fulton was a HR hitters park. Which batters did you expect to get 40 that didn't?

[RobertR]

What's the big deal about admitting that Aaron was in a favorable situation to hit HRs, probably more favorable than any other park in his era? Fulton County Stadium wasn't nicknamed "The Launching Pad" for nothing. For that matter, when did Veteran's Stadium, Riverfront, Busch, and Three Rivers come on line? Those are parks that could affect the league context.

 

I'm not saying that Aaron didn't have a unique late career peak as far as hitting HRs, btw the only way those five years were better than pretty much any 5 years previous to that. VORP and WARP don't support the idea that those were his 5 best years. I'm only saying that "Aaron had a late career peak in HRs, therefore he must have used steroids" has many holes to fill in the chain. Heck, if the Braves don't move, the mound isn't lowered, expansion doesn't happen, and the DH isn't instituted, there's a good case to be made that Ruth's record would have stood. There were many significant factors going on that were favorable to Aaron and trying to ignore all of them in favor of a simple explanation throws doubt on the validity of the argument. Especially since those other factors are documentable and the steroid allegation hasn't been.

 

And, I'm doubly skeptical of a claim with respect to Aaron considering the social context of the time. Does anyone really believe that a black man in the south threatening a major record held by a white man wouldn't be held to all kinds of scrutiny in that era?

 

Regardless, statistics are not going to prove these sorts of allegations.

 

Robert

[Crewin06]

I'm sorry Fury I know I said I wouldn't respond to him anymore but C'mon. His 2 highest HR/PA seasons before 35 were .0683 and .0654. Even if you took out his ungodly home numbers, his road numbers provide the 2 best seasons of his career and 3 of the top 4 seasons of his career. Yeah the numbers might fit more neatly but they are still going to be easily the best stretch of his career.

[Crewin06]

Not to mention if only his road stats are taken into account for his ages 35-the end of his career, At age 39 Aaron still has his best HR/PA year of his career.

 

Edit-OK I'm done before I get booted from the site. This is my last post on this subject and I will go back to posting very sporadically. Keep up the good work Brewerfan.

[1992casey]

Crewin06, please avoid long quotes of messages previously posted in the same thread.

[Crewin06]

I'm only saying that "Aaron had a late career peak in HRs, therefore he must have used steroids" has many holes to fill in the chain.

Sorry I just couldn't let this go. Why is that in quotes. I know you determine standard deviations and other stats by just making things up but quotes?

 

First off I never said it and secondly it's not even close to the basis of my argument.

[TooLiveBrew]

Crewin06... your mission to piss everyone off seems to be succeeding so far. You could probably stop telling people they're making things up.

[PeaveyFury]

Crewin06... your mission to piss everyone off seems to be succeeding so far. You could probably stop telling people they're making things up.

 

Considering how thread played out, and his admission that he has in the past tried to stir things up here to see how far they went, I'm convinced that this was probably the case again, especially considering his blatant disregard for the several warnings given to him along the way here.

 

Please feel free to continue discussing the topic at hand, but please continue with more tact than Crewin06 chose to use over the last day or two.

[RobertR]

I really don't have too much more to add, except to say that I don't get why things got all heated? Especially over an issue that we know can't be proven by statistics.

 

Does Aaron have a late career HR/PA peak that's unique? Yes. What's the argument?

 

But, I think where HR/PA vs. league HR/PA falls down is a) it doesn't take into account park factors and b) it doesn't take into account that the average NL hitter also changed with expansion (i.e. the talent baseline of the HR/PA ratio likely got lower compared to Aaron). Or perhaps not, but addressing potential issues is certainly better than not.

 

Aaron's in a unique position in history that when he was expected to decline, the situations he was in suddenly got easier. In his early 30s, the team moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta. In his mid 30s, suddenly pitchers were throwing from a shorter mound, expansion occurred so that he now got a chance to bat against lesser pitchers and be compared to lesser hitters, and the power alleys in Fulton County Stadium were moved in 10 feet (which was a situation that was unique to Aaron and at least a contributing factor for why he would benefit more than some of his other peers. Willie Stargell should be thrown on the chart as his best 5 year stretch of HRs coincides with Aaron's late peak and a move to a new ballpark.). The fact that Aaron aged more gracefully than some of his peers isn't that surprising either considering athletic, in shape, healthy superstars with a wide range of skills tend to age better than the average ballplayer.

 

Really, I'd like to see a chart with a couple of alterations. For instance, on absolute scale with the NL league average shown, park adjustments factored in, and probably a dozen or so sluggers instead of a small sampling. That will tell us a lot more if there truly was something unusual going on that can't be explained by actual documented conditions.

 

FWIW, here's a park factor spreadsheet for those that want to play around. http://spreadsheets.googl...PqasyNfGRqHZrUQ&gid=1

 

Robert

[whizkid]

Hank's statistical record has been pretty thoroughly discussed in this thread. Brewerfan doesn't have polls and doesn't like one line posts but as someone who grew up following and even idolizing Hank in my younger years, I'd be interested in knowing what others think the probability is that Hank used PEDs.

 

We already have an over 50%. I'll say 5%.

 

If the mods want to nix this idea, that's fine.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'd agree -- 5% or lower