Composite Prediction Thread

[UeckerAddict]

86-76. I hope for better than this, but something tells me I might be being a little optimistic in the first place.

[razzzorsharp]

81-81, third place behind the Cubs and Astros. Again, I never want to jinx them by predicting success.

[mcnaulty21]

Prob going to ba an 86/87 win season. I'll say 86

[Ennder]

79-83

Sorry to be a bit pessimistic, but hey, we do have a very nice bullpen

 

Everyone is free to have their own opinions but you think the bullpen got better, the lineup is obviously the same or better, we got Gallardo back healthy(worth a few wins) and signed Looper(worth a win or two). That means a half year of Sabathia and an almost full year of Sheets was worth something like 15 wins to the team last year? Or is there something other than losing just those two that you think will cause the team to fall so far?

[Blindcheck]

91-71.

 

Gallardo wins 14

Bush wins 13

Parra wins 11

Looper wins 12

and

 

Suppan wins 15

[Klements Bratwurst]

Ennder,

 

I am very concerned about the starting rotation and it relates to its youth. Gallardo has only thrown 134 innings in the bigs. Couple that with the Parra running out of gas like he did in the late second half, I just don't know that they have the horses to be better than last year as the year runs down. Basically if we didn't have Sabathia last year, the club wouldn't have got into the playoffs. He was an absolute stopper.

 

At the end of last year, I yearned for Craig Counsell to play 3B because Hall absolutely didn't have it. Now we have Hall and Lamb at 3B, at a premium power position. At 2B we still have"wait until this year" Rickie Weeks. I am a Rickie Weeks fan and supporter, but we still haven't seen enough consistency yet for what we would expect of such a highly thought of #2 overall pick.

 

Our outfield is better than most in MLB, if Corey Hart does find his 2007 - 2008 (until the All Star Break) form. If he has been figured out by MLB pitching, we will have a hole there being filled by Trot Nixon on a part time basis again at another premium offensive position.

 

So the big question marks I have reside in the starting rotation, 3B, 2B, and maybe RF. I just don't see this team as playoff calibur minus Sabathia and a healthy Sheets. Gallardo is a plus for sure, but will he be a plus in late August and September?

 

The way I see this 2009 team making the playoffs, is if they mash there way there, with Weeks finally realizing the potential he has, and Hall at least getting back to the midpoint of his 2005-2006 form. With that said, if these things happen we may score 850 plus runs and pummel the division and make the playoffs. I just don't see that happening. I would LOVE to be wrong!!!

[logan82]

Couple that with the Parra running out of gas like he did in the late second half, I just don't know that they have the horses to be better than last year as the year runs down.

 

That is not something to worry about. Parra wore down about the time when many people thought he would. He should be good for 190+ innings this year. Gallardo, well who knows. I think he should be good for close to 190 innings, but not much more.

 

A Hall/Lamb platoon is better than a Counsell/Hall platoon. Hall hurt us for the first few months of the season an platooning him from the start will help.

 

Our only real loses are Sheets and CC. Other than taht we are equal or better than last year. If those guys are no better than 4 wins each and even figuring that we should have only won 86 games last year that would put us at 78 wins before figuring in what we gain from a year of Gallardo and offensive production. Going inot the season fuguring we are going to be a 82 win or worse team is just extreme pessimism.

[sheetskout]

80-82

 

Weeks improves.

Fielder actually comes close to his 07 season

Braun continues to dominate

Hart stays the same - maybe a little worse

Hardy's power regresses a little, but still solid

Kendall plays 137 games

 

THEIR PITCHING BLOWS! (Although I think Gallardo makes strides to improve, but not dominate yet)

 

And for the record, I hope I'm wrong about the latter.

[kmcasper23]

88-74 - 2 games behind the Cubs & 2 games behind the Mets for the WC.

[Ennder]

Outside of that one terrible game in Coors, Gallardo has a career 2.65 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. I don't see how he can improve and not dominate.

[brewcrewkid14]

85-77 no playoffs

 

Parra will not do much better than last year. Gallardo will be about Sheets level. Fielder will improve a bit, but Hall and Weeks will continue to disappoint. Gamel will be starting 3b by July.

[Mr QL]

I think 85 wins as the team stands now although I think we'll make some moves

[brewers4eric]

The 2009 Brewers should hit enough 3 run bombs to manage 87 wins.

[pebadger]

I'll see your 87 and raise you 1.

 

88 wins.

Someone other than Cubs wins the NL Central.

If that someone is not the Brewers, no playoffs.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

177-155.

 

I refuse to be limited by things like "schedules"

[DougJones43]

79-83

 

Pretty average team. Personally, I feel they were pretty fortunate to win 90 games last year (Pythagorean had them at 87 wins). I really don't think the defense is gonna be very good, and this certainly won't help a mediocre starting staff. The offense still only has one left-handed hitter, they don't get on base enough, and they will most likely continue to struggle with situational hitting -- striking out way too much. I expect very poor production from Kendall and whomever is playing 3B. If Gamel is called up, his defense will probably negate his offensive contributions.

 

In my opinion, the tipping point for this team is going to be the performance of Weeks, Hall, Parra, and Bush. Of that group, Parra is the only one I have any faith in, and with him I have some concerns about him breaking down come mid-August.

 

While Macha figures to be a really nice upgrade from Yost, I also get the feeling the injury bug could strike this year. If Gallardo misses any time, the pitching staff is really in trouble. I also think losing Shouse is going to hurt more than most people anticipate.

[brewtank34]

How can you "get the feeling" that the injury bug is going to strike this year? That's like saying that every team in MLB is going to suffer from the injury bug. Did you consult with your magic 8 ball on that one?

 

My predictions...

Hall and Weeks are both going to bat over .260 but not over .280

Yovanni with 16 W's, Suppan with 11 W's, Parra with 15 W's, Bush with 8 W's, Looper with 14 W's. McCLung with 6 W's.

Braun and Fielder will both be in the mix for MVP

Hart will get his 3rd straight 20/20

Weeks will have 40+ SB's

JJ Hardy will start out hot in April and slump in May and June. July and August will be JJ's months with a decent Sept.

Miller Park will see 2.8 Million in attendance.

89 Wins

Cubs with 86 W's...St Louis 79 W's....Cincy with 81 W's...Houston 78 W's and Pitts with 72 W's.

 

Braun, Fielder, Hardy will be our All Stars this year

85 HR's between Braun and Fielder

[DougJones43]

How can you "get the feeling" that the injury bug is going to strike this year? That's like saying that every team in MLB is going to suffer from the injury bug. Did you consult with your magic 8 ball on that one?

I don't know. Maybe (hopefully) I'll end up being wrong, but either way it's just a guess. Kendall is old. Prince if fat. Weeks always has trouble with his hands/wrists. Hall just got hurt. Cameron is old. Trot Nixon is old, and hasn't played much ball lately. Parra pitched more than he should have last year. Gallardo missed most of last year, but will still be counted on to pitch deep into games. Hoffman is 41-years-old. Riske was hurt much of last year. Gagne has had all kinds of arm issues.

 

I just think they could have trouble staying healthy enough to reach their full potential. I also think any injury will be extra detrimental to the Brewers, because they don't have a lot of depth. There's nothing more to it than that. Sorry if that upsets you for some reason. Next time I'll make sure to ask the players for their complete medical records, off-season workout regimens, and permission to give them head-to-toe physicals before I make an off-handed, throwaway guess on a message board.

[brewtank34]

DougJones43 wrote:

I don't know. Maybe (hopefully) I'll end up being wrong, but either way it's just a guess. Kendall is old. Prince if fat. Weeks always has trouble with his hands/wrists. Hall just got hurt. Cameron is old. Trot Nixon is old, and hasn't played much ball lately. Parra pitched more than he should have last year. Gallardo missed most of last year, but will still be counted on to pitch deep into games. Hoffman is 41-years-old. Riske was hurt much of last year. Gagne has had all kinds of arm issues.

 

 

 

If Kendell (who is iron man by the way) gets injured, then Rivera and Salome are right behind him lickin their chops. Prince is a big boy, but when has he ever shown to be injury prone? He slimmed down and is the healthiest he's ever been....same with Hall. Not too worried about his torn calf as he'll be ready for the start of the year. I'll give you Weeks, but not Cameron. Cameron is not injury prone and is not old. He's 36? I think that's right. He's one of the most In Shape guys we have on the team... I'll give you Parra and just about any of our Starting pitchers...anyone of them if not all of them have the risks of getting injured...

 

My question to you is why see the glass half empty? Why expect the worst? Injuries are part of the game. If they happen, they happen. But to worry about them before they even happen is a defeatest attitude. Not saying it's wrong to have a defeatest attitude, rather just asking why? It's the start of a new season and anything can happen...injuries included. Me...I'd rather hope for the best and deal with the heartache at a later date.

[Ennder]

I just think they could have trouble staying healthy enough to reach their full potential

 

Oddly enough the Brewers probably rated better than any other team on the team health reports at baseballprospectus. We have most likely the safest team in baseball from an injury standpoint.

 

Which means you are probably correct and a bunch will get hurt!

[logan82]

I really don't think the defense is gonna be very good, and this certainly won't help a mediocre starting staff.

 

Our defense is better than mediocre. It is actually pretty good. We only have one poor and one average-below average defender. There is no way we are anything but above average to good on defense.

[DougJones43]

I'd rather hope for the best and deal with the heartache at a later date.

I'm not hoping for injuries. For whatever reason, when I envision the upcoming Brewers season, I think it's going to be a disappointing step backward from last year, and that's just what my gut tells me. If I made a conscious effort to force optimism into my prediction, it wouldn't be my real prediction, now would it?

 

I just expect that this team isn't going to get some of the lucky breaks they got last year, and I think the relative health of everybody not named Gallardo or Sheets was pretty lucky. Given the lack of depth in several areas, I think even a few poorly placed injuries could really bring the team down. Again though, this is just a gut feeling on my part. I know people want to see every single comment backed up with supportive evidence, but let's face it -- during the course of a baseball season, luck and chance play a huge role, and I was merely throwing out my own guess at how the "ball will bounce" this year for the Crew.

 

I really think you're looking into this far too much. Nobody else is required to share my pessimism, so I can never figure out why it bothers people so much...

[JJHardy7]

I'll go with 77 wins. It's hard for me to predict a great season because I feel that it gets frustrating when that doesn't happen. For me, the season rests on Yo's arm. I worry probably more than others that he simply won't be able to pitch enough for this team and like most teams a drop off from your best pitcher to your number 6 can be a pretty big drop off. I know that'll only be a handful of losses due to that, but that would be banking on everything else going well. I think if Yo is healthy and doesn't miss too many starts this team will be in the playoff hunt. One thing I try to forget is just how streaky this team can be on offense. This means we'll need some solid pitching performances if this doesn't turn around.

[mletto157]

Congratulations JJHardy7 with the most pessimistic post thus far. Here are the current brewerfan.net composite projections.

 

Brewerfan Prediction Averages
Prediction Type	Wins	Losses	Games Played
MEAN:	86.48	75.48	161.96
MEDIAN:	86	76	162
MODE:	88	74	162
BEST:	100	62	162
WORST	77	85	162

[RU Rah Rah]

I suppose it's about time to revisit this thread....