Perspective on todays Brewers

[Patrick425]

I have seen a lot of disgruntled posts regarding the Brewers and what they have or have not done in the off season. The acquisition of Looper has helped a little, but I know there are still many disappointed Brewer fans that hoped the Brewers would make a bigger move. However, at least we have a pretty clear idea of the Brewers everyday players and starting rotation and we are talking about names like Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Cameron. Some very real offensive potential there.

 

I can remember some years where no one was really sure what the Brewers were going to be putting out on the field at all. There were position and rotation battles all over the place. Great names like Mieske and Hulse battling for positions and maybe we knew the name of two or three starting pitchers like Bones and Karl. The rest of the rotation was battle between names like Sparks and Scanlan. It was truly hopeless.

 

I know that it's like everything else in this world, you always want more, but Brewer fans should take time to remember past years and how bad things really could be. At least we are living in an era in Brewer history where there is actual and real hope of contending and making the playoffs, not just some pie in the sky dream that crashes down to reality starting approximately at the end of May.

[Nottso]

I'm eternally (often irrationally) optimistic, but this year more so than usual. I just feel that the new coaching staff will finally bring out the potential of this team, and that potential is huge. I look for Weeks to finally breakout, and for Hart and Hardy to more consistently play up to the high level they've shown they at times can. I also look for Prince to be more relaxed with the contract being done, and I believe he'll come to camp in a little better shape. Hall might even turn things around after having Lasik, and Braun will be a monster from day one.

 

I also think our SP will be average if not a little above average. It is my belief that with the new coaching regime, nobody's guranteed a spot in the rotation, no matter their salary. I think they'll all be competing in spring training, and the best 5 guys will get the spots, with the order set accordingly. Okay, maybe that last part is more hope than belief. But I really do look for good things this year, and for a few years to come.

 

Yeah, I know... probably somewhat irrational, but that's how I feel. I can't wait for this season to get started!

[sveumrules]

PECOTA projects the brewers at 83-79 for 2009, not sure if this includes looper or not. anyone recall what they projected for last year's crew? i could only find the cubs prediction which was winning the division with 89 wins, so they obviously had the brewers lower.

 

PECOTA can't be too good though, i mean they only had the rays down for 88 wins before last year, so adios credibility.

[JohnBriggs12]

No offense Patrick425 but you are making a classic mistake assuming that times are so much better now than they were in the mid 90's.

 

Those teams had guys who put up big numbers. Jaha had a year with 34 HR and 118 RBI. Kevin Seitzer had 3 years in a row where he hit over .310. Daryl Hamilton was a good CF and was usually around .350-.360 OBP leading off. Greg Vaughn was a 30 HR, 95 RBI guy. David Nilsson had a year where he hit .331/.407/.525 and he was primarily a catcher. Jeff Cirillo was beginning a stellar career. Heck even the guy you dissed, Mieske, had 3 straight years slugging over .430 as a platoon guy.

 

Even the pitchers you mentioned all had their moments. Eldred was as good a prospect as any they have now, but he got hurt. Bones had a year or two where he was a decent starter as was Karl and even Sparks.

 

Every year there was reason for hope.

 

Yes the Brewers have some very high quality players now, like Fielder, Braun, and Hardy. But except for Pittsburgh and San Diego, every NL team can say that and even those teams have some very good players.

 

As sure as spring follows winter, 10 years from now, fans will be saying things like "At least we no longer have a team with bums like (take your pick, Weeks, Hall, Nixon, Counsell, Kendall, Suppan,) playing key roles. That's the way it is with fans. As years pass, and players that never quite lived up to expectations move on, fans forget that they pinned hopes on these guys, just as fans did 10 years prior.

 

This team is much like many Brewer teams in the past. They have to have a lot of thing go right, not just for themselves but with their competition. Even the most optimistic fan on here is conceding the division to the Cubs. That leaves the Wild Card which is contested not among 6 teams but among 13. The odds of winning the WC in any given year are not very good, much less twice in a row.

 

I'm hoping for decent health and an entertaining season and some new faces to emerge at some point in the season. If that happens, I'll be satisfied because I don't think this particular Brewer team is well positioned for a huge year. It's certainly not hopeless, but there's just too many ifs and hopes to feel really confident.

[Ennder]

PECOTA projects the brewers at 83-79 for 2009, not sure if this includes looper or not. anyone recall what they projected for last year's crew? i could only find the cubs prediction which was winning the division with 89 wins, so they obviously had the brewers lower.

 

PECOTA can't be too good though, i mean they only had the rays down for 88 wins before last year, so adios credibility.

It does not include Looper, it was at 83 when it came out which was before Looper signed.

 

Last years projected standings can be found at this link. Brewers were projected for 88 wins.

 

http://310tojoba.blogspot...ions-national-league.html

[joepepsi]

I think they will compete for the Wild Card, with a legitimate chance to win the division outright. At worst, they should still win 83-85 games. At best they could be 10 wins above that.

 

The rotation 1-5 is better than the Phillies' last year. Obviously Gallardo and Parra are somewhat wild cards at this point, but I don't see the Cubs' rotation as vastly superior. I suppose the Mets have the best rotation.

 

I see the Mets, Phils, Cubs, and Brewers having the best combination of offense and pitching. Atlanta, Florida, Houston, and St. Louis could be really good, mediocre, or bad. The West will be boring as usual with no serious wild card contender.

 

Sabathia was great last year, but his effect on the team is somewhat overrated. In 2009 I look for more consistency, improved offense, better bullpen and a much better manager.

[Patrick425]

No offense JohnBriggs, but I don't think I'm making a classic mistake.

I'll give you Vaughn, but the others you mentioned were never really expected to be anything special in the majors and ended up having some good years scattered between some not so good years. Not that where you are drafted means everything, but lets look at some of that Brewer lineup that you mentioned.

Jaha - 14th round draft pick
Mieske - 20th
Hamilton - 11th
Cirillo - 11th (had a solid career)
Seitzer - 11th (also had a solid career, but was past his prime when he joined the Brewers and never had more than 490 ABs in a season with the team)

The current Brewer team is stocked with young, high draft pick players who are coming into their prime years

Fielder - 1st round
Weeks - 1st round
Hall - 6th round
Hardy - 2nd round
Braun - 1st round
Even Kendall, though past his prime was a 1st round pick

Gallardo - 2nd round
Bush - 2nd round
Looper and Suppan, while not "young" any more and maybe not living up to original expectations, are 1st and 2nd round draft picks respectively

One of the points of my original post was that there use to be so much uncertainty going into spring training. Who's the SS? Who's in LF? What is the rotation other than maybe the first 2 or 3 starters? We pretty much know the opening day starting 8 position players for 2009 and the 5 guys in the starting rotation. There may be some competition for bench players and bullpen staff. There is stability on a young, exciting, home grown team. This is much, much different than the hopeless feeling of mid 80's and much of the 90's into the early 00's.

 

[JonnyLungs]

One contention I have with the PECOTA projections, and somebody correct me if I'm wrong. I just subscribed and when I went into the Depth Chart part and they had a list of players and projected playing time. I'm assuming this was where the 83 win projection came from.

 

In that depth chart part, they had Mark Rogers listed as making 8 starts for the Brewers this year and throwing 45 innings this season with a horrible projection. I guess it could be a way to figure that the Brewers at some point will have a scrub throw 45 innings as a starter and get bombed but they also had Mark DiFelice with a nice projection, albeit as a long reliever.

 

I always enjoy looking at these projections but in no way take them for gospel. I'll use the PECOTA projection as a baseline and figure they could realistically be plus or minus five wins barring unforeseen circumstances. And often unforeseen circumstances happen and that's what makes baseball great.

[joepepsi]

I don't hold much with projections. I think you can do the same thing yourself by looking at past performance, age, where the player was playing, and come up with an equally accurate projection in a seconds. It's sorta like OPS. OPS leaves out a lot of details, over emphasizes slugging pct, but generally gives you a quick, accurate assessment of a player's value.

[Ennder]

It is just trying to fill in innings because everything gets regressed assuming that pitchers will get hurt through the year. Looper will likely replace 150 innings of 5.50+ ERA in the projections and move us up to 85 or maybe even 86 wins depending on how the close we were to 84 before.

[Ennder]

PECOTA added Looper today and we moved up to 85 wins.

[rluzinski]

Projections are not magical but you are not going to do as well, year in and out, by just eyeballing it. I don't know how you think you think you could. You could certainly do better than just assuming 81 wins for each team but a good projection will beat you over the long run.

 

Even if God told you the exact probability the Brewers had of winning each of thei 162 games next year, you still wouldn't now exactly how many wins the Brewers would get. A team that has exactly a 50% chance of winning each game will win between 75 and 87 wins, 68% of the time (1 standard deviation). There's still a lot of luck involved, even over 162 games.

 

If the Brewers are projected to win 85 games, they have around a 25% chance of winning 80 or less games OR 90+ games. Assiming 90 wins gets you into the playoffs 75% of the time (don't know the real number), the Brewers might have a 1 in 5 or 6 chance making the playoffs this year.

[Tbadder]

I'm not upset about the off season at all. Well, except for losing the Sheets draft choices. I think this is going to be a very entertaining team. I hope that Milwaukee will be satisfied with that and go out to support them to the tune of 3.0 million fans, though I think 2.7 is more likely. Adding Looper really was a nice, inexpensive, short term solution, and as the Brewers are constituted now I think .500 or slightly above should happen. However, I don't think they'll be in the Wildcard chase unless they can stay healthy while the Mets do not. I'm betting we'll have enough offensive regression (Fielder, Hart, Cameron, maybe Hardy) to off set any prime year progression.

[joepepsi]

Projections are not magical but you are not going to do as well, year in and out, by just eyeballing it. I don't know how you think you think you could. You could certainly do better than just assuming 81 wins for each team but a good projection will beat you over the long run.

 

Even if God told you the exact probability the Brewers had of winning each of thei 162 games next year, you still wouldn't now exactly how many wins the Brewers would get. A team that has exactly a 50% chance of winning each game will win between 75 and 87 wins, 68% of the time (1 standard deviation).

Last season 10 teams finished within 1 standard deviation of 81 wins. Another 3 finished with 74 wins, so that's awfully close. So allow me to make a quick eyeball of the teams for 2009 and make my bold projections:

 

88 wins:

Tampa

Boston

Yankees

Angels

Mets

Philly

Cubs

Brewers.

 

81 wins:

Toronto

Twins

White Sox

Indians

Tigers

Texas

Oakland

Florida

Atlanta

St. Louis

Houston

Reds

Dodgers

D-Backs

 

75 wins:

Orioles

Royals

Seattle

Nats

Pittsburgh

Colorado

Giants

Padres

 

I bet I'm within 1 standard deviation of 90 % of the teams, at least.

[rluzinski]

The standard deviation part was not directed specifically towards you, sorry for the confusion.

 

I understand claiming that an eyeballed projection can do almost as well as a mathematical one. I think that's true. Over the long haul, you will not beat a good projection system with a 5 minute guestimation, though. If the person setting the playing time estimates incorporates all injury information, you aren't adding any relevant information to your projection that the other projection doesn't already have.

 

Over 1 season, you could very easily beat it, however. Just assume each team will win as many games in 2009 as they did in 2008 and you get a reasonable projection. The "coin flip" uncertainty isn't much smaller than the "true skill" variance, afterall!

[MJLiverock]

I would agree with you Joe Pepsi, sometimes these projection systmes are treated like they have reinvented the wheel or something. Basically a regression is just a line of best fit for a set of data points, doesn't mean it is going to be right on, just closesest to the wide array of possiblities. I can look at player's history and come up with an eyeball guess that ends up being being pretty close as some regression model and will probably be within the 1 SD band as well.

[Ennder]

The biggest reason to use projections for something like this is they aren't biased. Some people on this forum think the Brewers are a 75 win team, some think an 85 win team. PECOTA doesn't care, it just runs the number and spits out the data.

[joepepsi]

The biggest reason to use projections for something like this is they aren't biased. Some people on this forum think the Brewers are a 75 win team, some think an 85 win team. PECOTA doesn't care, it just runs the number and spits out the data.

That is a good point.

 

I just looked up BP's projection for team wins in 2009. Guess what? They've projected 14 teams to be within 5 wins of 81. In other words, half the teams will end up around .500. (just like I predicted above!) As Russ writes, luck plays a deciding role which teams are over, which are under. After that it's not hard to predict which 25 % of the teams are better than .500 teams, and which 25% are worse.

[Hart Of Milwaukee]

What Melvin did well is utilize this teams flexibility for 2009. If Gallardo and Parra can hold up theres an abundance of prospects we have to acquire another top of the rotation starter and if our starting pitching falters Cameron, Hoffman, Looper, Kendall are all in possible contract years and can be moved pretty easily at the deadline if this team falters. Whether this team wins or loses were still in a position for long term success.

[rluzinski]

Like I said, I have no doubt that a person can come up wth reasonable player or team projection in minutes. Those projections may even be "almost as good" as the more in-depth ones you can find at BP and other places. To claim they are "as good" is not really something that makes much sense to me, however.

 

And projections are not just based on a simply "best-fit" type philosophy. At the minimum, they need to regress their numbers and adjust for age. Those are two things many people won't do with their eyeball estimates. Many also attempt to incorporate park factors. These adjustments may only yield a small improvement in their system but over time, they will have more accurate predictions as a result.

 

And I wasn't inferring that projections should be measured in terms of standard deviations or anything like that. I was just illustrating that even the perfect projection system can look wrong for any given year. That gives some the impression that a reasonable guess could be just as good, when that just isn't the case.

[Ennder]

PECOTA tweaked standings a little based on SOS. Brewers up to 86 wins, wild card team sitting at 87 so it likes us to be right in the thick of things.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

It is also high on Swindle giving him a 3.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and DiFelice at 3.99 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in relief.

[Bring Back the Stein]

At the risk of sounding pedantic, the randomness of a baseball season, that which defies the models and analyses, are what make it so much fun in the first place. Adding to the fun are the characters and human drama. This Brewers team is chock full of potential, interesting storylines and maybe due some luck, the final ingredient that, hell, might just be on our side. Are the Brewers going to win 90 games again? Probably not with that rotation. But who knows?

[Ennder]

Noticed another interesting thing today on BPro. Looking at the team health matrix.

 

The Brewers look to have the safest team in baseball from a health standpoint with Weeks as the only red(heavy risky), Cameron and Parra as Yellow(medium risk) and the rest of the team green(low risk).

 

The Cubs as an example have 5 yellows and 5 reds.