Is JJ Hardy underrated?

[Ennder]

Seems to me that people still don't believe Hardy is legit on this site for some reason. Last year he was having a great spring training and then had an illness where he lost 10 lbs right before opening day. He came out flat hitting all of 2 HR in April+May. From June 1st on here is the statline he put up...

 

384 AB, .299 AVG, .351 OBP, .552 SLG, .903 OPS with 49 extra base hits in 94 games while playing very good defense.

 

This is a a premier young talent in the NL that we seem to not give enough respect to. I'm going to make a bold prediction and say this year or in 2010 he hits the 30 HR mark. 2007 wasn't a fluke and neither was 2008. So far the biggest failure of the offseason is that we haven't locked Hardy up longterm before his price tag gets ridiculous.

[sbrylski]

He's not a super athletic looking guy (Braun) or a super strong guy (Prince), he wasn't quite expected to be as good of hitter as he has become, and he hasn't done if for all that long. I can see still thinking he was playing a little above his head last year.

 

I think this might be part of your answer too:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3797_1605_SS_aseason_full_8_20080930.png

 

If you slide Hardy's line one age to the right, it nearly perfectly matches Bill Hall's progression the four years before he sucked again. I think people are picking up on that.

 

EDIT: And I did that below to make for easy viewing.

 

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/JJHALL.jpg

[Scooter1027]

Agree 100% Ender (as I usually do with your posts). Hardy is our most well-rounded talent as a legit offensive player and a very solid defensive SS. There are 3 Brewers I want to see locked up for the long haul and they are Braun (already done), Hardy, and Gallardo. This is the trio to build this franchise around. Lock him up, pay him elite SS dollars. Perhaps if we pay him the type of $$$ that elite SS make and secure his future, at some point he may be amenable to a shift to 3B if Escobar can prove himself to be a viable offensive player and forces his way into our lineup. I would think Hardy's instincts, soft hands and reliable arm would play well at 3B, and his bat would play there too. Or heck, trade Escobar for a premium. Bottom line I think we need Hardy in a Brewers uniform for a long time.

[Patrick425]

He's not a super athletic looking guy (Braun) or a super strong guy (Prince), he wasn't quite expected to be as good of hitter as he has become, and he hasn't done if for all that long. I can see still thinking he was playing a little above his head last year.

 

I think this might be part of your answer too:

 

If you slide Hardy's line one age to the right, it nearly perfectly matches Bill Hall's progression the four years before he sucked again. I think people are picking up on that.

I'm not sure I understand why that's "part of the answer". You could compare him to anyone. Why Hall? Are you making an assumption that his numbers will come back down like Hall's did? If so, why?

 

Edit: I didn't see your comments on the bottom of the chart. Still, the assumption that Hardy will follow along the same path as Hall doesn't seem to make sense to me. I'm sure if you looked long enough you could find someone that put up similar numbers to Hall in the first 3 or 4 years and then went a different direction.

[nate82]

I believe Hardy is both overrated and underrated. Hardy's offense is underrated and his defense is somewhat overrated.

[crewcrazy]

I think he's appropriately rated. Most people seem to realize that he's been one of the better offensive players on the team the past couple years, but his tendency of being streaky detracts from his value in some people's eyes. I'll admit to being one who's been very pleasantly surprised with how he's bounced back from his early-career problems, and I really hope the team can find a way to keep him around long-term.

 

I'll agree with Nate that he tends to be overrated on defense and underrated with the bat. That leads to a pretty even "rating", no? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Ennder]

Ok, I think he is underrated defensively so that is where we are seeing things differently http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

He doesn't make flashy plays but he has above average range and makes the plays he gets to. Fielding Bible had him as the 3rd best SS in baseball last year and UZR/150 had him as the 2nd best.

[sbrylski]

I'm not sure I understand why that's "part of the answer". You could compare him to anyone. Why Hall? Are you making an assumption that his numbers will come back down like Hall's did? If so, why?

 

Edit: I didn't see your comments on the bottom of the chart. Still, the assumption that Hardy will follow along the same path as Hall doesn't seem to make sense to me. I'm sure if you looked long enough you could find someone that put up similar numbers to Hall in the first 3 or 4 years and then went a different direction.

I didn't mean to assume that. I meant to show how we have a similar player who followed an undesirable path very recently, and that has Brewer fans approaching J.J. a bit more cautiously, irrationally or not.

 

In other words, I wasn't answering if I felt J.J. was over- or under- rated, but rather why he might be underrated by some, again, irrationally or not.

[brewerguy71]

I feel that he is appropriately rated. I think that Brewer fans tend to overrate him but baseball people and stat heads tend to get it right on him.

 

He has benefitted recently from his power output when compared to other shortstops offensively and really took a jump last year in a down year for SS. He is definitely not a top 5 SS in the game. I have said it before and will say it again, when it comes to Shortstop, defense is the primary concern, arm second, anything else offensively is a bonus, or icing on the cake.

 

Hardy lags a large part of the SS in the NL when it comes to the most important aspect of being a SS. He has a nice arm, but he doesnt have the benefit of making throws on the run or from deep in the hole because he just doesnt get to those balls. Having a solid glove helps but if you have the range of a slug, then what good is it?

 

He is just an odd case. His offense helps him when compared to other shortstops, but his defense hurts the team. We will all see the effect of having a great defensive player at SS when Escobar arrives, and everyone who thought Hardy was this great defensive shortstop will finally get it. You move him over to 3b where his arm plays well, then his offense becomes below average. I think in the end the team will have to decide when do they want to move Hardy and what they will want for him in return...

 

Weeks has bigger upside than Hardy at 2b, Hardy is at his peak, and when Escobar's bat is ready, the team will have to decide if they can live with Gamel at 3b or want to deal Hardy for pitching. (imo the latter is the best move for the team).

[Ennder]

Hardy lags a large part of the SS in the NL when it comes to the most important aspect of being a SS. He has a nice arm, but he doesnt have the benefit of making throws on the run or from deep in the hole because he just doesnt get to those balls. Having a solid glove helps but if you have the range of a slug, then what good is it?

 

Ok so this is where we strongly disagree. He has above average range, it just isn't flashy looking. He can play a bit deeper because of the strong arm as well which helps. He is nowhere near below average defensively. The stats tend to agree as well so I feel I can use them as validation for my opinion.

[strawbossisevil]

I agree Ender, I think many on here underrate his defense. Escobar is likely better, but that is because Escobar is a freak of nature type player who will likely be one of the best, if not THE best, fielder at SS in the league.

 

It is really unfair to compare Hardy to Escobar, but I think it is why many look down on Hardy's defense. However when we compare Hardy to his peers, he is almost always well above average defensively.

 

I think brewerguy71s comment about him having a range of a slug just goes to show how perception is not equal to reality. The guy is a very smooth fielder with great instincts that doesn't need to be making crazy diving plays to get to balls others might have to dive for. But because of that, he is looked down on as a less mobile SS, when the reality is, he is not. There are faster people out there than him, but often those people have to use that speed to make up for their lack of instinct (at least lack there of in comparison to Hardy).

[jjfanec]

He has benefitted recently from his power output when compared to other shortstops offensively and really took a jump last year in a down year for SS. He is definitely not a top 5 SS in the game. I have said it before and will say it again, when it comes to Shortstop, defense is the primary concern, arm second, anything else offensively is a bonus, or icing on the cake.

 

Hardy lags a large part of the SS in the NL when it comes to the most important aspect of being a SS. He has a nice arm, but he doesnt have the benefit of making throws on the run or from deep in the hole because he just doesnt get to those balls. Having a solid glove helps but if you have the range of a slug, then what good is it?

 

He is just an odd case. His offense helps him when compared to other shortstops, but his defense hurts the team. We will all see the effect of having a great defensive player at SS when Escobar arrives, and everyone who thought Hardy was this great defensive shortstop will finally get it. You move him over to 3b where his arm plays well, then his offense becomes below average.

 

Weeks has bigger upside than Hardy at 2b, Hardy is at his peak,

You make a lot of statements here that do not seemed to be backed up by facts. Most defensive metrics have Hardy ranked near the top. I know no defensive rankings are perfect but if he is near the top in all of them there has to be something to the fact that he is a good fielder. No one is saying he is Escobar but he is good and his bat is way ahead of Escobar's.

 

Next. who are five shortstops who are better than Hardy. Beyond the box score ranked the top shortstops in baseball. Hardy is ranked 4th behind Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins and their rankings look at defense and offense. He was 4th in OPS last year for SS and he actually would have been in the top half of 3B so saying he would be below average there is incorrect as well.

 

Lastly, why has Hardy peaked? He was ill to start the year last year and finally started hitting the ball in June. Even with those two months he put up great numbers.

[brewerguy71]

My reasoning on the defensive issue is not reflected in the numbers, because the numbers arent measured. Hardy had many balls hit right at him last year when he was cheating up the middle. This is a coaching effect, not ability. The main reason this was done was because of his limited range. Hardy's defensive "numbers" had a great boost last year because Brewer coaches and scouts had him positioned in exactly the right place many times last year. I guess the one number you could use to show this would be the huge number of OOZ plays he made than other SS (15% more in fact than the 2nd place SS, Escobar, who by the way, go to those balls because he is a great shortstop defensively).

 

As for him peaking, its just a personal opinion and its just as valid as any other opinion. I just feel that he has played out of his league the last two years. I do believe that he has made strides and has gotten better at going the other way with pitches on the outside part of the plate. I feel that he benefits from playing in Miller Park offensively as well. If I were going to take a stab in the dark ranking for SS in all of baseball I would say that Hardy did have a top 5 year last year, but overall he is a mid range shortstop. I would put Reyes, Rollins, Tulowitzki, Ramirez, Drew, Tejada and Escobar all in front of Hardy.

[joepepsi]

Defensively Hardy is more Ripken than Larkin. Like Ripken he doesn't get credit for his very good defense because he's not flashy. As I once heard Orlando Cabrera say on the radio about Jeter. Yankee fans think Jeter is great because he looks amazing going to the 3rd base side of LF and doing that spinning-fly-turnaround throw to get the runner at first. But if he had been playing in the correct position to begin with, the play would have been routine.

 

Offensively Hardy is more Miquel Tejada without the B-12 than Bill Hall. The thing about Hall, he was never really that good. It's just he was the only pseudo-prospect in the high minors at the time so he got a better chance than most similar minor leaguers ever get. To his credit he made the most of it. But he was never the player Hardy was, nor was he expected to be.

[strawbossisevil]

You talk about park effects and than put Tulowitzki in front of Hardy?

 

I think Hardy is a better all around SS than Tulo (who barely put up an OPS over 700 in Colorado last season despite the advantage of playing in Coors), Ramirez (who is probably the worst SS defensively in the league), Drew (although this one could be argued, they are pretty similar) and Tejada (who is not nearly the offensive threat he was and is not that great defensively anymore either, take a look at his stats to see what I mean).

[jjfanec]

I will give you Rollins, Reyes, and Ramirez, and Drew is about on the same playing field. Tejada is vastly overrated, Escobar has not shown himself to be as good as JJ, especially with the bat, and Tulo put up one nice year hitting at the biggest hitters park in baseball. Escobar and Tulo are great with the glove and could be better than Hardy but so far he has shown more.

 

There have been great points about Hardy positioning himself well and making plays. The reason I said all metrics ranked him high defensively is because each one has their flaws, but one site I linked earlier looked at all of them together and Hardy was right near the top. If you value defense as much as it seems you do how do you view a player like Hanley Ramirez who has a terrific bat but is terrible with his glove or a guy like Reyes who according to most scouts I read really struggled defensively last year as well.

 

Doesn't a guy who is top tier offensive talent (4th and 8th in OPS among all SS the past two years) and who at worst if middle of the road defensively ( i have heard nothing outside of a couple fans say he is less than a good to average defender) have a lot of value. When looking at his stats and his overall game I think he is about the 5th best shortstop in baseball right now, in part because the AL is awful at short. I see no reason to think he has peaked. His BA, OBP, Slug and OPS all went up last year and have steadily went up for the most since he made the big leagues. He is only 26 years old and i actually think his game will age well because he is not an acrobatic type SS. He is a guy who anticipates well and turn outs into outs (as old Ned used to say).

[apirk]

He is probably overrated by Brewer fans and a little underrated by most other baseball fans. There are just so many great SS in the league right now that he probably gets forgotten by some.

[logan82]

When comparing Hardy and Hall I think it is important to keep in mind that Hardy's first year in the majors was following a year when he sat out all but a month of the season with a shoulder injury. He probably should have spent at least part of the year in AAA to get ready to play baseball again instead of breaking spring training with the MLB club.