Rotation Order

[Jofis11ep]

After the signing of Braden Looper today, what do you think the rotation order will be? (Obviously, barring an injury in ST or another unforeseen acquisition.)

 

My thoughts:

 

1.) Yovanni Gallardo

2.) Manny Parra

3.) Dave Bush

4.) Braden Looper (home opener)

5.) Jeff Suppan

 

That brings McClung to the bullpen. I could also see a swap at the 2 and 3 spot.

[trwi7]

That's the order I would have.

[fallingleaves]

Man, thats not an imposing lineup. I just don't think either Parra or Gallardo will through at the level of other 1s and 2s across the league. I am fine with with Bush, Looper, and Soup pitching in the final three spots. If only we could acquire Peavy, then we could be serious World Series contenders.

[JoeHova]

It all depends on Gallardo and Parra. If they develop some, the rotation could be fine. If they get hurt or regress, the rotation will be a disaster.

 

I really wish they didn't have Suppan. sigh....

[strawbossisevil]

Gallardo´s ERA the last two seasons (small sample noted):

 

2007 - 3.67

2008 - 1.88

 

Career - 3.35

 

If Gallardo pitches at his 2007 level, he is probably one of the top 10 #1 starters in the league. If he pitches like he has over his career to this point, he is probably tops 6/7. He isn´t horrible, he isn´t the best ace in the league either. He is an average #1 starter (more or less).

 

Parra as well. If he pitches like he has in the past, he´ll be slightly below average for a #2. But if he improves at all, he´ll likely to be an average #2 or better.

 

Just because they are young pitchers who haven´t made a name for themselves yet, does not mean that they aren´t just as good at their position in the rotation as other "big name" pitchers.

[bklynbrewcrew]

There is no doubt in my mind the Gallardo has what it takes to be a legitimate number 1 starter. The only issues I see with him are how many innings he will be able to pitch after missing most of next season. Parra can really go either way. If he can cut down his walks he has the stuff to be a solid 2/3. If the wildness continues he will have difficulties reaching that level. Bush is a slightly above average starter and Suppan/Looper are definite number 5s who will hopefully eat up innings but in Suppans case I fear that he will be terrible.

 

Overall our rotation clearly has questions but can definitely be solid enough to keep us in contention.

[RobDeer 45]

My only issue is that it's a lot of pressure on young pitchers to be our 1 and 2. That being said we'll see what they are made of. If you want to be a 1 or a 2 you have to act like one and embrace it. I just hope it's not too early. But with vets all around them I feel confident they can step in those roles. It's time for the O to step up and support these guys. I'm excited for this season now that it seems all the main pieces are in place!

[JohnBriggs12]

In my book Bush is the #2 starter until Parra actually proves he's better over a longer period than 2 months. To list Parra who's coming off a year where he had a 1.54 WHIP ahead of Bush who's WHIP was 1.14 (and who'd career WHIP is 1.23) makes no sense to me.

 

Granted WHIP isn't the be all and end all, but it's a good indication of solid, consistent pitching.

 

My order would be:

 

1. Gallardo

 

2. Bush

 

3. Looper

 

4. Parra

 

5. Suppan or McClung

[patrickgpe]

While I never have cared what the rotation is as the only thing that matters is who is the #5 because they will loose some spots in April. I think Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Looper, Soup is probably a good guess. This would allow McClung to be the emergency starter, which puts us in much better shape than we were a few days ago.

[Ennder]

Gallardo

Bush

Looper

Suppan

Parra

 

 

That is how I would line it up. Parra's innings are still a big concern so I'd chip off a few innings by making him the #5. Will Carroll said that Gallardo most likely should be fine for 200 IP and he knows this stuff better than I do so I'll trust his judgement.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

In my book Bush is the #2 starter until Parra actually proves he's better over a longer period than 2 months.

I don't think people realize how lucky Bush got last year. His K rate declined and his walks went up but somehow his ERA went down so people think he was a better pitcher. Bush is the pitcher I'm most afraid of going into 2009 because the thing with luck is that it runs out.

 

If you don't believe me, check out this article:

 

http://fantasynews.cbsspo...sybaseball/story/11263536

 

Bush posted his lowest ERA since his rookie year, despite a career-worst 2.3 K/BB ratio and 1.4 HR/9 rate. His success just might have had something to do with less than a quarter of his balls in play falling in for base hits. An almost certain regression of Bush's BABIP towards .300 means you can't count on another low 4.00s ERA, all things being equal. Worse yet, all things aren't equal, as a dramatic drop in K/BB combined with a rising flyball rate would foretell an ERA spike in '09, even without the expected BABIP increase.

[Ennder]

I don't think people realize how lucky Bush got last year. His K rate declined and his walks went up but somehow his ERA went down so people think he was a better pitcher. Bush is the pitcher I'm most afraid of going into 2009 because the thing with luck is that it runs out.

I don't disagree however if you isolate his second half stats he showed the best skills he has shown as a Brewer. He very well may have figured something out in the second half.

 

His first 15 starts he went 90.2 IP, 46 K, 26 BB, 5.06 ERA and a .787 OPS against.

His next 14 starts he went 94.1 IP, 63 K, 22 BB, 3.34 ERA anda .642 OPS against.

 

Both of those included lucky BABIP but it is nice to see the K's go up and BB go down in the second half, back to where he was in 2006 which was his best season.

[chansen]

In my book Bush is the #2 starter until Parra actually proves he's better over a longer period than 2 months. To list Parra who's coming off a year where he had a 1.54 WHIP ahead of Bush who's WHIP was 1.14 (and who'd career WHIP is 1.23) makes no sense to me.

 

Granted WHIP isn't the be all and end all, but it's a good indication of solid, consistent pitching.

 

My order would be:

 

1. Gallardo

 

2. Bush

 

3. Looper

 

4. Parra

 

5. Suppan or McClung

Agree 100%. Parra should not be the #2. He may also benefit from being slotted in at the 4 spot to monitor innings a little.

[Crewin06]

The Rotation if I was a manager

 

1.) Looper

2.) Bush

3.) Parra

4.) Gallardo

5.) Suppan

 

Remember Gallardo pretty much missed the whole season last year and we are planning on going to the playoffs this season which would probably push the pitchers workload well over 220 innings as the top of the rotation starter. With Gallardo as our top pitching prospect, missing all of last season, and never throwing over 190 innings in a season, I think it would be wise to have him on strict pitch counts and skip some starts by having him as the #5 man in the rotation. I think it decrease his injury risk and keep him fresh for the end of the year so he doesn't die in September like Parra did on us last season

 

The reason I put him in the #4 spot right now is he would start the home opener vs. the Cubs which would create alot of excitement then later we can push him back to the number 5 spot.

[Patrick425]

I think Parra is a bit overated by many Brewer fans. I see him as being more of a 3 or 4 type starter over his career.

[Ennder]

I think Parra is a bit overated by many Brewer fans. I see him as being more of a 3 or 4 type starter over his career.

It isn't just Brewer fans. Parra is a massive breakout candidate in fantasy baseball. Take a look at these charts at this site.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/baseball_beat/

 

Very few starters live in that NE quadrant that don't become a success and almost everyone that lives there becomes a #1 or #2 type pitcher. A high strike out groundball pitcher is money pretty much, these are the types of pitchers you want to build a staff around. Shandler listed his upside as an 3.25 ERA.

 

In the second half last year Parra struck out 9 per 9 innings and lowers his BB to 3.3 per 9 for an xERA of 3.19 which is closer to his MLE's, he was just destroyed by BABIP in the 2nd half(probably from wearing down in his first full year). Parra probably has more upside than Gallardo to be honest, Gallardo is just more of a sure thing.

[homer]

"Very few starters live in that NE quadrant that don't become a success"

 

So there's hope for Jorge De La Rosa!

[Ennder]

"Very few starters live in that NE quadrant that don't become a success"

 

So there's hope for Jorge De La Rosa!

I'd have a lot more hope if he pitched in a different park and with a better defense behind him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bush's BABIP rate might appear to be lucky, but BABIP doesn't figure in HR, and he allowed 29. His problem has always been that balls hit hard off of him tend to leave the park. If half of those hit off the wall instead, his BABIP rate wouldn't appear to be as lucky, and his ERA would be in the 3's.

[giffted1]

I'd keep Parra and Gallardo together in the rotation for the sole purpose of skipping starts. I like Gallardo first and Parra fifth in the rotation. That way you could set it up where someone like McClung makes two starts, the first for Gallardo and the next for Parra.

[Patrick425]

Ennder[/b]]

Patrick425[/b]]I think Parra is a bit overated by many Brewer fans. I see him as being more of a 3 or 4 type starter over his career.

It isn't just Brewer fans. Parra is a massive breakout candidate in fantasy baseball. Take a look at these charts at this site.

 

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/baseball_beat/

 

Very few starters live in that NE quadrant that don't become a success and almost everyone that lives there becomes a #1 or #2 type pitcher.

Interesting. Thank for pointing that out. I'm pleasantly surprised at were Parra ended up on that graph for 2008.

 

However, the graph is a snap shot of a certain point in time. I think it's meaningful if a pitcher spends 3 or 4 consecutive seasons in the NE quadrant, but it seems like pitchers can certainly drift in and out of that quadrant. Looking at the list of 2007 pitchers that were in the NE quadrant, it appears that 15 out of the 26 on the list did not remain in that quadrant in 2008. So, it may be true that pitchers that "live" in that qudrant tend to be number 1 or 2 type starters, but it may be too early to state that Parra is "living" in that quadrant.

[Tbadder]

1) Looper

2) Bush

3) Suppan

4) Gallardo

5) Parra

 

Just trying to limit innings. Gallardo is coming off surgery and I think we should be cautious. Parra needs to be brought along even slower. He could go down at any time. Very fragile. I think Braden and Dave have the mental wherewithal to pitch against other #1s and #2s. Maybe switch Gallardo and Suppan but onyl if the medical staff is 110% certain of his health.

[Ennder]

Well he 'lived' in it in the minors too. His basic profile is a high K groundball pitcher. The big question mark is with durability and control. In the minors he had pretty good control, so far in the majors it has been spotty.

[crock921]

Here is how I think it will play out based of the past.

 

1. Gallardo (clearly the best pitcher)

2. Parra (lots of potential)

3. Suppan (this has been his spot for years)

4. Looper (squeezes in here to push the rest of the order down)

5. Bush (WAYYY overrated. After 90 pitches he is garbage, and besides the postseason, he has been a joke. I am fine with him here until he falls apart, like he always does).

 

I think Bush and Weeks are the biggest holes in the 09 squad right now, until gallardo gets hurt again. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[Ennder]

5. Bush (WAYYY overrated. After 90 pitches he is garbage, and besides the postseason, he has been a joke. I am fine with him here until he falls apart, like he always does).

 

Bush is actually the best pitcher on the team deeper in games, it is the first inning that gives him fits. He had a couple big innings late in games in early 2007 and people STILL think this for some reason.

 

Bush has a career OPS against of .749. The 3rd time through the order it is .764, pitches 76-100 it is .725. The majority of pitchers show much worse late pitch trends than that.