Braden Looper signed: 1 year w/mutual option, worth between $5.5 mil and $12.25 mil; Rottino DFA'd (replies #150/151), will report as long as he isn't claimed (reply #181)

[chansen]

Suppan will most definitely be a starter.

 

Encouraging numbers for Looper the past 2 seasons vs. the NL Central

 

2008

 

vs. Chc- 25 inn, 29 hits, 18k/4bb, 3.24 era (4 games started)

vs. Cin- 29 inn, 23 hits, 19k/4bb, 3.10 era (4 games started)

vs. Hou- 27.1 inn, 35 hits, 15k/7bb, 6.59 era!!!! (5 games started)... Not good

vs. Pit- 12.2 inn, 11 hits, 3k/5bb, 2.84 era (2 games started)

 

2007

 

vs. Chc- 27 inn, 17 hits, 17k/9bb, 1.67 era (4 games started)

vs. Cin- 14 inn, 7 hits, 7k/2bb, 0.64 era (2 games started)

vs. Hou- 24.2 inn, 26 hits, 9k/6bb, 3.28 era (4 games started)

vs. Pit- 17.1 inn, 15 hits, 5k/6bb, 4.67 era (3 games started)

 

Combined

 

Chc- 52 innings, 46 hits, 35k/13bb

Cin- 43 innings, 30 hits, 26k/6bb

Hou- 52 innings, 61 hits, 24k/13bb ----- Definitely his worst opponent

Pit- 30 innings, 26 hits, 8k/11bb

[Roderick]

Melvin can do what the Cubs did with Bako, sign him, but do not make it official for awhile so that they can clear a 40-man spot.

In that situation, does the player sign the contrat and the team waits to send it in to the MLB office? Or does the player wait to actually sign the contract?

 

If you have the player sign at a later date, that would be a little risky that some team comes a knocking with a bigger contract for whatever reason, and Looper goes back on his word. Considering Looper was the last decent pitcher out there (wasn't he?), you never know.

[liveforoctober]

I love the move.

 

Our bullpen would have been taxed to death with Gallardo, Parra, and McClung routinely only going 5 or 6 innings. Even though Bush, Suppan, and Looper are not the "aces" a staff wants... they can go 7 or 8 innings whenever needed... and I believe our offense is good enough to win games when our starting pitching gives up 4, 5, or even 6 runs ...

 

Everything about our pitching staff (starters and bullpen and lower level depth) will improve because of this. Using Seth as the long man and having Villa as a set-up is much better than Villa being long and having to strictly rely on Julio.

 

Nice. Let's get the season here.

[Kricket755]

I am with liveforoctober in that I love the innings pitched from last year (assuming it can be repeated, of course). If he gives close to 200 again, the deal seems like it will payoff. Does anyone here have any knowledge on the history of relievers-turned-starters and some dort of track record of their durability? Derek Lowe comes to mind. His durability has been outstanding since making the switch, though he made the switch at a much younger age (27ish).

[Ennder]

Our bullpen would have been taxed to death with Gallardo, Parra, and McClung routinely only going 5 or 6 innings.

 

There is no reason to think Gallardo will only go 5 or 6 innings and Parra should pitch deeper into games this year most likely, in the middle of the year Parra was going into the 7th on a regular basis, it was just early in the year when he couldn't throw strikes and late in the year when he was wearing down that he struggled with it. Part of the growing process.

[steve267268]

This is the summer of Gallardo and Parra. We'll be fine. It will be on our offense most of the time.

[jjfanec]

Tom is reporting that the deal is for 4.75 million and has a mutual option for the following year. Sounds like a pretty good deal overall numbers wise.

[JohnBriggs12]

I love the move.

 

Our bullpen would have been taxed to death with Gallardo, Parra, and McClung routinely only going 5 or 6 innings. Even though Bush, Suppan, and Looper are not the "aces" a staff wants... they can go 7 or 8 innings whenever needed... and I believe our offense is good enough to win games when our starting pitching gives up 4, 5, or even 6 runs ...

 

Everything about our pitching staff (starters and bullpen and lower level depth) will improve because of this. Using Seth as the long man and having Villa as a set-up is much better than Villa being long and having to strictly rely on Julio.

 

Nice. Let's get the season here.

liveoctober,

 

You need to worry about Suppan. He's a 5-6 inning guy. Gallardo on the other hand is going to be asked to go 7 most nights.

 

I also don't think this affects Villanueva at all. He was the 8th inning guy before this deal and he still is. I think we'll see McClung make 8-10 starts (a semi 6 man rotation). That might take 1-2 starts from everyone else and keep Gallardo to no more than 200 innings, and Parra to around 185.

[brewerfan82]

Is there any concern about how many innings Gallardo can pitch this year considering he pitched fewer than 40 innings combined between AAA and MLB last year because of his injury? Or is that not likely to effect his innings per game and more-so a worry about wearing down as the year progresses?

[clancyphile]

The deal for Looper is a good one. Makes this offseason barely tolerable between the [deleted] Yankees spending spree and the Sheets situation.

 

One has to wonder... would it be a good idea to sign Sheets to a deal with a little money in `09, and very incentive-laden deals in 2010 and 2011 with a $5 million base salary?

[patrickgpe]

probably a good idea, but i think the bridges are successfully burnt down where he's not coming here.

[monty57]

probably a good idea, but i think the bridges are successfully burnt down where he's not coming here.

 

Nothing really to base this on, but I think the Brewers shied away due to the injury. They knew he had it, Ben thought it would heal and the Brewers weren't willing to take the chance on offering a contract. If the Brewers had publicly mentioned the injury, the Union would have filed a grievance that they were doing this to keep other teams from signing him, so Melvin simply said that the Brewers were letting Ben test the open market.

 

As far as Looper, I know I'm late to the party on responding, but I'm very happy for the deal. Not that Looper is a super star, but he should do very well in eating innings with a mid-4 ERA. In addition to helping the rotation, this solidifies the pen with McClung, who can stretch out to become a starter if there is a significant injury, and probably puts DiFelice and Chase Wright in AAA as possible spot-starters when a minor injury occurs. As has been said, it also gives us another starter who will occasionally go 7-8 innings, giving the 'pen an occasional rest.

 

This may also open up a reliever-for-4th OF trade. We have a long list of bullpen arms, and adding McClung to the fray will make that list even longer. Trading 1 or 2 of them for a decent 4th OF would be nice, and could open up a 40-man spot for Looper without having to cut someone or give the Rule 5 guy back.

[rousieboy]

Looper is likely about a 1-1.5 win improvement over McClung. Better than what the Brewers had but given the available pitchers this offseason not really exciting.

 

Just like CC was a 1.5-2 win improvement over the other starter Milwaukee had last year. That was the stat thrown out last year and I think we all saw how utterly useless that was.

 

Projection stats don't take into account ALL the confounding variables out there and lack statistical significance at every turn.

[TheCrew07]

I actually disagree with Peavey's take on Looper/McClung the other way.

 

At any rate, using the best 3 months of one of the top pitchers and top talents in all of MLB is hardly comparable to anything Looper will bring to the table. I've beaten the flaws in the projection systems to death over the years, certain people are probably very tired of me pointing out the flaws, but even I'll give that a 2-3 win projection for Sabathia was realistic. There was simply no way to know that Sabathia would pitch the best 3 months of his entire career after the Brewers acquired him.

 

CC's performance was such that it only happens once or twice in a generation, he was that good. I'm not going to hold a realistic projection against Rluz, Peavey, or anyone else. If we're talking about a minor leaguer, I'm right there with you, I've argued that point repeatedly with Escobar, but for an established MLB player, 3 wins is a ton in 3 months. The fact he that was so much better than his projection is a testament to how brilliant he was, not how inept the projection was.

 

Projections are just another tool to measure value, sometimes they get tossed around like they represent true talent when they obviously don't. In a case like this where people are tossing around opinions based off of projection systems, it's hardly worth getting bent out of shape over.

[rluzinski]

Looper is likely about a 1-1.5 win improvement over McClung. Better than what the Brewers had but given the available pitchers this offseason not really exciting.

 

Just like CC was a 1.5-2 win improvement over the other starter Milwaukee had last year. That was the stat thrown out last year and I think we all saw how utterly useless that was.

 

I guess we should project Looper to have a 1.65 ERA for 2009? Sounds like a great way to judge this pickup! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Think about what you are suggesting with that kind of logic.

 

Projections give you the best guess at an average expected performance. That's what GMs have to concern themselves with when considering signings and trades. After that, anything can happen. Looper is projected to have something like a 4.75 ERA for 2009. McClung had a decent shot to be much worse as a starter. For a 1 year, $4.75 mil, this is a very good pickup.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nothing really to base this on, but I think the Brewers shied away due to the injury. They knew he had it, Ben thought it would heal and the Brewers weren't willing to take the chance on offering a contract.

 

But they offered him arbitration, so clearly they weren't all that concerned.

 

 

Projections give you the best guess at an average expected performance

 

I have no idea why, but some people seem to be pleased to no end when projections are off. I think there's the perception that statistical methods of player projection don't take into account gut/grittiness/clutchiness, and that they are evil, evil, critical poopoohead numbers.

[rousieboy]

Projection formulas are a waste of time...period. They have too many confounding variables to be scientific by nature. You never know when a CC will throw the team on his back or when Sheets will pull something or the effect it has on a bullpen, blah, blah, blah. It is the butterfly wing that creates a hurricane...silly and useless. 30 years ago WHIP and SLG% were pretty rare. Their usefulness pans out rationally.

 

This is where pocket GMs tell me the full extent of their inexperience...proceed.

[razzzorsharp]

I don't agree with you Rousie, boy to each their own.

[Gobias Industries]

Projection formulas are a waste of time...period.

Well I'm glad that's finally settled.

[rluzinski]

Projection formulas are a waste of time...period. They have too many confounding variables to be scientific by nature. You never know when a CC will throw the team on his back or when Sheets will pull something or the effect it has on a bullpen, blah, blah, blah. It is the butterfly wing that creates a hurricane...silly and useless. 30 years ago WHIP and SLG% were pretty rare. Their usefulness pans out rationally.

 

This is where pocket GMs tell me the full extent of their inexperience...proceed.

 

I am happy to learn from you. What do you suggest a GM should use when considering a midseason trade or off season pickup? What is the better alternative? Something must be used, no?

[giffted1]

I am happy to learn from you. What do you suggest a GM should use when considering a midseason trade or off season pickup? What is the better alternative? Something must be used, no?

This?

[PeaveyFury]

I actually disagree with Peavey's take on Looper/McClung the other way.

 

Actually, not my take. That was part of my post quoting endaround, FTR.

[Ennder]

Projection formulas are a waste of time...period. They have too many confounding variables to be scientific by nature. You never know when a CC will throw the team on his back or when Sheets will pull something or the effect it has on a bullpen, blah, blah, blah. It is the butterfly wing that creates a hurricane...silly and useless. 30 years ago WHIP and SLG% were pretty rare. Their usefulness pans out rationally.

 

This is where pocket GMs tell me the full extent of their inexperience...proceed.

I take it you think economists, meteorologists and all statistitions should be fired from their jobs? Afterall I can look outside and guess at what the temperature will be tomorrow and get it right sometimes.

 

Sorry but you are just being silly with this opinion. You cannot predict breakouts, injuries etc and predicting this stuff is not anywhere near 100% accurate, it doesn't mean there isn't value in the projections.

[reillymcshane]

This is a really nice signing, considering the cost is less than $5 million. As for McClung getting booted out of the rotation, that's not something we should get worried about. Until he's shown he can be an effective starting pitcher for an extended period, he can't count on being in the rotation. Plus - and this is more important - look at the last few years of injuries:

 

2008: Gallardo missed most of the season with an injury, Bush went to the minors due to ineffectiveness for a few starts, Suppan missed a couple of starts, Sheets missed a couple of starts.

2007: Capuano missed 1/2 dozen starts with an injury, sheets missed 1/3 of the season with an injury, Vargas missed some starts due to poor play

2006: Sheets missed 1/2 the year with injury, Ohka missed 1/2 the year with injury, we had De la Rosa, Zach Jackson, Eveland, Hendrickson make 18 starts with ERAs of 5.4 and above.

 

You get the idea.

 

Injuries, and players struggling are all very common parts of the game. You can never have enough starting pitching. Odds are that McClung is going to get a ton of starts - even if he breaks camp in the bullpen. Guys will get hurt, guy will struggle. Having him there to fill the void is crucial, because we don't want Wes Obermueller, Gary Glover, Victor Santo and so forth to be the guy taking the ball.

 

Adding Looper was a really solid move at a reasonable price.

[PKBadger]

Projection formulas are a waste of time...period. They have too many confounding variables to be scientific by nature.

You realize that the science of statistics = the study of the interaction of variables, right?

 

Head asplode.