ESPN's 2009 Organizational Rankings

[nate82]

I don't agree with Keith Law's placement of the Cardinals in the top 5. I don't have ESPN insider so if anyone who does have ESPN insider could you post where the Brewers landed in this. Thanks in advance for anyone who posts it.

 

I agree with the Rangers, Rays, and Braves.

 

Keith Law's 2009 Organizational Rankings.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I believe he had the Brewers at #13

 

For the NL Central, the Cards were #6, Brewers at #13, and the Pirates (#22), Reds (#26), Cubs (#27), and Astros (#30) all toward the bottom of the heap.

 

Breakdown on the Brewers farm system was that while it had good depth, they had little in the way of impact, star-quality prospects aside from Jeffress (if he gets his act together). I think it was a more than fair assessment of the Brewers' minor leagues. Keep in mind that his list doesn't include players that have seen any part of major league action. He also mentions Jack Z.'s large shoes that need filling in order to keep the farm system productive.

 

His analysis of the Astros at #30 was pretty entertaining, and he slammed the Cubs for basically drafting garbage during most of the mid 2000's. Reds got docked because Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez all were major leaguers last season.

[MJLiverock]

I just quickly glanced through some of the organizations and it doesn't seem all that well thought through but I don't follow the minors that closely to know, just some of his comments seem contradictory. On one hand he says the Yankees top four prospects have serious quesitons and as a whole the system lacks players with upside and the 2008 class isn't very good, yet he rates them 15th. He then rates the Blue Jays 18th while saying two very good prospects on top, some middle to back of the rotations guys, and a fair amount of high risk but promising guys. Just based on his comments I would think the Jays would rate higher the Yanks.

 

Boston ranks 7th based solely on the 2008 draft? Seems pretty high for a bunch of low level players with probably high potential, sort of the reasons why he downgrades some teams with too much low level talent, not enough upper level. He rates the Marlins just below the Sox and comments on the system being top heavy with 6 or 7 excellent prospects and not much depth below them.

 

On the bottom end he pretty much calls out some teams for just having horrible drafts and not much in the system after trades.

[StearnsFTW]

I think it's pretty well thought through, considering it's pretty much all he does.

 

I agree with most of his rankings, although I don't agree with Boston or St. Louis being as high as they are, particularly St. Louis.

 

He does contradict himself, as MJ mentioned. Particularly with Boston.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

How Gamel and Escobar aren't "impact" prospects puzzles me, but reading that kind of stuff is always fun.

[jjfanec]

How Gamel and Escobar aren't "impact" prospects puzzles me, but reading that kind of stuff is always fun.

I have wondered this too. Escobar was the number 8 prospect on MILB and Gamel was 23. That seems like impact prospects. I am sure Law must not be as high on Escobar or Gamel but when you have two guys in the top 23 that is pretty solid.

[PlayerHader]

Neither guy looks like a Fielder or Braun type impact player right now. In this writing I read "impact prospect" as a likely elite major league player. Both guys have serious questions yet.

[Kricket755]

Chorizo mentions that no player who has seen any part of major league action is considered for this list. If I understand correctly, that would mean Escobar, Gamel, and Salome are all not in the equation due to time spent in Milwaukee last September. I would have to think all 3 would be "impact players" if they were part of it. I find the fact that the system is ranked 13 minus the consideration of those 3 to be extremely impressive.

[jjfanec]

Neither guy looks like a Fielder or Braun type impact player right now. In this writing I read "impact prospect" as a likely elite major league player. Both guys have serious questions yet.

I know they have questions, but I am just looking off rankings and if a guy is a top 10 prospect (which I thought was too high) like Escobar that seems like an impact player. I am okay with the statement that we don't have any impact players, because each scout views players differently. I am interested to see what this organization will be next year if Gamel and Escobar are able to spend most of the year in AAA.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Actually, after reading through Law's rankings again, as long as a player is eligible for consideration as a rookie, they're included in his ranking system. So guys like Escobar, Gamel, etc in the Brewer system would be part of their minor leagues. I think Law interprets an impact player as a guy like Braun, Longoria, Fielder, Pujols, Howard, etc - a guy that will hit the ground running and be all-star caliber as soon as he sets foot on a major league field. In any given year, there are maybe 2-3 players in all of baseball's minor leagues who fit that bill. Low level prospects start to show signs of becoming that and replacing the blue chippers as they develop, so I think based on his ranking system, almost any team listed in the top 20 this year could be top 5 next year if their low level prospects excel.

 

He also seems to have put a lot of emphasis on who he viewed as having the best drafts in 08, which I think is being a bit risky - until prospects get challenged at higher levels of the minors, it's tough to draw accurate conclusions on major league ability.

[nate82]

Keith Law now has his top 100 prospects up today 1-25 are free but 26-100 are insider only. Could anyone who has access to ESPN insider post where any of the Brewers players rated on this?

[RobertR]

MiLB overrates Escobar, IMO. There's upside there, but a good year at AA doesn't erase all questions about his bat. And Gamel's glove is even more of a question mark. Law doesn't have any Brewer prospect in his top 25, so he's being internally consistent. Perhaps wrong, but consistent.

 

Saying that the Brewers farm system is deep, but perhaps lacking in truly extraordinary prospects strikes me as very defensible. We could quibble over the exact rankings a bit, but the Brewers are saying that they need the extra draft picks to restock the farm system, so I don't see anything wrong with saying that the current farm system is slightly above average.

 

Robert

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Escobar is ranked 45th, Jeffress is 49th, Salome is 71st, Gamel is 86th.

 

Clearly Keith Law doesn't like our prospects, but I'd trust Baseball America over an ESPN writer.

[jjfanec]

Escobar is ranked 45th, Jeffress is 49th, Salome is 71st, Gamel is 86th.

 

Clearly Keith Law doesn't like our prospects, but I'd trust Baseball America over an ESPN writer.

Gamel at 86th is crazy to me, because his bat will play in a corner OF spot or 1B (not the traditional big hr guy but definitely solid). I really do not see Salome ahead of Gamel because both have serious defensive questions but Gamel looks to be able to move around because of his size where as Salome is a catcher or DH.

I guess I can see where we do not have the top-end guys because I agree that MILB probably overrates Escobar but I think both Escobar and Gamel should be between 20-35.

[Ennder]

Escobar is ranked 45th, Jeffress is 49th, Salome is 71st, Gamel is 86th.

 

Clearly Keith Law doesn't like our prospects, but I'd trust Baseball America over an ESPN writer.

Sickels highest Brewer was Gamel as a B+ prospect, everyone else was B or lower. We don't really have any top end prospects right now in my opinion. Gamel and maybe Jeffress are the only guys who strike me as having star potential instead of just decent every day player potential. Gamel's defense will likely stop him from reaching a higher level and there are just a lot of question marks around Jeffress right now.

[brosto1]

I like Law more than Baseball America. I was surprised at how low he had Gamel, especially with LaPorta coming in at 27.

I cannot argue about the placements of the other Brewers' prospects. He gives very reasonable support for all his rankings.

I also agree with him on the Cards being a top ten organization. They have a lot of players in their top ten that I like a lot, including Rasmus, Wallace, Motte, and Perez who I think can all play big roles for them this year.

[TheCrew07]

Escobar is ranked 45th, Jeffress is 49th, Salome is 71st, Gamel is 86th.

 

Clearly Keith Law doesn't like our prospects, but I'd trust Baseball America over an ESPN writer.

I understand why people aren't high on Escobar and I'm not one to quibble over rankings as they are so subjective but I do take issue with Gamel being the lowest rated of the Brewer prospects and barely in the top 100. His improving defense/defensive shortcomings at 3B aside, how do we know he wouldn't make an excellent 1B or corner OF if he fails at 3B? His bat will play anywhere for goodness sake. Salome who has similar upside but no defensive flexibility, does everything unorthodox, and is arguably a worse defender is 15 spots ahead of him? It makes no sense and anyone who follows the minor league forum knows how much I like Angel.

 

As far as impact prospects go, Hardy was usually viewed in the middle of the class... Upton and Greene seemed to always be liked more, some lists had guys like Crosby in front, Ramirez was seen as a boom or bust guy by many. I'm probably forgetting the some other big propspects in that SS group at the time but those are the names that always stuck out for me, and I think Hardy has turned out pretty favorable by comparison. The point is that prospect ratings basically mean nothing because they are done mostly on upside, and it's impossible to know how far any given player is going to progress. I'm very comfortable with our next wave, I just wish we had more pitching in it.

[brosto1]

It makes some sense to place Salome ahead of Gamel, although I would not have them ranked that way. If Salome plays even an adequate catcher and hits to his potential that would quite possibly provide more value than Gamel playing first base. Law clearly thinks Gamel has no chance of staying at third, while leaving open the possibility of Salome staying behind the plate.

[ILuvDaBush]

Based strictly on upside, we have to have a top-5 system, at least 1-5 in our system.

 

Escobar....could be the next Reyes.

Salome...could be the next Pudge.

Jeffress....could be the next Doc Gooden (in a Gooden way)

Gamel....the next Wade Boggs.

Lawrie....look up.

[MessiahRp]

Based strictly on upside, we have to have a top-5 system, at least 1-5 in our system.

 

Escobar....could be the next Reyes.

Salome...could be the next Pudge.

Jeffress....could be the next Doc Gooden (in a Gooden way)

Gamel....the next Wade Boggs.

Lawrie....look up.

Wow, I think you're heavily overrating our prospects... it's one thing to be a Brewers' fan, it's another to be overly biased towards our guys.

 

Look we really don't know yet what we have in Gamel and if Jeffress can keep himself on track he could be really good but Lawrie's pretty far down the line still and Escobar to me looks like a great defensive SS who can't hit a whole lot... Unless something dramatically changes this year I see him as the next Cesar Izturis more than the next Jose Reyes... and personally I'd rather trade him for pitching and try to keep JJ.

 

Then the team can try to groom Gamel for 1B and we can decide what to do with Prince before the deadline next year. Personally I am more inclined towards paying JJ than to pay Prince since power hitting first basemen are easier to come by than great hitting, good fielding shortstops.

 

Rp

[Fear The Chorizo]

Every organization thinks they have the next Reyes, Boggs, Gooden, etc. in their farm system - perception is oftentimes not reality, especially when viewed through the extremely rose-colored glasses that many fans use when evaluating their favorite team.

[TheCrew07]

As far as Gamel goes, the Boggs comparison came directly from Don Money himself when asked if Boggs was a fair comparison for Gamel, and Don doesn't throw praise around lightly. When you listen to his pregame audio he isn't the type of guy who just praises every single player, he's quick to point out flaws in all of the kids he's coaching or has coached. His actual quote was something along of the lines of Gamel will hit like Boggs but with more power.

 

I think the disconnect here comes from people who avidly read the Link Reports and listen to the pregame audio vs those that are just looking at stats and what the gurus have to say about a prospect. Gamel is an impact bat at the MLB level, in that I have absolutely no doubt, I trust Money's opinion much more so than Law, Sickels, Callis, etc... I much more inclined to accept MLEs, CHONE projections, etc for players who've stagnated at AAA like Crabbe than players like Gamel & Escobar who are still growing as players mentally and physically.

 

Escobar's ceiling is probably right around Reyes if he fills out his body and everything goes his way, but he'll likely end up somewhere below that. If Escobar = Izturis it would be a flame out of epic proportions. Escobar could easily put up Izturis' career line in his first season, if Hardy got hurt he'd likely put up a line better than that next season. Izturis is as pessimistic a projection as Reyes would be optimistic. Again projections don't mean all that much for MiLB players.

 

Salome has a long way to go defensively to be a MLB catcher, but he's got tremendous potential and Pudge in his prime is probably an accurate assessment of Angel's ceiling as a player. As catching prospects go I'm more comfortable with Lucroy at this time because he's the total package offensively and defensively. Angel has all the tools, he just needs to start getting defensive results that match his toolset.

 

Jeffress to Gooden was obviously a stretch, Jeffress could very well end up a bullpen arm down the road. I'm not sure where I'd pigeon hole his ceiling at this point in time, I'd have to think on it for a while.

 

It's way too early to tell anything about Lawrie or start drawing comparisons before he's taken a single professional AB. Obviously I'm high on him but I don't see how there's enough data to support any type of conclusion other than he's a very good athlete and terrific hitting prospect.

 

Again a given player's ceiling doesn't mean anything, it's just their potential, which has nothing to with the actual level of performance they may attain.

 

People were very quick to anoint Fielder, Weeks, and Braun (the Hardy and Hart debates raged for years) as saviors of the franchise as they were shooting through the system, but are equally quick to dismiss this second group which somewhat boggles my mind. I realize our shift as a website has gone from the future to the present and I wonder if people just don't spend as much time anymore on the prospects because the MLB team is finally having success? There are impact players in this 2nd group, and this second group lines up almost perfectly to fill the existing & soon to be holes on the MLB team. Well with the exception of starting pitching, but if Jeffress and Braddock can have healthy and effective seasons at AA this year maybe we're better off than I think.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well Law did give props to Caleb Gindl and Lorenzo Cain at least as a possible 2010 top 100 prospect.

http://sports.espn.go.com...855023&name=law_keith

Caleb Gindl (A) is short (5-9) but strong and can really hit, with raw pull power; he works deep counts but his trouble making contact this year is a big concern. Bonus name: Outfielder Lorenzo Cain (AAA) is a great athlete who looks like he might have 0.5-percent body fat and who is now showing signs of coming into some power.

[DSFastball55]

Escobar....could be the next Reyes.

Salome...could be the next Pudge.

Jeffress....could be the next Doc Gooden (in a Gooden way)

Gamel....the next Wade Boggs.

Hmmm....Boggs is a Hall of Famer, Gooden would have been a hall of famer minus injuries and drugs, Pudge may yet be a Hall of Famer, and Rayes is on track to be at least a borderline Hall of Famer if he keeps doing what he's been doing. No, I don't think we're overrating our guys.

 

This has been going on here forever; I remember Rickie Weeks many times being referred to as a potential Hall of Famer even before he broke into the majors. I can name quite a few other Brewers minor leaguers that were MASSIVELY overrated on this board. It happens, I'm not ripping on anybody, I just think some people are not thinking realistically.

 

Edit: And for the record, I am not sold on Gamel yet. He might be good and might not be, but we certainly can't expect him to come in and produce enough to replace Fielder, who has already proven himself. And I think Escobar is highly overrated, I hope we keep JJ around. Jeffress I like though.

[TheCrew07]

When you talk about a prospect's ceiling, it's nothing more than absolute best case scenario on a given player's career.

 

Again the Boggs comparison for Gamel came from a Don Money pregame audio interview during the 2008 season.

 

Coach32sm who had both Salome and Man Ram in high school believes that Angel will become Pudge and has stated such on numerous occassions. He's also said in the past that Angel is the much more disciplined worker of the 2 and from the pic he gave us of Salome without a shirt on I have no reason to doubt his opinion on their relative work ethic. Angel's arm is fantastic, if he can straighten out his pop times and blocking he's got a long career ahead of him because his bat will play. That's a big IF though, it's definitely not written in stone.

 

I'm not going to defend Escobar beyond what I already have and right now I don't feel as good about Jeffress as I did Parra when Parra was coming off of back to back injury plagued seasons.

 

What does Gamel have to do with Fielder today? Furthermore no single player is going to come in and match Fielder's offensive production regardless, but upgrades at C, 3B, and 2B are possible. It's been stated numerous times that it's not a player vs player comparison when discussing moving Fielder, it's Fielder vs whomever + a pitcher. When discussing Fielder I don't think it's fair to just focus on his offensive production either because his defense is so poor it negatively impacts the entire infield and the pitching. If Gamel would replace Fielder at 1B he would likely play much better defense so his offensive contribution wouldn't need to be as great to replace Fielder's overall value.

 

The point is that the second wave of prospects while not as highly touted as the players that came before them are a very talented bunch in their own right.

 

Gamel spent most of the season leading the Southern League in batting, and Salome finished as the Southern League batting champ. Even with Gamel's extended slump (likely due to injury) he still finish with a 932 OPS and Salome finished with an OPS of 974. You can make the overinflated BABIP argument if you wish, but those seasons were better than Dan Uggla, Russell Martin, Andy LaRoche, Chin Lung Hu, Skip Schumaker. equal to Evan Longoria 931, similar to Braun 956, Justin Upton 955, and Shane Victorino 951. All the while at the same age (22) or younger (with the exception of Upton who was 19 and Longoria who was 21) than than the players I listed that I thought most everyone would know. If you're interested enough I'd recommend comparing their seasons against the Southern League's top 20 prospects each year going back to 2004. These kids can hit, if they can play D or not is still in question, but I have no doubt they can hit the ball.