I'm struggling with Cameron in CF

[PilprinBuddha]

Don't get me wrong, I like Mike Cameron. For a team that is flush with cash, no need of a LHB or on the cusp, he makes a bunch of sense as a CF. But that isn't this team. Maybe they are closer to being a playoff team than I believe right now, but this team still needs a LHB - Melvin stated he wanted a more balanced lineup for next year, unless he has a rabbit up his sleeve we will be right hand loaded again. We certainly are not flush with cash, and we still have not addressed our SP situation. Now, Gallardo may be healthy the entire season and be a #1, Parra might step up and tackle the #3, Busch might put it all together as the #3, Suppan might find the goove again at #4, and McClung might be a nice suprise at #5. Cappy could make a comeback of the year attempt and this whole thread is for naught, but ringht now, knowing (not hoping) what we know, I have a hard time being hopeful for this next season. We might be .500, but what have we done to be better than last season.......nothing except lose our #1 and #2 pitcher respectively. I expect Hoffman to be a wash with Torres.

 

Tell me I'm wrong....please!

[CheezWizHed]

You are wrong. You're welcome. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

This was discussed ad nauseam here: http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=16778

 

In summary, a team flush with cash (well, if there is one: Yanks) wanted us to take on two players that weren't nearly as good as Cameron (Cabrera and Igawa) and cost more in total (less this year, but Igawa was $4M per year until 2011).

 

So I believe it was tried and failed.

 

(fixed background coloring --1992)

[chansen]

I was frustrated as well with the LH bat search but then realized they are banking on a few players to fill the void.

 

They signed Chris Duffy and Trot Nixon to Minor League deals who are both LH and have played in the Majors.

I expect Gamel to see some time and get some at bats being left handed

They re-signed Counsell to a deal. His does not have power but has discipline and can play many positions

 

I see Hoffman being a lot better than Torres. Torres struggled down the stretch.

His era last year was 3.49 but his fip was 4.22.

He only had 51 strikeouts last season

 

Hoffman had a 3.77 era and fip of 3.99.

his strikout per 9 innings was good at 9.13

 

I do have a hard time seeing the Crew be as good as last year with the losses of Sabathia and Sheets, but we are about the same pitching as we were at the start of last year in regard to the rotation. Sheets has always been a injury pitcher and whoever signs him this season will be disappointed because I don't think he will come back from his injury. The bullpen has improved a lot in my opinion. We will get another arm before the season and I am excited about this year.

 

Oh yeah, and we don't have Ned Yost anymore. Our staff is good with Macha and Randolph as well as Sveum as the hitting coach. Discipline will be huge!

[chansen]

As far as Cameron goes, he is our best option at CF without a doubt.

He strikes out a lot but his defense is good and he still has speed.

 

Won't be long until Lorenzo Cain is the CF. Maybe in 2010?

[rluzinski]

Maybe Cameron is overpayed by $1-2 mil but he projects to be a bit above average 2009. No current possible replacement would even be close to average. I just don't see that Yankee deal making the Brewers better in 2009, even if they did pay all of Cam's salary.

 

3B and the backend of the rotation will be the major weakness of this team. Even 85 wins might be tough, IMO.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Rluz, do you have the statistics on how much a good CF can lower the team ERA with his defense. If people saw that stat, they might appreciate Cameron more.

[JoeHova]

Maybe Cameron is overpayed by $1-2 mil but he projects to be a bit above average 2009. No current possible replacement would even be close to average. I just don't see that Yankee deal making the Brewers better in 2009, even if they did pay all of Cam's salary.

 

 

the only concern I have with Cameron is a post I saw on Primer where the poster (forget who) talked about how few guys Cameron's age made it through a season as a CF. The list for all of baseball history was like 11-12 guys. I hope Mike can be one of the few, but apparently a lot of CF's fall off the cliff at his age.

[JohnBriggs12]

PilprinBuddha,

 

You're absolutely right.

 

They could have let Cameron and his $10 million go, signed Kotsay and Kapler to platoon in CF (they signed elsewhere for $2.5 million combined), got just as much offensive production and another lefthanded bat vs. righthanders, and had $7 million to spend on a starting pitcher.

 

Or they could have moved Hart to CF, saved the entire $10 million and used it to either get Abreu to play RF or sign Sheets for one year.

 

Or the could have moved Hall back to CF, signed Kotsay for under $2 million to platoon with him, paid $3-4 million for Wigginton to play 3B and still had $5 million for another pitcher.

 

Buy you and I are in the minority on here. Cameron can still play well in CF but I don't think he's quite where he was when he was winning gold gloves and it could be argued that without Sheets and CC, who got a lot of outs on balls not in play that a quality CF will be valuable. But Cameron better be good both offensively and defensively because in this market, $10 million is big bucks.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

All of the options presented above would yield less wins in 2009 for the Brewers than if Mike Cameron was in CF. You get what you pay for.

[Ennder]

Except Kotsay and Kapler are a downgrade offensive, defensively and health wise to Cameron JohnBriggs. And Abreu is less valuable a player than Cameron is, defense does count you know.

 

I think everyone is a bit worried about the rotation but I don't think letting Cameron walk would have changed anything. We still wouldn't have gotten Sabathia, it wouldn't change what they are offering Sheets and I highly doubt we would have gone after Lowe or Burnett. We still probably have the salary room for a Looper type if that is the route they choose to go.

 

Gallardo's injury really put us in a tight spot, if he had gone 180 IP of great pitching last year I don't think anyone would be nearly as worried now. We would have our mostly proven ace and then parra/bush slot in ok at 2/3 and suppan and whoever make 4/5 fine. It all hinges on Gallardo in my opinion.

[Oldcity]

Yeah Braun, Hart, Abreu would be terrible defensively. That would offset any pitching you gained and then some.

[3Putt]

I agree Rillo. This team needs all the defense they can get.

 

Ennder, I'm less concerned about Gallardo's injury because it was such a freak event. Plus he proved to be a fast healer/hard worker.

[Ennder]

But will he be able to go 200+ IP is the real question or will he hit a wall at say 150 because of the missed year. We already have duratility concerns with 3 of the other 4 members of the rotation, adding Gallardo we have 4 of 5 pitchers who can't be 'counted' on going 200 IP. That really means we need a real #6 SP most likely.

[rluzinski]

Rluz, do you have the statistics on how much a good CF can lower the team ERA with his defense. If people saw that stat, they might appreciate Cameron more.

 

It's usually presented as plays saved or runs saved over an average defender per so many starts. UZR had Cam at 13.3 runs saved/150 starts last year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...playerid=1070&position=OF

 

I don't think he projects to do as well this year defensively or offensively as last year, but he still projects to be roughly worth his salary. I don't understand why some are acting like CF is a prime position for the Brewers to save some money. Cam no longer has gold glove defense but he's worlds better than any other alternative right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just heard Jon Heyman on the Score this morning downplaying Abreu's supposed defensive deficiencies. His point was that Abreu fears the wall. Other than that he's a good outfielder and that because he played for the Yankees, this deificiency was blown way out of proportion. He figures over the course of a season, maybe 5 or 6 would be outs end up being doubles. He also notes that "fear of the wall" has helped Abreu stay on the field. There aren't too many guys out there who've played 150 or more games for 11 straight seasons.

 

Also worth pointing out is Abreu has had 7 seasons with double digit outfield assists. Corey Hart on the other hand reached 8 playing every day last year.

 

The names I've thrown out there are examples. My point has more to do with the flexibility they gave up by paying Cameron than specific names. We can argue all day about the relative worth of Cameron, but the fact remains that this team did not solve the 2 biggest issues it had this offseason and now with bargains galore out there, they have no financial room to do it. Now they are left hoping that 5 starters can stay healthy all year and that 2 of them who've never pitched close to 200 innings are not only going to do that but are going to put up numbers worthy of number 1 and number 2 starters. They can also hope that a journeyman like Mike Lamb can produce enough from the left side to offset what is still an overly free swinging, low OBP, right handed lineup. I guess "hope springs eternal" because at this point, that's all they have.

[clancyphile]

All of the options presented above would yield less wins in 2009 for the Brewers than if Mike Cameron was in CF. You get what you pay for.

Cameron's no longer playing half his games at Petco. With the combination of his power and defense, he's the best option for 2009.

 

In 2010, the CF could be Cain, it could be Hart (with Gillespie in left and Braun in right), it could be Irribarren, it could even be TGJ.

[JohnBriggs12]

All of the options presented above would yield less wins in 2009 for the Brewers than if Mike Cameron was in CF. You get what you pay for.

So you're saying if the Brewers had $10 million to spend in the open market and no Mike Cameron on their roster, your first choice would be to use all $10 million to sign Cameron over all the available talent on the market including some proven starting pitchers and left handed bats?

[Crewin06]

Honestly I think our 2010 outfield is Braun in right, Cain in Center and Gamel in Left. That is a pretty solid outfield. I don't think Gamel will be able to stick at 3B and because of that Hart will become expendable next offseason for pitching. I think Cameron will have a monster season and become a free agent next year. With Cain in the fold, as sad as it is to say Cameron becomes expendable. If Cameron does leave maybe the Brewers get some draft picks for him though.

[rluzinski]

Signing a 4.4 ERA pitcher to a 1 year/$10 mil deal is roughly comparable, I would think. I assume Melvin yould have signed them to a multiyear deal, though, so it's not really the same thing.

 

Where most of the disagreement seems to stem from on this topic is in measuring the value of Cam's offensive. Despite his relatively low BA and high strikeout numbers, he's still a decent hitter.

[logan82]

Our CF for next year could be Cameron. I highly doubt it though.

[strawbossisevil]

If he likes it in Milwaukee, and will come back at a fair price, I guess I wouldn't be opposed assuming Cameron's production doesn't drop off of the table this year. I want Cain to be ready to step in the starting lineup and succeed before we bring him up.

[Ennder]

I just heard Jon Heyman on the Score this morning downplaying Abreu's supposed defensive deficiencies. His point was that Abreu fears the wall.

 

The last time Abreu put up positive value as a fielder was in 2003. He had by far his worst year defensively ever last year, how much of it is getting old I don't know. His best year since 2003 was 2007 for the Yankees though so I'm not sure I buy the wall theory.

 

They can also hope that a journeyman like Mike Lamb can produce enough from the left side to offset what is still an overly free swinging, low OBP, right handed lineup

 

Somehow I doubt adding a LH bat and making our defense worse is anything other than a wash at best. Yeah we could spend his cash on a Looper type pitcher instead but again what we gain in the rotation we'll have lost in the field as we'll be stuck with poor production from one OF spot and weaken the defense. There is no miracle solution where Cameron's money is spent elsewhere and the team is significantly better unless you take shots at risky upside types and just hope they work out.