TGJ - out of options?

[TheCrew07]

TGJ is one dimensional, and if he sees time in a corner OF spot ever again I may very well break my TV. He's replaceable off the scrap heap at this point, he's a good defender that doesn't hit, there's tons of those guys floating around. As far as alternatives, the team doesn't have a ton at the moment but I'd feel better about them calling up Gillespie to fill an injury hole than I would be having them waste ABs with Gwynn. Other possible OF solutions are already invited to camp, you know the names... Nelson, Iribarren, Nixon, Duffy, etc...

 

Gwynn's defense isn't remarkable in nature, he's not in Escobar's class defensively, he might be a marginal improvement over Nix's and isn't any better than Krynzel's was, what's so special about him that he's worth keeping around? Look at the FAs and CFs floating around AAA, Gwynn's skill set can be found pretty much anywhere. If it came down to longer term CF solution I was serious when I said above that I'd rather see Cain get his feet wet than give Gwynn any meaningful playing time, he simply doesn't have a future in Milwaukee. .

[Never Outhustled]

Say what you want about his bat, but TGJ is the second best defensive OF they have behind Cameron, and he's not much behind Cameron.

Gwynn's career UZR/150 as a CF is -1.8, thats not very good. Corey Hart's career UZR/150 in CF is 3.5, he should be our backup CF. He wasn't last season only because Ned Yost was a moron.

 

I don't know if Duffy can play CF

He was a part time starter in our division for parts of 2 seasons. His career UZR/150 in CF is 4, so he a pretty solid CF. He, like Gwynn, doesn't hit though.

 

Our reserve OF looks crappy right now, but it did last year too, and then Kapler emerged as an outstanding 4th OF. Hopefully Nixon can do the same, and if not make a trade.

[LouisEly]

I don't think that either Gwynn or Hart has enough of a sample size in innings played in CF to make those numbers statistically significant. Having watched Gwynn in person play CF, I assure you he covers a lot of ground and gets a great jump on balls. I saw him a couple of years ago in San Diego get to a line drive in right center field up against the wall... don't remember if he made the catch or not, but Cameron was playing CF for the Padres then and the Padres fans said that Cameron would never have gotten anywhere near the ball. And Gwynn had the hardest hit ball of any Brewer that game, a line drive to the right-center wall, one of only three hits they got that day.

 

Nixon, unlike Kapler, can't play CF at this stage of his career.

[RobertR]

Even if it is an upside thing, you have to have outfield spots on the 40 man roster. If Gwynn doesn't make the team, his spot on the 40 man roster will be taken by another outfielder. The Brewers are probably carrying too many pitchers on the 40 man roster as it is.

 

Robert

[Spidey]

Thanks for posting that roster page with options:

I didn't realize that Nelson and Iribarren were both out of options. Does anyone think either of those guys would clear waivers? I personally would like to see Iribarren win one of those bench spots this spring. If he doesn't perform, so be it. Can he play CF? If not, I would probably take Nelson and Nixon.

[JJHardy7]

I didn't realize that Nelson and Iribarren were both out of options. Does anyone think either of those guys would clear waivers? I personally would like to see Iribarren win one of those bench spots this spring. If he doesn't perform, so be it. Can he play CF? If not, I would probably take Nelson and Nixon.

 

I get the feeling that Jack Z. may pick up one or both if he has the chance. I don't know the Mariners project 25-man roster, but I'd imagine Nelson would be more of a fit in the AL.

[endaround]

Nelson will almost certainly be gone. He becomes a free agent if he makes it through waivers and its hard to see him sticking with the Brewers if they choose to go with a broken down Nixon over him. He'll go to a team where he'll get a better chance of being in the majors.

 

Irribarren would need to be kept on a major league roster so it depends how many teams have utility infielder spot open. Irribarren is clearly a better option than paying $1.5 m for Willie Bloomquist but once you have Bloomquist that ship has sailed.

 

I wonder if Pena got DFA'd ahead of Gwynn because Gwynn's injury would have forced the Brewers to do additional shuffling...

[Molitor4]

He can't hit, and its becoming clear he never will. Bad draft pick, I really hope the team moves on, but I don't think they will. I think the organization views him as a babysitter for Fielder. Thtas a worthwhile idea, but I don't think its had the desired impact.

at what point has he ever been given consistant at bats to prove he can hit you really can't bash a guy when he gets maybe 5 ab's a week. even good players have a hard time putting together hits without regular at bats.

[Molitor4]

Thanks for posting that roster page with options:

I didn't realize that Nelson and Iribarren were both out of options. Does anyone think either of those guys would clear waivers? I personally would like to see Iribarren win one of those bench spots this spring. If he doesn't perform, so be it. Can he play CF? If not, I would probably take Nelson and Nixon.

gotta believe nelson makes it as a left handed bat of the bench especially considering his power and ability to back up first.

[kramnoj]

at what point has he ever been given consistant at bats to prove he can hit

 

He's been given that opportunity in the minors. Success in the minors is generally predictive of success in the majors. It would be unusual to hit like Gwynn in the minors and then become a good hitter in the majors.

[RobertR]

Yeah, a .687 career minor league OPS is not a positive indicator for the majors. Especially for a former college player.

 

http://minors.baseball-re....com/players.cgi?pid=6049

 

He's basically Jason Tyner. Gwynn doesn't have the ability to overcome his complete lack of power. Major league pitchers feed him hard stuff inside and he just can't turn on it. Go check his hit chart http://milwaukee.brewers....rID=448242&statType=1 and you'll see a lot of stuff that doesn't get out of the infield and most fly balls going to right center and right. Teams have figured out how to get him out.

 

That doesn't mean he couldn't contribute in a reserve role. Only that expectations beyond that have more to do with what people are projecting on him rather than what he's actually done.

 

Robert

[JoeDirt]

I think Tony Gwynn Jr. is overlooked in the organization by many people. He may not be a Braun/Fielder type but he did come up through the system with the rest of those guys. He played on the same Beloit team with Fielder, Weeks and Manny Parra. I've always been a fan of him for the simple fact that the apple usually doesn't fall far from the tree. We drafted Cutter Dykstra so highly last year because of bloodlines, so what is not to like about Tony Gwynn's son?

 

I went to Opening Day 2008 at Wrigley Field and watched him handle as tough a big league game as you could imagine. In a game played while Mike Cameron was suspended, Gwynn chipped in huge batting in the #2 hole and getting 2 hits (1 was a bloop the other a bunt), drove in a clutch run and played great defense. He had to go back to the wall on a few balls and he didn't look like he struggled at all on a soggy field.

 

Granted it is only ONE game but what I am trying to say is that we should't be so quick to discard him. He has paid his dues in the system like many others and he hasn't really been given a complete chance to prove himself in my opinion. The Cameron signing was okay, I thought that it went against the attitude of the organization, which was playing their own homegrown players. I'm still hot and cold on Cameron. I think he strikes out at an alarming rate and obviously he made a pretty costly error in Game 1 of the Division Series.

 

Gwynn has many assets to his game such as his speed, lefthanded stick, defense as well as intangibles. He may never be an all-star but I think we should keep him around to see if he can turn into a good team ball-player.

[JoeDirt]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gifAsk Trevor Hoffman what he thinks of Tony Gwynn Jr.

[JJHardy7]

How fast is TGJ? Do we have any comparable 60 yard (I think that's what they ran last year or the year before) times in relation to other Brewers.

[Spidey]

TGJ's going to have a hard time making the team if he can't play. If he's out a month or more http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/11425636 I gotta believe he gets passed over for a spot and clears waivers. Then again, he may not be out that long. Boy I wish we had some better backup OF depth/bench options...

[trwi7]

The only thing I can find out the 60 yard dash is the McCalvy article which only gives Hart, Weeks, Braun, Hall, Anderson, Iribarren and Hardy's times.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070228&content_id=1820348&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil

[CheezWizHed]

JoeDirt - welcome to the board! You could go back for a few years to see the arguements for/against TGJ and some were very similar to yours.

 

But just coming through the system side-by-side with Prince and Braun doesn't mean his numbers will magically improve from his minor league numbers. And as your account of his "good day" shows the problem. He doesn't have power. He lives off of bunts and bloop singles and that simply doesn't translate to success in the majors. RobertR above sums it up nicely.

 

To change the subject: I'm wondering if his shoulder impingment is going to prevent TGJ from having a chance at the backup OF this year? How well would Nixon/Duffy have to prove themselves to beat out TGJ (esp if he doesn't play)? Of course, I'm still holding out hope for Edmonds signing or a trade...

[JoeDirt]

You are right that just playing alongside them doesn't make is a given that he will be a good major leaguer. I'm just saying that they should give him 350-400 ab's and see what he can do. He might hit 1 home run but who cares. The Crew doesn't need more POWER hitters. They could however; use a guy who can get on base like Gwynn. I like his game and that is why I am an advocate of him. He is younger than Duffy and Nixon so I think that he can be a huge asset if used right. It's unfortunate that he's injured right now and that could possibly set him back but I don't think the Crew should write him off at least for another 2 years. His minor league numbers aren't overly impressive but I am convinced that he COULD play in the majors and contribute. Call me crazy but I think he could be a guy who can rise to the level of the competition. I am a huge fan of the GAMER and Gwynn fits that mold. I totally was angered when we signed Cameron and continued to question that move throughout the year. It pretty much blocked Gwynn from ever getting a chance to become established. An outfield of Gwynn, Braun and Hart is not all that bad. Another thing that I noticed when I saw his stats is that he doesn't strike out. He puts the ball in play and Cameron is a free swinger. I like the idea of having less strikeouts because Fielder, Hart, Weeks and some others are strikeout prone so you don't need that in your lineup. Gwynn best case scenario I think could be like a poor man's Juan Pierre (with less SB probably). Or like an Alex Sanchez (without the attitude issues). A slap hitter who can get 150-200 hits in a season in his prime if given an opportunity. That's best case I think, which isn't likely but worst case I hope he can be a contributor to a Brewer championship!

[TooLiveBrew]

They could however; use a guy who can get on base like Gwynn. I like his game and that is why I am an advocate of him.

 

The problem, though, is that he doesn't get on base well. Guys with little to no power like him just don't sustain a .350-ish OBP in the bigs.

 

Minor leagues (2,227 AB): .273/.346/.342/.688

 

Major leagues (242 AB): .248/.300/.298/.598

 

 

Take TGJ's best production at AAA (simply because I don't feel like combining seasons & crunching the numbers... so yes, small sample here) -- 2006's .300/.360/.396/.756. Plug that season into the Minor League Equivalency calculator, and you get a projected MLB line of .251/.299/.325/.624 <-- look familiar? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

I don't think the Crew should write him off at least for another 2 years.

 

I am sure that they would like to hang onto him for that long, but he is out of options.

 

An outfield of Gwynn, Braun and Hart is not all that bad.

 

Probably true, but an outfield of Braun, Cameron, Hart is much better. I hope TGJ has a good MLB career. He seems like a nice guy. I just don't think that he is ready to start for a team that is trying to make the playoffs.

[JJHardy7]

I am sure that they would like to hang onto him for that long, but he is out of options.

 

The most important part of TGJ's future with the Brewers. I would think he'd be a lock on the team if he was healthy. I've posted this before...I'm not a huge Cam fan, but I would take Cam over TGJ everyday. There's too many 'he could do this', 'he could do that', etc. I'm not saying he's not a MLB player...he's just not a starter for any team that is trying to compete. I brought up his speed on my last post because I think one flaw in TGJ is that he's not that fast. I wish I had some 60-yard dashes (thanks trwi for looking it up) to prove that. If he was blazing fast, that might make me look to having him as a starting and then 'banking' on him figuring it out on the MLB level. I just do not believe he does anything above average at the MLB level. Cameron could hit 30 HRs this year and come close to 100 rbi...TGJ may never hit 30 HRs in his entire career. He does make more contact, but given the fact that he doesn't have gap power and IMO good speed it becomes a moot point. Maybe he bulked up in the off-season? I don't know. My guess is he will be on the opening day roster and has the chance to be in the bigs all year. We'll see what he can do, but I'm not banking on him being a starter on the Brewers unless there's an injury.

[JoeDirt]

Who cares about his 60 time. He can cover ground and make plays. He also does have SPEED! 2004-2006 in the minors he had 30+ stolen bases. He has also had 3 seasons in the minors with 20+ stolen bases. Keep him!

[endaround]

He doesn't have great speed, he has huge holes in swing evident by his large K totals, he has no power, and his defensive is only good. I'd take Irribarren over him easily since Irribarren can play 2B, is 2 years younger (Gwynn is 26!) and has shown a modicum of power.

[Never Outhustled]

Gwynn's speed could help him a team as a PR/defensive replacement, but not this team. Our 3 starting OF's have good to great speed, and can defend their positions.

 

Also, if we keep a speedy/no hit backup, I might prefer Duffy.

[JJHardy7]

Who cares about his 60 time. He can cover ground and make plays. He also does have SPEED! 2004-2006 in the minors he had 30+ stolen bases. He has also had 3 seasons in the minors with 20+ stolen bases. Keep him!

 

If he's healthy, he most likely will be on the opening day roster IMO. I don't think it's a question of keeping him or not. If he's not healthy, he'll go on the DL and then if they don't need him when he is healthy he'll be traded. His 60 time does matter. I've seen Gwynn play quite a few games in the minors and I'm not convinced he's this big time speed burner. I can't say that for sure without some proof behind that and a 60-yard dash would be exactly that. Where doees he rank in terms of speed with the current Brewers OFs? I would guess that he's closer to Cameron (maybe Cam is faster?) in terms of speed with Hart (obviously) and Braun (possibly) faster.

 

Where have his stolen bases gone the past two years? He's combined for 35 stolen bases the last two years. He did have 20 in Nashville last year. My guess is that it's not accurate to base his speed off of stolen bases in the minors...especially at A and AA. I don't hate TGJ or anything like that. I just think he had to come to camp in terrific shape and play well in order for me to have confidence in him. It's too bad he's hurt and hopefully he proves me wrong. If he starts a lot of games for the Brewers this year, I'm very worried about their shot at the playoffs unless he's 'figured it out'.