Bronson Arroyo available?

[Never Outhustled]

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Reds are considering dealing Bronson Arroyo.

 

He was outstanding last year, and was off to a great start this year. Then on May 16th, he was allowed to throw 129 pitches in a start. Predictably, he was horrible for his next 6 starts, his ERA rose from 2.64 to 5.24.

 

The Reds finally gave him a few extra days rest, and now he's back to dealing. He has given up just 2 runs in 20 innings this month.

 

Arroyo is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game, and could be a difference maker for the Brewers. He's signed thru 2010. The Brewers have as much to offer the Reds as anyone, and Arroyo could be who Melvin was talking to Krivisky about when the Griffey rumor started. Get it done Doug.

 

My offer:

Chris Capuano,

Chris Spurling,

Alcides Escobar

for

Bronson Arroyo

PTBNL

 

This deal allows Spurling to be close to his family, and Escobar gives the Reds a possible longterm answer at SS that they don't have now. Including Capuano helps even out salary, and rids the Brewers of a pitcher who is historically a poor 2nd half performer.

 

This deal could also be expanded to include Dave Weathers.

[twobrewers]

I really like that offer actually. Seems pretty reasonable for both sides.

 

I am a big Arroyo fan and his W/L this year has been horrible, his other numbers aren't too bad and he has shown a lot in the past. It would leave us with an all right handed rotation going forward though...

 

How about we increase the deal even more and throw in a decent prospect and get Dunn while we are at it.

[jackalope02ca]

I hate the deal. Arroyo is a marginal pitcher at best in my books. He's highly overrated and last year was all smoke and mirrors. He would be a downgrade on Capuano.

[loghome44]

i thought the crew was thinking about either getting him ina

trade or in free agency,dont remember which one,a few years back as a redsock and they passed.

[PeaveyFury]

Supposedly he was being offered/looked at as a possible return in the Overbay deal, IIRC. The Brewers went with Bush/Jackson/Gross instead. Not sure how close/serious the actual discussions were at the time.

[igor67]

I agree that does actually seem to be a reasonable deal. We basically trade the slumping Cappy for a non-slumping version of himself without sacrificing any years of control. We give up a decent prospect for this, but not the moon.

[sbrylski]

Arroyo about equals Capuano, so I wouldn't add more to him.

 

Vargas+prospect maybe. Arroyo's good, but would he be better than Gallardo/Villanueva?

[Brian the Automator]

[ Arroyo's good, but would he be better than Gallardo/Villanueva? ]

 

Probably not, but Gallardo's going to have an innings cap this year, and Villanueva is really valuable in the pen.

 

Either the Brewers need to get an impact arm for the rotation or the pen, with Villanueva going/staying wherever that arm isn't.

[homer]

Arroyo has been pitching very well of late. His last five starts are much more reminiscent of his breakout 2006 than the rest of the year.

 

Last five starts: 35 2/3 Inn. 25K/7BB 2.60 ERA 1.18 WHIP

 

I'm not sure if I'd sign him to a longterm deal since he was abused last year and is already 30 years old but as a late season fill- in and contributor for 2009 I could get behind the idea for the right players.

 

Frankly, I think it would take more than X's proposal though - at least in terms of prospects (maybe add Cain, Gillespie, or Gamel in addition to Escobar or in place of Spurling).

[molitor fan]

Arroyo pitched a great game last night according to the Braves announcers today, who are fawning over him - saying he was nearly unhittable.

 

Arroyo is certainly a very good pitcher, has post-season experience, and has a bit of an edge to him - all positives in my view.

 

I think X's offer is a bit low for him...i think more along the lines of Parra/Capuano, Gillespie, and Fermaint is more likely what it would take.

[Never Outhustled]

Quote:

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Arroyo is a marginal pitcher at best in my books. He's highly overrated and last year was all smoke and mirrors. He would be a downgrade on Capuano.

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If he was overrated last year, how do you explain this year? If you subtract the 6 starts he had during his deadarm period his season ERA is 2.63. I think its pretty easy to erase the deadarm stretch because I'm pretty sure Ned Yost wouldn't let him throw 130 pitches in a start. He is back to throwing 94, after topping out at 86 during the deadarm stint. It sounds stupid that the Reds didn't give him a week off earlier, but I guess thats why Johnny Narron is unemployed now.

 

Quote:

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Arroyo about equals Capuano, so I wouldn't add more to him.

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If you curve Arroyo's Boston years for league and park effects, he's been better than Capuano every year, and its only been close in 2005.

 

The kicker here is Arroyo is red hot now when we need him, while Capuano is historically a poor 2nd half pitcher. The difference between them for the remainder of the season would likely be a 2 ERA or more.

 

 

Quote:

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I think X's offer is a bit low for him...i think more along the lines of Parra/Capuano, Gillespie, and Fermaint is more likely what it would take.

---

 

My offer probably is a bit low, but I think its a stronger offer than what your offering. Escobar is a 20 year old AA SS with MLB defensive skills, and was just picked for th Futures Game. I highly doubt Gillespie will ever be picked to play in that, and he presently is a struggling 23 year old A+ LF. Escobar fills a need for Cinci, who seems to covet strong defensive SS's, where as there pretty set in the OF, with the present group plus Uber-prospect Jay Bruce.

 

Fermaint hasn't hit in A+, I doubt he could bring a MLB reliever with a 3.02 ERA, having a 2nd quality season in 3 years. (Spurling had a 3.44 ERA in 70 Innings in 2005.)

 

To sweeten my deal, I'd let Cinci have there pick from our present AAA bullpen righthanders. Cinci needs more bullpen depth, so I think they'd like the oppurtunity to pick 1 from Bray, Aquino, Sarafate, Salas, and Dillard.

[jackalope02ca]

If I eliminate some of Wes Obermuller's starts he could be a Cy Young winner too. The overall numbers are what you get.

 

Don't blame a dead arm on 130 pitches for 6 bad starts. 1 or 2 yes but not 6. The guy just doesn't seem right to me. I'll admit part of it is instinct.

[Never Outhustled]

Quote:

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Don't blame a dead arm on 130 pitches for 6 bad starts. 1 or 2 yes but not 6.

---

 

Actually, it could go alot longer than that without rest. It really won't go away until a guy gets some time off.

 

Quote:

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If I eliminate some of Wes Obermuller's starts he could be a Cy Young winner too.

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When did Obermueller lose 8 MPH off his fastball after a 130 pitch start? I didn't just pick a random 6 games to take off his stats, and I didn't just chalk them up to an off day. The radar guns didn't have off days. His stuff was missing. Theres a reason every manager who is still employed adhires to pitch counts. If you don't, the results are disasterous.