Suppan's Future: SP or RP?

[CheezWizHed]

I've seen enough debates about trading Suppan, but the only way that happens is if we get someone with an equally bad contract in return. So assuming no trade and he is not cut, where does he end up?

I looks like a starter for this year (a #5 starter as our 4th best). Not too much debate (choice) there.

But what about next year? Hopefully we will have increased pitching depth in 2010 (Capuano, perhaps one of Wright, Welch, or Periard will be ready, maybe a FA or trade).

Would Suppan benefit with a move to the pen? I'm thinking of something like Dillard that got a velocity jump by only pitching an inning or two at a time. Yes, I would hate to have a $12million dollar reliever who might top out as average. But this is more about options than ideals.

[chansen]

I think he would be much more useful as a starter.

[rluzinski]

I think the chance of that is near zero. The Brewers have almost no starting pitching depth this year and I don't see that changing substantially by next year. Add in that he was signed to a high profile contract to be a "BIG GAME" pitcher and I think he'll be in the rotation through 2010. Suppan isn't even average but he's fine as a #5.

 

Every time Suppan is brought up, it just pisses me off. All I can think about is the dozens of time these two statements were made in that huge "Suppan Signed" thread:

 

1. He's a big game pitcher

 

2. We can just trade him if he sucks.

 

I hope Mark A. learned a valuable leason.

[CheezWizHed]

If he is a 5+ ERA in 2010 and we don't have better options, I don't like our chances. Perhaps I'm looking optomistically for next year, but I'm guessing we will have one guy out of the minors break the rotation next year. If we add one in a trade, Suppan becomes our 6th best starter (or possibly 7th). At that point, the most useful place would be the pen.

 

My question is simply "Do you think he would be useful in the pen (read: average or above)?"

 

(You can also say the winter doll-drums have got me down and I'm trying to stimulate some conversation other than the rut we are in)

[Fatter than Joey]

I think the chance of that is near zero. The Brewers have almost no starting pitching depth this year and I don't see that changing substantially by next year. Add in that he was signed to a high profile contract to be a "BIG GAME" pitcher and I think he'll be in the rotation through 2010.

 

I agree -- He will be benched with a fake injury before he pitches out of the BP, because of his ugly contract.

 

I also agree that the Brewers don't have any SP options to just flat out cut him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why should Suppan's contract automatically assure him of a rotation spot? The answer is it shouldn't at least not if 5 other guys are clearly better. Now they aren't going to eat $25 million so he's going to pitch and he's pretty much assured of a rotation spot to start this season because as of now there aren't 5 guys who are clearly better options.

 

But if he produces a season with an ERA well over 5, I think they have to look for someone better and let Suppan work out of the pen in 2010 likely as a very expensive long reliever/spot starter.

[Fatter than Joey]

Why should Suppan's contract automatically assure him of a rotation spot?

 

It's just the way things work -- e.g. Eric Gagne

 

The answer is it shouldn't at least not if 5 other guys are clearly better.

 

Agreed -- I am not sure that there are 5 guys that are clearly better.

 

But if he produces a season with an ERA well over 5, I think they have to look for someone better and let Suppan work out of the pen in 2010 likely as a very expensive long reliever/spot starter.

 

I think he could get cut in 2010 or shuttled off to the pen ---- not in 2009 though.

[Invader3K]

I don't remember anyone really ever saying "We can trade him if he sucks." I think the assumption was that he would still be pretty good a couple years down the line, and we would be able to trade him for salary relief if we had to. He's been below expectations, so the chance of trading him is slim to none now.

 

I agree that 2009 he'll still definitely be in the rotation...they can't afford to not have him there with their current staff. If he has another bad year, he could very well be in the pen in 2010. The Brewers haven't been afraid to shunt down pitchers when they've had to (Gagne and Turnbow getting sent to AAA, for example).

[TheCrew07]

If Suppan continues to slide it's likely he's in the bullpen or they just cut him in 2010. Periard, Jeffress, and Braddock would be available in theory by 2010 so they'd have some options. Outside of a trade for pitching before opening day 2009 I'm not sure how they can afford to put him in the bullpen for 28 million over 2 years, they need to get innings out of him if at all possible. I guess they could jump him without acquiring another starter with Villy, but it's been made pretty clear this offseason that Melvin views Villy as a reliever.

 

I know it's just a video game, but I've probably simmed through the 2008-2012 seasons with the Brewers 15 times in OOTP 8 and 9 which has a projection system as it's model (it's an easy way to kill a couple of hours here and there). Every single time he was ineffective in 2009 (5ish ERA) and horrible in 2010 (6ish ERA) and I just can't get past that nagging feeling of impending doom when I think about him.

 

With the lack of trade options the club had at the time of the Suppan signing it made sense, they really didn't have any other way to plug even average quality SP into the rotation besides FA. I think we're a different place now with Hardy approaching FA and Fielder regressing defensively, not to mention a couple of expendable bats in the minors with some upside. We've reach a point where we have realistic trade possibilities and I'd like Melvin to be a bit more aggressive on the trade front, doesn't matter if we're swapping prospects or moving MLB types, just be aggresive to acquire pitching. It's worked out very well for TB, it's going to work out well for Cincy, let's get some solid young starting pitchers and go from there.

[Ennder]

5 starts from the end of the season his peripherals and ERA pretty much matched his 3 year averages. The slide is still mostly just a bad finish. He is the same mediocre pitcher he has always been and that type of guy is going to see his ERA jump all over the place.

[rluzinski]

It was 100% "We can trade him if he sucks" and it was repeated about 30 times. It came every time someone said that Suppan would not be worth his projected performance for the last 2 years. Exactly why would someone say "We can just trade him if he's worth what he's making"? What kind of statement would that be a response to?

 

Suppan projects to be about a 5 ERA pitcher and I don't think it's likely that the Brewers will have 5 starting pitchers that project to be better than that over the next 2 years. And even if they have one that looks to be slightly better, they would just stick with Supan because of his contract. It's not right but it's the way it always works.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Consider Suppan as Melvin's biggest failure as a Brewers GM.

[Invader3K]

Well, I admit that I was in favor of signing Suppan, and in retrospect, think they probably shouldn't have. He just hasn't performed to even the expectations of average mediocrity most had for him. But there's something to be said that signing him sort of re-legitimized the Brewers as an MLB team and not some AAAA feeder franchise. It made the Brewers look like an attractive spot for free agents, and not just a place for young guys waiting to make a payday elsewhere, aging veterans looking for a place to finish out their career, or the usual diamond in the rough scrap heap guys. I know people on this board don't like to look at things like that, but I think there's some validity to it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It looks like Melvin has learned his lesson, though, which is good to see because he's not going after the Suppan type pitchers that are in free agency this offseaon because mediocre pitchers can be found at a much cheaper price either in the farm system or through low risk, short term deals.

[Ennder]

He just hasn't performed to even the expectations of average mediocrity most had for him

 

This is something I just don't understand. He produced almost exactly as expected by his career numbers so far. This is the pitcher he is, a mid to high 4 ERA guy. I expect next year he sits somewhere between 4.50 and 5.00 again because that is his talent level.

[strawbossisevil]

Let's wait until he actually posts an ERA over 5, before we start calling him a 5+ ERA pitcher. He's not as bad as many of you think he is.

[Invader3K]

That is true. I think a lot of people got frustrated at how badly he pitched down the stretch, and then in the final game of the NLDS...especially given his "big game" reputation. Kind of like how a few people think Sheets sucks because of the injuries and him not being able to pitch in the post-season.

[TheCrew07]

Well a 4.96 is about as close as you can get.

 

He's not bad, he's just not good either, he's averagish, was below average last year (injury induced or not)... and he's the highest paid player on the team to be our 4th or 5th starter. I argued that Suppan doesn't have negative value yet, because I don't think it's fair to take contracts signed before this off season and compare them, but I also see where people are coming from, he's very replaceable except his salary doesn't allow the team to replace him.

 

I'm not sure the data supports a lack of performance due to injury, unless he pitched injured all year. He didn't pitch deep into games with the exception of August, where everything about his line improves dramatically. He still made 31 starts, just pitched 29 less innings than 2007 with exactly the same BAA and nearly the same WHIP because he gave up 30 HRs in those 31 starts. I might be pessimistic in this case, but what exactly suggests that Suppan will get better in the twilight of his career?

 

		G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
April		6	6	1	1	0	0	0	34.2	40	23	20	5	11	12	5.19	1.47	.294
May		5	5	2	3	0	0	0	31.2	30	13	9	3	18	21	2.56	1.52	.256
June		5	5	1	2	0	0	0	27.0	34	17	13	1	11	20	4.33	1.67	.315
July		4	4	1	1	0	0	0	21.0	33	22	22	6	7	8	9.43	1.90	.367
August		6	6	5	0	0	0	0	42.0	36	14	14	8	9	16	3.00	1.07	.232
September		5	5	0	3	0	0	0	21.1	34	21	20	7	11	13	8.44	2.11	.382

 

edit. More telling I think is look at how he did by team, how many good teams did he pitch well against outside of STL?

 

		G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
vs. BAL		1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1.2	7	6	3	0	2	1	16.20	5.40	.583
vs. BOS		1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.0	9	4	4	1	2	1	6.00	1.83	.360
vs. MIN		1	1	0	0	0	0	0	7.0	7	2	2	0	1	5	2.57	1.14	.280
vs. ARI		2	2	1	0	0	0	0	12.0	16	8	8	2	4	6	6.00	1.67	.333
vs. ATL		3	3	2	1	0	0	0	21.0	18	4	4	0	9	13	1.71	1.29	.234
vs. CHC		3	3	1	1	0	0	0	15.0	25	14	11	4	4	8	6.60	1.93	.373
vs. CIN		5	5	1	1	0	0	0	28.0	27	15	15	5	5	11	4.82	1.14	.250
vs. COL		1	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.1	4	2	1	0	5	3	1.69	1.69	.211
vs. FLA		1	1	0	1	0	0	0	5.0	8	3	3	1	3	5	5.40	2.20	.364
vs. HOU		1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.0	11	8	8	2	1	3	12.00	2.00	.423
vs. LAD		1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.0	9	4	4	3	2	4	6.00	1.83	.346
vs. NYM		1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4.0	9	6	6	1	2	2	13.50	2.75	.474
vs. PHI		2	2	0	1	0	0	0	10.2	13	7	7	2	7	4	5.91	1.88	.351
vs. PIT		3	3	2	0	0	0	0	17.0	16	11	11	4	4	7	5.82	1.18	.258
vs. STL		2	2	1	0	0	0	0	14.0	14	4	4	1	7	7	2.57	1.50	.275
vs. SD		2	2	1	1	0	0	0	13.1	11	7	6	3	6	6	4.05	1.27	.220
vs. WAS		1	1	0	1	0	0	0	5.2	3	5	1	1	3	4	1.59	1.06	.143

.

[strawbossisevil]

Close only counts in...

 

Anyway, I was just addressing those who were calling him a 5+ ERA pitcher. I would be more willing to bet the under on the 5 ERA than the over for Suppan.

I'm not saying money on Suppan was well spent, or that he is a great pitcher. But most teams would not be opposed to having a guy in the mid to upper fours pitching in their 4th or 5th spot in the rotation.

 

As far as looking at how he did against certain teams. I would contend that most pitchers, even great ones, are more likely to give up more runs against the teams with better offenses, than against the teams with bad offenses. That is common sense. And really, all of those numbers are incredibly small samples, trying to deduce anything from that is probably not wise.

 

Look I get it, Suppan is making far too much money in relation to his performance, I wouldn't claim otherwise. But when people talk about throwing him in the pen, or cutting him, they are just not being objective when looking at his stats. He is an average #4 pitcher, or an above average #5.

[Ennder]

More telling I think is look at how he did by team, how many good teams did he pitch well against outside of STL?

 

That very well could be. His ERA by month has always jumped all over so not too suprising to see it jump around last year. The more runners you are putting on base and the more HRs you give up the more chances you are going to have to see spikes in your ERA with LOB% and HR/FB.

[MessiahRp]

I personally never thought Suppan was worth a big contract although I did make the case that we shouldn't have had a difficult time signing him if Pittsburgh was our main competitor (ie our team should be regarded higher than Pittsburgh by free agents now).

 

I think we also need to recognize that the huge decline in the market now makes Suppan completely unmoveable. Whereas you might have been able to shift his contract somewhere before there are a million cheaper options out there now because of how far the free agency values have fallen. I don't think that drop was foreseeable when Melvin signed Suppan but it does sort of point out the idiocy of a back-loaded contract that inflates right around the time you have to start paying your top guys big Arby money.

 

Suppan's signing in itself wasn't Melvin's failure, it's the backloaded nature of the deal that has helped squeeze our budget and make it difficult to pursue the players needed to contend in 2009.... that was Melvin's failure here.

 

Rp

[CheezWizHed]

Anyway, I was just addressing those who were calling him a 5+ ERA pitcher.

Funny thing is, no one is calling him a 5+ERA pitcher. I'm the only one that made that comment "If he is a 5+ ERA in 2010". I'm just speculating his skill deteriorating with age.

 

And I'm just asking that IF he does fade as a starter, could he be a 4-4.5 ERA pitcher from the bullpen? Because I'm about 90% sure he will be a Brewer in 2010. And I'm hoping that by that year, we have better options for SP.

[CheezWizHed]

I actually like Suppan. I'm not trying to bash him or anything. If our economy hadn't taken a down turn, I think he contract would have been expensive, but not outrageously so for his production. And there was no way to predict that two years ago.

 

As some have said, he is a 5th starter. He eats innings, and doesn't get hurt. We do need guys like that.

 

But at the same time I'm hoping to improve (from internal and external sources). So I'm wondering if he is usable as an RP for 2010.

 

If his salary "prevents" the team from putting him at RP, then you need to cut him (Again, assuming we have better SP options). You don't start him over some other SP just because of salary, because we are on the hook to pay him no matter what.

[strawbossisevil]

I think you can hope, but I just don't see it happening that we have 5 better SP than Suppan in 2010. Even IF, and I think its a big IF, he is over an ERA of 5 guy. He still is more valuable as a starter. He is a type of guy who almost every year makes every start, and almost always is around 200 innings. That is very nice to have from a #5 pitcher, even if his ERA is a bit over 5.

 

I don't necessarily see him dropping off too much, because his "stuff" isn't the type that generally deteriorates with age.

[joepepsi]

Consider Suppan as Melvin's biggest failure as a Brewers GM.

Really? He's been a league average pitcher his entire career. Some years the ERA's a little better than average, some year's it's worse than average, some year's it's average.

 

In 2007 he was pretty much dead-on league average. In 2008 his ERA was a respectable 4.49 on August 30th. Three bad starts after that pushed his ERA higher. I wish he would have performed a little better last year, but he's been within his career range as a Brewer. I guess he's only a failure if you were expecting him to suddenly get better than he had been his previous 12 seasons. That almost never happens with 32 year old baseball players.