Have the Cubs improved?

[strawbossisevil]

he simply said if the teams BABIP all drop and the rest of their numbers stay the same the team will score fewer runs.

 

I think it is pretty simplistic to hold every thing static except for BABIP.

 

If this happens it means their AVG will drop which means their OPS will drop.

 

Sure... and really, I am not arguing for or against Theriot's continued onslaught of NL pitching next year, rather that his inflated 2008 BABIP is not probably going to correlate well with a projected lack of production for 2009 -- and if it does, not to the degree a .070 swing in BABIP may lead one to believe.

If he isn't going to gain ground in BABIP, where is he going to gain ground? I find it hard to believe he could walk at a higher rate, he showed absolutely no power last season (1 HR, 19 2B, 4 3B, so only 24 extra basehits out of 178 hits (his ISO was .052). I think he has just about maxed out his walk rate as pitchers are not going to be pitching around a guy who has that little power. I suppose he could hit for more power next season, but he is entering his age 30 season so adding power isn't exactly something that is likely for him either. So where is this big improvement going to come from if his BABIP goes down? It has to come from somewhere.

[Fatter than Joey]

But BABIP is closely tied to OPS.

 

Sure BABIP has a lot of the same variables of OPS -- but it correlates nowhere as good as OPS to projecting runs.

 

BA is closely tied to OPS, but it in fact has a lower correlation to runs generated than even BABIP does.

 

Let's see what happens to his OPS when he goes from a .350 BABIP to a .300 BABIP without him adding any additional power.

 

Why? -- Player's SLG fluctuates from year to year, this is a very unreasonable assumption to make.

 

But I don't expect anything much higher than .700 OPS tops

 

Most projections have Theriot at .725 or higher, so you are arguing against them as well. None of them have anything remotely close to a .650 OPS. I believe your logic to be flawed and wanting.

 

BABIP does have a large effect on what a person's OPS is, and thus is useful for determining what a person's expect OPS should be for the next season

 

False -- I don't know a single projection program that uses BABIP as an input - and this is indicative of your .650 projection when most of the others are around .720-730.

 

You want to ignore what is a major building block of OPS, but its important to know how a person got at that OPS before you can use it to make predictions on how a player will do in regards to wins.

 

Again, false -- you can look at a projected OPS, and then use that as a good gauge as it correlates to runs well.

 

You are putting way too much emphasis on Theriot's extreme BABip.

 

You are still welcome to one of my Homer wedding beers.

[strawbossisevil]

Ok, first off I'm not suggesting that BABIP replace OPS. BABIP is one of the major factors we have to consider when forming someone's expected OPS for the next season. That's my point. I don't know how else I can explain it.

 

As for why the projections have Theriot better. Most of them have him dropping about 20-30 points in BABIP, which is probably fair. As it gets him into the .280-.320 range pointed to by Ender. Where I do have a problem with the projections is that almost all of them except for Oliver have him slugging higher next season than he has shown in his first two full seasons. My question is, why are they doing this? This is his age 30 season, why are we to assume he suddenly will hit for more power than he's shown in the last two seasons?

 

I think this is where Oliver gets his prediction down, because he predicts that Theriot will have essentially the same slugging percentage that he has had over the past two seasons. By doing this he is saying that while Theriot's BABIP will go down, his ISO will go up slightly from last year to a more expected number. I can buy that. It's part of the reason why I didn't say I expected Theriot to put up a .650 OPS next year.

 

Oliver is the only one that doesn't have this large increase in SLG% and so his prediction of .695 is about right. He still has Theriot with a BABIP at .310, and I am not entirely convinced that he will be even .010 points better than average. But I definitely think Oliver's prediction is much more on the ball then the other three.

 

Edit: I should add that one of the problems with projections is often with players such as Theriot who don't have a long history of being in the league, they apply regression to the mean. Meaning bringing him toward league average. This often works well for younger players who are going to be improving and heading more toward the mean as they get closer to their primes, but I think where it fails is when the same system predicts a regression to the mean for a late arriver to the MLB, like Theriot. Who is actually already at his prime or past it. So while regressing to the mean in slugging works great for the 24 year old, for the 30 year old, it doesn't.

[logan82]

A player who drops 20 points of BABIP would drop fewer points of BA. BA takes K's and HR into account. BABIP does not. Depending on the player, dropping 50 points of BABIP might only drop his average 30-40 points.(just for an example)

 

I will also throw out Matt Holliday as a player who maintains a .356 career BABIP.(Coors inflated maybe)

 

Also, I dont' think the Cubs improved this offseason, but they didn't have to. They are head and shoulders better than anybody esle in the central. Add to that the fact that nobody else improved through player signings and most don't have enough young players to imrove by more than a few wins from within. The Cubs are still the clear favorit in the central.

[strawbossisevil]

True, good point. Didn't think about the Ks. With Theriot, HRs isn't an issue. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

BABIP is one of the major factors we have to consider when forming someone's expected OPS for the next season. That's my point. I don't know how else I can explain it.

 

Please show me an example of "we have to consider", show me a projection system that looks at BABip for batters and incorporates it into their projections - I think you are largely hand-waving through data -- which is fine -- and you could make reasonable conclusions from.

 

Most of them have him dropping about 20-30 points in BABIP

 

Did you actually calculate this, or are you spitballing? Like you were when you said this:

 

If that happens, if he doesn't hit for more power in his ABs than he did the previous season. His OPS would be .650.

 

Then you arbitrarily add .05 pts to get him to ".700 tops" -- you may be right but your methodology is suspect.

[TheRealMattKain]

I'd be surprised if you can't count the number of players in modern baseball that are over.340 BABIP career on two hands to be honest. Very few sit over .320.

 

Over .340 does appear to be very, very rare.

 

http://reconditebaseball....extreme-career-babip.html

Highest Career BABIP, Minimum 3000 PA, 1913-2007

Ty Cobb, .3785

Rogers Hornsby, .3655

Derek Jeter, .3613

Rod Carew, .3585

Ichiro Suzuki, .3572

Miguel Cabrera, .3538

Harry Heilmann, .3511

Joe Jackson, .3507

Tris Speaker, .3503

Bill Terry, .3500

Bobby Abreu, .3489

Ron LeFlore, .3466

Riggs Stephenson, .3459

George Sisler, .3458

Kiki Cuyler, .3456

Ross Youngs, .3454

Wade Boggs, .3438

Roberto Clemente, .3429

Kirby Puckett, .3421

Tony Gwynn, .3414

 

 

[strawbossisevil]

Bill James, Chone, Marcel and Oliver all include BABIP in their projections.

 

Bill James has Theriot predicted to have a BABIP of .320.

 

Chone has him predicted to have a BABIP of .312.

 

Marcel has him predicted to have a BABIP of .316.

 

Oliver has him predicted to have a BABIP of .309.

 

Like I said, in Bill James, Chone and Marcel, all three have him improving on his slugging precentage. Pushing it up into the .360s or .370s. These projections exceed his slg precentages of his previous two seasons. And in order to meet these projections while dropping twenty points or more in BABIP his ISO would have to increase substantially. Something you might expect from a 25 year old, but not someone who is going on 30. Oliver however, puts his slugging right between where he's been these past two seasons. With his drop in BABIP that seems to be right on.

 

After figuring Ks into the picture, that would bring his expected OPS much closer to what Oliver has predicted. I came up with about .675.

[Fatter than Joey]

Bill James, Chone, Marcel and Oliver all include BABIP in their projections.

 

I am sure you can calculate BABIP from projections. -- but the question I asked, -- what projections system uses BABIP from past years to calculate their projection?

 

Something you might expect from a 25 year old, but not someone who is going on 30.

 

Why not? -- Their projections are in a large part based on historical data, they have a reason to think Theriot's SLG will improve.

 

So... The bottom line in all of this, is that you think Theriot will fall from .746 to .675 in OPS?

[strawbossisevil]

I expect him to be in the upper .600s, yes. He could certainly get lucky again, but I think it is likely to expect that he ends up with an OPS about .050 lower.

 

So most people going on 30 have an increase of power? I find that hard to believe. I think his increased SLG has more to do with the lack of stats to draw from, so they add some regression to the league mean, as that is how those projection systems work. And like I pointed out that regression to the mean works when we are talking about a young player, but for a "late bloomer" like Theriot, it may tend to over emphasize increases in certain areas.

[Fatter than Joey]

So most people going on 30 have an increase of power?

 

I don't think that they decrease. Generally players are defined to be in their prime when they are 30.

[strawbossisevil]

I never said I expected him to decrease, I just don't see any reason for a signficant increase. A player's prime is generally considered to be from 27-29, so Theriot is likely at the end of his prime.

[BADGERJOBOB]

A Zambrano and Harden injury is pretty likely and Soriano is known to miss a few games here and there. There's no way Theriot plays as well as he did in 2008. Given all of those things, the Cubs are still a step above the rest of the NL Central, but that's why they play the games, I guess.

Well if we use that logic than a Gallardo and Parra injury is also pretty likely and JJ Hardy is known to miss a few games here and there as well.

 

The Cubs are still the cream of the crop in this division and the rest of the teams in it need a season where everything goes right for them to be able to compete with the Cubs.

[Fatter than Joey]

Theriot will be 29 all season.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Last year's Minnesota Twins are what I keep looking at for giving us hope. A team that lost Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Torii Hunter still contended, although they got very lucky in the process. So with a little luck, the Brewers could be back in the playoffs.

Did the Twins make the playoffs last year with that luck?

[TooLiveBrew]

Generally players are defined to be in their prime when they are 30.

 

By 30, baseball players as a group have seen their production decline by a small to noticeable amount (from peak at age 26-27). I don't think 30 is really viewed as a prime-aged season anymore, and if it is, it's at or near the end of that spectrum.

 

 

JJ Hardy is known to miss a few games here and there as well.

 

I'm sorry, but the effort to label Hardy as injury-prone imo is a huge waste of time. Two very, very legit & serious injuries that had nothing to do with any inclination to get hurt easier than anyone else.

[strawbossisevil]

Ah, he is a December birthday. So are you saying you expect him to make huge gains in slugging this year like some of the projections claim? That you are on board with that? Because that is essentially the difference between saying that he is likely to end up with an OPS in the high .600s vs. going with projections that claim he'll be in the low .700s.

 

It seems clear that all projections see some regression from Theriot for next season, even with the increased slugging. That much we can agree on. So to state that he is likely going to be a downgrade for the Cubs next season is probably likely, no matter whether you look at his BABIP that he is not likely to repeat, or the various projections for him out there, many which seem optimistic about his ability to add a significant amount of power at age 29. So it's likely a downgrade for the Cubs, the only question is how big of a downgrade?

 

The same can be said for Fontenaut, who all of the projections expect him him to head back toward average with his BABIP and the effect that drop in BABIP will have on his overall stats. (With it being very unlikely that he repeats his .355 BABIP). Same can be said for Johnson, who put up a BABIP of .367. Same for Bradley whose BABIP was in the .390s (no one has ever maintained a number that high in their career).

 

Add on to that injury concerns and the fact that many of their players (Lee, Soriano, Ramirez) are on the downside of their careers where regression is far more likely than improvement. And I don't see how anyone can claim that their offense is going to be equal or better than what it was last season.

 

I think the Cubs of '09 are a clear downgrade from the Cubs of '08. The only question is, if any other team in the division can put things together to catch them. If two or three of Prince, Hall, Braun, Weeks, and Hart have a stronger '09, and our pitching holds together. We could be challenging for the division.

 

I'll keep pointing this out, pretty much everyone thought that the AL Central would go to the Tigers or Indians last season. No one gave the White Sox or Twins a passing thought. But look how it ended up! The Cubs may be the favorite, but they are not head and shoulders above everyone else in the division that they are uncatchable.

[jjfanec]

Well if we use that logic than a Gallardo and Parra injury is also pretty likely and JJ Hardy is known to miss a few games here and there as well.

This is a thread asking if the Cubs have improved. I think most fans are anxious to rely on two young pitchers one coming off an injury and another who has had a history of injuries. So, we are honest and not setting a double-standard. The overwhelming majority of people on this board seem to have a realistic view of the team going into next year. We know the Brewers have a lot of questions. However, what this threads main point is is that the Cubs also have more weaknesses than some may realize and their off-season was underwhelming.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think 30 is really viewed as a prime-aged season anymore, and if it is, it's at or near the end of that spectrum.

 

Sure it is:

 

A's GM Billy Beane, defines a player's prime as 26 to 31 years of age

 

It's not as if all players peak at 27, and decrease and increase equally. -- and Theriot will be 29.

 

So are you saying you expect him to make huge gains in slugging this year like some of the projections claim?

 

I think he do better than 19 2bs and 1 HR in 580 ABS -- yes for sure I think that.

 

So it's likely a downgrade for the Cubs, the only question is how big of a downgrade?

 

Agreed -- I think every OPS projection has him slipping in 2009. -- I think though OPS comparisons give you a much better idea of how much -- I think the BABip difference exaggerates things. OPS correlates very well to runs -- BABIP does not.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Did the Twins make the playoffs last year with that luck?

 

They made it to game 163, which is farther than all but 8 other teams. You can't really call getting to a one game playoff for the division title a bad season.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's not as if all players peak at 27, and decrease and increase equally.

 

Of course not. That's why I said, "baseball players as a group", which you left out. While 30 is right at the edge of being a prime year or not, it's certainly reasonable to expect a bit of decline by that age.

[Fatter than Joey]

Of course not. That's why I said, "baseball players as a group", which you left out

 

Then why make such a general and vague statement when we are talking about a specific player

 

While 30 is right at the edge of being a prime year or not, it's certainly reasonable to expect a bit of decline by that age.

 

Theriot is 29 -- and with regards to power and HRs -- players peak around 28-29

[strawbossisevil]

Yes, so what is the biggest thing that is causing him to drop in his OPS for next season in the projections? It isn't the slight downtick in walk rate, or slight uptick in slugging. It is the fact that all of the projections have him with a BABIP .020 points lower. That is the biggest change between what he put up last season and what they are projecting him to put up next season.

 

Look, I don't know how to explain this to you any better but I am not merely looking at BABIP and comparing it to runs. I am pointing out the relationship between BABIP and OPS. As BABIP goes up or down, the secondary stats that form OPS are effected. So if a person's BABIP is likely to decrease by quite a bit, so is their OBP and SLG unless they drastically increase their walk rates or their ISO goes up significantly to match what production was lost by having a drop in their BABIP. Having a lower BABIP is likely to cause a lower OPS, a lower OPS leads to lower runs. So while it can't be the only thing looked at when considering how many runs a player will score next season, it certainly is far more likely that a lower BABIP will also lead to a lower OPS and less runs. In looking at the Cubs players who posted above average BABIP, it is unlikely that any of them would increase enough in SLG or OBP to make up for a drop from their 2008 numbers with the high BABIP. It is likely that their OPS takes a hit, and by extension, the amount of runs they score.

 

I should add that not many players can make up for a drop of .030 or .040 points or more in BABIP by increased ISO and walk rates. So the OPS of most players who drop by that much in BABIP is almost guaranteed to go down. The Cubs have a whole handful of guys who will have to do just that if they expect to equal the offensive output of 2008.

[TooLiveBrew]

Then why make such a general and vague statement when we are talking about a specific player

 

I wasn't talking about Theriot, FtJ, you were. You made a point about age 30 being a prime-aged season. I thought it was worth mentioning that while it is near the end of a player's prime, baseball players as a whole see a dropoff in production by that age. I think that's a pretty relevant point.

[Fatter than Joey]

Yes, so what is the biggest thing that is causing him to drop in his OPS for next season in the projections?

 

His BA.

 

Look, I don't know how to explain this to you any better but I am not merely looking at BABIP and comparing it to runs

 

Look, I think your methodology is very flawed -- and you are using BABip to overstate your case.

 

I can agree with you that Theriot is probably not going to repeat a .746 OPS -- however I think your methodology that takes you to .675 is wanting.

 

I think he will be worse, but only the difference from .746 OPS to .725 OPS -- that correlates to runs better, and gives a more accurate picture of what to expect, or not to expect from Theriot.