Have the Cubs improved?

[Weirdos19]

Pretty general question.

 

But, we all knew that both teams weakness last year was the lack of left handed hitting. Sure the Cubs added Milton Bradley, a switch hitter. But, they lose Edmonds, who was the only left handed bat in their lineup most days.

 

Cubs '08- Edmonds, Fukudome, Hoffpauir, and Fontenot

Cubs '09- Bradley, Fukudome, Hoffpauir, and Fontenot

 

I just don't see the big improvement that makes them better than last year. You could argue that Edmonds actually was better than Bradley will be this year. Not only offensively, but with the glove too.

 

Then you have to consider that they gave up DeRosa, which mystifies me. I just don't get that.

 

And, the big question. Do Fontenot, Theriot, Johnson, Bradley, Dempster, Marmol, Lilly, and Harden all have huge years again?? All of them outperformed expectations.

 

88 wins could win the Central this year.

[Ennder]

I don't think they are really any better than last year and they are riskier than last year. I do think the central in general is weaker so the Cubs will probably be around 90 wins barring major injuries which of course could easily happen with that roster.

[chansen]

I really don't think they have improved.

 

Losing DeRosa and picking up Miles? I think DeRosa was huge for them last year

 

Losing Kerry Wood

 

Bullpen may have gotten a little worse. Gregg is a good pickup but I can't emphasize the importance of Wood as the closer.

 

Will reed Johnson be the 2008 Johnson or the 2007 form? (.236 in 2007 due to injury)

[Patrick425]

I tend to agree with you. Not becaue I'm a huge Brewer fan and I hate the Cubs (I actually don't hate the Cubs), but because I look at it the same way you do. Yesterday on XM, Rob Dibble stated he sees the cubs winning 95-100 games and that no one else in the Central will be close to them. I don't see that and I don't see the Cubs being that much better. The biggest thing for them will be having Harden the entire year, if he can stay healthy. I know that his innings will be limited. I think Lilly is a bit over rated and I doubt Dempster will put up numbers similar to last year.

[alorrigan]

If I had to guess, this is based off of no statistical evidence, the top of division got worse and the bottom got better. I don't see the Pirates winning but I think the rest of the division has a shot. It should be a pretty interesting year.

[chansen]

Yeah, but then I sit back and think, have the Brewers improved?

 

Dave Bush- I am really excited about him this season. Projections on him are quite good. around 121k/44bb and an era of around 4.20

 

Gallardo- Should be a decent #1. Projections are for around 3.50 era

 

Suppan- Can't be much worse than last year. Projections are for around 90k/60bb with an era of around 4.90

 

McClung- Projections don't have him starting too many games. 70k/42bb with era of 4.10

 

Parra- Excited about this season as well. Projected to do very well. 120k/59bb with era of 4.10 and starting 25 games.

[Ennder]

On paper the Brewers definitely have not improved. They still could end up improving based on breakouts of young players etc, but that is a hard thing to depend on. I mean if Braun improves even more, Fielder hits 50 HR again, Weeks gets his OBP up to .370 and Hart looks like his first half from last year all year, this is a really good offense. If Gallardo repeats what he has done so far all year and Parra pitches the way he did the middle of last year all year we have an above average rotation.

 

Most likely all of that won't happen, it will take a perfect storm for this team to take the division. Same thing can be said about the Reds who also have a very young team.

[Patrick425]

Suppan- Can't be much worse than last year. Projections are for around 90k/60bb with an era of around 4.90

If you look at Suppans numbers the previous 4 years with Boston and StL, they were not that bad. His whip was always on the high side and maybe that should have been a warning, but his ERA was respectable. He's giving up way more hits than he use to. Was old Busch Stadium that much of a pitchers park? It appears that Suppan's home stats are actually better than his away stats.

 

If he could return to his StL form, it would be helpful for the Brewers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

After the series of moves the Cubs have made over the past two months, and now that there's basically zero chance a Peavy trade happens after acquiring Heilman, the Cubs have definitely gotten worse - they still have the talent to own the division, but they have no depth anymore, which was a huge plus for their team last season. I think if healthy they're still 5+ games better than anyone else in the NL Central, but if a few things go wrong it wouldn't be a stretch to see them struggle.

 

If the Cubs get Harden's typical injury-riddled season, regression from Dempster after a career year, issues with Big Z starting to break down, and nagging ailments to their aging stars (soriano, ramirez, lee, bradley) that force a much weaker bench to play too often, things could get difficult.

[Fatter than Joey]

If he could return to his StL form, it would be helpful for the Brewers.

 

In a large part I think his STL success was due to their better defense.

[Patrick425]

If he could return to his StL form, it would be helpful for the Brewers.

 

In a large part I think his STL success was due to their better defense.

 

True. I also remember people bringing this up when he was first signed by the Brewers.

[CheezWizHed]

In a large part I think his STL success was due to their better defense.

Yeah, but he still got worse from 2007 to 2008, when our defense got much better.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

A Zambrano and Harden injury is pretty likely and Soriano is known to miss a few games here and there. There's no way Theriot plays as well as he did in 2008. Given all of those things, the Cubs are still a step above the rest of the NL Central, but that's why they play the games, I guess.

[crewcrazy]

They're also a Milton Bradley injury away from having some combination of Soriano, Reed Johnson, Joey Gathright, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield. If Soriano and Bradley get injured at the same time, things get really ugly for them.

 

I'm not a huge fan on counting guys from division rivals getting hurt, though, so I'm not going to mark them down that much. They've got some pitching depth right now and their bullpen looks pretty decent, and when everyone's healthy they have one killer lineup. They'll be tough to be most of the season...they just have to avoid all getting bit by the injury bug at once.

[strawbossisevil]

I'll post this again, since it was hidden inside the Peavy trade thread. Here is why I think we can expect the Cubs to take a step backwards this year.

 

 

Let's compare who the Cubs have in '09, vs who they had in '08.

 

2008 - C Giovani Soto 2009 - Giovani Soto - His BABIP was .337 last season. Thus many of the predictions have him regressing slightly or holding steady. I mark this as a push for the Cubs in ´09.

 

2008 - 1B Derrek Lee 2009 - 1B Derrek Lee - Someone already mentioned that Lee was effected by luck in 2008. Unfortunately, they were wrong on what kind of luck. Lee also put up a higher than expected BABIP, post a BABIP of .333. He has maintained a pretty high BABIP throughout his career, but this was higher than average for him. He's also seen a drop in his BB% over the past few seasons, and since his wrist injury has seen his SLG% struggle to return to former levels. I think an OPS in the low .800s is probably all that can be expected from him at this point, which is what he put up last year even with the somewhat lucky BABIP numbers. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs in '09.

 

2008 - 2B DeRosa/Fontenot 2009 - 2B Miles/Fontenot - Someone has already mentioned that Fontenot had a BABIP of .355. He will not repeat that. Bill James, Chone, and Marcel all have him in the low .800s for OPS or in the high .700s. That is a .100 drop or more from last season. DeRosa put up an OPS in the mid .800s last season. All of the projections for Miles have him in the .600s or very low .700s. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - SS Ryan Theriot 2009 - SS Ryan Theriot - 2008 Ryan Theriot had a BABIP of nearly .350 last season. Plus, he put up an OBP of .380+ while only hitting one HR. In 2007 Ryan put up a more typical BABIP of around .300 and was at .266 and .326. It is doubtful that Theriot will repeat a BABIP of nearly .350, so the numbers from 2007 are probably more likely what we'll see him put up this coming season. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - 3B Aramis Ramirez 2009 - 3B Aramis Ramirez - AmRam had a career high in BB% by more than 3% points over any season he had ever had. His slugging declined last season to be the lowest its been in 5 years. That said, his BABIP was about where it should be, but was still better than his career mark. All of the projections expect him to not have quite the walk rate he had last season (although still better than anything he had posted before this past season), while maintaining his current SLG. So we may see a 10 point drop in OPS or so from last season. Not enough to call it a downgrade. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - LF Alfonso Soriano 2009 - LF Alfonso Soriano - Soriano also walked a bit more in '08 than he normally had in his career. His BABIP was pretty much expected, slightly over .300. So I'd expect to see Alfonso Soriano put up similar numbers next year. Perhaps with an OBP in the .330s rather than the .340s. I think it is interesting too that all the projections have him projected to be worse than last year, they must be factoring for age, which is possible as Soriano turned 33 a few days ago. But I will mark this as a push for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - CF Johnson/Edmonds 2009 - Fukudome/Johnson - Johnson's BABIP was .367 last year. He's not going to repeat that. Edmonds put up an OPS over .900. Fukudome and Johnson are both likely to put up OPS in the low to mid .700s. Plus I would claim that going from Edmonds to Fukudome in CF is a huge drop off defensively. I will mark this as a significant downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - RF Fukudome/DeRosa 2009 - Bradley/Fukudome - Bradley put up a BABIP of .396 last season. He will likely be a slight improvement over the numbers DeRosa put up in RF last season. Fukudome is likely a wash. So, I will mark this as a slight upgrade for the Cubs for ´09.

 

2008 - SP Zambrano 2009 - SP Zambrano - Zambrano has had his K rates steadily decline for two seasons now. This last season was his lowest K rate since 2001 (where he only pitched in 7 innings). The big question mark here is will that continue its decline? Also his FIP has been over 4 for the past three seasons, one has to wonder with the defensive downgrade in the OF whether his numbers will begin to head in that direction. I think the best the Cubs can hope for with Zambrano is a push from last season.

 

2008 - SP Dempster 2009 - SP Dempster - Dempster posted a sub 3 ERA last season. He was helped by having a strand rate of over 76%. The projections of Dempster are all over the board, but all agree that the best the Cubs should expect from him is a 3.60 ERA, with an ERA in the low 4s even being possible. This doesn´t even consider the fact that he went 200 innings last season after converting from the pen. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for '09.

 

2008 - SP Lilly 2009 - SP Lilly - Lilly also stranded 76% of runners last season and had a FIP in the mid 4s. Most projections have him repeating last season. I don´t see how he could do signifcantly better, I mark this as a push for the Cubs for ´09.

 

2008 - SP Harden, Marshall, and Others 2009 - Harden & Others - Harden has a tear in his shoulder. I don´t think the Cubs can expect him to pitch more than he did last season. His career seems to indicate that is about all they can expect from him this year. That spells two problems for the Cubs 1) Harden is good, but he is not going to post a sub 2 ERA again. Most projections have him with an ERA around 3. I think that is fair. As for the "others". With Marshall now in the ´09 starting rotation, the depth is not there. This will be a rather large downgrade for the Cubs. So I mark this as a downgrade for the Cubs for ´09.

 

2008 - SP Marquis 2009 - SP Marshall - Marshall only pitched 96 innings last season, while only barely cracking 130 the previous year. He is a solid pitcher. But frankly, if he pitches the whole season, I don´t expect his numbers to be much better than Marquis 4.53. Last year Marshall benefited from a left on percentage of nearly 80%. So I mark this as a push for the Cubs for ´09.

 

Added on top of all of this, I should mention that the SP depth of the Cubs is a significant downgrade in comparison to last season. If they ever have more than one pitcher go down at once (which could happen with Harden being likely to spend lots of time on the DL, Zambrano having DL problems recently, and Marshall trying to pitch a full season when he hasn´t pitched over 150 in one season in his career.)

 

I´ll be quick about the bullpen. Since this has gone on more than enough.

Having Marmol in the closer spot rather than the setup spot is a downgrade for Chicago.

Gragg (sp?) will not put up Wood type numbers, and will be a downgrade for Chicago.

Vizcaino should be better than Howry was last year, so that is an upgrade.

The rest of the bullpen is a push in my mind.

 

In total I count - 7 downgrades from last season.

2 upgrades from last season.

and 8 pushes from last season.

 

I do not see this team as being as good as it was last year, it could be significantly worse, especially at middle infield and outfield. Last year they received some amazing contributions in those areas that they are unlikely to receive in '09. I´m not saying the Cubs will be horrible, but I think they have regressed some where if the Brewers or another team in the Central has a couple of guys perform better than last season, the Cubs could be caught.

[owbc]

I'm not sure if the Cubs have improved, but I can't come up with an argument for why they are any worse either. The only way that is possible is if you assume injuries, which occur every year. Even if Harden only pitches 1/2 the time, that's still more than they had him for in 2008. Zambrano pitched 25 innings under his career average in 2008. Dempster was great, but he has a solid track record as a reliable starter. Theriot had great numbers, but his age suggests that he should have continued success. DeRosa and Wood are important subtractions...but I think the result is inconclusive. They should be about the same as last year and will have spending money with the new ownership to make a deadline trade.

 

Furthermore, the Brewers have definitely not improved and there certainly hasn't been big news from anyone below them. Thus, I see the Cubs around 95 wins with the Brewers/Astros/Cardinals somewhere in the 80-85 range. Should be a fun wildcard race again and I expect that we will still be in the race in September.

[lukevan]

Nice post strawboss, thanks. I really think the Brewers' fans panic from early this offseason is fading even though the team has added basically nothing. In my mind, the problem is we have one-half fewer ace pitchers for this upcoming season and we won a lot of one run games last season. We are back to the 2006-2007 offseason of banking on improvement of our younger players (Parra, Gallardo, Prince, Braun, Weeks, Hart, Hardy) after a season of overall digression from them. If the Cubs lose of one of their pitchers for a significant amount of time I believe they can be caught this season.

 

If Gallardo and Parra can throw 380 innings this year and we can make a deadline deal or find a diamond-in-the-rough before spring training or Capuano is able to make a significant contribution this season, I believe we have a good chance.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not a huge fan on counting guys from division rivals getting hurt, though, so I'm not going to mark them down that much.

 

Me neither, crewcrazy, but it just seems the Cubs have put themselves in a position for some relatively serious injury problems. I really can't wrap my head around why Hendry has made the moves he has so far.

[Ennder]

Furthermore, the Brewers have definitely not improved and there certainly hasn't been big news from anyone below them. Thus, I see the Cubs around 95 wins with the Brewers/Astros/Cardinals somewhere in the 80-85 range. Should be a fun wildcard race again and I expect that we will still be in the race in September.

 

This confuses me. The Brewers have not improved but I still think they are over an 81 win team, The cardinals and Astros are worse than last year most likely, if any team is in the race with the Cubs and the Brewers it is the Reds which you don't mention at all. The Reds actually have quality young talent while the astros are just an old team getting older and the cardinals young talent is mostly a couple years away still.

[ILuvDaBush]

Cards can never be counted out, if only for Pujols. The Pirates are finally going in the right direction, which puts them on track to contend in about three years. The 'Stros, as previously mentioned, are old, and if last season is any indication, we can expect their power-hitting shortstop to age three years again this year.

The Reds...scare me. More than the Cubs. I hate to use cross-sport comparisons, but it reminds me of the Packers v. Vikings. Coco...Sharper. It may be more emotional when we play the Cubs, but the team whose talent level scares me the most is the Reds. If Harang shows that he's past his injury and Volquez proves last year was no fluke, then I don't know of any other rotation in our division I would rather have (the Cubs rotation is a house of cards). And imagine if THIS is the year Homer finally becomes enamored with being a pitcher. And I have long been one of Cueto's biggest fans.

Have the Cubs improved? On paper. Did they have to because last year, they played absurdly over their heads? Of course! Thus, I must ask, which is the biggest reason to expect trouble from the Cubs this year?

A) Counting on THAT pitching staff.

-Harden. "There's a James on the phone. He says he's punched your card enough times, you're entitled to a free SLAP surgery."

-Zambrano. "Lou says Big Z not supposed to go on computer."

-Dumpster. "A Rose by Any Other Name..." But Canadian Karma is quite the Lassie.

-Lilly. "The Brewers have ONE lefty hitter, as well as a Ryan Braun and a Bill Hall."

-Heilman. "But I don't want to be a relief pitcher. I'm taking my ball and going home, back to sweet home, Chicago!"

B) Counting on The Riot and Alphonso to set the table is like asking out the head pom-pom in high school, and then expecting her to pay. You know you're going to pay dearly with that type of expectation.

C) Lou-Milton-Big Z-Soriano-and 2 Canadian Pitchers for comic relief. Their clubhouse needs to have its own reality show. You could pick random hosts from the Cubby Bear. America needs this in these sad times.

D) No Depth. No Farm. And there only semblance of luck....is their fifth starter spot, whether it be Heilman or Samardzija, either way, they have Touchdown Jesus's unlisted digits.

D)

[Thurston Fluff]

They should be about the same as last year and will have spending money with the new ownership to make a deadline trade.

 

Everyone seems to be saying they have less depth. Money doesn't help if you don't have the players to trade.

They are going to be good but I think it will be a lot closer race than most people project.

[strawbossisevil]

I think its telling that pretty much every Cub was either average with their BABIP or well above average. They didn't have a single person have a below average year in the luck department, and they had over half of their lineup with BABIP well above long term sustainable levels.

 

When you add to that the fact that their rotation is likely to take a step back, I agree, I think it COULD be close if our team can stay relatively healthy. I still think the Cubs are the more talented ball club, but I thought the Tigers were going to run away with the AL Central last season too. And we all know what happened there.

[Ennder]

but I thought the Tigers were going to run away with the AL Central last season too. And we all know what happened there.

 

The AL central of last year is a great example of how anything can happen. I thought the Indians would run away with things and they got decimated by injuries. I thought the Twins would be sub .500 but they had the most luck with RISP in all of baseball and almost won it. I thought the White Sox would be sub .500 but they had a bunch of break out guys produce way more than expected. I thought the Tigers would be in the running for the wild card because of the offense(never liked their pitching) but the pitching cost them more than expected.

 

Anything can happen.

[JohnBriggs12]

You can't judge because unlike Melvin who's resting on his glorious accomplishment of bringing in Trever Hoffman and picking up a $10 million option on Cameron, Hendry isn't done yet.

 

He's rumored to be close to bringing in Juan Uribe to address their IF depth issue.

 

They have 2 key guys as far as I'm concerned. Marmol and Bradley. If Bradley plays 125 games and Marmol is healthy, there's no team in this division that's within a dozen games of the Cubs. Even if a starter or two go down, they will have more than enough offense with a healthy Bradley to bludgeon opponents.

 

strawbossevil keeps bringing up that misleading and sometimes useless BABIP stat. The reason the Cub hitters are so "lucky" is because they are adept for using the entire field and putting good wood on the ball. It's called being good hitters and has little to do with luck. Good hitters are always going to exceed average BABIP because they are hard to defense.

[Ennder]

misleading and sometimes useless BABIP stat. The reason the Cub hitters are so "lucky" is because they are adept for using the entire field and putting good wood on the ball

 

Of course if you know how to use it, it isn't useless. As strawbossevil pointed out their hitters all beat their own baseline BABIP so unless almost every hitter on the team suddenly got adept at using the entire field this is wrong.