Bobby Abreu

[Invader3K]

Well, the pessimist in me says Abreu probably doesn't want to come here, and the Brewers probably don't even have $4 million to spend on another player at this point. If they did, we probably wouldn't be looking at our rotation as presently constituted.

[paul253]

I mentioned this awhile ago with Peavy, but I feel the same about Abreu. If money is the only reason they aren't going after him, I will lose a lot of respect for Attanasio. If you can get Bobby Abreu for that little on a one year deal, you have to go for it. It was so painful watching the offense in September and throughout the playoffs and it really hasnt been touched at all. Abreu's strenghts (OBP, left handed hitter, contact) are the Brewer's weaknesses, so he's an ideal fit. Like Peavy, if he doesnt want to come, he doesnt want to come, but you gotta ask.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think Abreu will be all that much of an upgrade over Brad Nelson, if you're talking about making Abreu the #4 OF & assumedly getting him tons of PH PAs v. RHP. Abreu can't handle CF, and can't really even handle the corner OF spots anymore. He'd be a bad pickup for the Brewers at $4M or $5M imho. Think Fielder... except with far less power -- and his defense likely negates even more of his offense than Prince's at 1B, since RF is a more impactful defensive spot than 1B.

[endaround]

Dunn makes some sense because his bat is good. Abreu's isn't that good anymore. His defense is worse.

 

Abreu's CHONE projection: .273/.379/.408

 

Hart's CHONE projection: .278/.335/.479

 

Now consider Abreu was 25 runs below average on RF while Hart was 5 above

[Invader3K]

I actually think Dunn would make more sense than Abreu. I'd give done a four year deal if the amount per year wasn't unreasonable. Between Dunn, Fielder, and Braun, you'd have the potential for some 120 home run seasons, just from those three guys. The downside of course is that you'd basically have to trade either Cameron or Hart.

[Ennder]

Dunn makes some sense because his bat is good. Abreu's isn't that good anymore. His defense is worse.

 

Abreu's CHONE projection: .273/.379/.408

 

Hart's CHONE projection: .278/.335/.479

 

Now consider Abreu was 25 runs below average on RF while Hart was 5 above

But that was by far the worst year of Abreu's career and is most likely an outlier,he is probably closer to 10-15 runs below average.

[JohnBriggs12]

Dunn makes some sense because his bat is good. Abreu's isn't that good anymore. His defense is worse.

 

Abreu's CHONE projection: .273/.379/.408

 

Hart's CHONE projection: .278/.335/.479

 

Now consider Abreu was 25 runs below average on RF while Hart was 5 above

I really question that projection on Abreu. Abreu's worst full seasons by category: BA: .283 OBP: .369 SLG: .445. How can you assume he's suddenly going to start regressing dramatically especially if you're not assuming Cameron (who's a year older) will? And how exactly does one rate a guy who scored 223 runs and drove in 201 over the past two season to be below Hart?

 

Abreu has driven in 100 runs for 7 straight years and 8 of the last 9 and is a career .300 hitter. If he does that 3 or 4 more years, he has a case for the HOF.

 

Baseball-reference BtRuns in 2008: Hart -5.2. Abreu +17.7. Abreu has never been below +14.

 

Also other than his problem with the wall, could someone please quantify his fielding deficiencies? He's had double digit OF assists 7 times. Dunn's done it twice but his RF experience is 82 games.

[strawbossisevil]

I thought you would know better than to judge a guy by his RBIs and Runs Scored. As has been pointed out over and over on this forum, those are team stats. And it is no surprise that he would do well on those, considering he played for the Yankees.

 

Would I take Abreu on a $3 million dollar salary? Absolutely. The big question is though, do the Brewers have that money available to spend on him. That remains to be seen.

[paul253]

Does anyone have a link to 2009 salaries so far? All I could find was 2008. The way I figured, the Brewers shed about $41 million from player lost last season, plus whatever they paid Sabathia (Sheets, Turnbow, Counsell, Capuano, Torres, Mota, Kapler, Gagne, whoever else I'm forgetting). I'm trying to see how much of that and/or more they've added so far in the signings of Hoffman, Weeks, Fielder, Lamb, etc, plus raises to contracts in guys like Cameron, Hall, Suppan, and Kendall.

 

I also wonder about those projections for Abreu. As late as 2006 his OBP was .427 (in Philly, 419 in NY). Even his down year last season at .371 is a significantly higher number than the Brewers team average and would have ranked right behind Fielder. It is not even comparable with Hart's .300 OBP. His numbers seemed to slide a bit when he went to the AL, so perhaps rejoining an NL team would push those numbers back up. He also had 22 steals last season, which would have ranked 2nd last season in Milwaukee. Plus, while he "only" had 22 HR's, HR's arent exactly a problem in Milwaukee but that still would have ranked 5th on the team. As far as his defense, yeah it is worse. But will he cost as many runs as he will add? I doubt it.

I thought you would know better than to judge a guy by his RBIs and Runs Scored. As has been pointed out over and over on this forum, those are team stats. And it is no surprise that he would do well on those, considering he played for the Yankees.

 

Thats true, but you still have to get on base in order to score runs. Plus its not like the Yankess offense was all that much better than Milwaukee's. Milwaukee had more HR's, more walks, more doubles, more triples, and a higher slugging %. Granted the Yankees had a much higher batting average and more runs scored (789 v 750) and obviously a better OBP (factor in the pitchers hitting for Milwaukee also). I wouldnt use the Yankees v Milwaukee offense to say Abreu's numbers would drop off if he goes to Milwaukee.

[strawbossisevil]

Right, my point was let's talk about the statistics that matter. OBP and OPS matter and show how capable an individual player is in regard to stats that are in his control. RBIs and runs scored however, are not, as they are team dependent.

 

That was my only point, let's use the best stats if we are going to make comparisons, and not team based stats. I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with John on Abreu's value to our team. I was disagreeing with how he was going about it statistically.

[paul253]

Gotcha...I misunderstood. I think Abreu would be a huge upgrade to this offense, even as a platoon player. If you can get him for a one year deal under $5 million, I dont see how you can't do it. I like Corey Hart as much as the next guy, but if we can do better, we owe it to ourselves to do it. If it doesn't work out, you can always trade Abreu at the deadline or just let him go at the end of the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Abreu would be a huge upgrade to this offense, even as a platoon player. If you can get him for a one year deal under $5 million, I dont see how you can't do it.

 

Because his defense is tragically bad, and cancels out much or most of what he'd bring in terms of offense. Hart & Abreu are probably about a wash offensively anyway, and then when you add in defense it's not even close.

[paul253]

Hart & Abreu are probably about a wash offensively anyway, and then when you add in defense it's not even close.

How can you say they are a wash offensively? Last season in probably a down season Abreu had a higher average, higher OBP, higher slugging, more RBI, almost 3x as many walks, as many HR's, and only 1 fewer SB. Abreu was either better than or equal to Hart in every offensive category. Granted Hart had a disasterous second half, but Abreu's careers numbers are better than Harts, and who is to say Hart will put up all star type numbers again?

[And That]

Does anyone have a link to 2009 salaries so far?

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/68d25d4450915d0893d2822bc7344223cfeb93b.jpg

[Kricket755]

It seems like Abreu will likely settle for around 5 mil, maybe somewhere between 3 and 4mil. Without a trade of Corey Hart, I would think he would take less money to play somewhere else with more solid AB's available. If he gets 250 AB's in Milwaukee at 4.5 million, he would most likely rather have 500 AB's somewhere else at 3.5 million because next off-season, that amount could easily be made up. I am not saying he would only get 250 AB's here, but playing time and building next years value seems almost as important as his 09 base salary at this point.

[bobskube]

The Brewers are not interested in Bobby A. or Dunn at all right now especially after Looper signing. Doug was definitely interested in Dunn and kinda has been over the last couple of years. Remember, he almost got him a couple seasons ago. However, once Cameron deal fell through and there were no good deals for Hart out there, Dunn had no spot on this team.

[MNBrew]

Hart & Abreu are probably about a wash offensively anyway, and then when you add in defense it's not even close.

How can you say they are a wash offensively? Last season in probably a down season Abreu had a higher average, higher OBP, higher slugging, more RBI, almost 3x as many walks, as many HR's, and only 1 fewer SB. Abreu was either better than or equal to Hart in every offensive category. Granted Hart had a disasterous second half, but Abreu's careers numbers are better than Harts, and who is to say Hart will put up all star type numbers again?

I keep tending to agree with Paul. You can trump up certain "deep" or individual vs. team stats all you want. But since when is a 100-RBI, 20+ SB All-Star OF suddently only worthy of platoon or 4th OF status? (Apply the same standard to Cameron and the logic really doesn't fly.) Perhaps RBIs aren't the ideal stat. But they're not meaningless, either. Abreu knocked a lot of guys in. The Brewers had boatloads of guys on base & usually couldn't hit 'em in for squat.

 

Abreu is strong in some of the glaring areas where the Brewers need to improve. About the only one he's not is defense. But he's no Luis Gonzalez (paper arm) or Manny Ramirez (butcher with the glove who used to have one of the most feared OF arms in the AL), either.

 

However unlikely, I'd still love to see the Brewers trade Cameron to NY for Cabrera & something, then sign Abreu. Money's a wash if not a slight improvement for the Crew at Abreu's rumored figure these days, and they get OF depth and possibly an additional pitcher in return. Hart moves to CF. Hart's no Willie Mays. But he's nothing near Izzy Alcantara, either. He's a solid athlete with good speed. It wouldn't be the end of the world OR the Brewers' playoff chances if Hart moved to CF in such a deal. To me it makes so much sense that it'll certainly never happen.

 

A move like that at worst makes the Brewers a different team. It may well also make them a better offensive team by how they'd improve on their '08 weaknesses (namely lefty-right, Ks, BA, & OBP).

[ILuvDaBush]

Weren't there also grumblings that he was a clubhouse cancer in Philly? It would seem to hold true considering they paid $10M for Ibanez when they could have easily signed Abreu (and Burrell would have inherited 10-5 rights, so he was no good)? And all this thought is all for naught as he is not going to sign on for NO money with a team where he isn't guaranteed to start on. It wouldn't make sense to do so if his objective was to get paid next offseason.

[TooLiveBrew]

How can you say they are a wash offensively?

 

Because Abreu is projected to SLG around .400 in 2009. The OBP doesn't stick around when the SLG falls. Do you really find a .360 OBP/.415 SLG (<--my rough guesstimate for Abreu) preferable to .340 OBP/.480 SLG (<--appx. projection for Hart) when you know for a fact that the prior line brings disastrous defense, and the latter line brings average to above-average D? Honestly, being overall equal value to Abreu has to be the worst-case scenario for Hart in '09.

 

 

Abreu is strong in some of the glaring areas where the Brewers need to improve. About the only one he's not is defense. But he's no Luis Gonzalez (paper arm) or Manny Ramirez (butcher with the glove who used to have one of the most feared OF arms in the AL), either.

 

Abreu is about as bad a defensive OF as you can find in MLB. In addition, he can only handle corner OF, where you need a big bat just to hang, even without poor defense dragging you down. Imo Abreu will do well to just not cost his team runs next season when offense & defense are considered. I don't think it can be stressed enough that Abreu completely sucks in the field.

 

 

However unlikely, I'd still love to see the Brewers trade Cameron to NY for Cabrera & something, then sign Abreu.

 

That's a way to make the team worse. Abreu has no position unless you sell about as low as possible on Hart (& even then I don't think Abreu should be trusted in RF, & likely won't have the bat for LF), and Cabrera is not a good player. Imho Cabrera's the type of guy a rebuilding team should take a flyer on, but not a team that's re-loading to be competitive again this season and/or next like the Crew.

[MNBrew]

However unlikely, I'd still love to see the Brewers trade Cameron to NY for Cabrera & something, then sign Abreu.

 

>That's a way to make the team worse.

 

Defensively? Sure. Offensively? Not necessarily at all. It's still subjective viewpoints and projections, which though frequently correct are not automatically right.

Imho Cabrera's the type of guy a rebuilding team should take a flyer on, but not a team that's re-loading to be competitive again this season and/or next like the Crew.

 

Cabrera's the sort of guy a rebuilding team vests their hopes in. He's the sort of guy a contending team brings in as a reserve, which is what I'm proposing.

 

And it's all moot anyway since Abreu supposedly has just about signed with the Angels today (LINK).

[MNBrew]

How can you say they are a wash offensively?

 

Because Abreu is projected to SLG around .400 in 2009....(etc.)

As statistically grounded as projections are, now matter how you slice it, it's still conjecture. And I simply choose to see it differently.

[PeaveyFury]

Abreu to Angels, closing this thread.