Deal Capuano to make room for Gallardo

[JohnBriggs12]

Team Canada,

 

Sure Villy was valuable out of the pen. But he would have been much more valuable starting instead of Capuano. Heck, at the end of 06, Villanueva was the 2nd most effective starter they had. There was no reason to take away his spot even with the signing of Suppan.

 

As for who would have done Villy's bullpen job? That could have been addressed in the deal or via free agency. But even before any plans were made to put Villanueva in the pen, Melvin was saying he thought he had enough in the pen. Not only was he wrong about that, he was wrong in thinking he had solid rotation too.

 

As for what happened to Capuano. My theory is that a lot of his prior success was do to his somewhat deceptive motion that to the batter's eye made his 87 mph fastball look faster. As he's been around now for quite a while, hitters have grown accustomed and are now very comfortable up there.

 

Of course last night he could not have put the ball on a tee in a better spot for Bonds. Bonds will be able to hit that pitch at 53 too.

[Team Canada]

Melvin was saying he thought he had enough in the pen. Not only was he wrong about that, he was wrong in thinking he had solid rotation too.

 

Yeah, no matter how you slice it, pitching has collapsed. Perhaps Villy as a starter would have been a better move, but probably not to a dramatically different result.

[MoneyballMan]

I'm not about to defend Cappy and the terrible season he has had, but there weren't many who would have predicted it. Even if someone suggested trading him prior to this season, it was because of his supposed high trade value (and thus the expectation for a solid #2/3 LHSP). So, given that we were expecting to contend this year, DM really would have had to been blown away to trade a solid, #2/3 LHSP making $4m/year. I think we all need to remember that hindsight is 20/20. It's very unfortunate that with his performance this season he's stuck in no-man's land (as far as the Brewers are concerned).

 

- Trade value pretty low

- Arbitration-eligible and probably in line for $4m/year again (give or take a little)

 

If we don't believe he can turn it around and be a productive starter, $4m/year is pretty high for a team like the Brewers for a mop-up long-relief pitcher. But it would be equally difficult to non-tender him as well given his past performance, relative youth and the fact he throws with his left arm. Very difficult position heading into the offseason unless he really picks things up.

[splitterpfj]

I agree, MBM, the Brewers are in a rotten spot with Cappy right now. If they deal him, his value is way down, if they keep him and he doesn't produce, the criticism will be intense. The Brewers may be caught trying to deal a surplus of under-producing arms for what they need...which happens to be producing arms.

 

That's bad math.

[kgbaseball]

I'm a huge fan of keeping Capuano. He's better than this. Let's take a look at a couple stats of his.

 

- His strikeouts/9 are way up this year (8.03/9), and that's by far his best ratio since 2004, in limited action.

- He's getting 1.24 groundballs to every fly ball, his highest total since 03 in limited action with the DBacks. This is a good/bad thing. Good because you always would prefer a groundball to a fly ball, but bad because Milwaukee's infield defense is so bad. I attribute this number to why he really hasn't been as bad as his ERA suggests. Make braun and Fielder average defenders, he has a lower ERA for sure.

- He's allowing over 10 hits per 9 innings, a career high. Capuano's always going to give up hits because he doesn't have overwhelming stuff. He's averaged around 9 hits per 9 in his career, so this is telling me either a) he's reached his peak (not likely; he's only 29), or b) the defense is bad behind him. I'll go with the latter.

- He's not allowing as many homeruns this year (18) as he has in the past. That's a good thing.

- He's already walked more this year (48) than he did all of last year (47). The combo of him walking too many batters plus giving up more than 10 hits per 9 is troubling. Maybe he's trying too hard this season to make the perfect pitch because he knows the defense behind him might not make the play.

 

I like Capuano a lot and think he's a fine 3 or 4 starter for this team next year. And at the price they'll be paying him, he's worth hanging on to. Vargas, on the other hand...

[dadofandrew]

Obviously, the Crew won't have 8 starters battling for rotation spots next year, so 1 or 2 will be dealt. I agree Capuano is better than his numbers, but his walks trouble me the most. As a LH, he'll retain much of his value despite his struggles, I've compared him to Davis before and I will again...both are solid lefty SP's who will be in someone's rotation next year.

 

EDIT: Changed week to year, typo.

[JohnBriggs12]

How on earth could they sell bringing Capuano back to a fanbase that knows that his failure was number one reason that the 25 year post season drought continues? (Yes I know it wasn't the only reason but had Capuano done even close to expectations, the team plays postseason baseball).

 

Yes, I know they did that with Turnbow last offseason, but that season pales in comparison to this one as far as fan disappointment. Do they honestly think fans who watched this guy struggle since early May are going to buy tickets believing somehow he's going to turn it around?

 

If they continue to tank, selling tickets this winter will require some work. Bringing back the culprits of the 07 demise (Yost, Capuano, Vargas etc.) will not be a good idea.

 

Use the $4 million and get another decent reliever. Capuano is now a reclamation project. Now I'm not against the Brewers going out and getting a reclamation project to compete for a rotation spot, just let it be one we haven't seen stinking up Miller Park in a Brewer uniform already.

[dadofandrew]

I certainly do not see a non-tender of Cappy, 10-15 teams would be interested in him at $4M. I don't think Doug cares at all about the fans being worried, he'll make moves based solely on baseball sense. As I said, Chris' numbers are not far from the other SP's, other than his winless streak, that's all GM's care about. Fans get emotional and point to those things, but in reality, that's as much bad luck and run support as anything else. His secondary numbers are better than some others.

 

Both Vargas and Capuano have pitched at a level that still keeps them in most any rotation in MLB...right now, however, the Brewers have 5 guys pitching at that level, of a #4/5 starter. That's the true problem.

[JohnBriggs12]

"His secondary numbers are better than some others"

 

He's in the bottom quarter of OPS against, WHIP, and ERA. That he's micoscopically better than a handful of other equally as bad pitchers is a reason to commit $4 million? Yes that's not a ton of money in today's game but it would make it tough for the Brewers to eat if he started 08 like he's pitched since July of 06.

 

"I don't think Doug cares at all about fans"

 

He better. They pay his salary and if they stop showing up, Attanasio is not going to fire himself.

 

I doubt 10-15 teams would have interest in him at $4 million, especially if they had to give up something to get him.

 

The Brewers just cannot afford to alienate fans by repackaging the same faces of failure year in and year out. That was one huge reason I hated the Counsell signing. To me Counsell represented to a great degree the painful collapse in 04.

[JJHardy7]

Haven't the Brewers been repackaging the same faces for awhile (minus of course the minor league talent that has been called up)?

 

Fans will come if the Brewers are winners. I think the main point should be will Cappy help the Brewers win in '08 and based on his results this year the answer would be now. It's not about who is on the team, but it is about putting a winning team on the field. If they keep him, and he turns it around I'm sure fans will show up. Do you think they would not come to a winning team's game because of Cappy?

[rluzinski]

To me Counsell represented to a great degree the painful collapse in 04.

 

And Melvin resigned him anyway, which should tell you how much he worries about that kind of stuff.

[billyhallfan]

And Melvin resigned him anyway, which should tell you how much he worries about that kind of stuff.

 

actually counsell left for two years, and then Melvin signed him for 2007.

 

 

and podsednik killed the brewers in 2004 and he wasn't back for 2005.

[DHonks]

I've been saying since May that Cappy might be dealt. He's a talented, relatively young lefty with a durable, productive track record. I still think it's possible that he gets dealt for someone like Bobby Abreu in a change of location deal.

[MNBrew]

I may have my Brewer goggles on, but I've been thinking/wondering/hoping for a while that Capuano & Jenkins package might give us a shot at Bobby Abreu. The dollars would only be off by a couple million, I think, which could be forgiveable. An interesting thought, nonetheless, DHonks...

 

Jenkins would give the Yankees a bat (or another chip to move in some other deal) and Capuano certainly would give them a younger arm with a mostly-decent track record (the last 3 months excepting). Abreu would give the Crew a higher level of production & speed from a corner OF spot.

 

Then again, it's stretches like he's having now that keep Mench in the mix. And I'm not sure whether to think that's good or bad.

 

I really just hope Capuano puts together a great September. That way, if they're entertaining trade offers for him, a month of redemption in the big picture of his career can make the past 3 months look that much more like a blip, thus increasing his potential trade value.

[sbrylski]

I can't believe how quickly you guys can turn on a player. He was the consensus #2 before the season started. He's obviously struggling right now, but why is this half season more important that his past 2.5?

 

This season, he's getting more groundballs and even striking out more. His K/BB ratio is the 2nd highest in his career. I'm sorry to generalize like this, but wanting to trade Capuano seems like a emotion-based idea a casual fan would like to see. (That's if your main reasoning is "he sucks now", which it kind of sounds like some of you are saying.)

 

We do have an extra starter we can trade, however, and still maintain solid depth. Sure, Capuano is an option to trade, but I'd rather keep our better starters and trade the guy that most likely will get booted from the rotation next season anyway, Claudio Vargas. Any ML pitcher will have value. I would compare Vargas' worth to Rod Lopez's this past offseason. Baltimore was able to net two solid mid-level pitching prospects for him, and he was coming off a 5.90 ERA season.

 

That's what I'd rather do, anyway, rather than sell low on Capuano.

[endaround]

I really don't know where this Abreu love is coming from. Capuano for Abreu would be the biggest steal in Cashman's career. Of course more than likely NY will just let Abreu walk in stead of picking up a $16 million option for an 800 OPS corner OFer.

[princeginterhallhelms04]

Yeah there is no way i would want any part of Abreu in Milwaukee. I would just stay pat with cappy and hope that next year he is fine. This lets hope could just be a bump in the road!

[DHonks]

actually, I'm expecting there's a 0% chance of Vargas returning. Dealing Cappy for another asset is simply to open two rotation spots for our 3 young starters.

[sbrylski]

I wouldn't thin our depth too much...

 

Sheets - Gallardo - Suppan - Capuano - Bush

6. Parra (who might not be ready for a full season of starters work)

7. Villanueva

 

I sure hope our '08 closer isn't already on the roster, and I think we could use another reliever on top of that.

[mannyduke]

I'm not sure that there's that much of a market for Cappy at this point other than someone else that's underperforming on their current team. Rather than do that, I'd rather see what Cappy could do in a Brewer uniform next year.

[dadofandrew]

One of the current 8 starters will be dealt, I would say Bush is unlikely, so that would leave either Cappy or Vargas. Neither will bring a boatload of talent back, but I think they'd prefer keeping the LHP with the higher ceiling.

 

Doug could not care at all about public perception, and Mark A seems to be talking the "long-term" talk as well. I would bet Cappy is back in '08, if I had to decide this second.

 

On a related note, I'd say Sheets is more willing to be traded than Bush. Dave is incredibly team oriented and I have to think he is loved by the organization. Ben only has a year left on his contract as well.

[rluzinski]

actually counsell left for two years, and then Melvin signed him for 2007.

 

I'm quite aware of the fact that Counsell wasn't resigned right away. The point is that he still brought back. Or are you suggesting Melvin has to wait 2 years before he could resign Cappy? Personally, I think Melvin cares little about public perception. If he thinks a player is the best choice, he'll use him.

[endaround]

Vargas will be the Brewers 8th best starting option (Sheets, Gallardo, Bush, Capuano, Parra, Suppan, Villaneuva) and is set to make $5 million next year. I see no way he comes back.