Oliver Perez

[Crewin06]

I wonder why there is no interest in Oliver Perez. I understand that he is a type A free agent but he is the exacty type of high upside young pitcher the Brewers need right now. With all of the extra high picks the Brewers have this year I think it would be wise to use one on Oliver Perez if Perez is interested in accepting an incentive laden deal. I was thinking about this for a while but what about

1 year $7 million deal with a $2 million bonus for a top 10 Cy Young Finish, $2 million bonus for a top 5 Cy Young finish and another $2 million bonus for winning the Cy Young with a couple of mutual option years Year 2 mutual option Brewers Club option at $10 million Oliver Perez at $5 million with a $2 million bonus for a top 10 Cy Young finish, $2 million bonus for a top 5 Cy Young finish and another $2 million bonus for winning the Cy Young Year 2 option becomes guaranteed if Oliver Perez pitches 200 innings in Year 1 of contract. Year 3 if year 2 club option is declined by Brewers can void year 3. Mutual option Brewers club option at $12 million Perez's option $5 million with a $2 million bonus for a top 10 Cy Young Finish, $2 million bonus for a top 5 Cy Young finish and another $2 million bonus for winning the Cy Young. Year 3 becomes guaranteed with 400 total innings pitched in prior 2 years or 220 innings pitched in year 2 of contract.

With his age( turning 27 last August) and his prior performance in some years I think Perez could be the exact type of pitcher the Brewers need if properly motivated. I think the money and performance incentives will keep Perez properly motivated while the option clauses limits the risk potential for the Brewers if Perez doesn't perform.

[chansen]

I liked him in the beginning but have sense said no. He is inconsistent and will cost too much for the Brewers. Plus, I think he re-signs with the Mets.

[GAME05]

give up a first-round pick to sign a guy to a one-year contract?

[Crewin06]

give up a first-round pick to sign a guy to a one-year contract.

The deal would be a 3 year deal if he performs well. If he doesn't the Brewers are not locked into big money. If the Brewers opt out and Perez opts out after the first year it probably means that he did fairly well and the Brewers will get at least type B compensation. The Brewers gave up a second round pick for Suppan 3 years ago. Right now how many people wish the Brewers could rid themselves of Suppan's contract? In this type of deal the Brewers could if Perez doesn't perform up to expectations

 

It just seems that if he meets the criteria (which he could easily do) the contract is definitely worth the money. If Perez doesn't meet the expectations we are not locked into a horrible contract that we can not get out from under like Suppan.

[patrickgpe]

http://www.metsblog.com/2...angers-brewers-and-perez/

 

brewers and rangers are said to be interested, with the mets being the favorite. I have always been a fan of him. Giving up a first round pick though is going to be tough. We'd be completely out of the first round after expecting 3 picks.

[brewerfan82]

I think we can still afford to give up that pick. We're still going to have three picks before the second round and possibly four, depending on where Sheets ends up. Not to mention, two or three picks in the second round. It's not what we were ideally looking at when the offseason began, but that's still a ton of picks. I'm not sure what the drop off in pick success is from our 27th first round pick to our 41st supplemental pick, but I can't imagine we're in a worse situation losing our first round pick than we would have been keeping it and not having any compensation picks. It's not like we're losing a top ten or even a top twenty draft pick.

 

That said, Perez's inconsistency is troublesome, but he still has the tools to be the top-notch pitcher he looked assuredly to be when he first came up with the Pirates. If Doug can get a decent deal for him, I'd love to have him thrown into our rotation: Gallardo, Perez, Bush, Parra, Suppan would give us a very balanced attack and help shore up our depth in the bullpen as well.

 

I'm also not a big fan of the idea of keeping the money now for flexibility later in the season. If we can get an obvious upgrade now, for the full year, I think it's best to take it, rather than giving up money and talent later on for a half year of service. It worked out well last year, but last year we didn't have any obvious holes to spend that money on going into the season (outside of maybe the bullpen, but we had already thrown a bunch of cash at Gagne and Riske). This year, our starting rotation is an obvious weak point if we don't get another established starter in it.

 

I'm still crossing my fingers that Sheets falls back into our laps, but I wouldn't be upset at all to land Perez (at least assuming he's not getting the money he thought he was getting going into the offseason).

[chansen]

Don't believe Perez rumor

By Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel

Jan. 27, 2009 8:51 a.m.

 

I just saw this report that Jon Heyman said on the MLB Network that the Brewers might have interest in free agent lefty Oliver Perez.

 

Don't count on it.

 

When I ran Perez's name by Brewers general manager Doug Melvin recently, he showed virtually no interest for two reasons:

 

1. Melvin doesn't think he's worth the money he is seeking (Perez led the NL in walks last year and can be very erratic).

 

2. Melvin doesn't want to forfeit the first-round draft pick to sign a Class A free agent.

 

So, I think this is mostly a smokescreen provided by Perez's agent, Scott Boras. The Brewers, of course, have "interest" in any pitcher that might help them. But there are varying degrees of interest, from "very slight" to "highly interested."

 

I fully expect Perez to re-sign with the Mets at some point. Boras is probably trying to create a market that isn't there for his client, which is an agent's job.

[Crewin06]

I would much rather sign Perez to an incentive laden deal like I layed out than Sheets.

 

1.) because the Brewers would get 2 picks while giving up 1 pick. Yes the 1 pick is higher but not that much higher.

 

2.) Perez is 3 years younger than Sheets right now

 

3.) Perez is not coming off injuries

[endaround]

The most import thing though is Perez is a below average pitcher that some people think is good.

 

Some CHONE projections:

Sheets 148 innings 3.84 FIP

Oliver Perez 166 innings 4.97 FIP

Odalis Perez 134 innings 4.64 FIP (fewer inning due to fewer starts given he'd be a #5)

 

 

Oliver Perze was bad in 2003, very good in 2004, terrible in 2005 and 2006, average in 2007 and below average last year. And he wants 8 figures per.

[JohnBriggs12]

The most import thing though is Perez is a below average pitcher that some people think is good.

 

Some CHONE projections:

Sheets 148 innings 3.84 FIP

Oliver Perez 166 innings 4.97 FIP

Odalis Perez 134 innings 4.64 FIP (fewer inning due to fewer starts given he'd be a #5)

 

 

Oliver Perze was bad in 2003, very good in 2004, terrible in 2005 and 2006, average in 2007 and below average last year. And he wants 8 figures per.

How was Oliver Perez below average last year? 10-7, 4.22 ERA, .234 BAA, .725 OPSA, 180K??? Those aren't "below average" numbers. At worst, their average.

 

In 2007 he was well above average: 15-10, 3.56 ERA, .696 OPSA, .229BAA, 1.31 WHIP, 174 K's.

 

Clearly his issues are too many walks and the fear he'd return to his 05-06 form at some point. But I'd take his 07-08 numbers any day. I can only hope Manny Parra pitches that well.

 

He's not worth 8 figures in this market but he's certainly a quality arm who's tough to hit with some record of success and he's only a year older than Parra.

[endaround]

Perez's FIP was 4.68 last year. He was 1.3 wins above replacement. That's below average. In 2007 his FIP was 4.35 and he was 2.2 wins above replacement, or just slightly above average. The fact that he played in front of a very good defensive infield doesn't make him a great pitcher.

[Dollarbill13]

I think the Brewers are waiting on Sheets to see if we can get the draft picks from someone else signing him. If no one else will sign him, we'll swoop in and offer him an incentive-laden deal to shore up the rotation for one more year.

[brewmann04]

i believe that you could be right there Dollar Bill

[chansen]

if sheets signs with texas, which is more and more likely, we won't get a very good pick considering Texas is #14 and the top 15 are protected.

[GAME05]

but if we sign him for this year, we can always just offer him arbitration again after the season and get that first-round pick.

[PeaveyFury]

but if we sign him for this year, we can always just offer him arbitration again after the season and get that first-round pick.

 

Assuming that he stays healthy all year and doesn't stink, with the latter being a major concern with Perez.

[chansen]

Ben Sheets will be a Ranger soon. They seem to want him quite a bit.

 

I believe the Mets will end up re-signing Perez.

[Invader3K]

I agree it seems to be a forgone conclusion at this point that he'll be back with the Mets. Just a matter of hammering out the contract details at this point.

[Crewin06]

but if we sign him for this year, we can always just offer him arbitration again after the season and get that first-round pick.

 

Assuming that he stays healthy all year and doesn't stink, with the latter being a major concern with Perez.

And the first one being a major concern for Ben Sheets

 

I guess I just see a young lefty strikeout pitcher that has plenty of room to grow and I wouldn't mind taking a flier on him. If he puts up his career ERA he would be a major asset by moving

McClung to the #6 spot and longman out of the pen, If he puts up last year's stats the Brewers are probably going to the playoffs if the other players hold their own. If he puts up his best season of his career the Brewers get a major steal and a Cy Young candidate.

 

I think it is worth it for a first round pick with the possiblity of gettting picks in the future.

 

I guess I just hear people claiming how much they like Manny Parra and how we should trade a bunch of talent for Jonathan Sanchez and I thought I would bring up Perez who is just a year older and has had much more success at the major league level than either Parra or Sanchez

[MJLiverock]

I kinda agree with your last paragraph Crew. Perez at this point is probably about equal to Parra and is close enough in age to not matter. Perez has been erratic career wise but is at least a ML pitcher. First round draft picks are not guaranteed superstars and I think that assumption is made an awful lot when valuing draft picks. For every Braun or Sheets there are 2 or 3 Krynzel's and Nuegebaurer/Rogers types in the first round.

 

Maybe if the Brewers would have gotten a first for CC and hand sewn up an additional first for Sheets they wouldn't even think twice about it and grab someone like Perez if his price has come down some as the reality sets in that the Yankees are the only ones throwing huge ridiculous contracts around and they aren't really setting the market price for all.

 

I see a guy like Perez with way more upside than someone like Mulder who seems to get mentioned a lot. I am not even sure Mulder can lift his arm above his head, there has been talke he may have to become a side arm or submariner. The downside of Perez is that he may be 4.5-5.00 ERA guy at a few million, the downside of Mulder is he may never pitch again or if does he may be a 6-7 ERA guy at $1 Million.

[TheCrew07]

The only problem with comparing Perez's age to Parra's is that Parra lost most of 2 seasons in the minors and then came up to MLB and promptly got hurt getting hit by a pitch. He hasn't logged nearly the innings of Perez and I still think Parra is going be the better pitcher next year. There just aren't many LHP with Manny's natural talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

The only problem with comparing Perez's age to Parra's is that Parra lost most of 2 seasons in the minors and then came up to MLB and promptly got hurt getting hit by a pitch. He hasn't logged nearly the innings of Perez and I still think Parra is going be the better pitcher next year. There just aren't many LHP with Manny's natural talent.

True, but Oliver Perez is one of them.

[endaround]

Except The Perez is almost entirely Fastball/Slider while Para is fastball, curve, change and split finger.

[TheCrew07]

And so did JDLR... it's funny End mentioned his pitches because I was going to suggest his secondary numbers have always led me to believe that he'd be better off as a reliever, well that and my bias towards pitchers that throw heavy sliders, I'm always waiting for their arms to fall off...

 

Parra already has better control and because of his injury history he's still growing into his role, Perez has been up since 2002. I've seen enough of Perez to be uncomfortable with his erratic nature... is he the guy that blew away 239 batters in 2004 or is he the guy who had an era over 6.5 in 2006? Apparently he's reworked his mechanics some, I'll give him his due there, I just don't see him being a sub 4 ERA pitcher year in and year out. I'd rather go low risk with a couple of reclamation projects than be on the hook for him plus a draft pick. He's going to resign with the Mets so this isn't really an issue but he's the type of a guy a large market can take a chance on, he's right on the border for me as a med/high risk type of player. Talent will only carry someone so far with me, much like Weeks... the talent is obvious, but the results often leave something to be desired.