Bill Hall

[ILuvDaBush]

To speak nothing of his defense! He was flanked by THE WORST 3B of the last 100 years, and a 1B who was once tried as a 3B to Braun-line results there. How was their defense last year? Thank you, Mike. As for Billy...you live by the deal, I guess we'll die by it, too.

[silversurferr]

Even if Bill bounces back and hits reasonable well, .260 +, which I think he will, thirdbase is one of the only positions to sneak in a lefty. Because of the need for another lefty, they need to give Gamel a serious look at third, despite his fielding inadequacies. And, if not Gamel, we are stuck with Lamb.

[3Putt]

Endaround, I know you're the stats guru so please tell me how you define plate discipline. Swinging at balls and watching strikes has been Hall's forte for some time now. As for the numbers a telling stat is his 3.5 K's per BB. Maybe that's a lack of skill rather than plate discipline but either way he's killing us.

[Baldkin]

You can define it how ever you want, but Hall has always been a high K guy. Before, he hit a TON of XBH's, Not many guys get 70 XBH in a season, especially SS's. Billy did that.

 

What's left him is his power to the opposite field. Last year, it seemed as though he was trying to pull everything, instead of letting his raw power take that outside pitch to right center (like he did the last game of the regular season).

[thebruce44]

We should just play him vs the Reds, Cards, and Cubs for the first half next year, then flip him at the deadline when he is OPSing 1.200.

[nate82]

Endaround, I know you're the stats guru so please tell me how you define plate discipline. Swinging at balls and watching strikes has been Hall's forte for some time now. As for the numbers a telling stat is his 3.5 K's per BB. Maybe that's a lack of skill rather than plate discipline but either way he's killing us.

Hall only swung at 26.8% of his pitches that were out of the strike zone. Of the regular players only Cameron (17.8%), Weeks (19.4%), Kendall (23.5%), and Hardy (23.6%) were better than Hall. Fielder was at 27.9% and Braun was at 34.3%. These stats can be found here.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure exactly what the out of zone stat is good for in this case, because it ignores the situation. Down in the count chances are that Hall is going to K swinging at garbage, that's was a pretty fair statement in my opinion. I don't think one thing has all that much to do with the other, in theory a batter could take 3 pitches out of the zone in every AB and still K on the 4th, which is right about where Hall is. What we're really discussing here is plate discipline, and Billy has never had much, in his best season he had 162 SOs but he BB & SLG for career highs in 63 and 553, in every other season his K:BB ratio has been 1:3 or greater and for his career he SOs 1 time out of every 3.69 ABs. Looking at Billy's stats by year his BB and SLG trend together.. they rise and peak together, and they fall of together at about the same rate. Unfortunately the Brewers have quite a few of those types of hitters right now (poor SO ratios) but getting back to Hall his SLG was almost as bad in 2008 as it was in 2004, his worst year statistically in his career.

 

There's no doubt Braun swings at a ton of crap, I wish he had Vlad's knack for turning those pitchers pitches into hits, he still gets his fair share, but some of his ABs are downright ugly.

 

edit. I should add that I realize that the out of zone percentage is part of fangraphs view of plate discipline, but I feel that particular stat is misleading, I probably should have used "pitch selection" in place of "plate discipline"

[endaround]

The point was while Hall has never had great plate discipline its what you can expect for a .260-.270 hitter to get an OBP in the 330 to 340 range What has killed Hall the last two season is his inability to hit above .260 and the fact that his ISO fell off from .204 and .283 to the .170s. Hall still takes walks, his OBP was 70 points higher than his BA last year but if you're hitting .225 not much good is going to occur unless you have incredible plate discipline. Branyan can do it, but you need that skill set.

[liveforoctober]

For some reason I'm excited about Hall this year. Kendall has said many times how much the lasik surgery helped his at bats, being able to pick up the spin on the ball better, hightens concentration, etc... (I know the response should be... "Kendall was awful offensively" ... but I think his fast start and Yost's decision to catch him 150+ games, therefore hurting him 2nd half help my claim) ...

 

Add that to the fact that we re-signed Lamb and traded for McGahee (sp?) ... and I think Billy comes in with a chip on his shoulder and turns in a nice season. I'm not expecting a 35 HR season or anything ... but I think he will be a contributor, rather than a liability which is what he seemingly turned into last year.

[logan82]

liveforoctober wrote:

but I think his fast start and Yost's decision to catch him 150+ games, therefore hurting him 2nd half help my claim)

No it really doesn't. He was up and down all year. He just happened to have 2 bad months out of 3 at the end instead of the start. When you break things down into half years and months a few good games can cause wild swings in the numbers. I do agree that Kendall played in way to many games. His OPS by month

 

.764

.600

.782

.492

.701

.593

I think Hall will have much better numbers, but it will be because he isn't hitting against righties and will have little or nothing to do with Lasik surgery.

[liveforoctober]

When I look at those numbers I see that 3 of his best 4 months were the first 3 months of the season. We agreed he played in too many games... which probably hurt his 2nd half numbers. Even the slightest of improvements in Kendall's 2nd half would have made his overall numbers acceptable offensively for the season... which is a big upgrade over his past few seasons.

It's cool that we disagree, but when Kendall says the lasik surgery helped him... I believe him. I hope it works for Hall too so he is able to bat against righties now and then and we can keep another lefty (Lamb) on the bench for later innings...

[logan82]

If he didn't have a hot first week of the season, his April numbers would also look pretty poor. I know what the numbers show, but they don't prove anything. Tiredness doesn't explain his May numbers. If he didn't suck at hitting May, his numbers would have been better.

[strawbossisevil]

A bad week or a good week can definitely alter the stats in either direction, but I don't think we can just throw those numbers out. He pretty clearly trended down the second half of the season.

 

I'd say it's probably a bit naive to think starting a catcher in his mid 30s 150 some games didn't have at least some remote effect on his offense by the end of the season. There is a reason why most teams don't even start their mid 20s catchers that much. Catcher is the most tiring position in baseball, and knowing what we know about how many games he played, I'd say it comes as no surprise that his worst two months came in the final half of the season.

[logan82]

That still doesn't explain why May was so bad or July when he had time off for the All-Star break. I am not saying that there was no effect on Kendall as the year went on just that we can't break things down by months or halves of the season and draw a decent cause/effect conclusion from them.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Hall has much better numbers, it won't be because he's not playing against righties. He played against righties in 2006 when he hit 35 HR. Prior to last year Hall wasn't terrible vs. righthanders. In 2006 he had an .846 OPS against righthanders and hit 23 of his HR against RH pitchers. Even in 2007, he had a .713 OPS vs. righthanders and only hit 23 points less in BA than he did against LH.

 

Bottom line is that when Hall's hitting, he can hit both. Two things got him last year. In April and May (not really a huge sample), his splits were more dramatic than they normally are. At the same time Branyan was unconscious at Nashville and the Brewers were desperately needing a lefthanded bat in their lineup. So Hall started getting platooned. That didn't help him as even facing mostly lefties in June, Hall hit just .164. Branyan predictably cooled off and Hall saw more time vs. both in July and his hitting picked up. He slumped a bit in August, and then saw his starts dwindle again and like most of the team he slumped badly in September.

 

To me the key to Hall ironically is Trot Nixon. If Nixon somehow hits like he did 5 years ago, Nixon is going to take some playing time from Hart and Cameron (with Hart going to CF on days when Cameron sits). That will give the Brewers that 2nd lefthanded bat in there and allow Hall to play on a more regular basis. I think the only way Hall gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter with pop is by playing 80% of the time (against all LH and the 3-5 RH starters). On days when the opponent has a number 1 or 2 RH starter, that's when I'd stick Lamb in there.

 

I think it behooves the Brewers to give Hall every opportunity to rebound in 2009. If he does, he can restore his completely damaged trade value while giving this team a needed boost. I also believe that given the dearth of experienced major league OF in camp, the Brewers need to give Hall some OF starts in spring. You never know when he might be more needed out there.

[hauser42]

I dont see Hall bouncing back very much. He is a free swinger and couple years ago he had that ultimate season and now he is playing to the level of player he is. I dont see him moving back to CF while with the Brewers, he did not look comfortable at anytime while out there. Yes it was one season, but for him to change back would hurt him even more. I recall a lot of people blaming his weak batting in 07 on him playing a new spot on defense and his ankle injury. IF you move him back does his bat once again suffer??

 

Hall's best spot is as super sub in the infield and from time to time roaming the outfield. His stick gets exposed with the day to day play, and hurts the team. His defense is at best average as he doesn't get good reads of the bat, which sucks because he should have more range with his athletic ability.

[Invader3K]

Trying him as a CF again would be a disaster. I really don't want to see him there again unless it's as an emergency fill in type thing. He's best served playing probably either 2B or 3B.

[bobskube]

Bill Hall's VORP at -5.4 was the absolute worst on the Brewer's last year.

 

I personally can't stand his approach at the plate. It is laughable. He hits some mistakes, but usually fouls them back and then swears at himself before screwing himself into the ground on the next pitch.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock on the Lasiks turning things around. I think many of us enjoy a punching bag on this team and this guy has been mine the last two years and will continue to be.

[Invader3K]

The frustrating thing is that he has shown in the past he has the athletic ability to be a very good player. I don't know if he doesn't have the mental component anymore or what.

[Tbadder]

Ya know the thing I don't get is that Bill seems so intelligent. In interviews he is articulate and obviously has a vision. It just doesn't translate at all on to the field obviously. I wonder if his stance is stopping him from fulfilling his potential which is obviously enormous. I think when the ball comes solidly off his bat it is more wicked than either Braun or Fielder. Oh well...another Brewer story.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bottom line is that when Hall's hitting, he can hit both.

 

Or the bottom line is that RHP can handle Bill Hall, and that he can handle LHP. Career splits --

 

v. R: .249/.300/.441/.741 (1,932 PA)

v. L: .278/.355/.493/.847 (782 PA)

 

 

That's a pretty clear platoon split, no matter how many small single-season samples you randomly extract. A .300 OBP v. RHP is just not something the Brewers should or will accept, hence Mike Lamb -- who's really not even that great himself, which tells you all you need to know about Hall v. RHP. A scrap-heap-nabbed LH bat is a better option than Hall against righties.

[joepepsi]

Ya know the thing I don't get is that Bill seems so intelligent. In interviews he is articulate and obviously has a vision. It just doesn't translate at all on to the field obviously. I wonder if his stance is stopping him from fulfilling his potential which is obviously enormous.

Except for 346 at bats (.303/.345/.529) in High Desert back in 2001, there was never any reason to think he had enormous potential. His career obp in the minors was .303! His slugging was .387. His first season in AAA in 465 at bats he posted a .568 OPS. That just flat out stinks. There was no indication in the minors that he'd ever be anything but a backup infielder. Only in a pathetic organization like the Brewers circa 2001/2002 would a player like this be sold as a top prospect.

 

To his credit he's played his heart out in the majors and had two amazing seasons that no one could have predicted. The Brewers made a mistake thinking fluke meant a new higher standard. I think his true level of performance is closer to his 2007 numbers. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy plenty, but he's too much of a free swinging hack to sustain his 2005-2006 level.

[ILuvDaBush]

He was also severely rushed while coming up through the minors. You could also say Alex Rios showed very little coming up through the minors, but he too was rushed and is now doing well.

[3Putt]

I had Lasik surgery and my name hasn't changed. Hall is a good athlete but not a good baseball player. I question his work ethic because of a few telling stats. He had 4 triples in 2006 and has had one since (after Branyan showed up). His baserunning yields the same poor numbers every year with about as many CSs as SBs. In 2004/2005 he had reasonable baserunning numbers but since then he's declined. I can't see how a hard worker in his prime without significant injury allows that to happen. He just doesn't seem to be working at his game.

[endaround]

Triples? Really? The most random of all baseball stats?