Fielder agrees to a 2 year/$18 mil deal, buying out his first two years of arbitration (reply #48ish)

[RU Rah Rah]

Fielder has been just as valuable as Howard over the past two seasons.

Yeah, looking at OPS+, they are about the same.

[Invader3K]

I guess what I"m wondering, if the Brewers offered Fielder a four year deal for a decent amount of money, would Boras automatically turn it down at this point?

[Fatter than Joey]

Fielder has been just as valuable as Howard over the past two seasons.

 

In the past 2 seasons, Howard has a 5th place and 2nd place finish in the MVP race, Fielder has 3rd and a 20th.

 

Howard has played on 2 playoff teams, one that won the World Series (in which he hit 3 HRs), Fielder of course has only one post-season appearance.

The Phillies also have a better record over the last 2 years.

 

If you go back 3 years, it gets even more skewed towards Howard with his MVP win.

 

Fielder should not expect to get what Howard got.

[fondybrewfan]

I would have no problem with this, at worst it gives Melvin some cost certainty. Plus I think Fielder would be a more valuable trading chip because any potential trading partner would also have some cost certainty.

 

I personally think it would be a bad idea to go more than 2 years because of the previously mentioned problems with his weight. Prince certainly cares about his money, there is nothing wrong with that, and this deal will perhaps put him at ease.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If Fielder gets 7 or 8 million this year in arbys this season, the natural progression would be for him to get 10-12 million next season almost regardless of how his 2009 season goes. If he happens to have an awesome season, there's the potential for his arby number in 2010 to be higher.

 

I think a 2 year deals makes sense for both sides - it gives the Brewers cost certainty, and for Fielder it gives him more money up front without buying out any FA years. Plus, they avoid having to deal with tearing each other down at arbitration hearings, and it gives both the player and the team some stability. With this deal it would make sense for the Brewers not to trade Fielder until his FA year (2011?), or keep him under Brewers control until he becomes a free agent and hopefully collect some good compensation picks.

 

Granted it doesn't in any way extend the time Fielder would remain a Brewer, but honestly he may be a DH only by the time he'd be a free agent anyway.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm not sure how or if the arbitrators can take into account the current economic climate since they can't really look at unsigned players like Dunn and say the market is down. They need to look at the comparables like Ryan Howard and actual contracts.

 

I know that they can't look at team's finances -- or the economy in general -- I think that they can compare Prince to the service class a year ahead of him and that's it -- I don't think they can look at what Teixeira recently was paid for example, or what Adam Dunn is not getting paid.

[Ennder]

I think a lot of people are going to be proven wrong by Fielder this year. He is a better hitter than he showed last year and it wasn't just gaining some weight gain that caused problems. He just had a slow start.

 

Yeah his defense stinks but his offense still has value, more than Howard in my opinion.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think you're right Ennder. Personal opinion here but I think he relaxed a little and wasn't really prepared for the season the way he should have been. His weight went up, his production went down, his defense didn't improve and may have got worse and he got distracted with things like salary and vegetables. Perhaps it came to easy the previous year, maybe his age showed some, maybe he was just going through a transition in his personal life but it just looked like he wasn't prepared for the season like he should have been. I don't think that will happen again. Young guys need to learn lessons. Some of them have to be learned the hard way. If a .829 OPS, 34 HR and 102RBI is the learning year I can live with that.

[zurch1818]

According to TH, it sounds like a two year deal is just about complete. Link

[Thurston Fluff]

In a conversation I had recently with Boras, he said Fielder had lost weight since the end of the season and is committed to a conditioning program.

 

 

Man I hope this is true. It shows he understands what he needs to do and is willing to work at it not just rest on his abilities.

[GoudaBrew]

Anyone else think TH's guess of $18 million seem low (I know he said a minimum of...)? Best case scenario is that Prince gets $7 million this year. That's $11 million for next year. I would bet Boras asks for about $15 million next year (assuming Prince's production doesn't fall off) I would think a 2 year deal would be closer to $20-21 million and there being little chance of it being under $20.

[Hammer]

Is it possible to have a trade for Fielder worked out and the Brewers are just hammering out the details of the contract for the new team? That being the driving force behind Boras negotiating a deal?

[sheetswannabe]

Lost weight could be 5 pounds for all we know. I would love to see him at 250 that would be good

[rluzinski]

The rule of thumb for arby values is 40%/60%/80% of free agent value. If Fielder is worth $7 mil this year:

 

2009: $7 mil

2010: $10.5 mil

2011: $14 mil

2012: $17.5 mil

-----------------

Total: $49 mil

 

If you use $8 mil as his current value, you get $56 mil. So, he might have cost himself around $3 to $10 mil to become a free agent one year earlier. Maybe that's still worth it to him. Who knows? Why should we hold it against him, anyway? Apparently, it's OK to do what you think is in your own best interests in the United States, except if you play professional sports?

[JJHardy7]

In a conversation I had recently with Boras, he said Fielder had lost weight since the end of the season and is committed to a conditioning program.

 

It really wouldn't take much for him to lose weight...if he missed a few meals he could be down a few pounds. If he's been working his tail off and eating right (not saying he is or isn't or any of that debate...just saying that's how conditioning programs usually work), it good be a very good thing for the Brewers and Prince's long-term in the bigs. I still have my big time doubts about Fielder. My big worry is that he gains weight and his trade value goes down, but I don't know how much damage he could do in two years. I'm very interested to see more information about how much or how little weight he has lost.

[sheetswannabe]

Maybe Fielder can have pants that fit this year. Thats a longshot though

[OOOverbay]

Consider me a skeptic until I actually see him on tv, but if he's lost a significant amount of weight I will be surprised and very happy. From this latest news alone, it sounds as if he's being way more mature compared to last year.

[monty57]

This makes sense for both sides. The Brewers gain cost surety, as knowing what you expenses are certainly helps when trying to build a budget. Also, they know that Prince could win arby and get a huge payout next year. I think if they truly are discussing $18-20MM over two years, they're thinking in the lines of $7-8MM this year, $10-12MM next year. That would probably be about what arby would cost. I'd assume they'd get a bit of a discount, as they are taking a risk by guaranteeing money over two years. I'd hope for $7MM in 2009, $11MM in 2010.

 

From the Prince/Boras side, they know they could lose in arby and not get $18-20MM over the two years. TigerBrew made a good point that they've probably lost out on some money by not taking the deal offered last year. Also, every player knows that they could get hurt or have a bad season. Even if Prince won arby this year and got $8MM, he could get hurt and miss a big part of the season. I doubt he'd get a big arby raise next year if he plays 30 games this season.

 

I'm really glad to hear this news, and hope a deal gets done. I was very worried that it would go to arby and get ugly.

[MessiahRp]

One thing I think to take into consideration is, where will the market be for Prince to get the huge contract he and Boras surely believe they're getting. I don't know that with the economic climate not likely to improve much the next couple of years and with the Yankees having locked up 1B for quite some time, the money just won't be there. Also I don't see Boston (option #2 for a big contract) ponying up that kind of dough for someone who won't be able to play 1B very well defensively... he'll be a DH and I can't see them blowing $100 mil for a DH. It was one thing to consider moving Youkalis when Texeria was the option because he at least can play 1st well enough... it's another to get essentially another David Ortiz to play 1st and shift Youk over.

 

Other than the LA teams who by the way have been rather frugal for the most part, there really isn't a big market option for him and I can't see other teams offering him the money he thinks he'll get.

 

It could be that Boras has set Prince's mind on a number he'll never achieve... much like he did when he convinced Manny to sabotage his way out of Boston and now will be lucky to get a $50 million deal.

 

Rp

[jjfanec]

Would giving Prince a two year deal like this make him easier to trade next off-season if we wanted? His salary for 2010 would be known up from so teams looking to trade for him would not have to wonder about what he would get in arby. At the same time the teams who would look at trading for him probably are not the teams that really worry about a guys arby numbers too much.

[Invader3K]

Personally, I almost think this two year deal makes it less likely he will be trading until before his last arby eligible year. Just a feeling. It's not like the Brewers should be in a rush to move him anyway.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Does anybody know how many runs/wins Prince costs our team from his bad defense?

[Ennder]

Fangraphs had him at -7.8 runs on defense and +23.9 on offense. in 2007 he was -7.3 runs on defense and +49 on offense. In 2008 he was worth $12.1M in 07 it was 20.8M.

 

I've seen other defensive metrics that had him closer to -12 or so. So roughly 1 or maybe 2 losses from his fielding.

[MillerParkSouth]

Haudricourt is reporting that a deal is in place, 2 yrs, $18mm. Good deal.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The hate for a 1B who will probably hit .280 with 40 homers and have an OBP in the .370 range is ridiculous. His defense might suck, but his bat more than makes up for it. To say his defense does anything close to negating his offense is absurd.