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McClung signs for $1.6625 mil, avoiding arbitration


TSack27
I'm not basing it just on his injury or his season last year but the fact that he projects poorly. CHONE has him with a FIP of 5.01, better than what he did last season but still not much more than 1 win above replacement. And thats the 50th percentile.
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He was on the 15 day DL at one point. I think it was July or early August, I can't remember specifically. It was blamed as the reason he struggled towards the end of the year, as he was trying to pitch through injury.
I know he was on the DL, but it seemed like more of a roster management and Suppan was underperforming move more than an actual injury to me. But I think Suppan is not very good now, so I am biased.
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I still don't get how an ERA in the high 4s "is not very good" for a bottom of the rotation starter. Most teams would love to have that production from the bottom part of their rotation.

 

Like I said, I could see McClung being theoretically equal to Suppan if they both had the same endurance going into this season. The problem is that they don't. Suppan has been consistently around 200 innings for most of his career. McClung is unlikely to have the stamina to go late into games and late into the season that Suppan does. Assuming, of course, that Suppan is healthy.

 

The projections are unlikely to have taken into consideration any sort of injury he had last year. I find it a bit ridiculous to say it was not a factor at all, and not something that should at the very least be considered when looking at his projections. Also Suppan's really bad months were in July, around the time he went on the DL, and September.

 

Before that point, he had put up ERAs of 5.19 in April , 2.56 in May, and 4.33 in June.

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Suppan always has a lot of ups and downs, that is just how GB pitchers with mediocre stuff are. For me his most telling stats are how he finished the season.

With just 5 starts to go he was sitting at a 4.49 ERA, .817 OPS against, 4.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9. His 06/07 numbers were 4.12/4.62 ERA. 4.93/4.96 K/9, 3.27/2.96 BB/9, .784/.801 OPS against.

 

In other words he was right in line with his past 2 seasons going into the final few weeks of 2008. Then he gave us a line of 8.44 ERA, 1.110 OPS against for the last 5 starts. I don't think he really slipped per se, he just either had a rotten finish or was trying to pitch through some tiredness/soreness because the team was in a pennant race. I'm not going to say the guy is finished based on 5 starts outside his norm at the end of the season.

 

Suppan is most likely what he has always been a 4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher who can go sub 4.50 with good defense or a little luck which makes him a #4 starter on most teams.

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