Rich Harden has small tear in shoulder

[TheCrew07]

Yes but what are you basing that on, run differential, because you're basically talking about 2 different things. The team can win more games than it should have if measured by run differential, but if the players didn't play to expectations it's also reasonable to think they may improve in the future.

 

I don't think run differential and an individual player's projection have anything to with each other.

[logan82]

Our third order wins was 86. I don't know why it is so hard to accept that teams can win fewer or more games than their talent should allow. If we were an 85 win team going into the season, it would be very easy to win between 80 and 90 games. Replaying the same season over and over again would net different results even with exactly the same players on each team.

[Ennder]

Our third order wins was 86. I don't know why it is so hard to accept that teams can win fewer or more games than their talent should allow. If we were an 85 win team going into the season, it would be very easy to win between 80 and 90 games. Replaying the same season over and over again would net different results even with exactly the same players on each team.

On the flip side we underperformed overall from a talent standpoint. We had way more guys have worse years than expected than better years which probably makes up for that.

[GAME05]

that no player exceeded PECOTA expectations last year (excepting CC, and I thought Hardy had) I consider something of an aberration, and I fully expect two or three players to reverse that and perform beyond projection. And I think the additional run shares they create should make up for the loss of Sheets in the rotation. knock on wood, but there's also nobody on the team now who is a particularly brittle player.

 

I'm also expecting this to be a closer division this year; I don't think the Cubs will absolutely run away with it, considering they have absolutely no bench and a lot of significant players with solid injury histories. not to mention a few players are starting to show some age regression.

[logan82]

Ennder wrote:

On the flip side we underperformed overall from a talent standpoint. We had way more guys have worse years than expected than better years which probably makes up for that.

True, but CC probably over performed more than enough to make up for most of that. He was almost 2 runs a game better than his career ERA and 1 1/2 runs better than his best 2 years. That comes to 2-3 games over 130 innings.

 

We also had a 28-17 record in 1 run games and were 12-8 in extra inning games. We had things break our way.

 

I just don't think that 90 wins is a good starting point if anybody is going to try to estimate wins for 2009.

[rluzinski]

As it stands, the offense projects to pretty good but the defense and pitching almost completely makes up for that. 81-85 wins is a good guess, IMO.

[Ennder]

True, but CC probably over performed more than enough to make up for most of that. He was almost 2 runs a game better than his career ERA and 1 1/2 runs better than his best 2 years. That comes to 2-3 games over 130 innings.

 

We also had a 28-17 record in 1 run games and were 12-8 in extra inning games. We had things break our way.

 

I just don't think that 90 wins is a good starting point if anybody is going to try to estimate wins for 2009.

But CC isn't on the team anymore so the fact he overperformed last year doesn't matter if you are subtracting his 2008 value from the wins. If you take our 90 wins and remove what CC and Sheets were worth last year(both roughly 5 wins) we are at 80 wins, assume Torres and Hoffman are even and that the Hall/Lamb platoon matches what Branyan/Hall did last year.

 

So we have 80 wins plus a win or two extra from the offense probably being better this year and then 2-3 wins in Gallardo and improvements from Parra. Assume Bush+Suppan is a wash. So as the team stands right now we are probably sitting in the 83-84 win range. If we add a Looper type we are in the 85-86 range, if we add Sheets maybe 1-2 more than that depending on how healthy he is. That is on the fringe of the WC race where a little luck or a breakout by a Weeks or Hart or Gamel or something or a mid season trade can push us into the playoffs.

 

If you want the more pessimistic case you would go with our 86-87 pythagorean wins from last year and call us in the 79-83 win range I guess, which gives us a range of 79-84 wins right now as a team which I can live with that opinion too even if I disagree with it. The people who say we will be lucky to win 70 games are the only ones that are really out in left field on things.

 

The math agrees with my general feel for the team. Right now on paper it just feels like we are a slightly over .500 team. Especially since the central hasn't really improved at all this offseason. The Reds made some bad moves, the Astros have tread water or gotten worse, the Pirates are worse, the Cubs are most likely worse or at best the same. The Cardinals haven't done anything but they of course still have Pujols which can turn a mediocre team into a .500 one.

[logan82]

I didn't estimate CC and Sheets at 5 wins each and thought that Gallardo and offensive improvement should make up for the loss of Sheets. I was thinking of starting at 86-87 wins with our only significant loss as CC. 82-83 and we probably pick up a few extra wins with a solid pen.