Rich Harden has small tear in shoulder

[jjfanec]

According to reports on rotoworld from the Sun Times Rich Harden has a small tear in his shoulder that requires surgery in some but can be healed by strength and conditioning. Larry Rothschild seems worried and Harden seems to think he will be fine. Rightfully so Cubs fans are freaking out about this over on Northside. If Harden does in fact need surgery the central could be very interesting this year. Now he could very well turn out okay by the beginning of the year but a guy with a long history of injuries having a tear in his shoulder is a pretty big deal.

[Ennder]

So once Zambrano goes down we got what, Dempster, Lilly, Marshall, Olson, Guadin?

[GAME05]

was anyone honestly expecting more than 8 starts out of the guy to begin with?

[jjfanec]

was anyone honestly expecting more than 8 starts out of the guy to begin with?

maybe none of us were but with the lack of depth the Cubs have they must have thought he was. They have Z, Harden, Dempster, Lilly and Marshall, but after that what do they have Guzman?

We lack depth too, but with the financial resources of the Cubs they should protect themselves more and I am sure they will try to pick someone up. However, I really question if they made themselves better this off-season.

[Rob]

part of the reason why they traded for Olson?

[jjfanec]

part of the reason why they traded for Olson?

I am not sure if I would consider a guy with a 6.87 ERA in MLB and with 111/90 K/BB rate a good depth guy. He put up nice AAA numbers but his MLB numbers seem to show is a guy with average at best stuff who got minor leaguers to chase but MLB bats have held off. He could be their depth and if he is that makes me happy as a Brewers fan.

[JoeHova]

Sad. Harden's like Sheets in that he's excellent when he pitches (even better than Sheets, really) but he never makes it through a full season. I always root for those guys to get healthy, but it doesn't seem to happen too often.

[sheetskout]

Handling Rich Harden is like performing surgery itself.

[jjfanec]

Sad. Harden's like Sheets in that he's excellent when he pitches (even better than Sheets, really) but he never makes it through a full season. I always root for those guys to get healthy, but it doesn't seem to happen too often.

Harden makes Sheets look like an ironman. Here are Hardens starts over the last five years, 31, 19, 9, 4, 25. Which is 88 total. Sheets over those five years (which takes out years of 34, 34, and 25) started 34, 22, 17, 24, 31. Which is 128. Sheets has averaged close to 28 starts a year over his career whereas Harden has averaged 17 starts a year.

[Thurston Fluff]

Harden makes Sheets look like an ironman. Here are Hardens starts over the last five years, 31, 19, 9, 4, 25. Which is 88 total. Sheets over those five years (which takes out years of 34, 34, and 25) started 34, 22, 17, 24, 31. Which is 128. Sheets has averaged close to 28 starts a year over his career whereas Harden has averaged 17 starts a year.

 

Not to mention Sheets usually pitches more innings in those games than Harden does.

[fondybrewfan]

Personally I think if Harden is out any extended period of time the Cubs might be screwed. They have 0 good trading chips to pick up anyone of consequence and it is probably pretty likely that Dempster is not as good as he was last year and Zambrano has been trending downward the last 2 years. The fact that their core offense players are aging fast and several have durability issues could lead to a dissappointing season for the Cubs. That being said, as their roster is currently constructed, they still by far the best team in the division. A serious Harden injury and underperformance/injury to another SP and they could be in serious trouble

[CheezWizHed]

So would that make the Cubs a likely landing spot for Sheets? I only say it so it will decrease the chances of it happening...

[MarquesJohnson2000]

A lot of the Cubs fans I know are still thinking that Peavy will end up with the Cubs once the sale goes through and Hendry gets permission to increase the club's 2010 budget to add him.

[JohnBriggs12]

This "small tear" wasn't news inside the Cub organization. It's why they occasionally skipped his starts. They have him penciled in for 25 starts this year hoping that by skipping every 3rd or 4th start, he'll be as effective as he was for them in 2008 (1.77 ERA in 12 starts).

 

The Cubs knew they needed a spot starter to fill in for 8-10 starts. Olson could be the guy or it could be an Angel Guzman, Randy Wells, or Kevin Hart.

 

I think the Cubs will hedge their bet on Harden by using Samardzija as a AAA starter rather than in their bullpen. Should Harden (or someone else) go down for an extended period, Samardzija will get the call as a long term replacement. If he's not needed to start, you'll see Samardzija brought up later to bolster the pen just like he did in 08

[owbc]

If Harden only gets 15 starts but is effective, it won't be a big deal. If the injuries reduce his effectiveness, then you have trouble.

 

I don't see who was going to catch them anyway--they probably win the division by at least 10 games if they are healthy. If Zambrano goes down and Dempster's 2008 turns out to be a fluke, then they might be in trouble, but that seems like wishful thinking for the rest of the NL Central.

[jjfanec]

This "small tear" wasn't news inside the Cub organization. It's why they occasionally skipped his starts. They have him penciled in for 25 starts this year hoping that by skipping every 3rd or 4th start, he'll be as effective as he was for them in 2008 (1.77 ERA in 12 starts).

 

The Cubs knew they needed a spot starter to fill in for 8-10 starts. Olson could be the guy or it could be an Angel Guzman, Randy Wells, or Kevin Hart.

 

I think the Cubs will hedge their bet on Harden by using Samardzija as a AAA starter rather than in their bullpen. Should Harden (or someone else) go down for an extended period, Samardzija will get the call as a long term replacement. If he's not needed to start, you'll see Samardzija brought up later to bolster the pen just like he did in 08

While I agree they probably knew about it, the quote by Rothschild saying he is nowhere near pitching off a mound seems to make it sound like it is pretty big deal. I am guessing they were hoping it would be better by now Now this could just be a sportswriter making something sound worse than it is, but how would we have felt last year if we found out Sheets had a small tear in his shoulder and was not pitching off a mound? We would have been nervous and considering Harden has had more serious injury problems than Sheets this is a big deal.

If move Samardzija to AAA to start who does that leave as their go to guys in the bullpen? Marmol, Gregg, Wuertz, Cotts, Hart, and Gaudin. I guess that could be good enough for them.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

I think one reason Cubs fans may be freaking out over this is that the Cub organization has a poor record for "accuracy" in what it chooses to reveal regarding injuries (see: Mark Prior and Kerry Wood).

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't see who was going to catch them anyway--they probably win the division by at least 10 games if they are healthy. If Zambrano goes down and Dempster's 2008 turns out to be a fluke, then they might be in trouble, but that seems like wishful thinking for the rest of the NL Central.

 

They didn't win last year by 10 games and they had some career years and few injuries. I don't see this season being any better than last and probably worse. They are going to be in a race all year long. Then again I loved Yost so what do I know?

[rluzinski]

Marcel projects Harden for a 3.0 ERA over 134 IP. That's worth about 3.5 wins over a replacement level pitcher (5.5 ERA). Olson is probably good for something like a 5.0 ERA in the NL, so let's call a Harden season ending injury worth -2.5 wins to this projection:

 

http://www.replacementlev...early_projected_standings

 

According to that, the Cubs would still be favorites in the NL but things would certainly tighten up. But because the Cardinals and Astros project so close to the Brewers (at least according to this), a Harden injury doesn't substantially increase the Brewers' postseason chances.

[DHonks]

He may be able to pitch through some of it. Remember, the Brewers signed Ben McDonald knowing full well that he had a partial tear in his shoulder, and yet they got 1 1/2 good years out of him....one of the better signings they've had.

[logan82]

Backupcatchers wrote:

They didn't win last year by 10 games and they had some career years and few injuries. I don't see this season being any better than last and probably worse.

They didn't win their division by 10 games, but we probably played a little over our heads in 2008. The talent gap is probably close to 10 games. With Harden out they are probably still comfortably better than any other team in the division. 6-7 games instead of 10. It is really easy to play 6 games worse or better than your talent level.

[Thurston Fluff]

They didn't win their division by 10 games, but we probably played a little over our heads in 2008.

 

I disagree. The Brewers didn't have a single player perform above his ability and a few below it. The Cubs OTH had several. If either of the two played over their heads last season it was the Cubs.

[logan82]

Sabathia played above his ability. We also won more than our share of one run games.

[PlayerHader]

Sabathia played above his ability. We also won more than our share of one run games.

That is different than playing above our heads. You can play below expectations (which many guys did) and still win more games than your scoring differential would dictate you should (which may or may not be the case, but considering our record in 1-run games is likely the case).

[logan82]

The whole point is that we won more games than we should have and to think we really had the talent to win 90 games again with that same talent is unrealistic. Yes, I think winning more games than we should have is playing above our heads.