Brewers draft plans

[craig712]

If the Mets were to sign Ben Sheets and we get a sandwich and their 2nd rounder would the Brewers be more likely to draft someone that may slip due to high signing bonus requirements? It seems there are guys like this each year that slip due to their price tag. Would it be wise or would it be too big of a risk for our small market club?

[colbyjack]

Based on the Brewers drafting history, no, I don't think any moves in compensation picks would make the Brewers more likely to pick one player vs. another. Just look at last year's draft. The Brewers weren't cheap, as they budgeted appropriated and were able to sign each of their extra, early picks for slot value, but they didn't go above and beyond to get a player that had slipped.

 

The Brewers typically sign a player or a few players in later rounds for above slot value, comparable to a bonus a player would receive in the third through fifth range. Steve Moss, Omar Aguilar, R.J. Seidel and Shawn Zarraga are a few of the players in recent years that signed for early round money as much later picks (I think Seidel was the highest drafted of that group in the 16th round IIRC).

 

Of course, everything could change since the team now has a new scouting director, but I'm guessing we'll see much of the same logistically moving forward. In other words, I'll believe it when I see it, as there seems to be a group of people every year that seems to think something like this could happen (and calls the team cheap when it doesn't).

 

As for whether or not it's a good idea, I don't think it would be any greater of a risk given the Brewers status as a small market club (although that could be argued with a payroll around $80 million), although spending more money on a player that has fallen may mean that the team has to skimp on one of their other early picks.

[SenatorShriv]

Are there any great examples of players that have fallen out of the first round because of their price tag that were signed (for similar money to their expected price) and went on to become high profile stars?

[colbyjack]

That's a great question SenatorShriv. Examples of such players include Xavier Nady and Vince Sinisi, both Scott Boras clients that received big bonuses as 2nd rounders. Luke Hochevar fell out of the first round in 2005, but was the first overall pick the next year. Players such as Daniel Bard and Rick Porcello were close to falling out of the first round a couple of years ago, but didn't, while Matt Harvey fell out of the first round a few years ago, but likely will be a top 10 draft pick coming out of UNC for the 2010 draft.

 

I'm sure I"m forgetting someone, but it's more likely to happen to a high school player, where college obviously is a huge factor playing against teams trying to sign players, but you don't see too many college draftees that should be drafted in the first round not. And of course, while Nady has become a solid ballplayer, he's far from a high profile star.

 

Joba Chamberlain fell out of the first round, although more due to injury concerns than signability, and he only signed for $200-300k more than a typical supplemental first-rounder would have received in 2006.

[DHonks]

The Brewers tend to alternate power bat vs hs righty. This year I think they'll follow last year's strategy for having lots of picks. They'll take a couple of position players they like, but will jump at lots of pitching, especially prep arms.

 

Of course, my sleepers in past years were Chad Robinson and Josh Baker, and they didn't get very far. I could definitely see us trying to land another Jeffress/Rogers, although an impact bat would be nice

[paul253]

I've read that college starters and prep catchers are the strength of the class. Any chance a solid college starter falls to us?

[brewmann04]

I would think that since most of the Starting Pitching is in the lower part of the Farm you might see some College pitchers taken.

[Tedaldtada]

I would think that since most of the Starting Pitching is in the lower part of the Farm you might see some College pitchers taken.

I'm sure we will stockpile young arms again, but I hope we don't just try to find more advanced, lower upside guys to fill out the top of or minor league system. College pitchers are fine, but I want them to be guys that still have plenty to offer both 'stuff' and potential wise. No Daniel Moskos picks please. I guess I just prefer HS kids with big arms in that respect.

[DHonks]

I don't see us taking any high college pitchers, because they likely won't advance any faster than the pitchers we have in R+ (AZ for EST now), A, and A+. We have a ton of pitchers under contract, and I see us focusing on some power prospects

[CheezWizHed]

So maybe do the revese of last year? One high-end pitcher + lots of bats.

[TheCrew07]

I would hope they take the best player available and not worry about pitching vs hitting.

[paul253]

I'd really like to see a hard throwing college starter available though that may be a pipe dream that late in the first round. I can see them taking a high ceiling high school outfielder. I agree about the whole best available player idea, as it has worked out very well for us so far with guys like Laporta and Fielder. But the positions I'd like to see us take, in order, are 1) 3B 2) CF-a potential leadoff type speedster like Krynzel or Brantley. 3) SP 4) 1B

[Mass Haas]

colbyjack, I have no idea where these Canadian players would fall in the draft, but if we see their names in June, this article will remind us of the Brewers' interest.

[colbyjack]

While the Slam! sports network is no longer around (or at least no longer has the detailed draft prospect information), Bob Elliot started his own venture, the Canadian Baseball Network. You can check out who he feels are the top Canadian players here:

 

http://canadianbaseballnetwork.com/draftlist/2009

 

Outside of people such as Doug Melvin and Allan Simpson, Bob is probably the biggest true fan of Canadian Baseball that I know (he also has a book that I've been meaning to read, the Northern Game, or something like that).

 

Anyway, outfielder Jon Symyk is 25th on his list, with LHP Mark Hardy at 28 (with a note that he's just a few wins shy of breaking Jeff Francis' UBC record for wins).

 

I honestly don't know too much about the Canadian players unless they have spent some time in the states at various showcase and/or tournament events. Hardy pitched at the '05 WWBA World Championship where he pitched in the upper-70s with a mid-60s CB, so I'm sure his stuff has improved since then if he's drawing interest from scouts.

[southpaw121505]

I would hope they take the best player available and not worry about pitching vs hitting.

Same here, if the feel the best guy available is a high school hitter, I take him, regardless of position. With that said, it would be nice if the BPA is a college arm.