Juan Cruz

[GAME05]

Does anyone think he'll ever get signed? I've been curious about where the guy might end up not because he's any huge difference-maker, but just because to me he represents the downside of the draft-pick compensation policy. But now as a Type A guy, nobody is going to want to give away a 1st-rounder for a set-up man. Anyone know if there's a certain date that if a player remains unsigned, the draft compensation expires? in a way, i almost feel bad for the guy.

 

Would he be a player that a team like the Yankees should go after? just because they've already signed higher-ranking Type A players, it'd probably only fall to a 4th-rounder they'd have to give up to sign him.

 

Seems like Sheets is getting to be in a similar situation, that keeping a 1st-rounder is getting to be preferable to signing an injury-plagued player.

[strawbossisevil]

It's Juan Cruz's own fault if he doesn't get signed. He knew how it worked when he turned down arbitration. It's the risk that a player runs when they turn down Arby and look for more dollars.

 

I think Cruz will eventually get signed, but likely for far less than he would have gotten in Arby. He took a gamble and lost.

 

Same goes with Sheets.

[endaround]

Sheets could sign a one year deal for $12m any time, he wants multiple years so not sure why not taking arby is this huge problem. Cruz's problem is no one want to give up a pick for a good but not great reliever.

[PeaveyFury]

Sheets could sign a one year deal for $12m any time

 

That's more your opinion than a factual statement. It seems like there's serious doubt as to whether a team would be willing to give that much money or their draft pick at this point.

[Yeti73]

Does anyone know the answer to Game's question? whether there's a certain date that if a player remains unsigned, the draft compensation expires?

[GAME05]

i was only thinking about how the draft-pick compensation might actually be hurting the mid-range players. maybe guys like Sheets and Cruz could have taken arbitration, but then they'll be going through the same thing next year. a FA is going to make maximum dollars when other teams bid, but these two especially have been forced into limbo.

[RyDogg66]

Cruz would have to wait until after the June Draft to sign with a team and avoid draft pick consequences. He could also sign a minor league deal, but if the minor league deal has major league terms (i.e. if you make the team you get a 3 year, 15 million dollar contract) the commissioner's office would likely veto it.

 

He and Varitek and Orlando Cabrera are in a world of hurt right now.

[Crewin06]

If I was a lower tier team such as Washington I would be stocking up on these guys. Ben Sheets, Adam Dunn, Juan Cruz. Sign Ben Sheets and Adam Dunn to 1 year $13-15 million deals and Cruz to a 1 year $6 million deal and let him close. You lose a second and a third this year but you are competitive and in the running next year for 6 compensation picks and that is if at the Trading deadline nobody wants Ben Sheets on a .5 year deal or Juan Cruz on a .5 year deal. Right now they have 7 players making 21.5 million plus a couple up for arbitration such as Ryan Zimmerman. They could easily add $30-35 million in payroll.

[Oldcity]

Yeah that's actually a great idea. They could sell them all off at the deadline and stock their minor league system.

[CportBadger]

That is a really good idea for a team like Washington. They might be able to get the 3 of those guys for about $20M total, so they could maybe toss Orlando Cabrera in there too. You lose 3 picks this year, but then get 7-8 the next season.

[monty57]

Graffanino was in a similar situation when he eventually accepted arbitration from the Brewers. He was pretty upset at the way the rules are set up, as it had happened to him once before. He knew no team would be willing to give up a first rounder for him, so he accepted arby and came back to the Brewers for another year. Since he got hurt and never played again, he definitely would have been better off getting a 3-year deal from someone.

 

The rules definitely aren't in favor of the lesser-skilled Type A guys. Of course, a team that finished in the bottom half of the standings could still sign Cruz, as they would only have to give up their second rounder. That's one way of gaining a little bit of parity... the worse teams will be able to bid on some good but not great teams that the better teams aren't willing to give up a draft pick on. The Washington example is a good idea, as they will still have a first rounder, and would "only" lose their second, third and fourth rounders if they signed three Type A FAs. Of course, they have to find people willing to play there, which has been their big hurdle to this point.

[logan82]

Graffanino was in a similar situation when he eventually accepted arbitration from the Brewers.

 

When was this? In 2006 Graffanino was unranked and would have cost the signing team no picks. In 2007 he was a type B and also would not have cost draft picks.

[endaround]

It was 2006 and he was Type A (he also got screwed with the Red Sox earlier). He had a 2 year deal set with the Padres but as soon as the Brewers offered arby the Padres withdrew it to keep their pick.

[GAME05]

I like that idea for Washington, too. and when you consider that the success rate of 1st rounders is only about 30% to begin with (something like 20% for the second round), you could probably argue that flipping the players later for decent minor-leaguers nets you a stronger farm system in the long run, so not just in terms of quantity.

 

but i guess to everything there's a flip side. I think of Kansas City with Juan Gonzalez and Reggie Sanders, that they paid decent money for both, seemingly with the intent of flipping them later in the year for prospects, but both of them get hurt and they got nothing out of them but a higher payroll. except now you're adding some high 2nd rounders in there, too.

 

man, it's such an odd offseason. a bunch of players demanding more money and more years and teams actually not giving it to them. so strange.

[PeaveyFury]

Yep, there's always that huge issue of potential injury or ineffectiveness, essentially nullifying the compensation. It'd actually be a blow to a rebuilding team to give up a 2nd or 3rd and then not get anything back if Cruz gets banged up later in the year.

[RyDogg66]

Still, you cant plan on an injury. It would be a blow for any team to invest money and draft picks in players if the players get hurt and cant play.

[PeaveyFury]

Still, you cant plan on an injury. It would be a blow for any team to invest money and draft picks in players if the players get hurt and cant play.

 

Absolutely. But the impact to some teams like the Brewers or Royals or Nationals would be huge, while to a team like the Cubs or Yankees, it's very minimal. If you're trying to rebuild a team, giving draft picks with the goal of getting more draft picks in a year is a huge risk. Especially considering that you're not only counting on them not to get hurt or stink in 09, but you're banking that some team is willing to give up picks for them next year when they're not willing to give them up this offseason.

[RyDogg66]

That is why the Nationals cant do it half-way. They need to sign the Dunn's, Cruz's and Sheets in one year and lose a 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Then if even one guy plays to his ability they should get two better picks back. The plan should not be to fiddle away a 2nd round pick and a 2nd round pick only on a Juan Cruz. Once you invest the 2nd round pick, each additional FA gets less expensive draft pick wise and risk is minimized. Not to mention of you give up your 2-4 Round picks you can invest more heavily in your first round pick and take the absolute best player available. Also, the Nationals arent that small a market.

[endaround]

Yep, the Nats have a huge market to draw from. And keep in mind they have no competition to the south until you get to Atlanta.

[CheezWizHed]

Also, the Nationals arent that small a market.

And yet, they can't shake that Expos mentality...

[sheetswannabe]

I think the Nats like to lose.. thats the only explanation to me.

[strawbossisevil]

Can anyone believe that this guy still isn't signed? I wonder how much he would cost, at this point, he has to be getting pretty desperate. I'm sure he wouldn't be in our price range, but the thought of having a Cruz, Hoffman 8th/9th would be absolutely incredible (although losing our only first round pick would be pretty costly).

[ILuvDaBush]

The seventeenth pick in the draft.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cruz might be smart to wait until after the June draft and then sell himself to the highest bidder.

[Nader Raider Tim]

http://msn.foxsports.com/...d-Type-A-free-agent-rules

 

If MLB does amend it's rules to allow for a sign and trade I would still love for the Brewers to look at trading for Cruz. I wonder what it would cost? I would, without hesitation, offer Cole Gillespie and PTBNL depending on performance.