Justin Verlander

[sbrylski]

I doubt teams really put that much into PAP ratings when deciding whether or not to acquire a player. Just seems like a rating system that singles out the most successful pitchers.

 

The most successful pitchers are usually higher because managers keep them in the game and they log a lot of innings. PAP is surprising accurate and a lot of calculations went into creating it.

[TheCrew07]

PAP is bunk. The system is flawed in that the best pitchers, those that are healthy and effective will always be the most "abused". Since pitchers get hurt all the time, and no one really knows why other than throwing a ball overhand is not a natural motion... this is just another theory. A theory that only appears to be accurate because sooner or later every pitcher in baseball is going on the DL for significant time, I give no credit for a system that basically has all the cards stacked in it's favor.

 

Once a pitcher has built up to the 200 innings threshold, teams are probably better off trying to maximize the pitcher's value while he's healthy. I find it humorous that people blame Yost for Sheet's injury last season because Sheets was up around the top of the league in PAP... he's was pitching fantastic for goodness sake why wouldn't he be? I find it hard to believe that anyone who wanted a post season appearance would go back and trade what Ben did in any of those games knowing that that the bullpen blowing just one lead might have meant no playoffs. Then when Ben gets hurt, which some might consider inevitable given his injury history, obviously it is Yost's fault because of PAP. I'm sorry that's just garbage. It's like blaming Yost for Ben pitching hurt, that's the decision of the training staff and the player, not the coach... I will agree that the coach has the ultimate decision but who among us would tell an All-Star pitcher in a contract year to sit down even he insists he's ready to pitch? Coaches only have the green light, they have nothing do with diagnosis or rehabilitation, not at any level of professional or college sports all the way down to high school. It's a liability thing, the changing disclosure laws have even made it so the players must a sign a waiver so the coaches can even discuss the injury with the trainer. What happened to Sheets last year has been happening to our minor league pitchers for years, it's an organizational flaw, not a problem with Yost. Maybe instead of Yost or the coaches being the issue our training staff is just below average across the board?

[homer]

You can dismiss PAP all you want but there is ample evidence that pitchers that appear regularly on the top five experience decline - oftentimes significant - shortly thereafter. The cause and effect can be debated but if I'm a small market team I don't ignore the data. Here are the top five in PAP for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008:

 

2005

Livan Hernandez

Carlos Zambrano

Mark Prior

Aaron Harang

Barry Zito

 

2006

Livan Hernandez

Carlos Zambrano

Aaron Harang

Dontrelle Willis

Jason Schmidt

(Zito was 8th)

 

2007

Dice K

Carlos Zambrano

AJ Burnett

Roy Halladay

Aaron Harang

(Livan Hernandez was 7th)

 

2008

Tim Lincecum

CC Sabathia

Roy Halladay

Justin Verlander (9th in 2007)

Matt Cain (9th in 2006, 8th in 2007 at ages 21 and 22 respectively)

(Zambrano 7th)

 

Is it just coincidence that Zambrano broke down in the 2nd half of 2008 or that Harang was just plain awful all year? Or that Verlander's velocity has dropped? Like I said, you can argue cause and effect and say Zambrano was just getting older or Harang was getting older or whatever, but if I'm a GM of a small market team (or a fantasy baseball manager) I think long and hard before trading for someone with a history of abuse.

[sheetskout]

I would do the deal including one of our catching prospects EXCEPT Lawrie. We just don't know enough about him to let him go right now. I also am of the opinion that Verlander will rebound this season though....

[Ennder]

This is a combination of multiple things with Verlander. In 2006 there was a good bit of luck in his numbers, he probably should have been in the 4.00-4.50 ERA range given how he pitched. 2007 he did pitch better but his FB% spiked and his BB/9 got worse but it was masked by his K/9 going up. 2008 the FB% go up again and his BB/9 go up even more but the K/9 regressed some and he had LOB% issues. If you look at xERA trends you probably see the real picture better, 4.33, 3.85, 4.56. All the innings he put on his arm in 06 and 07 probably did have something to do with the slip as well but he never really was an 'ace'.

 

I wouldn't be against trading for him but I wouldn't be lookin at him as a sub 4 ERA pitcher. It won't really surprise me at all to see him right around a 4.00-4.50 ERA again next year.

[nate82]

I wouldn't be against trading for him but I wouldn't be lookin at him as a sub 4 ERA pitcher. It won't really surprise me at all to see him right around a 4.00-4.50 ERA again next year.

 

As long as a trade doesn't involve Cain, Escobar, Lucroy, Gamel, or Jeffress I wouldn't mind a trade for Verlander. He would be a nice #2 to go behind Gallardo for the next 3 years. I believe this will be Verlander's 3rd year this season?

[yoshii8]

This will be his 4th year.

[vannzee]

Tigers fan here...

 

Verlanders ERA was increased by .50 due to the bullpen not keeping his runners from scoring. Thats not counting the times that Leyland would almost be forced to not pull Verlander due to a bad bullpen. The Tigers and Chuck Hernandez tried to change Verlander into more of a sinker baller. Im intrested in seeing what he will do with his new pitching coach.

 

Verlander is still young and durable. I am among those who hopes hes not traded. What would it take? Probley either Jeffress or Gamel. Jeffress brings back the pitching we would be giving up and is a power pitcher like our GM likes. Gamel could start at third, with Cabrera at first longterm in Detroit. Hardy or Escobar might not work. Dombrowski has already deemed Cale Iorg as the 2010 starter at short.

 

Alot of Tiger fans would love to see Fielder come to Detriot, due to who his dad is. While he could fit into our lineup as a DH if Sheff is released or traded, it doesnt make sense for the Tigers money wise. If your looking to deal Verlander due to his arbitration, why take back a similar but possibly more expensive situation?

 

Id say Jeffress, plus another A or B prospect, and a filler player or two would be a good start. If not Jeffress then Gamel, but then the second player in the deal would need to be better.

[vannzee]

As long as a trade doesn't involve Cain, Escobar, Lucroy, Gamel, or Jeffress I wouldn't mind a trade for Verlander. He would be a nice #2 to go behind Gallardo for the next 3 years. I believe this will be Verlander's 3rd year this season?

 

Then the Tigers wouldnt deal. It would likely take Gamel or Jeffress plus Lucroy or Cain and a Brendan Katin type.