Estimates on arby raises? Anyone?

[Roderick]

Assuming it goes all the way to arbitration.

I'm not sure how the players in the second year of arbitration work off from their prior year's base salary or if the current economy is any factor or if they are just use prior year salary data and tacking on inflation. So any help is appreciated. My guesstimates:

Bush - $3.25M
McClung - $1.5M
Fielder - $8.5M
Weeks - $2.50M
Hart - $4.65M

[endaround]

Fielder is way too high. If he gets more than $7m it will be surprising. He isn't Miquel Cabrerra or Ryan Howard

[jjfanec]

Is Hart in the same year as Hardy? If so I would be surprised if he got the money Hardy did. Maybe Corey's second half collapse is clouding my judgment. But Hardy plays a premiere fielding position and put up better numbers than Hart last year in most categories.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart isn't going to get more than $3.5 million if that.

 

Bush will get more like $4 million if not a little more.

 

Fielder will be in the $7 million range.

 

McClung and Weeks look about right.

[Roderick]

Fielder is way too high. If he gets more than $7m it will be surprising. He isn't Miquel Cabrerra or Ryan Howard

I agree he isn't worth that much and I know he isn't Ryan Howard, but that would definitely be a comparable they use. It is one year later and baseball inflation was probably 10% last year. How do the Brewers protect themselves from the Howard verdict? How low do you dare go and feel you will still win? If the Brewers go $7M and Fielder goes $9M who is going to win?

[Roderick]

Hart isn't going to get more than $3.5 million if that.

How much is an all-star game appearance worth in arby hearings? Anything?

[Fatter than Joey]

I know he isn't Ryan Howard, but it is one year later and baseball inflation was probably 10% last year.

 

Basically how the Arby's process works -- is that one side submits a number and the player's side submits a number, and then the Arbysnator, picks one number or the other, not some sort of midway point.

 

So, if this happened

 

Prince offer: $14M

DM offer: $1M

 

The Arbysnator would award Arby's to Prince, not because Prince's number is a fair reasonable figure, but because it is more reasonable than DM's.

 

To some degree, I believe that is what happened with Ryan Howard -- It was not that some Arbysnator thought that Howard was a $10M player, rather $10M was more reasonable than what the Phillies put on the table.

 

So in conclusion, I really don't think it is apt to look at Howard's situation as some sort of benchmark.

[monty57]

I believe Hart and Fielder are both in their 1st year of arby. As others have stated, Fielder shouldn't get Ryan Howard money, and I expect $6-7MM for him. It will be interesting to see what he makes, as he isn't a ROY, MVP or perennial all-star. He did have a 50 HR season, but that was followed by 34 last year. His two year averages on the stats I believe are important in arby are 42 HR, 110 RBI, .282 avg. I don't know how much they take defense into consideration, but that would be a knock against him. I really think that Prince could be a case that goes to arby, as Prince / Boras will probably ask for the moon and not negotiate down. It could get kind of ugly.

 

Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.

[Invader3K]

It wouldn't surprise me if Fielder is the only one who actually ends up going to arby. Maybe with Hardy taking a one year deal, some of the others will do likewise. Boras probably won't let it _not_ go to arbitration, though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart isn't going to get more than $3.5 million if that.

How much is an all-star game appearance worth in arby hearings? Anything?

All Star games mean nothing when you follow it up by going .239/.263/.396 with just 5 HR in 255 AB's the rest of the way.

[monty57]

In real life and in trade value, the All-Star game means nothing. In arby, I think they do take it into consideration. Kind of like winning an Oscar. It doesn't mean you're a better actor than someone else, but you'll probably get paid more for your next role.

[Roderick]

So in conclusion, I really don't think it is apt to look at Howard's situation as some sort of benchmark.

I know the arbitrator picks one number or the other.

 

Can the fact that Howard may not have won his case if the Phillies would have offered $8M last year come into play in the thoughts of the arbitrator? It seems like that is water under the bridge at this point and the fact was that Howard got $10M.

 

And if Howard's pay isn't thought of to be excessive, why wouldn't the fact that Howard got paid $10M come up in the arby hearing? They are so comparable in position played, type of player (slugger), and age/arbitration status that it would be absurd to assume that Boras wouldn't play the Howard card. Boras, "Fielder is just one slight notch below this very, very comparable player that received $10M last year". I would think a reasonable salary for my client for this next year would be $9M.

 

But I admit I know nothing regarding baseball arbitration, but in other types of arbitration comparables are used all the time.

[Roderick]

monty57 wrote:

Since Hardy was around $2.5MM this year, I'd expect Hart to be in the $2-3MM range. In his first year, Hardy was also coming off an All-Star season, put up better overall numbers than Hart and plays a tougher position. Hart's 22HR, 86 RBI, .280 batting average aren't that great of two-year averages for a RF. The 23 SB's each year will help him. I'd think he'd be paid less than Hardy made this year.

Makes sense. Tack on baseball inflation to Hardy's $2.65M voluntarily signed first year in arby, would put Hart around $2.9M.

[monty57]

Roderick, I think the Howard card will definitely be played, but Howard had won the Rookie of the Year award and was coming off a season in which he had just won the MVP. I believe that these awards (whether right or wrong) play a somewhat significant role in what the player is paid. I believe arbitrators look at two year averages and HR, RBI & batting average hold a lot of clout:

 

Howard 2006/2007 averages (hit arby year one in 2008)

 

HR 52.5, RBI 142.5, avg .292

 

Prince

 

HR 42, RBI 110, avg. .282

 

Prince's numbers are very good, but he would probably have had to repeat his 2007 numbers to be considered in Howard's category using only these stats. Now, Howard is older than Prince, and is in his prime years putting up these numbers while Prince is doing it at a very young age, but I don't believe age is considered in arby.

 

I've heard a number of players and GMs say that they hate going to arby, because basically the team has to rip into all of the bad things about the player. That's why most players come to a one-year deal before arby. As I said earlier, I think Prince is likely to go to arby, and I think it will be ugly. If he was upset about his contract last year, I think he's going to be furious after he has to sit in and listen to Melvin tell him he's getting too fat to play 1B and discuss his terrible defense and the dropoff in his numbers from 2007 to 2008.

 

The best-case scenario is that they sign a deal before it comes to arby

 

The probable (in my mind) scenario is they go to arby and Prince ends up somewhere around $7MM

 

The worst case scenario is they go to arby and Prince comes out demanding a trade. With his personality I think this could happen.

[fondybrewfan]

I thought I heard that the actual player doesn't have to attend the arby hearing as to avoid being ripped on by his employer. Prince seems like a guy who can hold a grudge so it would be an extremely smart move if he didn't have to be in the room at that arby hearing.

[reillymcshane]

Assuming it goes all the way to arbitration.

 

I'm not sure how the players in the second year of arbitration work off from their prior year's base salary or if the current economy is any factor or if they are just use prior year salary data and tacking on inflation. So any help is appreciated. My guesstimates:

Bush - $3.25M

McClung - $1.5M

Fielder - $8.5M

Weeks - $2.50M

Hart - $4.65M

Roderick, here you go:

 

Bush - $4.5 million - it's his second year of arby. Similar guy might be aaron cook - he got $5.125 after throwing 166 innings, going 8-7 and having a 4.12 ERA. This may have been an existing contract - so there is probably a better guy.

 

Hart is way high. He's due more like $2.4-2.5. Here's why.

 

Or Xavier Nady, two years ago, after a season of hitting 17 HR and a .790 OPS on 468 ABs, got $2.0 million.

 

Hardy, in his first year of arby, got $2.65, and he had a better year hitting, fielding and played a more hitting challenged position.

 

I'd argue Weeks is high too by using Hardy as an example. Hardy had a better year as a hitter and fielder, but got $2.65 million. I'd say rickie was due more like $2.0.

 

Jhonny Peralta - in his first season of arby - got $2.5 as a SS who hit a little less than JJ. just an example.

 

I'd say mcclung is good.

 

Prince I'd say is more like $6.5 or 7.0. I'd have to find a good comparable.

[CheezWizHed]

Do we expect any of these guys to sign before arby, like Hardy did? I'm doubtful that Prince will, but what about the others? The Brewers seem to put an emphasis on avoiding arby. When was the last guy to go to arby? 5-6 years ago?

[bork]

I'd argue Weeks is high too by using Hardy as an example. Hardy had a better year as a hitter and fielder, but got $2.65 million. I'd say rickie was due more like $2.0.

One difference in Weeks, though, is that he made over $1 million last year due to the major league contract he signed at draft time. So he's starting at a higher salary than Hardy ($400,000). Not sure if that will make a difference in arby.

[Fatter than Joey]

Do we expect any of these guys to sign before arby, like Hardy did? I'm doubtful that Prince will, but what about the others? The Brewers seem to put an emphasis on avoiding arby

 

I expect most of them will get a pre Arby's deal -- and Prince's case will get uber ugly.

[bork]

When was the last guy to go to arby? 5-6 years ago?

Actually, wasn't it Jim Gantner who was the last one to go to arbitration? I seem to recall that being mentioned.

[CheezWizHed]

http://roadsidephotos.com...ll/Arbitrationresults.htm

 

I found this that listed the Brewers arby cases (and all of MLB up to 2004) at:

'78 Johnson - Brewers Lost

'91 Gantner - Brewers Won

'94 Fetters - Brewers Won

'98 Mercedes - Brewers Lost

 

I remember the Gantner and Fetters arby cases because they were kind of ugly (kind of the end of the player's line in Milwaukee). I think Prince's will be worse considering how his contract renewal has gone the past couple years.

[fondybrewfan]

I am just afraid because it certianly seems like Prince is the kind of guy who can hold a grudge, if he loses his arby case he might punch out Melvin.

 

Congrats to JB12 on hitting the Bush figure right on the head

[reillymcshane]

I'd argue Weeks is high too by using Hardy as an example. Hardy had a better year as a hitter and fielder, but got $2.65 million. I'd say rickie was due more like $2.0.

One difference in Weeks, though, is that he made over $1 million last year due to the major league contract he signed at draft time. So he's starting at a higher salary than Hardy ($400,000). Not sure if that will make a difference in arby.

I don't think previous salary is brought into play. I believe it's strictly years of experience and performance for your position. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't think it makes any difference.

[tdeggie]

does anyone know by what date they have to exchange figures?

[bobskube]

Have to exchange by Monday, Jan 19th.