2008 Brewers vs. 2009 Brewers

[zzzmanwitz]

Even though there is still time left before the season, I know there has been some people that feel the Brewers haven't done enough this offseason. I just wanted to take some time to look at this years team (to this point) versus last years team to see just where we are at. Remember, these are OPENING DAY rosters.

 

Catcher

2008 - Jason Kendall*

2009 - Jason Kendall

 

First

2008 - Prince Fielder

2009 - Prince Fielder*

 

Second

2008 - Rickie Weeks

2009 - Rickie Weeks*

 

Shortstop

2008 - JJ Hardy*

2009 - JJ Hardy

 

Third

2008 - Bill Hall

2009 - Mike Lamb/Bill Hall*

 

Left Field

2008 - Ryan Braun

2009 - Ryan Braun*

 

Center Field

2008 - Gwynn/Gross/Kapler (Cameron 25 game suspension)

2009 - Mike Cameron*

 

Right Field

2008 - Corey Hart

2009 - Corey Hart*

 

Bench

2008 - Gross, Counsel, Kapler, Dillon, Rivera*

2009 - Hall/Lamb, Nelson, Gwynn, Nixon, Rivera* (Prediction)

 

Rotation

2008 - Sheets, Suppan, Bush, Villanueva, Parra*

2009 - Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, McClung

 

Bullpen

2008 - Shouse, Mota, Torres, McClung, Turnbow

2009 - Stetter, Coffee, Riske, Julio, Dillard* (Prediction)

 

Set up and Closer

2008 - Riske, Gagne

2009 - Villanueva, Hoffman*

 

 

 

Now if I remember correctly, there were people that predicted 85-95 wins for last years team. What I want someone to tell me how this year's team is any worse than last year's opening day team. With improvements from Prince, Braun (more experienced in LF), Hart, and Weeks. Maybe the potential for solid production in a platoon at 3B. The starting rotation is maybe a little worse than last year, but to me the bullpen is much more stable.

 

I would be willing to put this team on an even level with the opening day team from last year. Edit: I put "*" next to the player (or group of players) i thought would perform better vs their counterpart from the year before or after. I feel the benches are pretty equal.

[patrickgpe]

well offensively ill give you (since nothing has changed). We do need a craig consell like UI though.

 

The closer posiiton has improved. I think we will miss Shouse.

 

The bigger problem is that if Sheets doesn't come back we are counting on someone who has roughtly one full season of mlb experience to lead the staff and our #2 is someone whose arm tired in the stretch last season.

 

Also the bigger problem (and one that i have yet to hear mentioned) is if someone goes down, who do we have to fill in. We'd be relying on Villaneuva and really don't have options other than that. We need another starter.

[sbrylski]

Picky, but I want to point out that both Gross and Kapler started more games in CF than Gwynn did during Cameron's suspension.

[zzzmanwitz]

I will agree that there is a lack of depth in the starting rotation which i have noted in previous posts. I for one still believe that a SP will be added. I'm guessing it'll be Looper. That would move McClung to the Pen and probably Dillard in the minors.

[diener34]

The Question is...Who will be our Russell Branyan this season?

 

Someone that can spark this team out of a slump?

 

My money is on Brad Nelson.

 

Also, what do you guys think about the possible signing of Juan Cruz? He has had 3 straight decent seasons and is still available. It would cost us a first rounder though, which is IMO why the system is flawed when Middle relievers cost the same as a CC or Tex.

[zzzmanwitz]

My main point of this post is that I feel a lot of Brewer fans are jumping ship on this team when we had high expectations last year on a team that hasn't changed much. I've heard predictions of 70-75 wins and that just doesn't seem right.

[zzzmanwitz]

The Question is...Who will be our Russell Branyan this season?

 

Well, Russell Branyan wasn't on the opening day roster. I disagree with you on Nelson because I don't think he'll get PT. Now Nixon could be that guy, only cause he could get more opportunities.

 

Juan Cruz?

 

Keep me away from Cruz. Its not that he's not talented, but he's not worth a 1st rounder, especially since we may not get one for either CC or Sheets.

[monty57]

Good post zzzman. I agree with you that people are overly negative on this year's team, which is basically the same team as last year.

 

One small point however, is that the pre-season predictions would have included Gallardo for a full season last year with Villy in the pen, which would have made last year's starting rotation much better than this year's.

 

I also agree with Patrick that our biggest weakness this year will be when one of our SP goes down and we have Narron / Corporan / Gulin start a significant number of games. The signing of Hoffman limited our resources for a SP, and the signing of Lowe for $15MM / year probably put Sheets out of our price range. We need to sign more SP, even if it's only decent AAA insurance, or this promising season could go up in flames in a hurry.

 

The first thing of significance I heard Macha say was "our need for a closer is much greater than our need for a starting pitcher." In my book, that wasn't a good first statement for me to remember him by. He either overvalues a closer, undervalues starting pitching, hasn't looked at his minor league pitching "insurance," or was so spoiled by the fact that his SPs in Oakland never got injured that he thinks it doesn't happen.

[zzzmanwitz]

I guess I was under the impression Gallardo's status was known that he would be out for a while. Not the whole season obviously, but maybe him being gone for the whole year would have dropped expectations a game or two, not 10-15.

[Tbadder]

Well...

 

here goes. Kendall will be worse. Fielder will be worse, maybe significantly as he progress to to the mean of all giant burritos (seriously, I expect his obesity to be a significant source of Brewer woe). Lamb is way worse than Branyan. The starting pitching: come on--Soup's heading in the wrong direction. Maybe someone like McClung becomes a long term solution. Maybe Parra improves, okay. Closer should be a wash. Corey--what's up with him? Too much uncertainty there. We got lucky with Kaplar catching the last bit of lightning in his mediocre bottle; I'm willing to bet we don't catch similar lightning. Stronger divisional foes. Can't see more than 81 wins.

[zzzmanwitz]

TBadder,

 

You are looking at this incorrectly, IMO. I'm talking about expectations going into 2008 vs. expectations going into 2009.

 

Suppan was our #2 starter last year, this year he is #5.

 

Branyan was in the minors. Lamb/Hall platoon will be better than Hall himself. (even Hall himself will be slightly better this year I think).

 

Closer is a wash? I was high on Gagne (comparatively to the rest of BF.net), but Hoffman is way better than Gagne could have been.

 

Corey will definitely be better overall next year than last year.

[nate82]

Bench

2008 - Gross, Counsel, Kapler, Dillon, Rivera*

2009 - Hall/Lamb, Nelson, Gwynn, Nixon, Rivera* (Prediction)

I really don't agreewith your bench here. With Nixon on the team there is no need for Gwynn. Iribarren would do just as good as Gwynn would and Iribarren can play more positions than Gwynn could. Iribarren could play 2B, OF, and SS if needed. Gwynn would be just another OF and with Nelson, Hall, and Nixon already on the team the Brewers need someone who can also play more positions if needed.

 

Iribarren should at least be equivalent to what Counsell brought offensively to the Brewers last year and defensively it would be a slight downgrade.

[MJLiverock]

Going into 2008 it was fresh off of ridiculouslly good years from Braun and Fielder so people were riding the wave of their awesomeness. Hart and Weeks were expected to improve and Hall was supposed to be more relaxed playing in the infield again. Sheets/Gallardo were supposed to be the 1-2 punch with Bush reverting to his old ways of low WHIP pitching and being solid. Parra was supposed to break out and Soup be average.

 

Now we see Fielder and Braun may not really be a combined 100 HR duo (not bad players just not 1.000 OPS players either). Hart wasn't very good for half the season and seemed to get even worse as the year went on. Weeks didn't really improve either so now expectations for both of those guys have been tempered. Hall didn't bounce back to 2006 form and now has many more doubters.

 

The rotation is without Sheets, Gallardo is coming off missing most of the season due to an injury so people are unsure how many innings he will go and now we hear he may pitch in the baseball classic. Parra hit the wall about 2/3rds of the way thru the season. Bush was inconsistent and below many expectations. Soup was hurt and maybe aging quickly before our eyes. The cobbled together bullpen was very average last year and is probably about the same this year.

 

I think the opinion that this year's team is worse is a result of last year's performance by some players offsettinig the exhuberance of the 2007 results where players exceeded expectations. It really might come down to if you believe 2007 was "career year" type seasons for Braun and Fielder or was 2008 more the norm to expect from them. I don't think it is unreasonable to believe some guys like Hart/Weeks/Hall/Bush/Suppan will ever be as good as hoped for or that they will automatically improve.

[steve267268]

You folks and your predictions....

 

Anyone who can tell me exactly who is going to win every division this year and is willing to put big money on it PM me and we'll do business.

 

For everyone else, i advise that you stop worrying about "expectations" and just go into the season knowing we will probably be competitive.

 

Competitive enough to win the Central or a World Series, i dont know. But, trust me on this, it's much more enjoyable to take it as it comes and just ride it out.. wherever this team is going.

[Ennder]

Well the people who think we will struggle to win 81 games probably are going into the season assuming it is a lost cause, not enjoying it because we will be competitive.

 

There is way too much luck in baseball to ever predict things accurately. Still fun to try to predict things though.

[GAME05]

of course we still don't know if Sheets will end up coming back for a season. if he does, i think we have a better team than last year pre-CC.

 

it's been said on here before, but JJ was about the only player who exceeded expectations last year, so I'm fully expecting the offense to improve. Braun should continue to improve, I think Fielder should hit more HRs this coming season, and I think Hall has more talent than to completely duplicate last year's performance.

 

Parra's tired arm down the stretch doesn't concern me one bit. Milwaukee has been increasing his innings for a few years now and I think this year he should be more accustomed to pitching 180 innings. I also like Bush's potential that if he concentrated a bit more and cut down on the HR balls, that he could be a very excellent pitcher and find his way to 15 wins.

[cwolf2012]

Z, you're not accounting for Gallardo as part of the teams future expectations. He came back in mid-april, and was expected to pitch the rest of the season. That is what pushed us from an 83 win team to an 87-88 expectation. The 2008 starters you project there would not be an 85 projected wins team, not even close. Also, Villy was supposed to be a better starter than he actually was.

 

Also, it's been made pretty clear that Hart, Fielder, and Braun are not going to be their 2007 selves. That was one of the reasons the projections were so high going into last season as well. While I expect those guys to play better this year, the lack of a backup ace coming in in mid-april isn't there this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

The lineup that scored 750 runs (7th) and hit just .253 (12th) and had a .325 OBP (10th) hasn't been improved in any of those areas. Going into last season the expectation was for much more offense than that. The offense would have been worse had not Branyan given them such a spark in June.

 

Sure guys are capable of better years, but can Kendall and Cameron in their mid 30's decline further? You bet.

 

Yes they were in first in the WC when Sabathia arrived, but it was CC that singlehandidly prevented a 2nd straight collapse.

 

There's no rotation depth. The ace is a guy who's never pitched a full major league season. Manny Parra is being counted on to be a big winner and he collapsed late in the season. But he certainly wasn't alone.

 

The difference between last offseason and this one is that the flaws of this group are clearer than they were a year ago.

 

Nobody can predict what will happen with certainty, and every team has iffs. But this Brewer team has more iffs than teams that are generally considered contenders.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Suppan was our #2 starter last year, this year he is #5

 

Aside from Gallardo missing his first two starts, most expectations had Suppan as our #3 behind Yo. I'd put him as our #4 this year, McClung had some promising starts last year but is likely still the #5. I guess I'm not as bearish on Soup as the board. I think he was hurt at the end of the season. If he returns to his career norms he is certainly equal to Bush and a valid #4...it will never justify the $12 million, but he should be steady.

 

If the lineup can hold their own, with slight improvements from Hart & Weeks...the pitching probably puts them in the low 80's for wins. Maybe 2-3 wins less than last year's projections without Sheets and a lack of depth beyond the front five. They will need to sign another starter...even a #3-4ish one. Assuming these five make it through the year without missing a start in highly unlikely...that would at least allow McClung or Villy to fold back in if needed.

 

To get above the low-80's total towards the magical 90 win level will take improved run production and fielding...I could easily see that...and at least a Team ERA in the upper half of the league...a little tougher to see right now, but not out of the question.

[logan82]

People who were predicting 85-95 wins had Gallardo playing much of the season for us. He is left off of your comparison. Without Gasllardo I think the wins would have been in the 52-92 rage for predictions.

[Richie]

Manager

2008 - Ned Yost
2009 - Ken Macha *

[twobrewers]

When did Capuano "officially" get shelved for the year?

 

Did any of the 2008 projections have him factored in...

[Buckethead Brigade]

The Question is...Who will be our Russell Branyan this season?

 

Mat Gamel

[TooLiveBrew]

For everyone else, i advise that you stop worrying about "expectations" and just go into the season knowing we will probably be competitive.

 

Why bother posting in this thread? Clearly there are a lot of people that enjoy projections.

[brewtank34]

Manager

 

2008 - Ned Yost

2009 - Ken Macha *

Ding ding ding! We have a winner folks. Macha has the rep of getting the most out of his players. I'm not going to predict anything because I agree with Steve (#13) point of view. I'm just looking forward to watching some good baseball under the guidance of Ken Macha, Randolph and Sveum. I can't even explain how much more delightful of a baseball year it's going to be w/out having to listen to Ned Yost's voice.

 

As for the team....I agree that Melvin is not done yet...we will see another SP and move McClung into the pen. It's going to be a very competive team. The only thing I wish is that we can somehow get a better lead-off (lefty) guy and move Weeks down in the order....if that happens, we will be very competive.