Lowe to sign with Braves - 4 year $60 million

[JJHardy7]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3829521

 

I know it's not 'official' so feel free to move if it should. Just thought I'd post here since it may have an impact on Sheets.

[Ennder]

Initial reports are he accepted it.

 

http://www.ajc.com/sports...09/01/13/braves_lowe.html

 

This is much worse news than say the Bradley signing by the Cubs. Braves are now at least in the race for the wild card making it that much harder for the Brewers to get it.

[Fatter than Joey]

Is Lowe a higher FA than Sheets -- that is -- if the Braves signed Sheets would we get their 3rd?

[TooLiveBrew]

No -- looks like Sheets is higher, per an article from USA Today (11/6/08):

 

13. Ben Sheets 79.038

...

17. Derek Lowe 75.430

[Fatter than Joey]

Thanks.

[fondybrewfan]

Atlanta already has 3 new starters this year (Lowe, Vaszuez, and the Japanese dude), I doubt they are interested in Sheets any more. They really have the Top #5 locked up (Hudson, Lowe, Jurrgens, Kawakami, and Vasquez). They probably have starting pitching to spare right now with Campillo, Reyes, and Morton on the outside looking in.

[Milltownhooker]

They still have major holes on offense. LF, CF. Avg players locked in at 2nd & 1st. They need Franceour to rebound big time in RF.

[monty57]

No -- looks like Sheets is higher, per an article from USA Today (11/6/08):

 

13. Ben Sheets 79.038

...

17. Derek Lowe 75.430

Kind of interesting that Sheets is ranked higher, but Lowe has gotten a lot more interest. Based on the rankings, Sheets should get a similar deal, but I doubt he'll get as much. If he does, there's no way we'd still be in the running for him.

[pitchleague]

I could be wrong but I thought Tim Hudson had Tommy John surgury last year and will miss some decent time this season, not to mention his effectiveness and stamina when/if he does return this year will be questionable.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I know that Lowe is the type of pitcher that ages well, but a 4 year deal to a 36 year old player is still risky. Bad contract, IMO.

 

As far as the Braves, their rotation is set up nicely, but you still have to score runs to win and that might be an issue next year. Chipper Jones is never reliable to stay healthy and Jeff Franceour was sent to AAA last year. They're outfield looks pretty poor offensively. I seem to remember their bullpen having issues last year as well.

 

I do like the infield though with Escobar, Johnson, and Kotchmann, but none of them are outstanding offensively. They are just above average players.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Lowe, but 4 years $15 mill per year. I think it's overpaying. I would have only offered 3 years $12 mill. Good for him for getting that contract though I guess. Well I would assume this takes the Braves out of the running for Sheets which would be good for us.

[pretendastronaut]

I could be wrong but I thought Tim Hudson had Tommy John surgury last year and will miss some decent time this season, not to mention his effectiveness and stamina when/if he does return this year will be questionable.

 

Hudson likely won't pitch until after the All-Star break.

[Crew2323]

As far as the Braves, their rotation is set up nicely, but you still have to score runs to win and that might be an issue next year. Chipper Jones is never reliable to stay healthy and Jeff Franceour was sent to AAA last year. They're outfield looks pretty poor offensively. I seem to remember their bullpen having issues last year as well.

I'm fairly certain that Francueour wasn't merely sent to AAA, but he was sent down to AA. I remember how much press it got. I believe Franceour was quite upset about it too.

[monty57]

I like Lowe, but 4 years $15 mill per year. I think it's overpaying. I would have only offered 3 years $12 mill. Good for him for getting that contract though I guess. Well I would assume this takes the Braves out of the running for Sheets which would be good for us.

No matter what the economy, there is seemingly always some team that "has to have" a player, so they overbid what anyone else would do in order to sign that player. Common logic would make you think that it's their problem, and will only hurt them if Lowe isn't worth this contract in a year or two. However, this now sets the negotiating bar higher for plaers like Sheets. While it is good for us in the sense that there is one less team in the bidding for Ben, it is bad for us that Ben and his agent will use this Lowe contract in their favor in upcoming negotiations. I highly doubt we will pay $13-16MM / year for Ben, even though the Lowe contract shows that Ben is probably worth it.

 

The best example I can think of is the housing market. If you have a house worth, say $200,000. If your neighbor (with a similar house) sells his house for $250,000, now magically your house is worth $250,000. A 25% appreciation even though you didn't do a thing. Conversely, if the neighbor sold his house for $175,000, you just lost $25,000 in home equity / personal net worth even though you didn't do a thing.

 

Like a house, players are market traded commodities that are worth what teams are willing to pay. When teams bid up or overpay for players, it makes all other similar players worth more. With this signing, someone will pony up a contract offer to Ben Sheets that is out of the Brewers' range. I really hoped the Brewers would be able to get Ben on a one year $10-12MM contract when everyone was saying that no teams were willing to put any money on the table. Now teams are going to get into desparation mode, and I think the chance of the Brewers signing Sheets just went way down.

[fondybrewfan]

It does seem a little crazy that the Braves offered 4/60 when the only other known offer was the Mets at 3/36. That is almost comparable to the premium the Yanks paid to Sabathia. In dollar terms it is quite a bit less, but in terms of percentage over the next highest offer it is pretty similar. I would think that if the Braves offered 3/42 or something like that they would have gotten Lowe to sign.

[Invader3K]

I think part of this may be the Braves are trying to re-establish themselves somewhat, and this signing gives them a renewed sense of legitimacy. Atlanta has been thought of as a pitching team for years now, and this sort of re-affirms that. Maybe not the best reason to sign someone, but it could be seen as at least a side benefit.