Overmanaging 101

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Baseball today is different than it was 50, 25 or 15 years ago. I can accept that. But I do think there is severe over-managing in today's game, the last thing to make me think of this is the Brewers decision not to sign Gabe Kapler. I understand he may have wanted to play somewhere else, but the Brewers really made no effort to keep him and showed no interest. Then he signs with TB for $1 million, what I consider to be one of the best bargains of the offseason.

 

I personally think the Brewers reason for not signing him - that he hits from the wrong side - is ridiculous. So we have a lot of right handed hitters, big deal. Would you rather have Gwynn Jr., Trot Nixon and Chris Duffy, because they hit lefty? This is just the tip of the iceberg. I get sick when I see relievers who come in to face one batter, red hot pitchers removed from 1-1 games because "a lefty is up," 6-7 pitchers used in a game, etc. There's just too much of it in today's game.

 

As side notes, I am really displeased with the Brewers lack of effort in keeping Kapler, but even more so with the Shouse situation. He seemed like an obvious must-keep, and I don't understand why they're letting him get away. I would love to see Counsell back, but I suppose he's too expensive for a backup UIF with the current economic state.

[endaround]

Shouse may still be abck but the Brewers thought process is most likely that they can afford $1.5-2m for a LOOGY when they already have Stetter.

 

I think people are really overestimating what Kapler is expected to bring. His BABIP last season was .331 vs a career of .301 and his ISP last year was .197 vs a career of .152. Add in his large injury risk and he isn't some great deal. I do like him as a 5th OFer since unlike most he can hit a little but at the price the Brewers would be willing to pay they would ahve a lot of competition for his services.

[JohnBriggs12]

OldSchoolSnapper,

Once Cameron was brought back, Kapler was gone. He wanted a situation with more playing time. He wasn't going to get it in the Brewer OF. If you're going to get upset you should either be upset that Melvin spent $10 million on Cameron when he could have re-signed Kapler or that he settled for cheap options in Nixon and Duffy when much better lefthanded bats were out there.

By the way, balanced lineups go back decades. Casey Stengl platooned with the 50's Yankees.

As for Shouse, you don't give journeymen 40 year old relievers 2 year deals when you have a younger, cheaper replacement who outpitched him down the stretch last year in Stetter.

[RobertR]

Seriously, I think people WAY overrate Gabe Kapler. He's played in 10 seasons and is a career .273/.331/.425 hitter. And he's injury prone. He missed all of 2007 and couldn't even stay healthy as a 4th outfielder in 2008. He managed all of 85 plate appearances in the 2nd half, when the Brewers really could have used him with Braun's injury and Hart's struggles. He's more likely to post a year like 2006, when he went .254/.340/.354, than he is to repeat 2008. Or 2005, when he went .247/.282/.351. 2008 is his first above average year since 2001 and he's 33 this year.

 

The Brewers caught lightning in a bottle with Kapler in 2008, but thinking he'll repeat it is likely wishful thinking.

 

Robert

[kramnoj]

We don't know what the Brewers budget is for this year. If you just compare the production that Gwynn will bring for the minimum to the production that Kapler could bring for $1M, there's not much question that Kapler would be the preferred choice. But the overall budget has to be considered. That $500k savings may be the difference in what it takes to bring on another pitcher. It's choices like these that teams like the Brewers unfortunately have to make.

[Invader3K]

You're forgetting it "takes two to tango." Kapler seemed to want an opportunity to play more, and that probably wasn't going to happen with the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Kapler is just your typical 4th/5th OF, he just happened to get hot for part of his miniscule number of ABs last year. Hard to complain about losing him.

[CheezWizHed]

As others indicated, its hard to say what happend with Kapler. For $1million, I would have taken him back, but he might not have the same opinion.

 

For Shouse, I like the guy, but I would much rather have Stetter and a sandwich draft pick than sign him for $1.5-2 million... If he wasn't a B FA, I say sign him.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't understand how a guy as physically fit as Kapler gets hurt so much. I'm glad we didn't pursue him. There will be other options besides Duffy, Nixon and Gwynn that come up before the offseason is over. 4th OFers are a dime a dozen.

[JJHardy7]

There will be other options besides Duffy, Nixon and Gwynn that come up before the offseason is over. 4th OFers are a dime a dozen.

 

Until one of the starters gets hurt. If Kapler would've signed here for a million, I think it's a pretty decent mistake. The last thing I want to see is Gwynn being the number 4 OF or starting because of an injury. Maybe Kapler had no interest in playing here and that would be understandable if Tampa is going to give him more playing time. I'm more worried about the depth in the OF than Kapler I guess, but Kapler would be much more productive IMO than anything else the Brewers have for the number 4 OF. I'm still holding out hope that Gwynn is traded or DFA'd, but I don't think that'll happen.

[3Putt]

OldSchool,

 

I hear what you're saying. Kapler was a decent clutch hitter which should make him more valuable considering we didn't have many guys who could hit with RISP. In the end he didn't seem to get much credit for it.

[DougJones43]

I agree that I would like to see Shouse back for 2009.

 

However, you seem to be contradicting yourself somewhat. On one hand, you're saying you get sick when you see a reliever come on to face one lefty -- but then you say Shouse is a "must keep" player. Shouse's primary value is coming into the game to face one or two tough lefties...

[trwi7]

Shouse's primary value is coming into the game to face one or two tough lefties...

Ned Yost disagrees. In fact, his best value is intentionally walking lefties and facing righties. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Not really, because even though I loved Shouse, I hated how quickly they'd pull him out of the game. He was one of the most reliable relievers in a very shaky bullpen. Especially when you take him out because a right-handed hitter is up, and you replace him with Guillermo Mota ... Things like that just make me shake my head.

[nate82]

OldSchool,

 

I hear what you're saying. Kapler was a decent clutch hitter which should make him more valuable considering we didn't have many guys who could hit with RISP. In the end he didn't seem to get much credit for it.

Actually Fielder, Braun, and Hart were rather good with RISP. Fielder had a .890 OPS, Braun .862, and Hart .840. Hart was just behind Kapler with RISP in average but Hart had about 100 more AB's than Kapler did though. I believe OPS is more important with RISP than average.

 

If you go by fangraphs clutch stat in 2008 Weeks had the highest with a 1.25 the lowest was Hart with -1.28. Kapler had a -0.17.

[DougJones43]

Shouse's primary value is coming into the game to face one or two tough lefties...

Ned Yost disagrees. In fact, his best value is intentionally walking lefties and facing righties. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif Yeah, and look how well that worked out for him!

[mothershipconnection]

The Brewers caught lightning in a bottle with Kapler in 2008, but thinking he'll repeat it is likely wishful thinking.

 

Exactly. A replication of 2008 for a million bucks would be a definite bargain, but he's dead weight if he instead replicates one of his previous 3 MLB seasons. We could always slap Hall in CF in a pinch (yeah, I know he was already moved back to infield, but you'd think he'd at least prefer more playing time).

[trwi7]

Especially when you take him out because a right-handed hitter is up, and you replace him with Guillermo Mota

Shouse vs RHP: .301/.370/.452/.822

 

Mota vs RHP: .216/.281/.352/.633

[logan82]

Tony LaRussa comes to mind when people talk about over managing. He would put in 3 different pitchers if the batting order alternated lefties and righties, then throw in a double switch or two. This is in the early innings like the 6th. I don't go to Brewers/Cards games because they are annoying to score.

[MNBrew]

And he's injury prone. He missed all of 2007 and couldn't even stay healthy as a 4th outfielder in 2008. He managed all of 85 plate appearances in the 2nd half, when the Brewers really could have used him with Braun's injury and Hart's struggles.

He missed all of 2007 because he chose to manage rather than play. Your statement suggests that he missed '07 because of injury.

 

Kapler was mostly healthy in the 2nd half until he tore that muscle in his shoulder in the last few weeks. It's not Kapler's fault Braun wouldn't come out of the lineup even though he was hurt, Cameron got way hot and carried the club offensively in August, and Hart's slump only became magnified when the rest of the team's offense went in the crapper starting with that Mets series in early October. . . . Not a lot of PT was available for Kapler for most of that stretch, although you could argue he should've been playing more in RF whilst Hart's bat went frigid.

[sgtcluels]

It's best for Gabe to move on, he's 33, and probably wouldn't see any play time behind any of our starters baring any major injury. If I was Gabe, I'd much rather play behind Burrell then the likes of our pretty healthy outfield. Add in the fact that hes the wrong side of the plate, his play time would have been pretty junky.

 

More importunately, he can get more muscley and tan at the beaches around the trop. I don't see how any of us could be bitter about Gabe, he gave us his best year so far, and now is getting a chance to do something in Tampa. Ohh and it looks like Gross may be the Gabe left out down there..

[Oldcity]

Ned Yost disagrees. In fact, his best value is intentionally walking lefties and facing righties. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Man alive, you can't just spring this on me without warning. I almost instinctively smashed my keyboard at that memory.

[endaround]

I swear that is what got Yost fired. If Attanasio was in Philly for the trip I'm thinking Yost doesn't manage to second game of the double header.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ned Yost disagrees. In fact, his best value is intentionally walking lefties and facing righties. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Man alive, you can't just spring this on me without warning. I almost instinctively smashed my keyboard at that memory.

We're such a great support network for one another. I almost threw up in my mouth when I read twi's post.

 

sbrylski's signature is awesome.

[MNBrew]

Gabe Gross' time in TB isn't over just yet. He signed a one-year deal today, avoiding arby. The Gabe Count in TB's OF remains at 2.