Braun and Gamel

[Tbadder]

Thinking about the Prospect poll I was struck by two things. The three most dynamic bats in the organization (minor league-wise) don't have a major league position. Gamel is obviously going to be significantly below the major league average. Lawrie has a position in name only, and Salome is such an odd duck that many can't conceive of him holding down a major league catching job. Does this constitute a pattern? Are we a team that so favors bats that all else be damned? Is this a true strategy for long term success? It seems to have worked out very well with Braun. Not only did he make the transition to LF, he appears to be an above average defensive player with only a little loss in offensive production. But can Gamel do the same thing? I mean really. Not hypothetically. Are we doomed to repeat a season where most if not all of Gamel's win-production (in 2009 or 2010) is eaten up by a murder of errors? Now I assume that Mat's arm is pretty good considering he's at 3rd. Is it? It seems like he's got wheels, given his stolen base totals. Wouldn't it behoove the Brewers to move Mat to rightfield? What evidence are they waiting for? Does the organization really believe that he'll turn around his awful defensive record after three lousy years already? I know he's showed improvement every year, but realistically does anyone think it's enough? It just seems to me that the Crew need to move him immediately. His bat plays to our needs and Hart is a long term question mark after nose-diving in the second half. Why waste a year only to get what we all know is going to happen--a very offensively productive player who struggles mightily in the field. Is it organizational blindness that insists Mat can become a slightly below average as opposed to his present non-skill set? Not trying to be repetitive, not trying to be confrontational, but is this an example among others of simple wishful thinking? How many of you would move Mat now to ease his transition to the majors and maximize his value, and how many of you would stick it out at 3rd basebase given that if he did ultimately succeed the Brewers would fulfill an even greater long term need?

[logan82]

The stated philosophy in drafting under Zduriencik was to draft power, power arms and power bats. Fielder, Weeks, LaPorta and Braun were all high offensive upside with defensive shortcomings.

[CheezWizHed]

It sounds to me that Lawrie has a couple of possible positions he could play well, not that he didn't have a position, so they try him at catcher. We will see, but I'm not too worried about his D until we see him play.

 

Since Gamel and Salome were drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds, they really turned out to be great picks. Great bats, but so-so defense.

 

Personally, I see both with the ability to become average defenders at their positions, so I hope they do have another year (at AAA) to hone their skills. From what I've heard, Gamel's biggest failing is accurate throws to 1B. Sounds like he has a decent glove and range. If both Gamel and Green do make the MLB, you can always move Green back to 2B.

[monty57]

I agree that the Brewers should make up their mind on the future (and maybe they have). If they don't see Gamel as a future 3B, then they should move him. If they truly believe he can play passable defense at the position, they should keep him there. Personally, after this season I'd rather see them trade Hart or Prince, sign JJ long-term, move him to 3B with Escobar at SS and put Gamel in RF or 1B. I don't think JJ would have any problem moving to 3B (physically, I'm not looking at whether he'd want to or not), but if they want Gamel in a new position, it should definitely be done now.

 

I agree with CheezWizHed that there won't be a problem finding a position with Lawrie - they're just looking at how to best use his above average abilities.

 

As far as Salome, from what I hear he wouldn't project to play well at any position other than catcher, so they need to keep him there to see if he can become a decent defender. Hopefully that will happen this season at AAA, as we will have a nice spot for him to fill on the MLB roster in 2010. If he can't fill the position next year, it would be a stretch to believe that Lucroy or Lawrie would be ready by then.

 

Logan hit it on the head regarding draft philosophy. Jack Z really looked for power bats, and we've filled the roster with them. It's frustrating to many to watch strikeouts and bad defense, but we have a much better team today then we've had in a long time.

[JohnBriggs12]

Everyone should stop panicking about Gamel's defense. Baseball history is full of guys who came up as bad fielding 3rd baseman and turned into pretty decent defenders over time.

 

The Brewers own Mike Lamb is a perfect example. His first 4 seasons in the majors his fielding percentages (at 3rd) were: .913, .914, .914, .919. His last 4 seasons they were: .980, .940, .936, .963. Aramis Ramirez was thought to be a butcher when he was a Pirate and he's turned into a solid major league 3rd baseman.

 

Gamel had a .918 FP at Huntville last year. That figure was better than any Braun put up in the minors.

[TooLiveBrew]

Except that Lamb is a terrible fielder, and Fld % is an awful stat by which to evaluate defenders

[monty57]

I think people also have really bad memories of Braun playing third base and worry that Gamel will play equally bad defense.

 

The Brewers seem to think that Gamel can play third, or I would guess that they would have moved him to a new position by now. Personally, I really hope he is going to be a major league 3B. However, if he isn't going to be able to cut it (and there should be people in the organization who would recognize this) I would rather he learn a new position at AAA this year rather than in the majors next year.

 

I worry that the only reason they're not moving him is that they don't want to play their hand as to who they're planning on trading next year. If they move him to RF or 1B, how would that look for Hart or Prince?

[Tbadder]

Yes, I think you may be right Monty. Organizational desire (a gaping need at 3rd base) will lead to poor decisions (leaving Gamel at 3rd base). This is exacerbated by other needs (left handed hitting) and future possible needs (a hole in rightfield with the possible demise of Corey Hart, and the inevitable hole at 1st base with Fielder departure). In other words--wishful thinking. The real question is not what a ball player can player, but what a ballplayer plays best naturally in order to maximize his value, and to a greater extent, paint a more realistic picture of where an organization is at strength and weakness-wise. The Brewers, it seems to me, do not put in enough effort early in a player's career in making the right choices defensively. it may very well be that Gamel turns into a major league average 3rd baseman. But if that takes four years (like Lamb) and detracts from any meaningful win-total (like Braun did his rookie year) then the Brewers are not solving problems; they're spinning their wheels at best.

[monty57]

Is it kind of odd that your average little league coach tries out players defensively and fits them to the position that best suits their talent, but the Brewers will stick a square peg in a round hole because maybe in three or four years it will somehow fit?

[GoldGloveSS06]

I wonder why that draft philosophy from Jack Z.? Did he think baseball was going to go more and more to power hitters? Does it maximize a players value to hit homeruns and be in the spotlight all the time? Is it just easier to learn to play defense than it is to improve power numbers or plate discipline? Either way, I can't help but like what he built obviously. I think now we just have to trust our GM to make the right moves to improve our roster.

[logan82]

I think the thought process behind it is that you can't teach speed and power.

[TheCrew07]

logan nailed it.

 

I don't know if that's necessarily a flaw in the draft process making it a Jack Z issue, to me it's more of a Reid Nichols issue. Players in our system generally don't become better defenders until they reach MLB and to me that's a player development issue, not a drafting issue. I have so many issues with where the Brewers have had their prospects playing in the field I could go on forever. For example, I understand that Cain and Brantley spent most of their MiLB careers with true CF prospects, but why not give the kids equal time in all of the OF spots? Brantley never profiled as 1B, it was such a waste playing him there just to get his bat in the lineup everyday, it just didn't make any sense. It's almost as if they just did what was easy, instead of coming up with some sort of rotation that got every player experience at the positions they profiled best at. Cain may develop enough power to play a corner OF spot, but what's the harm in him moving around a bit in the OF? I don't understand how that hinders development in any way? Why wouldn't they want their players to be as well rounded as possible? If anything it makes position moves later on at the MLB level easier.

 

The Bryson assertion that the team is slow to react to injuries has been bothering me as well because I've been of that opinion for some time and have openly expressed it in the past. What's the deal with that? Who's ultimately responsible for that in the front office? Is it penny pinching in the truest sense because MRIs are so expensive? I guess the whole situation just seems backwards to me because Milwaukee relies so heavily on it's farm system. It seems to me that the more money you spend on player development and injury prevention, the better the long term health of the franchise. The more healthy and productive players they have, the more options they have. It seems to me that down the road the investment would pay for itself in better attendance/merchandise because the end product would be better. Not to mention if guys like Jones and Rogers were healthy there might not be a glaring hole in the rotation right now, so we wouldn't be discussing the merits of signing a FA pitcher which would save the club a significant amount of money. I use those 2 players as an example because their rehabs have gone so poorly. I have no evidence to prove they wouldn't have gotten hurt in another organization, but these aren't isolated cases either. It's just my gut feeling.

 

Gamel has started to make significant improvement defensively, I'm not willing to write him off before he ever fields a ball for the big club.

 

Is there a site that does advanced defensive metrics for MiLB players? I don't how else we judge defensive progress other than error totals, fielding percentages, first hand observations from posters like pogokat, and what front office personnel and coaches say about the players during pregame audio sessions. It's pretty difficult to take a sabermetric stance on MiLB players when there isn't enough data and many of these kids haven't quit growing mentally and physically yet. I was a vastly different person comparing where I was at 18 to where I was at 22, and I don't think I'm unique in that respect.

[logan82]

Do teams do a good job of maintaining their fields in the minors? Do conditions vary a lot from field to field? I have heard that field conditions can cause bad bounces and other problems that can make players look worse than they really are on defense.

 

I think a lot of the defensive metrics for major leaguers rely on play by play video so unless every minor league game is taped, they wouldn't be able to get good metrics. Also, my understanding is that you need several years worth of data on a player for the metrics to be reliable so by the time we would get a good idea of how good a player is, he would be to far along to make a position change using just metrics. I think we have to rely on our minor league scouts. Of course there are other people who know much more about defensive stats than I do. It is my goal to become more versed in defensive stats this offseason.